（数据来源：WIND资讯，平安基金整理，截至20250815） 以上内容与数据，与有连云立场无关，不构成投资建议。据此操作，风险自担。 机构指出，择券思路上，从曲线静态及持有性价比来看，国债各期限区别不大，优先关注个券凸点和流动性强的；国开需 要规避6-9Y；农发可以关注7Y位置；口行规避6Y，8-9Y；二级资本债关注6Y。（10Y及以内选择）10年国开方面，当前 250210-250215利差在-1BP左右，近期投资者更偏好主力券，10年国债、30年国债主力券也与其他券利差有所走扩，但考虑 250215存量规模已经达到3510亿元，大概率会成为下一个国开主力券，目前250215成交量也正在抬升并接近250210，预计 短时间可能会切换为主力券，持有赔率较好，可以重点关注。30年国债方面，目前2500005-2500002利差在6BP左右，由于 新券票息征收增值税，所以30年换券进度较慢，当前市场又遭遇调整，故主力券被偏好的概率更大，近期表现稍强。今天 会发行新的10年和30年国债，新券可能会因为增值税原因而换券进度稍慢，但主力券切换终究是大概率事件，且当前主力 券利率相对又较低，性价比不强，建议可以关注非主 ...

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the current financial landscape, highlighting a tight funding environment, a slight decline in long-term bond yields, and the impact of central bank actions on the stock and bond markets [2][4]. Group 1: Monetary Policy and Market Reactions - The central bank conducted a net injection of 3,457 billion yuan through reverse repos, with a total of 5,803 billion yuan in 7-day reverse repos initiated [2][4]. - The funding rates showed an upward trend due to a tight funding environment, with DR001 around 1.47% and DR007 at approximately 1.55% [2][4]. - The stock market experienced slight declines amidst these monetary policy adjustments, reflecting a "stock-bond seesaw" effect [4]. Group 2: Economic Indicators - The youth unemployment rate reached 17.8% in July, the highest in 11 months, compared to 14.5% in June, indicating growing economic challenges for younger demographics [4]. - The article notes that while housing prices are at new lows and consumer prices are low, the stock market is at new highs, suggesting a complex economic environment [4]. Group 3: Bond Market Performance - The bond market showed cautious sentiment, with the 10-year government bond yield peaking at 1.783% before retreating to around 1.766% [4]. - The article highlights a specific bond (250210) with a high borrowing concentration of 44%, making it susceptible to being "squeezed" in the market [4].

Core Viewpoint - The equity market has shown significant growth, with the Shanghai Composite Index achieving an 8-day winning streak, while the bond market has also performed well, indicating a new trend of "dual bull" in both markets [1][2][4]. Group 1: Equity Market Performance - The stock market experienced a strong upward trend, with the Shanghai Composite Index surpassing the high point from October 8 of the previous year, reaching a nearly 4-year high [2]. - The total trading volume in the Shanghai and Shenzhen markets reached 2.15 trillion yuan, marking a return to above 2 trillion yuan after 114 trading days [2]. Group 2: Bond Market Performance - The bond market saw a comprehensive increase in government bond futures, with the 30-year main contract rising by 0.10% to 118.270 yuan, and the 10-year main contract increasing by 0.02% to 108.435 yuan [2]. - Major interest rate bonds in the interbank market experienced a decline in yields, with the 10-year government bond yield falling by 0.75 basis points to 1.72% [2]. Group 3: Market Dynamics and Future Outlook - Analysts suggest that the market is becoming desensitized to the "stock-bond seesaw" effect, indicating a potential return to fundamental factors driving both equity and bond markets [4][6]. - Future expectations indicate that the 10-year government bond yield may stabilize around 1.65%-1.70% as new bonds are issued, leading to a revaluation of interest rate bonds [4]. - The outlook for the second half of the year suggests a "dual bull" market, with equity investments focusing on structural opportunities in the new economy, while the bond market is characterized by a low-growth, low-inflation, and low-interest-rate environment [6].

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the current state of the bond market, highlighting the impact of tax policy changes on bond yields and market sentiment, particularly in response to the recent announcement of reinstating value-added tax on government bond interest income [3][5]. Group 1: Market Conditions - The bond market experienced a "roller coaster" effect due to the sudden announcement of reinstating value-added tax on government bond interest, leading to fluctuations in yields [5]. - The 10-year government bond yield initially rose by 1 basis point before dropping by 2 basis points, reflecting market reactions to the tax news [5]. - The overall sentiment in the bond market was slightly weak, with the 10-year government bond yield closing at 1.6975% after a brief rise [5]. Group 2: Economic Indicators - The S&P Global Manufacturing PMI for July was reported at 49.5, below expectations and the previous value of 50.4, indicating a contraction in manufacturing activity [5]. - The stock market and commodity performance were also weak, contributing to a cautious market environment [5]. Group 3: Monetary Policy and Liquidity - The central bank conducted a 7-day reverse repurchase operation of 126 billion yuan, with a net withdrawal of 66.33 billion yuan due to maturing reverse repos [3]. - The funding rates showed a notable decline, with DR001 around 1.31% and DR007 at approximately 1.42%, indicating a balanced and slightly loose liquidity environment [3].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - On July 28, at the end of the month, the central bank conducted continuous large - scale net injections, resulting in a balanced and slightly loose capital market. The bond market continued its upward trend, while the convertible bond market adjusted, with most convertible bond issues declining. Yields on US Treasury bonds of various maturities generally increased, and yields on 10 - year government bonds of major European economies generally decreased [1]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Bond Market News - **Domestic News**: - On July 28, China and the US held economic and trade talks in Stockholm, Sweden, aiming to translate the important consensus of the two heads of state into specific policies and actions [3]. - During the 14th Five - Year Plan period, the national cumulative new tax and fee cuts are expected to reach 10.5 trillion yuan, and export tax rebates are expected to exceed 9 trillion yuan [3]. - The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology emphasized eight key tasks for the second half of the year, including implementing the strategy of expanding domestic demand and promoting high - quality development of key industrial chains [4]. - The national childcare subsidy program was announced. Starting from January 1, 2025, families with children under 3 years old can receive an annual subsidy of 3,600 yuan per child [4]. - **International News**: The US Treasury Department expects net borrowing of 1.007 trillion US dollars from July to September this year, an increase of more than 450 billion US dollars from the previous forecast, mainly due to the impact of the debt ceiling. It also expects net borrowing of 590 billion US dollars from October to December [6]. - **Commodities**: On July 28, WTI September crude oil futures rose 2.38% to 66.71 US dollars per barrel, Brent September crude oil futures rose 2.34% to 70.04 US dollars per barrel, COMEX August gold futures fell 0.77% to 3,310 US dollars per ounce, and NYMEX natural gas prices fell 2.04% to 3.032 US dollars per ounce [7]. 3.2 Capital Market - **Open Market Operations**: On July 28, the central bank conducted 495.8 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase operations at a fixed - rate, quantity - tender method, with a net injection of 325.1 billion yuan [9]. - **Funding Rates**: On July 28, due to the central bank's continuous large - scale net injections, major repurchase rates declined. DR001 dropped 5.53bp to 1.462%, and DR007 dropped 7.17bp to 1.581% [10]. 3.3 Bond Market Dynamics - **Interest - rate Bonds**: - **Spot Bond Yield Trends**: On July 28, the bond market continued its upward trend. By 20:00 Beijing time, the yield of the 10 - year Treasury bond active issue 250011 fell 1.75bp to 1.7150%, and the yield of the 10 - year CDB bond active issue 250210 fell 2.75bp to 1.8000% [13]. - **Bond Tendering**: Information on the tendering of several bonds such as 25Nongfa Discount 06 (Add 3) and 25Guokai 06 (Add 25) was provided, including maturity, issuance scale, winning yield, etc. [14]. - **Credit Bonds**: - **Secondary - market Transaction Abnormalities**: On July 28, the transaction prices of 5 industrial bonds deviated by more than 10%. For example, "24Yuanhang Holdings PPN001 (Restructuring)" fell more than 13%, and "H1Bidi 01" rose more than 350% [14]. - **Credit Bond Events**: Multiple companies announced various events, such as Jingfeng Pharmaceutical failing to repay a 117 - million - yuan loan, Zhengbang Technology's subsidiary entering pre - reorganization, etc. [15]. - **Convertible Bonds**: - **Equity and Convertible Bond Indexes**: On July 28, the three major A - share stock indexes rose, with the Shanghai Composite Index, Shenzhen Component Index, and ChiNext Index rising 0.12%, 0.44%, and 0.96% respectively. The major convertible bond indexes fell, with the CSI Convertible Bond Index, Shanghai Convertible Bond Index, and Shenzhen Convertible Bond Index falling 0.70%, 0.62%, and 0.81% respectively [16]. - **Convertible Bond Tracking**: Taifu Convertible Bond announced not to redeem early and will not choose early redemption if the early - redemption clause is triggered again within the next three months [18]. - **Overseas Bond Markets**: - **US Bond Market**: On July 28, the yield of the 2 - year US Treasury bond remained unchanged at 3.91%, while yields on other maturities generally increased. The 10 - year US Treasury bond yield rose 2bp to 4.42% [21]. - **European Bond Market**: On July 28, the yield of the 10 - year UK government bond rose 3bp, while yields on 10 - year government bonds of other major European economies generally decreased. For example, the yield of the 10 - year German government bond fell 3bp to 2.69% [24]. - **Price Changes of Chinese - funded US - dollar Bonds**: As of the close on July 28, price changes of various Chinese - funded US - dollar bonds were provided, including daily changes, credit entities, bond balances, etc. [26].

Core Viewpoint - The bond market rebounded on July 15, driven by a series of significant economic data released by the National Bureau of Statistics, indicating resilience in the domestic economy and supporting the likelihood of achieving the annual GDP growth target of 5% [1][2]. Economic Data Summary - The GDP growth rate for the first half of the year was reported at 5.3%, exceeding market expectations [1]. - Industrial added value in June increased by 6.8% year-on-year, up from a previous value of 5.8% [1]. - Retail sales of consumer goods in June totaled 42,287 billion yuan, with a year-on-year growth of 4.8%, down from 6.4% previously [1]. - Fixed asset investment (excluding rural households) grew by 2.8% year-on-year in the first half, compared to a previous growth of 3.7% [1]. Market Reaction - The bond market saw a significant increase, with the 30-year government bond futures rising by 0.53%, marking the largest increase since May 30 [1]. - By the end of the trading day, all government bond futures closed higher, with the 30-year main contract up 0.47% to 120.760 yuan, and the 10-year main contract up 0.18% to 108.890 yuan [2]. - The yields on major interbank bonds mostly declined, with the 10-year government bond yield falling by 1.06 basis points to 1.656% [2]. Trading Behavior - The primary buyers in the bond market on July 15 were banking institutions, while brokers and funds were the main sellers [4]. Future Outlook - Southwest Securities indicated that traditional seasonal factors affecting the bond market in the third quarter may have limited impact in 2025, with overall market sentiment remaining active [5]. - Analysts noted that despite recent adjustments in the bond market, key variables influencing bond direction, such as fundamentals and central bank attitudes, have not changed [5].

Group 1 - The report indicates that the bond market is currently experiencing adjustments due to a self-correction of excessive risk appetite, with significant fluctuations observed from July 9 to 11, where daily adjustments exceeded 1 basis point [1][22][25] - Despite the frequent negative rotations in the bond market, key variables influencing the market direction, such as fundamentals, central bank attitudes, and external circulation pressures, have not changed [1][25][37] - The report highlights that the bond market's pricing reference may shift from the stock market to fundamentals as economic data is released, indicating a weak correlation between stock market rebounds and bond market pricing [3][36] Group 2 - The report notes that the recent adjustments in the bond market have led to the 10-year and 30-year government bonds returning to relatively high positions at 1.65% and 1.85%, respectively, making the market more sensitive to positive news and less responsive to negative news [4][37] - It emphasizes that the liquidity situation will be a critical observation period for the central bank's attitude, especially with a significant funding gap expected in mid-July [4][26][39] - The report suggests that despite recent increases in funding prices, overnight rates remain relatively low, indicating that leverage strategies may still be preferred in July [6][39][40] Group 3 - The report discusses the impact of recent adjustments in the bond market, where the duration of bond funds has decreased, reflecting a shift in market behavior as institutions reduce their duration amid tightening liquidity [6][24][25] - It also mentions that the government bond issuance volume remains above 400 billion, indicating ongoing government financing activities [6][21] - The report highlights that the leverage ratio in the non-bank sector has decreased significantly, indicating a market-wide trend towards deleveraging [6][24] Group 4 - The report outlines the recent changes in the interest rate environment, with the overnight rates rising to 1.40% and 1.51% for R001 and R007, respectively, indicating a tightening liquidity situation [15][25][26] - It notes that the recent adjustments in the bond market have led to a significant increase in the issuance rates of certificates of deposit, reflecting rising costs for banks [29][30] - The report also highlights the ongoing adjustments in the credit bond market, particularly in the long-end segment, where yields have been affected by negative rotations [17][16] Group 5 - The report indicates that the recent changes in tariffs by the U.S. government may have implications for global trade dynamics, with increased tariffs on key countries potentially impacting the bond market [31][32] - It suggests that the market is currently cautious regarding tariff changes, with a wait-and-see approach being adopted by investors [31][32] - The report emphasizes that the bond market's response to external factors, such as tariffs, may not be immediate, and investors are advised to monitor developments closely [31][32]

Group 1 - The report indicates a slight decrease in leverage in the interbank bond market, with a mixed performance in the primary market and overall positive sentiment in the secondary market, leading to an increase in bond duration and active trading of ultra-long bonds [2][4][7] - In the funding market, the demand for expansion has cooled, with a decrease in net inflow for major borrowing parties and an increase in net inflow for major lending parties. The total balance of repos in the interbank market has risen, while the leverage ratio has slightly decreased [4][7][8] - The primary market saw a divergence in bidding multiples, with a rise in the bidding multiple for 10-year government bonds, while the multiples for policy bonds decreased. The spread between primary and secondary prices has widened [17][19] Group 2 - The secondary market has shown active trading in ultra-long bonds, with an increase in turnover rates for 30-year government bonds and a rise in the average duration of medium- and long-term pure bond funds. The total borrowing volume for bonds has decreased, and the proportion of active bonds has also declined [26][30] - Major buyers have increased net purchases of ultra-long bonds, while net purchases of short, medium, and long-term bonds have decreased. Major sellers have increased net sales of medium and long-term bonds, while the selling pressure on short and ultra-long bonds has weakened [26][30][33] - The report highlights that large commercial banks have continued to net buy short-term bonds within 3 years, while maintaining significant net selling pressure on ultra-long bonds of 10 years and above [34][36] Group 3 - In June, the data on wealth management did not show a significant seasonal decline, with a slight increase in wealth management scale during the week of June 22. The total wealth management scale decreased by 204.2 billion yuan, primarily due to a reduction in fixed-income products [34][36] - The fund scale increased by 299.9 billion yuan in June, with both equity and bond funds seeing significant increases. However, the issuance of new bond funds saw a slight decline compared to the previous week [36][37]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the content. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - In the second quarter, the growth rate of fixed - asset investment slowed down. Given the external uncertainties in the second half of the year, the necessity of stabilizing investment has increased. The new policy - based financial instruments proposed in the April Politburo meeting have attracted high market attention. There is a high probability that the instruments will be implemented in the short term, and the third quarter may be the period for the implementation of broad - credit policies, which will affect the bond market sentiment [1][24]. - The risk of crossing the half - year is controllable, but the institutional fund arrangement is relatively slow. The large - bank net lending scale has significantly increased, and the inter - bank cross - quarter fund progress is relatively slow [3]. - Since June, the bond market's spread exploration has shifted from the mid - term to the ultra - long - term. However, investors should flexibly stop losses and realize profits [4]. - In the bond market this week, the LuJiaZui Conference did not meet expectations, and the yield fluctuated within a narrow range. The central bank's OMO continued net withdrawals, and the capital market was balanced and loose. The net financing of national bonds and policy - based financial bonds decreased, while that of local bonds and inter - bank certificates of deposit increased. The term spread of national bonds widened, and that of China Development Bank bonds narrowed [10][54]. 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 New Policy - based Financial Instruments: Progress - The necessity of stabilizing investment has increased due to the slowdown of fixed - asset investment growth in the second quarter and external uncertainties in the second half of the year. Since May, local governments have accelerated the project reserve of policy - based financial instruments, with a possible quota of 500 billion yuan, and the support for science and technology and consumption infrastructure construction may be prioritized [1][14]. - Referring to the experience in 2022, it took about two months from the release of the instrument quota to the completion of the investment, with a relatively fast pace. The policy - based financial supply in 2022 had a leverage ratio of over 4.7 times for credit and over 10 times for infrastructure investment [17]. - The third quarter may be the period for the implementation of broad - credit policies, and attention should be paid to the impact on the bond market sentiment [24]. 3.2 Cross - half - year Risk is Controllable, and Institutional Fund Arrangement is Slow - This week, the tax period passed smoothly. After the tax period, the capital sentiment tightened briefly, which may be related to the increase in the bond market leverage level. The central bank's operations remained relatively active, and the reverse - repurchase balance was at a seasonal high [3]. - The large - bank net lending scale has significantly increased, with the single - day net lending scale reaching 5.3 trillion yuan, a record high for the same period. As of June 20, the inter - bank cross - quarter fund progress was 12%, lower than the previous level. The cross - half - year risk is expected to be relatively controllable [28]. 3.3 Bond Market Strategy: Spread Exploration Shifts from the Mid - term to the Ultra - long - term, but Flexibly Stop Losses and Realize Profits - From April to May, the bond market fully explored the spreads of mid - term interest - rate varieties. The spread quantile of mid - term varieties decreased from 75% - 96% to 44% at the end of May, with limited room for further compression [34]. - In June, the spread exploration shifted to the ultra - long - term. The best - performing maturities since April have experienced two rounds of "short - term → mid - term → ultra - long - term" rotation. The recent ultra - long - term market, mainly driven by trading desks such as funds and other products, is due to the strong demand for capital gains in a low - interest - rate environment and the expected opening of the bond - allocation space for insurance companies in the third quarter [4][37]. - Investors should continue to pay attention to the cost - effectiveness of the ultra - long - term bonds and stop losses and realize profits at appropriate times, such as when the ultra - long - term spreads are fully explored, if the central bank announces bond purchases at the end of June, and in July [5]. 3.4 Bond Market Review: The LuJiaZui Conference did not Meet Expectations, and the Yield Fluctuated within a Narrow Range - **Funding**: The central bank's OMO continued net withdrawals, and the capital market was balanced and loose. The weighted price of DR001 fell back to around 1.37%, and the issuance price of 1 - year national - share bank certificates of deposit dropped to 1.63% [11]. - **Primary Issuance**: The net financing of national bonds and policy - based financial bonds decreased, while that of local bonds and inter - bank certificates of deposit increased [59]. - **Benchmark Changes**: The term spread of national bonds widened, and that of China Development Bank bonds narrowed. The short - term performance of national bonds was better than that of the long - term, while the long - term performance of China Development Bank bonds was better than that of the short - term [54].

Market Overview - The bond market is currently in a "full bow" state, with the median duration of interest rate bond funds reaching a historical high of 5.25 years as of June 20, 2025[1] - The leverage ratio for non-bank financial institutions is approximately 113.9%, up from a low of 113.5% in mid-February 2025, but still below the historical peak of 118.5%[1] Yield Spread Analysis - The yield spread between new and old bonds has been fully explored, with the yield on long-term active bonds declining by about 5 basis points, while older bonds have seen declines of 8-9 basis points[2] - The yield spread between 10-year national development bonds and national treasury bonds has narrowed from a high of 7.2 basis points to the current 3.7 basis points[2] Market Dynamics - The bond market has been characterized by a lack of clear direction, with 12 historical rounds of yield spread compression analyzed, showing that 8 rounds occurred in uncertain market conditions[3] - The compression of yield spreads is often concluded by clear market signals such as interest rate cuts or significant supply increases, which could lead to a re-expansion of spreads[3] Future Outlook - The process of compressing yield spreads may continue until the central bank initiates bond purchases or provides stronger signals, such as allowing treasury bonds to meet reserve requirements[4] - The market is expected to experience increased volatility following the implementation of new monetary policies, particularly around natural easing points like the beginning of a quarter[4] Risk Factors - Potential risks include unexpected adjustments in monetary policy, liquidity changes, and fiscal policy shifts that could impact market stability[5]