Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) [1][6] Core Insights - The company has adjusted its headquarters organizational structure to enhance management efficiency and effectiveness amid declining sales [6][9] - The company remains the industry leader in sales, with a strong focus on optimizing land reserves and maintaining open financing channels, resulting in a significant cost advantage [6][9] - Profit forecasts for the company are maintained, with expected net profits for 2025, 2026, and 2027 at 4.26 billion, 5.24 billion, and 6.41 billion respectively, translating to EPS of 0.36, 0.44, and 0.54 [6][10] Sales Performance - In December 2025, the company achieved a signed sales amount of 12.16 billion, a year-on-year decrease of 18.9%, with a total annual sales amount of 253.03 billion, down 21.7% [7] - The company maintained its leading position in sales, with an average sales price of 20,483 yuan per square meter, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 13.9% [7] Land Acquisition - The company acquired 10 plots of land in major cities such as Shanghai and Guangzhou in December 2025, with a monthly acquisition amount of 11.93 billion, up 18.4% year-on-year [8] - The total land acquisition amount for 2025 reached 77.13 billion, a year-on-year increase of 13.0%, with a land acquisition area of 4.572 million square meters, up 39.2% [8] Financial Summary - The company’s total revenue for 2023 is projected at 346.83 billion, with a decline expected in subsequent years, reaching 269.09 billion in 2025 and 225.90 billion in 2026 [10][14] - The gross profit margin is expected to decrease from 16.0% in 2023 to 13.1% in 2025, with a slight recovery to 14.1% in 2026 [14] - The net profit margin is projected to improve from 1.6% in 2024 to 2.3% in 2026 [14]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) [1] Core Insights - The company reported a significant increase in performance, with a 60.6% year-on-year growth in revenue for Q3 2025, reaching 65.5 billion yuan, and a 46.6% increase in net profit attributable to shareholders, amounting to 2.39 billion yuan [6] - The company has a strong land acquisition strategy, with a total land acquisition amount of 36.6 billion yuan in Q3 2025, representing a 34.2% year-on-year increase, and a land acquisition intensity of 47% [6] - The company maintains a healthy financial position with a net debt ratio of 6.6% and a cash-to-short-term debt ratio of 4.3 times, indicating strong liquidity [6] Financial Data and Profit Forecast - Total revenue for 2024 is projected at 69.15 billion yuan, with an expected increase to 76.04 billion yuan in 2025, reflecting a 10% year-on-year growth [2] - The net profit attributable to shareholders is forecasted to be 2.94 billion yuan in 2025, with a growth rate of 15.4% [2] - The earnings per share (EPS) is expected to rise to 0.94 yuan in 2025, up from 0.77 yuan in 2024 [2] Market Data - As of October 30, 2025, the closing price of the company's stock is 11.10 yuan, with a market capitalization of 29.81 billion yuan [3] - The company has a price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio of 14 for 2024, which is expected to decrease to 12 in 2025 and further to 11 in 2026 [2][3] Sales Performance - The company achieved sales of 78.6 billion yuan in Q3 2025, with a slight year-on-year decrease of 1.9%, while maintaining a high average selling price of 39,000 yuan per square meter [6] - The company aims for a sales target of approximately 100 billion yuan in 2025, despite a projected decrease of 10% year-on-year [6] Land Acquisition Strategy - The company focuses on land acquisition in the Hangzhou area, with 97% of the total land acquisition in Q3 2025 occurring in this region [6] - The average land acquisition price was 30,000 yuan per square meter, reflecting a 15.8% year-on-year increase [6]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) [4] Core Views - The company faced revenue and profit pressure in H1 2025, with total revenue of 1168.57 billion yuan (down 16.08% year-on-year) and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 27.11 billion yuan (down 63.47% year-on-year) [2][9] - Despite the challenges, the company is focusing on inventory reduction and land acquisition in core cities, maintaining a leading position in sales and land acquisition scale [3][4][9] - The company has successfully reduced costs, with sales and management expense ratios decreasing compared to the previous year, which supports its profitability recovery [9] Performance Summary - In H1 2025, the company recorded a turnover area of 900.3 million square meters (down 23.12% year-on-year) and a turnover revenue of 1051.43 billion yuan (down 17.72% year-on-year) [6] - The gross profit margin for real estate sales in H1 2025 was 14.88%, showing a recovery compared to the full year of 2024 [6] - The company achieved a sales area of 713.54 million square meters (down 25.2% year-on-year) and a sales amount of 1451.71 billion yuan (down 16.25% year-on-year) [6] Sales and Investment - The company is accelerating inventory clearance and focusing sales efforts on core cities, with a significant increase in land acquisition in H1 2025 [4][9] - The company ranked first in land acquisition amount and second in land acquisition area among peers [7] - The company has a total of 26 new projects in core cities with a total land price of 509 billion yuan [7] Financing - The company's interest-bearing debt cost continues to decline, with an asset-liability ratio of 73.53% at the end of H1 2025 [8] - The average cost of new interest-bearing debt decreased by 21 basis points to 2.71% [8] Financial Forecast - The company has slightly adjusted its net profit forecasts for 2025-2027, with expected profits of 51.7 billion yuan (previously 50.7 billion yuan), 58.5 billion yuan, and 65.6 billion yuan respectively [9]

Core Viewpoint - CICC maintains its 2025 profit forecast for Jianfa International Group (01908) while slightly raising the 2026 profit forecast by 2% to 5.1 billion HKD, reflecting year-on-year growth of 10% and 8% respectively. The target price is raised by 7% to 21.4 HKD, indicating an upside potential of 16% based on market risk preference adjustments [1]. Group 1 - The company's 1H25 performance slightly exceeded market expectations, with revenue increasing by 4% to 34.2 billion HKD and net profit rising by 12% to 910 million HKD, primarily due to improvements in settlement gross margin and equity ratio [2]. - The company acquired 26 new land parcels in the first half of 2025, with total land payments amounting to 49.5 billion HKD, achieving a land acquisition intensity of 70%, significantly higher than the industry average [3]. - The company maintains a healthy financial position, with a net debt ratio of 33.4% and a cash-to-short-term debt ratio of 4.1 times, while the average financing cost has decreased to a historical low of 3.17% [4]. Group 2 - The company is expected to maintain its steady sales ranking, moving up one position to sixth place in total sales amount for 1H25, with an estimated total supply of 160 to 170 billion HKD [5]. - The overall performance for the year is projected to show steady growth, supported by a robust pipeline of unsold inventory and a favorable settlement resource volume, which is 1.6 times the predicted revenue for 2025 [6].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [2][7][17] Core Views - The company has demonstrated strong performance with a revenue increase of 4.3% year-on-year in H1 2025, achieving a total revenue of 34.16 billion yuan [7] - The company's asset quality is excellent, with a significant increase in sales and land acquisition, indicating a robust market position [7] - The financial health remains strong, with all three red lines maintained in the green zone, and a decreasing financing cost [7] Financial Data and Profit Forecast - Revenue projections for the company are as follows: - 2023: 134.43 billion yuan - 2024: 142.99 billion yuan - 2025E: 149.85 billion yuan - 2026E: 157.19 billion yuan - 2027E: 172.28 billion yuan - Year-on-year growth rates for revenue are projected at 34.9% for 2023, 6.4% for 2024, and gradually decreasing thereafter [6][8] - Net profit attributable to the parent company is forecasted as follows: - 2023: 5.035 billion yuan - 2024: 4.804 billion yuan - 2025E: 5.064 billion yuan - 2026E: 5.327 billion yuan - 2027E: 5.882 billion yuan [6][8] - Earnings per share (EPS) is projected to be 2.36 yuan in 2023, decreasing to 2.10 yuan in 2025E, and then increasing to 2.44 yuan by 2027E [6][8] Sales and Investment Highlights - The company achieved a total sales amount of 70.7 billion yuan in H1 2025, a year-on-year increase of 7% [7] - The average selling price increased by 25% year-on-year to 26,500 yuan per square meter [7] - The company acquired 26 new land parcels with a total investment of 49.5 billion yuan, reflecting an 18% increase year-on-year [7] Financial Health - The company's asset-liability ratio stands at 58.9%, with a net debt ratio of 33.4% and a cash-to-short-term debt ratio of 3.9 times [7] - The weighted average financing cost has decreased to 3.17%, indicating improved financial conditions [7]

Core Insights - The 30th anniversary of China's housing reform marks a significant transformation in urbanization, with the urbanization rate rising from less than 30% to over 65%, and the average housing area per urban resident increasing from 6.7 square meters to 40 square meters [2][3] Group 1: Industry Achievements - The "China Real Estate 30 Years Honor Celebration" held on August 10 serves as both a reflection on the past and a commitment to the future of the industry, highlighting the evolution from welfare housing to market-oriented reforms [3] - Over 100 industry experts and veterans participated in the celebration, discussing the substantial changes in the real estate sector over the past 30 years and offering insights for future development [3][5] Group 2: Economic Context - The current economic environment suggests that achieving a 5.5% growth target for the year is likely, despite the real estate sector being in a period of adjustment [4] - The real estate industry is recognized as a pillar of the national economy, with potential for growth under the macro backdrop of high-quality development and urban renewal trends [4] Group 3: Future Outlook - Industry leaders express confidence in the long-term development of the real estate sector, citing the vast domestic market of 1.4 billion people and the sector's foundational role in the economy [5] - The establishment of a "market + guarantee" mechanism is seen as a pathway for stable market development [5] - The Beijing Housing Industry Association emphasizes its role in guiding the industry and believes that with strong policy support and recovering market confidence, the real estate market will continue to improve [7]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [9]. Core Insights - The company reported a revenue decline in Q1 2025 but achieved a robust growth in net profit attributable to shareholders, primarily due to an increase in the proportion of project equity recognized [6][11]. - Despite facing downward pressure on annual revenue, the performance outlook remains stable, supported by improved land acquisition performance and a strong financial safety margin [11]. - The company ranks fifth in sales scale within the industry, with a significant improvement in land acquisition, achieving a total land acquisition amount of 20 billion yuan, a 102% increase year-on-year [11]. Financial Performance - In Q1 2025, the company achieved a total revenue of 20.4 billion yuan, down 13.9% year-on-year, while net profit attributable to shareholders rose by 34.0% to 450 million yuan [6][11]. - The gross margin decreased by 2.7 percentage points to 11.8%, and the expense ratio (excluding R&D expenses) increased by 1.2 percentage points to 7.1% [11]. - The company's asset-liability ratio, excluding advance receipts, stood at 60.5%, with a net debt ratio of 51.1% and a cash-to-short-term debt ratio of 1.1, indicating a relatively low leverage level [11]. Sales and Land Acquisition - The company recorded a sales amount of 35.1 billion yuan in Q1 2025, reflecting a 12.8% decline, but the sales drop was significantly narrower compared to the previous year [11]. - The total salable value for 2025 is estimated at 325 billion yuan, with expectations of continued downward pressure on sales [11]. - The land acquisition intensity improved significantly, with the land acquisition amount to sales ratio rising to 57% from 22% in the previous year, focusing on core first- and second-tier cities [11]. Business Development - The company's asset operation business generated a total income of 7.46 billion yuan in 2024, with a stable EBITDA return rate of 6.42% for projects in stable operation for over three years [11]. - The urban service business reported a revenue of 4.46 billion yuan in Q1 2025, up 19.9%, with a net profit of 220 million yuan, reflecting a 15.1% increase [11]. - The company has established three domestic and overseas REITs platforms, enhancing the value of its existing assets and maintaining a leading position in exploring new business models [11].