潘石屹这名字，在地产圈没人陌生。 从甘肃农村走出，和妻子张欣一起创办的SOHO中国，曾是国内房地产行业的头部企业，北京、上海的多个地标项 目都挂着SOHO的招牌。 但很少有人注意到，从2014年开始，他就悄悄开启了"卖卖卖"模式。 看他的操作就知道多果断：先是以52.32亿元卖掉上海两个核心项目，接着又以30.5 亿元转让上海凌空SOHO。 七年间，潘石屹夫妇从京沪累计套现足足300亿元，最后拿着钱定居美国。 别人还在市场里拼杀抢项目，他却早早把资产换成现金离场。 这波操作，至今没人能比他做得更干脆。 潘石屹在地产圈，是名副其实的"神级逃顶选手"。 他的第一次逃顶，是1998年的海南楼市。 那时候全国人跟疯了似的往海南挤，不管有钱没钱，都想抢 套房赚一笔。 潘石屹却没跟着瞎闹，偷偷托关系搞到了当地的库存数据。楼盘堆得跟山似的，根本卖不完！ 他没犹豫，立马把手里所有海南的项目全抛了，揣着钱扭 头就奔北京。 也就半年后，海南楼市泡沫"砰"地炸了，多少人血本无归。 那会儿恒大、碧桂园这些房企，天天喊着"冲万亿"的口号，抢地跟抢不要钱的白菜似的。 潘石屹又跟别人不一样，默默把北京、上海核心地段的物业全卖了。 有人笑他 ...

去年底我朋友老李买了套房子，那时候很多人劝他再等等，说房价还会跌。但他不听，坚持认为已经触底了。现在半年过去，他那小区均价已经上涨了 5%，老李逢人就说自己"眼光毒辣"。我问他当初哪来的信心，他神秘地说："我看了王石的一个访谈，他说楼市已经到了筑底阶段，我就觉得有戏。王石对 楼市的判断，前两次都准，我就跟着押宝了。" 提到王石，很多人第一反应是"万科"。作为中国房地产行业的标志性人物之一，他的一言一行常常引发广泛关注和讨论。近期，他又一次发表了对楼市的预 判，引起了业内外的热议。考虑到他前两次预判的准确性，这次的言论值得我们认真分析。 回顾一下王石的"预言史"，确实颇为神准。2007年，当时房地产市场一片繁荣，众多开发商纷纷加杠杆扩张，王石却一反常态地提出"不买地、不融资、不 拿新项目",被业内称为"三不政策"。彼时很多人不理解，但随后2008年全球金融危机爆发，房地产市场遭遇重创，万科凭借稳健的财务状况安然度过危机， 反而趁机低价收购了不少优质资产。 现在，王石第三次发声，他在近期的一次商业论坛上表示："中国房地产市场正在经历结构性调整，未来将走向更加健康、理性的发展轨道。软着陆才是最 好的结局，无论对行业 ...

房地产市场未来的"盼头"，在于地方政府做好积极的土地利用结构调整。专家建议"土地跟人走"，人口 在哪里，房地产就该到哪里。 近日，受"沪六条"推动影响，上海楼市交易活跃度提升明显。上海市房管局披露，9月，上海一、二手 住房累计成交207万平方米，环比增加8%、同比增加24%。 "原价1200万元左右，砍价后1000万元到手，我觉得比较合适。"上海市民陈先生9月份在上海市闵行区 外环外华泾地区购入一套198平方米的二手房，带花园，单价约5万元。他的这笔成交，看房时长仅两 周。 中青报·中青网记者注意到，与以往上海豪宅楼盘新房与二手房价格倒挂，一手房更加便宜，从而吸引 众多投资者入局不同，该盘新房与周边二手房并未出现倒挂现象，其周边次新二手房的挂牌单价集中在 17万元至20万元。"买房人可能只是单纯觉得核心地段保值，它值这个价。"一名主营该地段二手房交易 的房产中介告诉记者，随着这轮房地产市场的调整，现在新房与二手房价格倒挂空间几乎已经没有 了，"买房人回归理性，真正好的房子，才出手"。 几乎与此同时，8月25日，上海市六部门联合印发《关于优化调整本市房地产政策措施的通知》(简 称"沪六条")，从住房限购、公积金 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating The provided content does not mention the industry investment rating. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The new - home transactions in the real estate market showed a month - on - month recovery but were still lower than the seasonal level year - on - year, while the second - hand housing transactions achieved year - on - year growth, indicating a divergence between new and second - hand housing. - The automotive consumption recovered, while the movie box office declined. - The industrial operation in the production field was stable, and the infrastructure construction maintained resilience. - In terms of investment, the consumption and price of rebar were divergent, and the cement price rebounded from a low level. - Most commodity futures declined, with significant drops in coking coal, lithium carbonate, and glass. - The central government highly concerned about the continuously pressured real estate market. It was expected that the real estate policy toolbox might be further opened, but the probability of a large - scale stimulus was low. Instead, the market would achieve a new balance through policy support [1]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Demand - New - home transactions increased month - on - month but decreased year - on - year. As of the week ending August 22, the transaction area of commercial housing in 20 cities was 1.745 million square meters, up 10% month - on - month and down 26% year - on - year, significantly lower than the seasonal level. Second - hand housing transactions in key cities mostly increased month - on - month and year - on - year. - Automotive consumption increased week - on - week, while movie - going consumption increased year - on - year. The national migration scale index decreased week - on - week, and subway ridership declined marginally [2][12]. 3.2 Production - In the mid - and upstream sectors, the blast furnace operating rate in Tangshan and the rebar operating rate remained flat week - on - week. The PTA operating rate decreased by 0.7 pct to 75.1%, the operating rate of polyester filament in the Jiangsu and Zhejiang regions increased by 0.9 pct to 91.4%, and the operating rate of petroleum asphalt plants decreased by 2.2 pct to 30.7%. - In the downstream sector, the operating rates of all - steel and semi - steel tires for automobiles increased, and the semi - steel tire operating rate was still at a seasonal high [49]. 3.3 Investment - The apparent consumption of rebar recovered, but the rebar price decreased week - on - week. As of the week ending August 22, the apparent consumption of rebar increased by 2.6% to 1.948 million tons, and the rebar price decreased by 1.8% to 3,346.2 yuan/ton. - The cement price increased by 1.6% to 105.1 points week - on - week. As of the week ending August 15 (latest data), the cement shipping rate remained basically flat at 40.1%, and the cement inventory ratio decreased by 1.2 pct to 61.6% [64]. 3.4 Trade - In terms of exports, the container throughput at ports decreased by 0.6% week - on - week, and the CCFI composite index decreased by 1.5% week - on - week. The freight rates of European, West - American, and East - American routes decreased week - on - week. The BDI index also decreased by 4.1% week - on - week. - In terms of imports, the CICFI composite index decreased by 1.0% week - on - week [73]. 3.5 Price - The agricultural product price index increased by 0.8% week - on - week. The pork price decreased by 0.4% week - on - week, while the egg price increased by 1.1% week - on - week, the vegetable price increased by 2.5% week - on - week, and the fruit price decreased by 0.8% week - on - week. - The Nanhua industrial products price index decreased by 1.4% week - on - week. The spot price of Brent crude oil remained flat week - on - week, the COMEX gold futures price decreased by 0.2% week - on - week, and the LME copper spot price decreased by 0.5% week - on - week. Most commodity futures declined, with asphalt, caustic soda, and industrial silicon having the highest increases, and coking coal, lithium carbonate, and glass having the largest decreases [6][83]. 3.6 Interest - Bearing Bond Tracking - Next week (August 25 - 29), the planned issuance of interest - bearing bonds is 382.6 billion yuan, with a net financing of - 133.4 billion yuan. Among them, the planned issuance of treasury bonds is 0 billion yuan, with a net financing of - 237.1 billion yuan; the planned issuance of local bonds is 351.6 billion yuan, with a net financing of 243.7 billion yuan; the planned issuance of policy - bank financial bonds is 31 billion yuan, with a net financing of - 140 billion yuan. - As of August 22, the cumulative issuance progress of replacement bonds this year was 96.7%, the cumulative issuance progress of new general bonds was 73.2%, and the cumulative issuance progress of new special bonds was 69.9% [7][106]. 3.7 Policy Weekly Observation - The government emphasized taking effective measures to consolidate the stabilization of the real estate market, such as promoting urban renewal, renovating urban villages and dilapidated houses, and releasing improvement - oriented housing demand. - Other policies included regulating the construction and operation of PPP projects, exempting personal income tax on childcare subsidies, conducting MLF operations, standardizing the photovoltaic industry competition order, etc. [117]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article suggests that the real estate market is undergoing a significant transformation, with predictions from industry leaders like Wang Shi indicating a potential "historical shift" in the market dynamics [1][4] - Data indicates a downward trend in housing prices, with significant drops observed in various cities. For instance, in Beijing, the price of a certain property fell by 23%, while in Shanghai, prices dropped from 96,000 yuan per square meter to 58,000 yuan per square meter [1][2] - Despite the decline in prices, homeownership remains a challenge for ordinary people, as the required down payment and income levels create barriers. For example, a 30% down payment in Beijing still requires 1.5 million yuan in cash [1][2] Group 2 - Wang Shi predicts a major reshuffle in the real estate market, emphasizing that high-debt players will likely exit the market. He cites Vanke's projected loss of 49.5 billion yuan in 2024 and a debt of 361.2 billion yuan as evidence of the industry's struggles [2][4] - Wang Shi expresses confidence in a soft landing for the real estate market, suggesting a 3-5 year adjustment period. His optimism is based on supportive policies and ongoing demand, particularly from the large population and annual influx of graduates [4][5] - Ordinary individuals are advised to prepare for continued price declines and potential asset shrinkage. The article highlights that real estate constitutes 77% of household assets, and families should diversify their investments to mitigate risks [5][6] Group 3 - The article emphasizes the importance of adapting to the changing real estate landscape, recommending the sale of underperforming properties, particularly in less developed areas. For instance, properties in Langfang have seen price drops of 61% [6][7] - It is suggested that families should be cautious with older properties, as those over 30 years old in Guangzhou have depreciated by 40% in three years. Conversely, quality properties in core areas may still hold value [6][7] - The conclusion stresses the need for individuals to recognize the shifting market dynamics to avoid significant financial losses, urging timely adjustments to investment strategies [7]