Investment Rating - The report rates the real estate industry as "Outperform" compared to the market [32] Core Views - The monthly sales decline in the real estate sector has narrowed due to a low base and new policies in first-tier cities, but overall transactions remain sluggish, with cumulative sales decline further expanding [2] - The report anticipates a continued pressure on the real estate market due to high sales bases from the previous year, weak consumer confidence, and ongoing inventory issues [5] Summary by Sections 1. Property Sales - In September, the sales area was 85.31 million square meters, with a year-on-year decline of 10.5%, slightly narrowing from August's decline of 10.6%. The sales amount was 802.5 billion yuan, down 11.8% year-on-year, but the decline narrowed by 2.2 percentage points from August [2][6] - The average selling price of commercial housing in September was 9,407 yuan per square meter, down 0.8% month-on-month and 1.4% year-on-year, with the decline narrowing by 2.4 percentage points from August [8] - Cumulative sales from January to September showed a decline of 5.5% in area and 7.9% in sales amount compared to the same period last year [2] 2. Inventory of Commercial Housing - As of the end of September, the broad inventory of commercial housing was 1.58 billion square meters, with a year-on-year decrease of 16.7%. The de-stocking cycle was 25.8 months [5] - The current housing inventory accounted for 25.3% of the total inventory, reflecting an increase in pressure [5] 3. Real Estate Development Investment - In September, the development investment amount was 739.7 billion yuan, down 21.3% year-on-year, with the decline expanding from August [10] - The new construction area was 55.98 million square meters, down 14.4% year-on-year, marking the lowest level since 2006 [18] - Cumulative development investment from January to September was 6.77 trillion yuan, down 13.9% year-on-year [5] 4. Developer Financing - In September, the total funds available to real estate companies were 798.1 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 11.5%, but the decline was less severe than in previous months [19] - The report indicates that the improvement in sales collections has contributed to the narrowing of the decline in funds [5] 5. Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on companies with stable fundamentals in core cities, smaller firms with significant breakthroughs in sales and land acquisition, and companies benefiting from the recovery in the second-hand housing market [5]

Investment Rating - The report rates the real estate industry as "Outperform" [1] Core Insights - The transaction volume of new and second-hand homes declined year-on-year during the National Day holiday period. However, the sales growth rate of the top 100 real estate companies turned positive in September [1] - New home transaction area turned negative month-on-month and the year-on-year decline expanded. The transaction area of second-hand homes also turned negative both month-on-month and year-on-year [1] - New home inventory area decreased month-on-month, with a narrowing year-on-year decline. The de-stocking cycle turned positive month-on-month [1] Summary by Sections 1. Key City New Home Market, Second-hand Home Market, and Inventory Tracking - In the 40th and 41st weeks, the new home transaction area in 40 cities was 3.114 million square meters, a month-on-month decrease of 25.3% and a year-on-year decrease of 17.1% [5][16] - The transaction area of second-hand homes in 18 cities was 154.6 million square meters, with a month-on-month decrease of 52.5% and a year-on-year decrease of 24.0% [46][52] 2. Land Market Tracking - The total land transaction area in 100 cities was 34.13 million square meters, a month-on-month increase of 18.4% but a year-on-year decrease of 8.2% [59][60] - The total land price was 88.28 billion yuan, a month-on-month increase of 49.4% but a year-on-year decrease of 8.6% [59][60] 3. Industry Policy Review - On October 9, the Chongqing Municipal Housing and Urban-Rural Development Committee introduced a series of innovative measures to support housing consumption, focusing on various groups such as graduates and new citizens [1] 4. Weekly Industry Performance Review - The absolute return of the real estate industry was -0.8%, a decrease of 3.8 percentage points compared to the previous week [13] - The relative return compared to the CSI 300 was -0.3%, a decrease of 1.3 percentage points compared to the previous week [13] 5. Company Bond Issuance Situation - The total bond issuance in the real estate industry was 0.94 billion yuan, a month-on-month decrease of 87.2% and a year-on-year decrease of 89.0% [54][56]

Summary of Real Estate Industry Conference Call Industry Overview - The real estate market has shown signs of weakness since May, with new construction, investment, and completion areas experiencing a year-on-year decline. However, key cities have seen a structural recovery in land acquisition amounts due to high premium land transactions in first-tier cities [1][3] - The sales area and amount of commercial housing have decreased year-on-year, but there has been slight improvement month-on-month. The price index for new homes and second-hand homes in 70 major cities has declined both year-on-year and month-on-month [1][4] Key Points and Arguments - **Market Data Trends**: - New construction area decreased by 19% year-on-year in May, while development investment fell by 12%. Cumulatively, from January to May, investment dropped by 11% [3] - The sales area and amount for commercial housing fell by 3% and 6% year-on-year, respectively, but showed slight month-on-month improvement [4] - The price index for new homes decreased by 4.1% year-on-year, and second-hand homes fell by 6.3% [4] - **High-frequency Data Insights**: - In June, the cumulative transaction area for new homes in 44 key cities dropped by 12% year-on-year, while second-hand homes fell by 4% [5] - Forward-looking indicators show market weakness, with a 5% decrease in transaction counts and an 11% drop in viewings for second-hand homes [5] - **Policy Implications**: - The government has emphasized stabilizing the real estate market, with recent meetings indicating potential policy adjustments to support direct payments to real estate companies [6][7] - Future policies may focus on stabilizing market fundamentals while transitioning to new models, with a need for ongoing confidence restoration and supply-demand relationship improvement [8] - **Institutional Development**: - The industry will focus on foundational institutional construction, including land acquisition, sales systems, and housing pension systems. Current attention is on the existing housing sales system [9] - Urban renewal and village reconstruction will be utilized to optimize supply, addressing the issue of insufficient quality housing despite ample supply [9] - **Inventory Management**: - A nationwide investigation into real estate inventory is necessary to support land and housing storage, enhancing policy effectiveness and potentially relaxing administrative restrictions in key cities [10][11] - **Market Expectations**: - Stabilizing expectations is crucial for both the real estate and stock markets, as positive future expectations drive demand for both sectors [12] Investment Opportunities - **Stock Recommendations**: - Focus on high-quality urban companies with good credit and excellent products, particularly in Shanghai. Recommended A-shares include Chengdu Investment Holdings, Chengjian Development, and others [14] - Hong Kong stocks are seen as having investment opportunities due to potential RMB appreciation and favorable market conditions [15] - **Hong Kong Market Outlook**: - The Hong Kong real estate market is expected to benefit from lower mortgage rates, population return, and supportive government policies, creating opportunities for companies with substantial property resources [16] - **Investment Strategy for Developers and Property Companies**: - Both developers and property companies are viewed as having allocation value, especially high-dividend companies like China Resources Mixc Lifestyle, Greentown Service, and others [17]

智通财经APP获悉，天风证券发布研报称，政策表态"促进房地产行业止跌企稳"，基本面拐点或将近， 增量政策预期持续。交易端，市场"底部共识"增强，"短线政策博弈+中长期估值修复"逻辑更加顺畅。 配置方向上，天风证券建议优先考虑①非国央企受益于化债、政策纾困、需求改善等多重逻辑下的困境 反转；②具备投资及改善产品优势的龙头房企独有的周期韧性；③区域型企业其城市基本面分化及市占 率提升逻辑；④二手中介受益于存量交易景气度提升。其中，低估值优质非国企及地方型企业受益于融 资、收储等政策的弹性空间或更大。 天风证券主要观点如下： 行业追踪（2025.5.4-2025.5.10） 降息注入需求企稳"强心针"。5月7日，央行国新办新闻发布会宣布下调政策利率0.1个百分点，即公开 市场7天期逆回购操作利率从目前的1.5%调降至1.4%；降低个人住房公积金贷款利率0.25个百分点，五 年期以上首套房利率由2.85%降至2.6%，其他期限利率同步调整。本次政策利率调整有望推动5年期LPR 稳步下行，公积金贷款利率一次性大幅调降25bp为商贷利率锚定较充足调降空间（0.1-0.25bp）。从可 比指标看，截止25Q1末，一线城市租 ...