私募大佬但斌最近热度不断，前脚刚就2024年"9·24"行情判断向任泽平致歉，承认确实是牛市，为这场持续近两年的多空之争画上句号；后脚就被财经大 V腾腾爸揪着业绩不放，公开叫板质疑。 日前，腾腾爸发微博表示："但总旗下私募基金，最近三年（2023-2025）综合收益大约140%+，表现确实不错。但2021-2022连续两年大幅回撤。2021年 我没找到数据，2022年有报道称大约回撤了45%。也就是说，但总基金最近5年，先来了个腰斩，又上涨了140%+，5年总体收益大约20%+。年化不到 5%。" 质疑之余，他还拉出日斗投资董事长王文的业绩作对比："百亿规模基金，最近5年王文总旗下基金总体收益220%+。这个是真厉害了。" 文末，腾腾爸还故作疑问补了一句"我计算的对吗？" 司机在这里直接给出答案：大错特错！腾腾爸连最基本的业绩数据都算错，这根本就是拿着错误数 据碰瓷大佬的流量闹剧！ 2021年但斌的收益数据，腾腾爸称"没找到"，但司机从权威媒体报道中查到：私募大佬但斌管理的产品在2021年确实大幅亏损，东方港湾旗下超90只产品 2021年亏损超10%。 但斌本人也曾坦言："从业29年，2021年算经历了又一次 ...

根据公司公告，2025 年业绩大幅增长的主要原因之一为投资业绩高增，我们估计保险服务业绩或相对 稳定。投资端，2025 年下半年（尤其第四季度）公司优秀的投资表现有效对冲并弥补了上半年投资业 绩承压带来的不利影响。2025 年上半年，中国太平投资业绩为负，表现为投资亏损，为公司利润表现 带来一定压力。三季度时投资收益已有所修复，根据太平人寿三季报，前三季度太平人寿总投资收益同 比增长4%左右，带动税前利润同比增长18%。考虑到下半年归母净利润涨幅超700%，我们估计第四季 度投资收益表现非常强劲，带动全年投资业绩同比大幅增长。从投资结构看，截至1H25末，公司股票 和基金的配置比例合计为12.2%，2025 年下半年公司积极加仓权益，我们估计股票和基金配置比例有所 提升。 展望2026 年，行业负债端有望全面转向分红险。当前分红险的实际收益率在3%左右水平，已较为明显 地高出传统险（预定利率2%），在居民储蓄需求仍处于高位的背景下，储蓄性质较强的寿险产品仍具 有较强的吸引力，分红险有望在2026 年推动负债端保持有韧性的增长。公司分红险转型领先行业，经 验丰富，2025 年已基本形成以分红险为主的新单产品结构 ...

Group 1 - The core event attracting capital market attention is the IPOs of Moore Threads and Muxi Co., both of which saw their stock prices rise several times above the issue price, with market capitalizations exceeding 300 billion yuan [1] - Investor Ge Weidong's significant investment in Muxi Co. resulted in a stock price increase of up to 755% on the listing day, leading to a personal wealth increase of 19.5 billion yuan [1] - Ge Weidong's investment strategy includes substantial stakes in technology stocks, with his holdings in various companies now exceeding 300 billion yuan [2][3] Group 2 - Ge Weidong transitioned from the futures market to the stock market, achieving notable performance, with his portfolio growing from tens of billions to hundreds of billions over the years [3] - His investment philosophy emphasizes patience and strategic timing, often holding stocks for two to three years or more [3] - Despite market volatility, Ge Weidong remains focused on long-term investment strategies, indicating a balance between emotional resilience and market analysis [3]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [7][5]. Core Insights - The company reported a net profit of RMB 15.813 billion for Q3 2025, representing a year-on-year increase of 91.5%, driven by improved underwriting performance and significant investment gains [1]. - The combined operating ratio (COR) for the first three quarters was 96.1%, a decrease of 2.1 percentage points year-on-year, indicating enhanced underwriting profitability [1]. - The total investment income for the first three quarters reached RMB 35.9 billion, a year-on-year increase of 33.0%, with an annualized total investment return of 5.4% [4]. Summary by Sections Underwriting Performance - The company has improved its underwriting management, leading to a decrease in the car insurance COR to 94.8%, down 2.0 percentage points year-on-year, and a 65% increase in underwriting profit to RMB 11.729 billion [2]. - Non-car insurance COR decreased to 98.0%, down 2.5 percentage points year-on-year, with underwriting profit turning positive at RMB 3.136 billion [3]. Investment Performance - The investment performance saw a significant increase, with Q3 2025 investment income reaching RMB 15.041 billion, up 60.2% year-on-year [4]. - The company has increased its allocation to high-quality equity assets, with equity assets accounting for 13.8% of the portfolio as of the first half of 2025 [4]. Profit Forecast and Valuation - The earnings per share (EPS) estimates for 2025, 2026, and 2027 have been raised to RMB 2.09, RMB 2.32, and RMB 2.52 respectively, reflecting adjustments of +8.1%, +8.4%, and +8.7% [5]. - The target price based on discounted cash flow (DCF) valuation has been increased to HKD 23.20 from HKD 21.00 [5].

Core Viewpoint - The company's performance growth is driven by investment results, while asset sales have led to a decline in asset management business [1][2] Group 1: Investment Performance - The company's net income from investment business increased by 71.9% to 8.322 billion yuan, contributing 98.31% to the adjusted revenue growth [2] - The financial asset scale has increased by 20.64% compared to the end of 2024, reaching 434.059 billion yuan, primarily due to a 19.02% increase in trading financial assets [2] - Investment management revenue surged by 6487.85% to 1.928 billion yuan, driven by the valuation growth of private equity funds and alternative investment projects [2] Group 2: Asset Management Business - Following the sale of Assetmark, the asset management business net income decreased by 42.7% to 1.542 billion yuan, negatively impacting overall performance [2] Group 3: Balance Sheet and Market Opportunities - The company's balance sheet has fully resumed expansion, positioning it to better capture market opportunities from institutional and retail fund inflows [3] - The trading financial assets have shown significant increases, with stocks up by 5.1%, bonds by 19.2%, and other debt investments by 26.1% [3] Group 4: Market Catalysts - The continued activity and favorable trends in the equity market are seen as catalysts for further performance improvement [4]

Core Insights - China Life Insurance reported a net profit of 12.85 billion yuan for Q1 2025, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 43.4%, aligning with expectations [1] - The combined ratio (COR) improved to 94.5%, down 3.4 percentage points year-on-year, driven by reduced disaster risks and effective cost management [2] - The investment income surged to 12.2 billion yuan, marking a 390% year-on-year increase, indicating strong investment performance [1] Group 1: Financial Performance - The net profit attributable to shareholders reached 12.85 billion yuan, with property and casualty insurance net profit at 11.31 billion yuan, up 92.7% year-on-year [1] - Life and health insurance net profits were 3.65 billion yuan and 2.43 billion yuan, showing a year-on-year change of -4.4% and +59.9% respectively [1] - The total premium income for property and casualty insurance was 180.4 billion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 3.7% [2] Group 2: Underwriting and Premium Growth - The COR for property and casualty insurance improved significantly, attributed to reduced disaster risks and enhanced expense management [2] - The premium growth was steady, with auto insurance premiums at 71.7 billion yuan and non-auto insurance premiums at 108.7 billion yuan, both showing positive year-on-year growth [2] - There was a notable divergence in growth rates among non-auto insurance segments, with health insurance growing by 6.5% while agricultural insurance declined by 4.1% [2] Group 3: Investment and Asset Management - The company's net assets increased to 279.3 billion yuan, up 3.9% quarter-on-quarter, supported by effective asset-liability matching [3] - The total investment return rate for property and casualty insurance improved to 1.2%, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 0.4 percentage points [3] - The solvency ratios for core and comprehensive solvency were 216.3% and 237.5%, respectively, indicating a strong capital position [3] Group 4: Future Outlook - The company maintains a strong buy recommendation, anticipating continued profit growth driven by improved COR and NBV [4] - Projected net profits for 2025-2027 are 46.5 billion, 49.3 billion, and 51.1 billion yuan, with year-on-year growth rates of 8.4%, 6.0%, and 3.6% respectively [4] - The current closing price corresponds to dynamic P/B ratios of 1.08, 1.01, and 0.95 for 2025-2027 [4]