日前，美军袭击伊朗福尔多、纳坦兹和伊斯法罕三处核设施，美军事行动导致地区局势加剧。当地时间 6月22日，大量伊朗民众聚集在首都德黑兰的市中心广场，反对美国和以色列的侵略行径。同日晚，一 名已撤离伊朗、正在亚美尼亚的中国人告诉南都记者，她还有朋友在伊朗境内，基本都是断联状 态。"在德黑兰的朋友至今都联系不上，当地的网络很烂，断断续续的。" 6月22日晚上，位于亚美尼亚的中国人林女士告诉南都记者，她于6月10日抵达德黑兰开始旅行，13日凌 晨被空袭声吵醒，15日决定撤离德黑兰，随后一路南下至伊朗中部城市卡尚、伊斯法罕。 在伊朗期间，最令林女士最焦急的是当地网络通讯问题。据其回忆，当地时间16日开始，伊朗各地陆续 断网，18日至19日，伊朗全国都断网了。"完全不能上网，像微信这些软件都不能使用。与世隔绝，看 不到新闻，不知道局势发展到什么程度，也无法跟亲人朋友联系。" "我的亲朋好友知道我在伊朗当地的手机号码，他们想联系我，发现国际号码根本打不进来，短信也发 不过来。只有伊朗国内的手机号可以互相通话、发短信。"林女士说。 19日早上8点，林女士与朋友一同包车从伊斯法罕出发，驱车1200公里，历经14个小时，于当晚1 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core View of the Report - The short - term war situation has a risk of escalation, and the significant reduction in US API inventory supports oil prices. Although the IEA slightly lowered the expected increase in crude oil demand for this year and next year in its monthly report, the impact is limited. The market focus remains on the war situation. The domestic crude oil performs the strongest due to supply sources. It is expected to oscillate at a high level in the future. The short - term range is 550 - 560, and long - term long positions should be closed at high levels [3]. Summary by Related Catalogs 1. Daily Prompt - **Fundamentals**: Trump warned that the US patience is running out and urged Iran to "unconditionally surrender". He also said Japan was "tough" in trade talks and the EU hadn't proposed a fair agreement. The IEA lowered the average oil demand growth forecast for 2025 to 720,000 barrels per day (previously 740,000 barrels per day) and for 2026 to 740,000 barrels per day (previously 760,000 barrels per day) [3]. - **Basis**: On June 17, the spot price of Oman crude oil was $73.74 per barrel, and that of Qatar Marine crude oil was $73.62 per barrel, with a basis of 28.07 yuan/barrel, and the spot price was at a premium to the futures price [3]. - **Inventory**: The US API crude oil inventory decreased by 10.133 million barrels in the week ending June 13, far exceeding the expected decrease of 580,000 barrels. The EIA inventory decreased by 3.644 million barrels in the week ending June 6, exceeding the expected decrease of 1.96 million barrels. The Cushing area inventory decreased by 403,000 barrels in the week ending June 6, compared with an increase of 576,000 barrels in the previous value. As of June 17, the Shanghai crude oil futures inventory was 4.029 million barrels, remaining unchanged [3]. - **Disk**: The 20 - day moving average was upward, and the price was above the average line [3]. - **Main Position**: As of June 10, the main positions of WTI and Brent crude oil were long, and the long positions increased [3]. - **Expectation**: The short - term range is 550 - 560, and long - term long positions should be closed at high levels [3]. 2. Recent News - There are reports that Trump is planning to provide direct military assistance to Israel in the Israel - Iran war, which may involve the US in another Middle - East war. Iran has warned that it will attack US bases in the region if the US intervenes. The US has sent about 30 refueling planes to Europe [5]. - The air war between Israel and Iran has entered the fifth day. Trump urged Iran to "unconditionally surrender" and said he knew the whereabouts of Iranian leader Khamenei. The US is deploying more fighter jets to the Middle East, and some of Khamenei's main military and security advisors have died in the Israeli attack. Iran's network security command has banned officials from using communication devices and mobile phones [5]. - The Trump administration has shelved a cross - departmental working group established to force Russia to accelerate peace talks with Ukraine, as Trump has no intention of taking a tougher stance on Russia [5]. 3. Long - Short Concerns - **Likely to Rise**: The Middle - East war situation may further escalate, and the Russia - Ukraine conflict may intensify again [6]. - **Likely to Fall**: OPEC+ has increased production for three consecutive months, and the US trade relations with other economies remain tense [6]. - **Market Driver**: Geopolitical conflicts drive the short - term market, and the market awaits the peak summer demand season in the long - term [6]. 4. Fundamental Data - **Futures Quotes**: The settlement price of Brent crude oil dropped from $74.23 to $73.23, a decrease of $1.00 or 1.35%. The settlement price of WTI crude oil dropped from $72.98 to $71.77, a decrease of $1.21 or 1.66%. The settlement price of SC crude oil rose from 513.7 to 540.9, an increase of 27.2 or 5.29%. The settlement price of Oman crude oil rose from $72.78 to $73.15, an increase of $0.37 or 0.51% [7]. - **Spot Quotes**: The price of UK Brent Dtd dropped from $75.29 to $73.83, a decrease of $1.46 or 1.94%. The price of WTI dropped from $72.98 to $71.77, a decrease of $1.21 or 1.66%. The price of Oman crude oil in the Asia - Pacific region rose from $72.83 to $72.95, an increase of $0.12 or 0.16%. The price of Shengli crude oil in the Asia - Pacific region rose from $70.26 to $70.86, an increase of $0.60 or 0.85%. The price of Dubai crude oil in the Asia - Pacific region rose from $72.70 to $73.00, an increase of $0.30 or 0.41% [9]. - **API Inventory**: As of June 13, the API inventory was 450.595 million barrels, a decrease of 10.133 million barrels from the previous period [10]. - **EIA Inventory**: As of June 6, the EIA inventory was 432.415 million barrels, a decrease of 3.644 million barrels from the previous period [14]. - **Supply - Demand Balance Sheet**: The supply - demand gap and production data of OPEC+ from 2023 to 2026 - Q4 are presented [20]. 5. Position Data - **WTI Crude Oil Fund Net Long Position**: As of June 10, the net long position was 191,941, an increase of 23,984 from the previous period [16]. - **Brent Crude Oil Fund Net Long Position**: As of June 10, the net long position was 196,922, an increase of 29,159 from the previous period [19].

芬兰总统：我认为未来几个月乌克兰不会停火，我们将迎来一个（充满）战争的夏天。 ...