房地产：2026 行业展望及投资策略更新 20251124 摘要 中国房地产市场自二季度降温，房价回落至 2024 年 9 月前水平，新房 交易量同比跌幅扩大，二手房交易量环比走弱，土地市场溢价率低于 5%。市场复苏需修复房价收入比偏高和库存过大问题，并结合宽松货币 政策。 在中性情景下，预计总住房交易量将进一步收窄至-5%左右，新开工面 积同比下降 16%，房地产投资同比跌幅约 15%。若政策定向解决周期 堵点，如存量住房收储、降息等，市场或迎来更积极发展。 当前房地产市场处于筑底阶段，人均一二手房交易套数已进入底部区间， 预计未来 1-2 年内仍有小幅下跌。城市改造在激发需求方面更具潜力， 但受土地市场流动性限制，效果存在不确定性。 头部主流房企股价相对于净清算价值折让幅度超过 40%，处于中偏深水 平。对 2026、2027 年房价假设为两位数幅度下滑，预期较为保守。预 计 2027 年开始利润反弹，具体斜率取决于 2026 年房价变化。 短期内对地产股走势保持审慎，明年二季度后宏观经济或有积极进展， 有望看到拐点并进行贝塔投资。2025 年商业地产表现良好，受益于同 店零售额增长和长期资本寻求高股息回 ...

Group 1 - The company has released its latest top investment picks for October 2025, emphasizing the timeliness of joining to access these opportunities [1] - The company invests significant resources, including thousands of hours and over $100,000 annually, into researching profitable investment opportunities [1] - The company offers real estate strategies at a fraction of the cost, indicating a focus on affordability for its members [1] Group 2 - The company's approach has garnered over 500 five-star reviews from satisfied members, highlighting the effectiveness of its investment strategies [2] - There is a call to action for potential members to join now to start maximizing their returns, suggesting a sense of urgency [2]

Core Insights - The Australian commercial real estate market is experiencing significant structural differentiation, with core asset categories that possess scarcity and anti-cyclical characteristics becoming the focus of capital pursuit [1] - High-quality street retail properties in Australia maintain historically low vacancy rates, with Sydney's core area below 3%, and rental growth outpacing inflation, indicating resilience driven by rigid demand [1][11] - The private credit market is expanding, with non-bank institutions' quarterly lending volume increasing by 23% year-on-year, reflecting alternative opportunities following traditional banks' reduced exposure [1] Company Overview - Initium Capital is an integrated real estate investment management firm co-founded by family offices, focusing on commercial real estate, private credit, and development investment opportunities [2][7][8] - The firm was established in 2021 and is backed by the Huang family office and the Hayson family, which has a strong background in real estate development [7] Investment Strategy - Initium Capital targets segments with limited supply and rigid demand, constructing a portfolio that combines cash flow defensiveness and appreciation potential [1][11] - The firm employs a low-leverage strategy, focusing on high-quality, hard-to-replicate assets, aiming to provide stable income and long-term capital appreciation [14] Private Credit Strategy - Private credit has become a significant asset allocation direction for family offices and high-net-worth individuals in Australia, filling the financing gap left by traditional banks [16][21] - Initium's private credit strategy focuses on high-quality loans backed by core real estate assets, offering flexible interest payment structures and strong collateral protection [18][21] Development Strategy - Initium's development strategy emphasizes high-quality, highly restricted market projects, aiming for excess returns while controlling risks [23][26] - The Bondi Beach mixed-use development project exemplifies this strategy, targeting a 27% internal rate of return (IRR) over four years, with a net yield of approximately 25% [26][28] Market Outlook - The company maintains a positive outlook on the Australian real estate market, anticipating potential interest rate cuts by the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) that could boost property asset valuations [31] - Australia has solidified its position as a global capital safe haven, attracting significant capital inflows and high-net-worth individuals, further enhancing demand and liquidity in the high-end market [31][32]