Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) [1] Core Insights - The company reported a significant increase in performance, with a 60.6% year-on-year growth in revenue for Q3 2025, reaching 65.5 billion yuan, and a 46.6% increase in net profit attributable to shareholders, amounting to 2.39 billion yuan [6] - The company has a strong land acquisition strategy, with a total land acquisition amount of 36.6 billion yuan in Q3 2025, representing a 34.2% year-on-year increase, and a land acquisition intensity of 47% [6] - The company maintains a healthy financial position with a net debt ratio of 6.6% and a cash-to-short-term debt ratio of 4.3 times, indicating strong liquidity [6] Financial Data and Profit Forecast - Total revenue for 2024 is projected at 69.15 billion yuan, with an expected increase to 76.04 billion yuan in 2025, reflecting a 10% year-on-year growth [2] - The net profit attributable to shareholders is forecasted to be 2.94 billion yuan in 2025, with a growth rate of 15.4% [2] - The earnings per share (EPS) is expected to rise to 0.94 yuan in 2025, up from 0.77 yuan in 2024 [2] Market Data - As of October 30, 2025, the closing price of the company's stock is 11.10 yuan, with a market capitalization of 29.81 billion yuan [3] - The company has a price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio of 14 for 2024, which is expected to decrease to 12 in 2025 and further to 11 in 2026 [2][3] Sales Performance - The company achieved sales of 78.6 billion yuan in Q3 2025, with a slight year-on-year decrease of 1.9%, while maintaining a high average selling price of 39,000 yuan per square meter [6] - The company aims for a sales target of approximately 100 billion yuan in 2025, despite a projected decrease of 10% year-on-year [6] Land Acquisition Strategy - The company focuses on land acquisition in the Hangzhou area, with 97% of the total land acquisition in Q3 2025 occurring in this region [6] - The average land acquisition price was 30,000 yuan per square meter, reflecting a 15.8% year-on-year increase [6]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) [4] Core Views - The company faced revenue and profit pressure in H1 2025, with total revenue of 1168.57 billion yuan (down 16.08% year-on-year) and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 27.11 billion yuan (down 63.47% year-on-year) [2][9] - Despite the challenges, the company is focusing on inventory reduction and land acquisition in core cities, maintaining a leading position in sales and land acquisition scale [3][4][9] - The company has successfully reduced costs, with sales and management expense ratios decreasing compared to the previous year, which supports its profitability recovery [9] Performance Summary - In H1 2025, the company recorded a turnover area of 900.3 million square meters (down 23.12% year-on-year) and a turnover revenue of 1051.43 billion yuan (down 17.72% year-on-year) [6] - The gross profit margin for real estate sales in H1 2025 was 14.88%, showing a recovery compared to the full year of 2024 [6] - The company achieved a sales area of 713.54 million square meters (down 25.2% year-on-year) and a sales amount of 1451.71 billion yuan (down 16.25% year-on-year) [6] Sales and Investment - The company is accelerating inventory clearance and focusing sales efforts on core cities, with a significant increase in land acquisition in H1 2025 [4][9] - The company ranked first in land acquisition amount and second in land acquisition area among peers [7] - The company has a total of 26 new projects in core cities with a total land price of 509 billion yuan [7] Financing - The company's interest-bearing debt cost continues to decline, with an asset-liability ratio of 73.53% at the end of H1 2025 [8] - The average cost of new interest-bearing debt decreased by 21 basis points to 2.71% [8] Financial Forecast - The company has slightly adjusted its net profit forecasts for 2025-2027, with expected profits of 51.7 billion yuan (previously 50.7 billion yuan), 58.5 billion yuan, and 65.6 billion yuan respectively [9]

Core Viewpoint - CICC maintains its 2025 profit forecast for Jianfa International Group (01908) while slightly raising the 2026 profit forecast by 2% to 5.1 billion HKD, reflecting year-on-year growth of 10% and 8% respectively. The target price is raised by 7% to 21.4 HKD, indicating an upside potential of 16% based on market risk preference adjustments [1]. Group 1 - The company's 1H25 performance slightly exceeded market expectations, with revenue increasing by 4% to 34.2 billion HKD and net profit rising by 12% to 910 million HKD, primarily due to improvements in settlement gross margin and equity ratio [2]. - The company acquired 26 new land parcels in the first half of 2025, with total land payments amounting to 49.5 billion HKD, achieving a land acquisition intensity of 70%, significantly higher than the industry average [3]. - The company maintains a healthy financial position, with a net debt ratio of 33.4% and a cash-to-short-term debt ratio of 4.1 times, while the average financing cost has decreased to a historical low of 3.17% [4]. Group 2 - The company is expected to maintain its steady sales ranking, moving up one position to sixth place in total sales amount for 1H25, with an estimated total supply of 160 to 170 billion HKD [5]. - The overall performance for the year is projected to show steady growth, supported by a robust pipeline of unsold inventory and a favorable settlement resource volume, which is 1.6 times the predicted revenue for 2025 [6].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [2][7][17] Core Views - The company has demonstrated strong performance with a revenue increase of 4.3% year-on-year in H1 2025, achieving a total revenue of 34.16 billion yuan [7] - The company's asset quality is excellent, with a significant increase in sales and land acquisition, indicating a robust market position [7] - The financial health remains strong, with all three red lines maintained in the green zone, and a decreasing financing cost [7] Financial Data and Profit Forecast - Revenue projections for the company are as follows: - 2023: 134.43 billion yuan - 2024: 142.99 billion yuan - 2025E: 149.85 billion yuan - 2026E: 157.19 billion yuan - 2027E: 172.28 billion yuan - Year-on-year growth rates for revenue are projected at 34.9% for 2023, 6.4% for 2024, and gradually decreasing thereafter [6][8] - Net profit attributable to the parent company is forecasted as follows: - 2023: 5.035 billion yuan - 2024: 4.804 billion yuan - 2025E: 5.064 billion yuan - 2026E: 5.327 billion yuan - 2027E: 5.882 billion yuan [6][8] - Earnings per share (EPS) is projected to be 2.36 yuan in 2023, decreasing to 2.10 yuan in 2025E, and then increasing to 2.44 yuan by 2027E [6][8] Sales and Investment Highlights - The company achieved a total sales amount of 70.7 billion yuan in H1 2025, a year-on-year increase of 7% [7] - The average selling price increased by 25% year-on-year to 26,500 yuan per square meter [7] - The company acquired 26 new land parcels with a total investment of 49.5 billion yuan, reflecting an 18% increase year-on-year [7] Financial Health - The company's asset-liability ratio stands at 58.9%, with a net debt ratio of 33.4% and a cash-to-short-term debt ratio of 3.9 times [7] - The weighted average financing cost has decreased to 3.17%, indicating improved financial conditions [7]

三十载风云激荡，九万里风鹏正举。 上世纪90年代住房制度改革如一声春雷，开启了中国居住文明的崭新纪元。30年间，中国城镇化率从不到30%跃升至65%以上，超过8亿城镇居民的人均 住房面积从6.7平方米增长至40平方米，数百座城市的空间格局发生历史性重塑。 这场人类历史上规模最大的居住革命，不仅改变了亿万家庭的生活方式，更成为推动中国经济持续增长的重要引擎。 在中国住房制度改革迎来30周年之际，"中国房地产三十年荣誉庆典·北京论坛"于8月10日启幕，这场由北京住宅房地产业商会会同有关公司共同主办的会 议，既是对一个时代的深情回望，更是对行业未来的庄严宣誓。从福利分房到商品化改革，从居者有其屋到美好生活向往，中国房地产用30年时间书写了 一部波澜壮阔的城镇化史诗。原国家房改课题组组长、中房集团前董事长孟晓苏，全联房地产商会创始人之一、北京精瑞人居发展基金会主席聂梅生，旷 视企业负责人赵康，中国房地产业协会名誉副会长苗乐如，中国房地产报社社委会主任栗文忠，《中国地产》杂志总编贺和平，厚土机构主席林少洲，北 京星牌集团董事长甘连舫，太合控股公司董事李长山，首都经济贸易大学京津冀房地产研究院院长赵秀池，北京住宅房地产业 ...

丨证券研究报告丨 公司研究丨点评报告丨招商蛇口（001979.SZ） [Table_Title] 业绩实现稳健增长，拿地表现明显改善 报告要点 [Table_Summary] 业绩方面，公司 2025Q1 营收下降但归母净利润实现稳健增长，主要由于结转项目权益比例同 比提升，全年营收面临下行压力，但业绩展望仍稳健。经营方面，公司销售规模维持行业第五， 拿地表现明显改善，财务安全边际维持较高水平，信用优势持续巩固，持有业务稳健发展，新 发展模式探索保持领先，综合竞争力维持前列。当前估值并未反映中长期价值且隐含空间较大， 维持"买入"评级。 分析师及联系人 %% %% %% %% research.95579.com 1 招商蛇口（001979.SZ） cjzqdt11111 [Table_Title2] 业绩实现稳健增长，拿地表现明显改善 [Table_Author] 刘义 宋子逸 SAC：S0490520040001 SAC：S0490522080002 SFC：BUV416 请阅读最后评级说明和重要声明 [Table_Summary2] 事件描述 公司发布 2025 年一季度报告，报告期内公司实现营业收入 ...