Summary of Real Estate Industry Conference Call Industry Overview - The real estate market has shown signs of weakness since May, with new construction, investment, and completion areas experiencing a year-on-year decline. However, key cities have seen a structural recovery in land acquisition amounts due to high premium land transactions in first-tier cities [1][3] - The sales area and amount of commercial housing have decreased year-on-year, but there has been slight improvement month-on-month. The price index for new homes and second-hand homes in 70 major cities has declined both year-on-year and month-on-month [1][4] Key Points and Arguments - **Market Data Trends**: - New construction area decreased by 19% year-on-year in May, while development investment fell by 12%. Cumulatively, from January to May, investment dropped by 11% [3] - The sales area and amount for commercial housing fell by 3% and 6% year-on-year, respectively, but showed slight month-on-month improvement [4] - The price index for new homes decreased by 4.1% year-on-year, and second-hand homes fell by 6.3% [4] - **High-frequency Data Insights**: - In June, the cumulative transaction area for new homes in 44 key cities dropped by 12% year-on-year, while second-hand homes fell by 4% [5] - Forward-looking indicators show market weakness, with a 5% decrease in transaction counts and an 11% drop in viewings for second-hand homes [5] - **Policy Implications**: - The government has emphasized stabilizing the real estate market, with recent meetings indicating potential policy adjustments to support direct payments to real estate companies [6][7] - Future policies may focus on stabilizing market fundamentals while transitioning to new models, with a need for ongoing confidence restoration and supply-demand relationship improvement [8] - **Institutional Development**: - The industry will focus on foundational institutional construction, including land acquisition, sales systems, and housing pension systems. Current attention is on the existing housing sales system [9] - Urban renewal and village reconstruction will be utilized to optimize supply, addressing the issue of insufficient quality housing despite ample supply [9] - **Inventory Management**: - A nationwide investigation into real estate inventory is necessary to support land and housing storage, enhancing policy effectiveness and potentially relaxing administrative restrictions in key cities [10][11] - **Market Expectations**: - Stabilizing expectations is crucial for both the real estate and stock markets, as positive future expectations drive demand for both sectors [12] Investment Opportunities - **Stock Recommendations**: - Focus on high-quality urban companies with good credit and excellent products, particularly in Shanghai. Recommended A-shares include Chengdu Investment Holdings, Chengjian Development, and others [14] - Hong Kong stocks are seen as having investment opportunities due to potential RMB appreciation and favorable market conditions [15] - **Hong Kong Market Outlook**: - The Hong Kong real estate market is expected to benefit from lower mortgage rates, population return, and supportive government policies, creating opportunities for companies with substantial property resources [16] - **Investment Strategy for Developers and Property Companies**: - Both developers and property companies are viewed as having allocation value, especially high-dividend companies like China Resources Mixc Lifestyle, Greentown Service, and others [17]

智通财经APP获悉，天风证券发布研报称，政策表态"促进房地产行业止跌企稳"，基本面拐点或将近， 增量政策预期持续。交易端，市场"底部共识"增强，"短线政策博弈+中长期估值修复"逻辑更加顺畅。 配置方向上，天风证券建议优先考虑①非国央企受益于化债、政策纾困、需求改善等多重逻辑下的困境 反转；②具备投资及改善产品优势的龙头房企独有的周期韧性；③区域型企业其城市基本面分化及市占 率提升逻辑；④二手中介受益于存量交易景气度提升。其中，低估值优质非国企及地方型企业受益于融 资、收储等政策的弹性空间或更大。 天风证券主要观点如下： 行业追踪（2025.5.4-2025.5.10） 降息注入需求企稳"强心针"。5月7日，央行国新办新闻发布会宣布下调政策利率0.1个百分点，即公开 市场7天期逆回购操作利率从目前的1.5%调降至1.4%；降低个人住房公积金贷款利率0.25个百分点，五 年期以上首套房利率由2.85%降至2.6%，其他期限利率同步调整。本次政策利率调整有望推动5年期LPR 稳步下行，公积金贷款利率一次性大幅调降25bp为商贷利率锚定较充足调降空间（0.1-0.25bp）。从可 比指标看，截止25Q1末，一线城市租 ...