丨证券研究报告丨 市场策略丨点评报告 [Table_Title] 0826 A 股日评：大盘横盘震荡，低位消费板块 表现居前 报告要点 [Table_Summary] 今日 A 股市场早盘低开后震荡上行，上证指数至尾盘小幅下跌，整体量能小幅微缩，三大指数 涨跌互现，农产品、传媒互联网、社会服务板块领涨。 从指数表现来看，上证指数下跌 0.39%， 深证成指上涨 0.26%，创业板指下跌 0.76%，上证 50 下跌 0.67 %，沪深 300 下跌 0.37%，科 创 50 下跌 1.31 %，中证 1000 下跌 0.02%，市场成交额约 2.71 万亿元，全市场 2802 家上涨。 分析师及联系人 [Table_Author] 戴清 SAC：S0490524010002 SFC：BTR264 请阅读最后评级说明和重要声明 %% %% %% %% research.95579.com 1 [Table_Title 0826 A 股日评：大盘横盘震荡，低位消费板块 2] 表现居前 [Table_Summary2] 事件描述 今日 A 股市场早盘低开后震荡上行，上证指数至尾盘小幅下跌，整体量能小幅微缩，三大指数 ...

投资策略方面，波段操作与长线持有均获得较大比例支持，决策时投资者主要参考企业财报和宏观数据。 此外，指数化配置崛起，指数基金渐成权益投资偏好的品类；明星基金经理效应减弱，投资者筛选基金更看重基金经 理的从业经验及过往业绩。 从调查数据来看，基民正处于"情绪修复"与"理性投资"的交织中。在市场震荡上行过程中，"不赌短期波动、聚焦长期 价值"的理性配置思路，将是基民穿越周期的关键。 8月22日，上证指数突破3800点，刷新2015年6月以来逾十年新高。8月25日，上证指数继续上涨，逼近3900点。 此时，基金投资者的情绪与操作正在发生怎样的变化？中国基金报面向基金投资者开展"沪指突破3800点，你准备好了 么？"的专项调查。 此次调查收集到来自全国各地超5万份基金投资者问卷。从投资者结构来看，经历过一定牛熊周期考验的"成长型投资 者"成为主力，基金仍是多数人的核心配置品类；面对指数高位波动，近五成投资者对市场长期走势持乐观预期，但目 前选择"防御性减仓"；超七成受访者认为大盘有望继续突破压力位。 多数受访者认为，经济基本面、政策面因素是这轮行情的主要推手，也是接下来需要关注的重点；板块偏好上超半数 投资者看好科技 ...

Market Overview - The current market is characterized as a "water bull market," indicating a situation where liquidity is abundant but market sentiment is cautious, leading to a temporary supply shortage of market chips [1] - The term "water" signifies a market environment where valuation levels are detached from economic fundamentals, suggesting a speculative nature in the current bull market [1] Liquidity Dynamics - There is an excess of cash in the market due to continuously declining interest rates, prompting large institutions, including insurance companies, to shift assets from bond markets to stock markets [3] - In July, there was a significant decrease in resident deposits by 1.11 trillion yuan year-on-year, while non-bank financial institutions saw an increase of 2.14 trillion yuan, marking a ten-year high [3][4] Federal Reserve Impact - The likelihood of the Federal Reserve maintaining interest rates in September is 18.1%, while the probability of a 25 basis point cut is 81.9% [4] - A Fed rate cut is generally seen as favorable for the Chinese stock market, as it enhances global liquidity, although it does not guarantee immediate gains for A-shares [5][8] Investment Sentiment - The current market environment is described as having a cold macroeconomic backdrop but a hot liquidity and sentiment scenario, indicating a divergence between market performance and economic fundamentals [11] - Investment opportunities are expected to be more concentrated in structural stories such as "anti-involution" and technological self-reliance, rather than a broad-based bull market [11] Risk Considerations - While the margin trading balance and the number of new accounts have increased, they remain significantly lower than the peaks seen in 2015, suggesting that the current risk level is not particularly high [11]

Summary of Key Points Core Viewpoint - The report highlights the top short-selling stocks in the market, indicating significant investor sentiment and potential volatility in these companies' stock prices [1][2][3]. Short Selling Ratios - The top three stocks by short-selling ratio are: - Sun Hung Kai Properties-R (80016) at 100.00% - Lenovo Group-R (80992) at 98.00% - Tencent Holdings-R (80700) at 87.44% [2][3]. Short Selling Amounts - The leading stocks by short-selling amount are: - Xiaomi Group-W (01810) with a short-selling amount of 2.084 billion - Tencent Holdings (00700) at 1.612 billion - Pop Mart (09992) at 1.110 billion [1][3]. Deviation Values - The stocks with the highest deviation values are: - Tencent Holdings-R (80700) at 47.80% - Lenovo Group-R (80992) at 41.56% - China Mobile-R (80941) at 40.57% [1][3]. Additional Insights - The report provides a detailed table of the top ten stocks by short-selling ratios, amounts, and deviation values, indicating a trend of increased short-selling activity in certain sectors [2][3].

Group 1 - The core viewpoint indicates that the A-share market is showing positive signals, with the Shanghai Composite Index maintaining above 3500 points, suggesting a potential upward trend in the market [1] - The market is experiencing a broad-based rally, with over 3500 stocks rising, particularly in sectors such as engineering machinery, building materials, steel, and coal [1] - The trading volume in the Shanghai, Shenzhen, and North exchanges reached 1.1028 trillion yuan, reflecting strong market activity [1] Group 2 - The medium to long-term outlook for the A-share market remains bullish, supported by long-term funds entering the market, particularly from insurance capital [2] - There are structural opportunities emerging due to economic transformation, with a focus on high-margin assets, technology growth sectors, and consumer sectors boosted by policy support [2] - Specific sectors to watch include technology growth, military industry, and consumer sectors, alongside opportunities in mergers and acquisitions [2]

Core Viewpoint - The overall economic growth remains constrained, but improvements in emerging technologies and certain cyclical sectors are becoming increasingly evident [3] Group 1: Economic Overview - In Q2, the economy is characterized by "volume increase and weak prices," with improvements in exports and consumption but insufficient investment momentum [3] - As of July 16, 1531 companies have disclosed mid-year performance forecasts, with a positive forecast rate of 43.7%, lower than the past three years [3] - Estimated profit growth for the entire A-share market and non-financial A-shares in the first half of the year is 1.0% and 1.2%, respectively [3] Group 2: Sector Performance - The growth of new and old economies is increasingly divergent, with mid and downstream sectors performing better than upstream, particularly in high-tech industries like equipment manufacturing [3] - Industries such as technology hardware, resource products, and non-bank financials are experiencing rapid profit growth, with sectors like electronics, non-ferrous metals, and agriculture showing high growth forecasts [3] - Conversely, the real estate sector and consumer durables like automobiles and furniture are experiencing weaker growth [3] Group 3: Industrial Challenges - Industrial enterprises are facing challenges, with accounts receivable turnover declining and inventory turnover showing little improvement, indicating ongoing operational difficulties [4] - The overall gross profit margin for industrial enterprises is decreasing, leading to actual profits being weaker than reported profits [4] - Industries with noticeable improvements in turnover include military, non-ferrous metals, and agricultural products [4] Group 4: Emerging Technologies - Emerging technologies are the main area of improvement, particularly in globally competitive sectors where performance is accelerating due to domestic demand and export growth [5] - Industries benefiting from this trend include military, innovative pharmaceuticals, and media gaming, while AI capital expenditure is facing uncertainties [5] Group 5: Cyclical and Financial Sector Improvements - Certain cyclical products, such as rare earths and small metals, are seeing price increases, while sectors like steel and building materials are showing signs of performance improvement [6] - Non-bank financials are benefiting from capital market improvements, with active trading levels and a downward trend in risk-free interest rates contributing to high growth in brokerage and insurance sectors [6]

Core Insights - The 2025 China Financial Products Annual Report titled "Ecological Leap" has been officially released, marking the 14th consecutive year of publication by Huabao Securities [1][2] - The report emphasizes the industry's transition towards service-oriented wealth and asset management, a concept that gained traction in the previous year and has seen significant progress in 2024 [2] - The theme of this year's report, "Ecological Leap," reflects the need for collaborative efforts across the industry to reconstruct and upgrade the wealth ecosystem, indicating a profound transformation [2][3] Section Summaries Part One - Insights into the Wealth Ecosystem in 2024 - The report discusses the potential decline in yields for deposit-replacement products and the challenges in getting clients to accept net-value fixed-income products [3] - It explores insights from the "Fat Donglai" case for wealth management institutions and the hidden secrets behind investors' choices between funds and wealth management [3] - The impact of the trend towards tool-based and index-based investments on the competitive landscape of financial products is analyzed [3] Part Two - Review and Outlook of Various Financial Products - The report includes a comprehensive review of bank wealth management over the past 20 years, highlighting the return to net value [4] - It provides an overview of the public fund market, focusing on the ecological landscape and the challenges of low-profit margins [4] - The ETF market is examined, showcasing its rapid growth and the factors contributing to its success, including efficiency, transparency, and low costs [4] Part Three - Ecological Leap: Shaping a New Landscape for Wealth and Asset Management - The report compares cross-market financial products and discusses the cognitive load resulting from product homogeneity [6] - It emphasizes the importance of fund strategy indices in making fund investments more scientific and transparent [6] - The report addresses the role of large models in reshaping wealth management services and the evolution of practitioners within the ecological leap [6]

Core Insights - The 2025 China Financial Products Annual Report titled "Ecological Leap" has been officially released, marking the 14th consecutive year of publication by Huabao Securities [1][2] - The report emphasizes the industry's transition towards service-oriented wealth and asset management, a concept that gained traction in the previous year and has seen significant progress in 2024 [2] - The theme of this year's report, "Ecological Leap," reflects the need for collaborative efforts across the industry to reconstruct and upgrade the wealth ecosystem, indicating a profound transformation [2][3] Section Summaries Part One - Insights into the Wealth Ecosystem in 2024 - The report discusses the potential decline in yields for deposit-replacement products and the challenges in getting clients to accept net value fixed-income products [3] - It explores insights from the "Fat Donglai" case for wealth management institutions and the hidden secrets behind investor choices between funds and wealth management [3] - The impact of the trend towards tool-based and index-based investments on the competitive landscape of financial products is analyzed [3] Part Two - Review and Outlook of Various Financial Products Across Markets - The report includes a comprehensive review of bank wealth management over the past 20 years, highlighting the return to net value [4] - It provides an overview of the public fund market, focusing on the ecological landscape and the challenges of low-profit margins [4] - The ETF market is examined, showcasing its rapid growth and the innovative policies supporting its expansion [4] Part Three - Ecological Leap: Shaping a New Landscape for Wealth and Asset Management - The report compares financial products across markets, emphasizing the cognitive load due to product homogeneity and the depiction of risk-return profiles for fully integrated products [6] - It discusses the significance of fund strategy indices in making fund investments more scientific and the lessons learned from mature overseas experiences [6] - The report highlights the transformative impact of large models on wealth management services and the evolution of practitioners within the ecosystem [6]

Core Viewpoint - The 2025 China Financial Products Annual Report titled "Ecological Leap" emphasizes the transformation of the wealth and asset management industry towards a service-oriented model, highlighting the need for industry-wide collaboration and the reconstruction of the wealth ecosystem [2][3]. Group 1: Insights on Wealth Ecosystem - The report reflects on the past year's efforts and anticipates future explorations, noting that the industry has made significant strides towards service-oriented transformation [2]. - The concept of "Ecological Leap" is introduced as a comprehensive and profound transformation that requires collaboration across the industry [2][3]. - The value of research services is highlighted as essential for understanding trends and guiding industry transformation [2]. Group 2: Financial Products Overview - The report includes a detailed directory covering various financial products and their market outlooks, such as bank wealth management, public funds, ETFs, trust markets, and private equity funds [3][4][5]. - It addresses the challenges and opportunities in the financial product landscape, including the impact of low interest rates and the evolution of investment strategies [4][5]. Group 3: Future Directions - The report outlines the necessity for a shift in thinking towards a buyer's perspective, emphasizing the importance of collaborative evolution within the financial ecosystem [3]. - It discusses the implications of new financial products and strategies, including the integration of advanced models in wealth management services [6].

Core Insights - The 2025 China Financial Products Annual Report titled "Ecological Leap" has been officially released, marking the 14th consecutive year of publication by Huabao Securities [1][2] - The report emphasizes the industry's transition towards service-oriented wealth and asset management, a concept that gained traction in the previous year and has seen significant progress in 2024 [2] - The theme of this year's report, "Ecological Leap," reflects the need for collaborative efforts across the industry to reconstruct and upgrade the wealth ecosystem, indicating a profound transformation [2][3] Section Summaries Part One - Insights into the Wealth Ecosystem in 2024 - The report discusses the potential decline in yields for deposit-replacement products and the challenges in getting clients to accept net value fixed-income products [3] - It explores insights from the wealth management institution "Fat Donglai" and the hidden secrets behind investors' choices between funds and wealth management [3] - The impact of the trend towards tool-based and index-based investments on the competitive landscape of financial products is analyzed [3] Part Two - Review and Outlook of Various Financial Products - The report includes a comprehensive review of bank wealth management over the past 20 years, highlighting the return to net value [4] - It provides an overview of the public fund market, focusing on the ecological landscape and the challenges of low-profit margins [4] - The ETF market is examined, showcasing its rapid growth and the dual record highs in scale and market share [4] Part Three - Ecological Leap: Shaping a New Landscape for Wealth and Asset Management - The report compares cross-market financial products and emphasizes the cognitive load due to product homogeneity [6] - It discusses the significance of fund strategy indices in making fund investments more scientific and transparent [6] - The report highlights the transformative impact of large models on wealth management services, suggesting a shift in service paradigms [6]