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散户奇葩行为背后:那些被情绪操控的真金白银
Sou Hu Cai Jing· 2025-12-03 17:45
"赌徒式满仓" 暴露了对风险的漠视。小微账户中 90% 存在全仓押注行为,他们抱着 "一夜暴富" 的幻 想,将所有鸡蛋放在一个篮子里。广州股民小陈曾将 50 万本金全仓投入某题材股,起初赚了 20% 便自 诩 "股神",但一次政策调整就让股价跌停,因无资金补仓只能被动躺平,最终亏损 40% 离场。上交所 数据显示,这类高频满仓交易者的亏损比例高达 93%,而高净值账户因分散配置,盈利比例达 60%。 "一买就跌,一卖就涨" 的魔咒,实则是散户被自身奇葩行为反噬的结果。从行为金融学视角看,四大 看似荒诞的操作背后,藏着认知偏差与情绪失控的深层密码,让真金白银沦为情绪的祭品。 "抄底逃顶强迫症" 源于对完美的执念。散户总想着买在最低点、卖在最高点,却忘了 "底是区域不是 点"。2025 年某科技股从 100 元跌至 60 元时,股民老王认定 "跌透了" 果断抄底,结果股价一路跌至 30 元,上演 "抄在半山腰" 的惨剧;而当这只股票反弹至 80 元时,他又因害怕回调匆忙卖出,错失后续翻 倍行情。这种总想赚尽最后一分钱的心态,反而让大部分收益擦肩而过。 "线性外推幻觉" 让散户沦为趋势的囚徒。股价大涨时认定 "会一 ...
【笔记20250516— “降息”降出“加息”的感觉】
债券笔记· 2025-05-17 12:11
Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the recent market fluctuations and the tendency of investors to engage in "revenge trading" after experiencing losses or missed opportunities, indicating a psychological response to market volatility [1]. Group 1: Market Conditions - The central bank conducted a 1,065 billion yuan 7-day reverse repurchase operation, with 770 billion yuan reverse repos maturing today, resulting in a net injection of 295 billion yuan [2]. - The interbank funding market showed a tightening trend in the morning, with the funding rates significantly rising; DR001 and DR007 increased by 22 basis points and 11 basis points, respectively, reaching around 1.63% [2]. - The bond market sentiment was cautious, with the 10-year government bond yield opening at 1.67% and peaking at 1.685%, reflecting a weak issuance sentiment for 20-year bonds [4]. Group 2: Trading Dynamics - The trading volume in the repo market showed a decline, with R001 at 59,107.07 million yuan, down by 6,446.34 million yuan, and R007 at 7,625.09 million yuan, up by 687.90 million yuan [3]. - The overall market saw a slight decline in stock prices, with the sentiment in the bond market remaining cautious and the funding rates fluctuating throughout the day [4]. - The article notes that each "rate cut" tends to create a feeling of "rate hike," indicating a cyclical nature of market reactions to monetary policy changes [5].
【笔记20250220— 川剧变脸 VS 喜剧演员】
债券笔记· 2025-02-20 13:48
资金面全天偏紧,资金价格再走高,DR001上至1.95%附近、DR007上至2.06%附近。 | | | | 银行间资金 | (2025. 02. 20) | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 回购代码 | 加权利率 | 变化 | 利率走势 | 威尚利率 | 变化 | 成交量 | 变化量 | 成交量占 | | | (%) | (bp) | (近30天) | (%) | (bp) | (亿元) | (亿元) | 比 (%) | | R001 | 2.08 | 7 | | 3.13 | 23 | 42295.74 | 975. 40 | 82. 47 | | R007 | 2.16 | 8 | | 2. 50 | -5 | 7287. 15 | -1128. 45 | 14. 21 | | R014 | 2.27 | র্ব | | 3. 30 | 70 | 1587. 81 | 292. 31 | 3.10 | | R1M | 2. 07 | | 11 | 2. 70 | -60 | 64.63 | ~17,37 ...