Core Insights - The retail sales of passenger cars in China from November 1-9 reached 415,000 units, representing a year-on-year decline of 19% and a month-on-month decrease of 4%. Cumulatively, retail sales for the year have reached 19.671 million units, showing a year-on-year growth of 7% [1][4] - Wholesale sales of passenger cars during the same period totaled 468,000 units, down 22% year-on-year but up 48% month-on-month. Year-to-date wholesale sales stand at 24.242 million units, reflecting an 11% increase compared to the previous year [1][8] - The retail market for new energy vehicles (NEVs) saw 265,000 units sold from November 1-9, a 5% decline year-on-year but a 16% increase month-on-month. Year-to-date NEV retail sales have reached 10.415 million units, marking a 21% increase [1][4] Retail Market Performance - The average daily retail sales for the first week of November were 46,000 units, down 19% year-on-year and 4% month-on-month. The overall retail performance in early November is considered weak compared to the previous year, despite a slight year-on-year growth [4][7] - The decline in retail sales is attributed to tightened policies on trade-in and scrappage subsidies, leading to a negative growth in October. The retail of fuel vehicles has also seen a 10% decline [4][8] Wholesale Market Performance - The first week of November saw an average daily wholesale of 52,000 units, down 22% year-on-year but up 48% month-on-month. The wholesale market is experiencing a rebound in enthusiasm, with dealers becoming more proactive in inventory replenishment [7][8] - The overall wholesale performance for November 1-9 was 468,000 units, with a significant month-on-month increase driven by improved market conditions and proactive dealer behavior [8] New Energy Vehicle Market - The penetration rate of new energy vehicles in the retail market reached 64% during the first nine days of November, while the wholesale penetration rate was 65.4% [1] - The NEV market continues to show resilience, with cumulative retail sales for the year indicating strong growth despite recent declines in the short term [1][4] Used Car Market - The used car market is experiencing rapid growth, with a total transaction volume of 14.73 million units in the first nine months of 2025, reflecting a 3.6% year-on-year increase. The transaction value reached 946.2 billion yuan, a 0.7% increase [9] - The potential for growth in the used car market, particularly for NEVs, remains significant despite some regions exceeding their subsidy targets [9]

Core Viewpoint - The automotive market in June experienced strong growth driven by the "two new" policies, with retail sales of narrow passenger vehicles reaching 2.083 million units, a year-on-year increase of 18.2% and a month-on-month increase of 7.5% [1] Group 1: June Market Review - The retail sales of new energy vehicles in June reached 1.111 million units, showing a year-on-year growth of 29.9% and a month-on-month growth of 8.2%, with a penetration rate rising to 53.3% [1] Group 2: July Market Outlook - The July automotive market is expected to maintain stable year-on-year growth, driven by the "trade-in and scrapping" policies, despite some demand being pulled forward due to June's sales surge [2] Group 3: Manufacturer Sales Trends - Retail targets for leading manufacturers are projected to grow by 6% year-on-year in July, with an estimated total retail market for narrow passenger vehicles around 1.85 million units, a year-on-year increase of 7.6% but a month-on-month decrease of 11.2% [3] Group 4: Weekly Sales Trends - The first week of July saw a normal seasonal decline in sales, with daily retail averaging 39,700 units, a year-on-year increase of 1.2% but a month-on-month decrease of 5.8% [4] - The second week showed a recovery with daily retail reaching 47,500 units, a year-on-year increase of 11.3% [4] - The third week recorded daily retail of 58,200 units, a year-on-year increase of 16.8% [4] - The fourth week is expected to see daily sales of 68,100 units, a year-on-year increase of 7.6% [4] - Overall, July's retail market is estimated to reach around 1.85 million units [4] Group 5: Stable Operation in July - The automotive market is experiencing a typical seasonal decline due to the early release of consumer potential from June's sales push and the summer break for manufacturers [5] - The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology is working to regulate the competitive order in the new energy vehicle industry, aiming to shift from price wars to value competition focused on technology upgrades and service quality [5] - The overall market discount in early July stabilized around 25%, indicating a reduction in promotional intensity compared to late June [5] - The "trade-in and scrapping" policy continues to support market stability, although some regions face temporary pauses in subsidies due to early depletion of funds [5]

Group 1 - The implementation of the vehicle trade-in policy has led to a significant increase in the number of vehicles being scrapped, with 322.5 million applications for subsidies by May 11, 2025, and 103.5 million vehicles scrapped, accounting for nearly one-third of the total [2][3] - The number of scrapped vehicles reached 7.872 million in 2024, a year-on-year increase of 70.7%, with over 2.92 million vehicles scrapped and more than 3.7 million vehicles replaced, generating over 920 billion yuan in sales [3] - The current trend shows that many vehicles with low mileage and good condition are being scrapped due to the higher subsidies offered, raising concerns about the waste of still-valuable vehicles [4][5] Group 2 - Industry experts have differing opinions on the scrapping of relatively new vehicles, with some arguing that older vehicles are often outdated in design and energy efficiency, while others believe that vehicles around ten years old still have significant value and should not be scrapped prematurely [5][6] - The recycling industry for scrapped vehicles is still in its early stages, with many reusable parts being treated as waste, indicating a need for improved standards and practices in the dismantling process [6][7] - There is potential for exporting scrapped vehicles to markets with high demand, such as Southeast Asia and Africa, where older vehicles may still hold value, suggesting a need for policy optimization regarding the export of used vehicles [8]