Core Viewpoint - Each technological revolution initially enhances production efficiency, subsequently leading to changes in economic structure, industry patterns, and asset allocation models. The driving force behind technology's evolution from inception to widespread adoption is not merely a breakthrough in a single technology, but rather the penetration, diffusion, and deep integration of new technologies within the economic system [1][13]. Group 1: Technological Revolution Phases - Since the Industrial Revolution, global economies experience a "great wave" driven by significant technological clusters approximately every 50-60 years, establishing a new "technology-economy paradigm" that optimizes production, organization, and management models [2][17]. - Each technological revolution can be divided into two main phases: the Installation Period and the Deployment Period. The Installation Period is characterized by infrastructure reconstruction, trial-and-error business models, and financial capital accumulation, further divided into the outbreak and frenzy stages. The Deployment Period features comprehensive technology dissemination and the establishment of economic paradigms, further divided into the synergy and maturity stages [2][17]. Group 2: Capital Forms and Their Roles - The "great wave" theory distinguishes between two forms of capital: financial capital and production capital. Financial capital is adept at trend identification, flexibility, speculation, and short-term profit orientation, while production capital focuses on industry realization, stability, path dependence, and long-term investment orientation. During the Installation Period of technological revolutions, financial capital typically takes the lead, while production capital assumes a dominant role during the Deployment Period [3][20]. Group 3: Economic Impacts of Technological Revolutions - In the Installation Period of a technological revolution, the overall economy may face pressure, and the differentiation between new and old industries may widen. New technologies are still in the nurturing phase and may not broadly stimulate related industries, employment, or productivity [5][29]. - During the Deployment Period, overall economic pressure is expected to ease, and the differentiation between new and old industries may narrow. New technologies become widely applied, leading to new products, business forms, and industries, which can create new employment forms [5][30]. Group 4: Global Dynamics and Catch-Up Opportunities - The "great wave" theory indicates that the Installation Period of each technological revolution provides critical catch-up windows for latecomer countries. Historical examples include Germany and the U.S. surpassing the U.K. before World War II, and the post-war rise of Japan and other economies [7][40]. - Latecomer countries can leverage their "latecomer advantage" by utilizing labor cost and technology transfer advantages to achieve leapfrog development, mastering key core technologies that drive the development of leading industries [7][40]. Group 5: Future Implications and Trends - The emergence of AI as the core technology of the sixth technological revolution is expected to enhance productivity across all sectors, breaking traditional growth bottlenecks. The scenario of AI's application is anticipated to evolve significantly, particularly in countries with favorable conditions for technology integration [10][12]. - The theory also suggests that macroeconomic policies should promote overall rebalancing, including actively expanding total demand and ensuring employment stability during the technological revolution's Installation Period [12][13].

作者：[英] 卡洛塔·佩雷斯（Carlota Perez） 导语：当生成式AI引发投资狂热，技术创新与金融泡沫再度交织，我们该如何穿透迷局、把握周期红利？近日， 科技投资界圣 经《技术革命与金融资本：泡沫与黄金时代的动力学》经典再版！作为"技术-经济范式"理论先驱卡 洛塔·佩雷斯的重磅力作，本书以200年来的五次技术革命为蓝本，新增对AI时代科技投资周期的全新洞察，破 解"技术突破-金融狂热-泡沫破裂-制度重构-黄金时代"的底层逻辑，带我们在狂热与秩序之间，把握当下科技投资 的规律。 以下为《比较》研究部主管陈永伟为本书撰写的推荐序《在狂热与秩序之间：《技术革命与金融资本》的思想启 示》，以飨读者。 译者：田方萌 等 出版社：湛庐文化/浙江科学技术出版社 出版时间：2025年12月 从泡沫到秩序：资本主义的深层节律 卡洛塔·佩雷斯的《技术革命与金融资本》是一部以长时段视野理解资本主义演化规律的经典之作。它不仅在熊彼 特"创新与周期"的传统中再造新意，也以独特的系统视角揭示了技术、金融与制度之间相互塑形的复杂关系。 佩雷斯以200余年的工业史为素材，描绘出了资本主义发展的"波浪形"结构：从18世纪的机械化革命， ...

译者：田方萌 等 出版社：湛庐文化/浙江科学技术出版社 出版时间：2025年12月 从泡沫到秩序：资本主义的深层节律 卡洛塔·佩雷斯的《技术革命与金融资本》是一部以长时段视野理解资本主义演化规律的经典之作。它不仅在熊彼 特"创新与周期"的传统中再造新意，也以独特的系统视角揭示了技术、金融与制度之间相互塑形的复杂关系。 导语：当生成式AI引发投资狂热，技术创新与金融泡沫再度交织，我们该如何穿透迷局、把握周期红利？近日， 科技投资界圣 经《技术革命与金融资本：泡沫与黄金时代的动力学》经典再版！作为"技术-经济范式"理论先驱卡 洛塔·佩雷斯的重磅力作，本书以200年来的五次技术革命为蓝本，新增对AI时代科技投资周期的全新洞察，破 解"技术突破-金融狂热-泡沫破裂-制度重构-黄金时代"的底层逻辑，带我们在狂热与秩序之间，把握当下科技投资 的规律。 以下为《比较》研究部主管陈永伟为本书撰写的推荐序《在狂热与秩序之间：《技术革命与金融资本》的思想启 示》，以飨读者。 作者：[英] 卡洛塔·佩雷斯（Carlota Perez） 佩雷斯以200余年的工业史为素材，描绘出了资本主义发展的"波浪形"结构：从18世纪的机械化革命， ...

Group 1: Macroeconomic Effects of Technological Progress - The macroeconomic effects of technological progress can be divided into two phases: the "Installation Period" and the "Deployment Period" [8] - During the "Installation Period," there is often a temporary increase in total pressure, and the differentiation between new and old industries expands [9] - In the "Deployment Period," total pressure tends to ease, and the differentiation between new and old industries narrows as new technologies are widely applied [9] Group 2: Market Performance and Trends - Global equity markets experienced fluctuations, with U.S. stocks showing resilience in consumer, energy, and small-cap sectors, while technology stocks faced valuation pressure due to rising U.S. Treasury yields [12] - The S&P 500 fear and greed index dropped to 41.2, indicating a shift in market sentiment [12] - The A-share market saw a weekly increase of 0.49%, with the 10-year government bond yield decreasing by 3.6 basis points to 1.82% [19] Group 3: Commodity and Currency Movements - Gold prices rose by 2.61% to $4,611.05 per ounce, while silver prices surged by 16.2% [14] - The U.S. dollar index rebounded by 0.23% to 99.38, reflecting its safe-haven status amid market uncertainties [17] - Brent crude oil futures increased by 1.25%, while copper prices faced a decline of 1.5% [15] Group 4: Economic Indicators and Predictions - The Atlanta Fed's GDPNow model predicts a 5.3% annualized growth rate for Q4 based on resilient consumer spending and stable manufacturing data [3] - The probability of the Federal Reserve maintaining interest rates in March is estimated at 78.9%, with a 20.3% chance of a 25 basis point cut [52]