Core Viewpoint - The automotive market in December is expected to show a slight month-on-month increase in retail sales, but a significant year-on-year decline, with a focus on the impact of policy changes and market dynamics [1][3][6] Group 1: Market Performance - The retail market for narrow passenger vehicles in December is projected to reach approximately 2.3 million units, reflecting a month-on-month increase of 3.4% but a year-on-year decrease of 12.7% [1][3] - Retail sales of new energy vehicles (NEVs) are expected to be around 1.38 million units, with a penetration rate of 60% [1][3] Group 2: Monthly Market Review - In November, retail sales of narrow passenger vehicles totaled 2.225 million units, marking a year-on-year decline of 8.1% and a month-on-month decrease of 1.1% [2] - NEV retail sales in November reached 1.321 million units, showing a year-on-year growth of 4.2% and a month-on-month increase of 3.0%, with a market penetration rate of 59.3% [2] Group 3: Weekly Sales Trends - The first week of December saw an average daily retail of 42,000 units, a year-on-year decline of 32.3% and a month-on-month decrease of 7.8% [4][5] - The second week experienced a recovery with an average daily retail of 67,000 units, a year-on-year decline of 16.8% but a month-on-month increase of 8.8% [4][5] - The average daily retail is expected to rise to 118,000 units in the fifth week, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 9.3% but a month-on-month decrease of 4.8% [4][5] Group 4: Policy and Market Dynamics - The automotive market is transitioning to a normalized seasonal operation as multiple consumer stimulus policies are being phased out [6] - The adjustment of the new energy vehicle purchase tax subsidy from full exemption to half exemption is anticipated to influence consumer behavior, although no significant "last-minute rush" effect has been observed [6] - Several automakers have introduced "tax coverage plans" to stabilize consumer expectations amid policy changes, which may lead to some demand being postponed [6] - The industry is moving towards a more rational competitive environment, with new guidelines aimed at curbing irrational competition and promoting value-based competition [6]

Core Viewpoint - The automotive market in China is experiencing a slowdown due to the withdrawal of replacement subsidies and consumer hesitation, with a notable decline in overall vehicle sales while the new energy vehicle (NEV) segment shows some resilience [2][7]. Group 1: November Market Review - As of mid-November, the retail sales of narrow-sense passenger vehicles reached 2.225 million units, a year-on-year decrease of 8.1% and a month-on-month decrease of 1.1% [2]. - In contrast, the retail sales of new energy narrow-sense passenger vehicles were 1.321 million units, showing a year-on-year growth of 4.2% and a month-on-month growth of 3.0%, with a market penetration rate of 59.3% [2]. Group 2: December Market Outlook - December is traditionally a peak season for the automotive market, with manufacturers leveraging the "Double Twelve" e-commerce event for promotions to boost annual sales targets [3]. - Despite the withdrawal of the old-for-new subsidy increasing consumer hesitation, the market is gradually returning to a seasonal norm due to year-end demand and expectations of reduced purchase tax subsidies [3]. Group 3: Manufacturer Sales Trends - Due to the significant adjustment of the old-for-new policy in November, most manufacturers have a neutral to conservative sales outlook for December, with major manufacturers maintaining or slightly increasing their retail targets compared to November [4]. - The estimated retail market size for December is approximately 2.3 million units, reflecting a month-on-month increase of 3.4% but a year-on-year decrease of 12.7%. The expected retail volume for new energy vehicles is around 1.38 million units, with a penetration rate of 60% [4]. Group 4: Weekly Sales Trends - In the first week of December, daily retail sales averaged 42,000 units, a year-on-year decline of 32.3% and a month-on-month decline of 7.8% [5]. - The second week saw an increase in daily retail sales to 67,000 units, a year-on-year decline of 16.8% but a month-on-month increase of 8.8% due to promotional efforts [5]. - The overall estimated retail market for December remains at 2.3 million units, with a month-on-month increase of 3.4% and a year-on-year decrease of 12.7% [5][6]. Group 5: Market Normalization Post-Policy Changes - The automotive market is currently in an adjustment phase following the exit of multiple consumer stimulus policies, with growth momentum shifting towards a demand-supply driven seasonal operation [7]. - As the new energy vehicle purchase tax subsidy transitions from full exemption to a 50% reduction, there has not been a significant "last-minute rush" effect observed in the market [7]. - Several automakers, including Weilai, Xiaopeng, and Aito, have introduced "tax coverage plans" to stabilize consumer expectations and mitigate market fluctuations caused by policy changes [7].

Group 1 - The automotive stocks are experiencing a downturn, with GAC Group down 3.02% at HKD 3.85, Li Auto down 2.66% at HKD 65.75, and Xpeng Motors down 2.05% at HKD 73.9 [1] - According to the China Passenger Car Association, retail sales of narrow passenger vehicles are projected to be approximately 2.225 million units in November 2025, representing a year-on-year decline of 8.1% and a month-on-month decrease of 1.1%, marking the first year-on-year negative growth in retail sales for the automotive market in 2023 [1] - From December 1 to 7, retail sales in the passenger car market reached 297,000 units, a year-on-year decrease of 32% compared to the same period last year and an 8% decline compared to the previous month [1] Group 2 - CITIC Securities believes that the Central Economic Work Conference emphasizes the importance of domestic demand, aiming to build a strong domestic market and optimize the implementation of the "two new" policies, with a clear indication that the national subsidy policy will continue into 2026 [1] - Recent data shows that leading automotive companies are experiencing weaker month-on-month sales, and the anticipated "tail effect" from year-end stocking has not materialized, with some regions suspending trade-in subsidies, leading to low market sentiment [1] - The firm remains optimistic about the high-end development of domestic passenger vehicles, a strong new vehicle cycle, and the overseas expansion of leading new energy vehicle companies [1]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article indicates that the retail market for narrow passenger cars is expected to be around 2.25 million units in November, showing a month-on-month stability but a year-on-year decline of 8.7% [1] - The estimated retail sales of new energy vehicles (NEVs) could reach approximately 1.35 million units, with a penetration rate expected to rise to 60% [1]

Core Viewpoint - The automotive market in November is entering a year-end sprint phase, supported by manufacturers' "Double Eleven" promotional activities, but consumer sentiment is affected by adjustments in trade-in and subsidy policies, leading to increased uncertainty in the market [1] Market Overview - The narrow passenger vehicle retail market is expected to reach approximately 2.25 million units in November, remaining stable month-on-month but showing a year-on-year decline of 8.7% [1] - The retail sales of new energy vehicles are projected to be around 1.35 million units, with a penetration rate expected to rise to 60% [1]

Market Overview - In October, the Chinese automotive market showed strong performance at the beginning of the month due to National Day promotions, new car launches, and trade-in policies, but slowed down later due to adjustments in trade-in subsidies [2] - The retail sales of narrow-sense passenger vehicles reached 2.25 million units in October, a slight year-on-year decrease of 0.5% and a month-on-month increase of 0.3% [2] - New energy vehicles (NEVs) accounted for 1.288 million units sold, representing a year-on-year growth of 7.3% and a penetration rate of 57% [2] November Market Outlook - The automotive market in November is expected to maintain a strong sales momentum, aided by manufacturers' "Double Eleven" promotional activities [2] - However, adjustments in trade-in and subsidy policies across most provinces have created uncertainty, leading to a more neutral sales outlook among manufacturers [3] - The estimated retail market size for narrow-sense passenger vehicles in November is around 2.25 million units, which is flat month-on-month but down 8.7% year-on-year [3][5] Weekly Sales Trends - The first week of November saw an average daily retail of 46,000 units, a year-on-year decline of 19% [3] - The second week, coinciding with the "Double Eleven" shopping festival, had an average daily retail of 67,000 units, down 9% year-on-year [3] - The third week is expected to see an increase to 70,000 units daily, while the fourth week could rise to 118,000 units daily, but still below last year's levels [3][4] Uncertainty in the Market - Since June, many regions have suspended or adjusted vehicle trade-in subsidy policies, leading to a reduction in market support [5] - The retail sales of automotive consumer goods showed a year-on-year decline of 0.2% in October, indicating ongoing pressure in automotive consumption [5] - The new energy vehicle market is expected to rebound towards the end of the year, driven by the upcoming expiration of purchase tax subsidies and new model deliveries [5]

Core Insights - In October 2025, the domestic narrow passenger car market retail sales reached 2.248 million units, a year-on-year decrease of 0.5% and a month-on-month increase of 0.2% [1] - Cumulatively, from January to October 2025, total sales reached 19.256 million units, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 8.0% [1] Group 1: Market Performance - October 2025 saw a slight year-on-year decline in retail sales of passenger cars due to a high base from the previous year, with a decrease of 0.9% [3] - New energy vehicles (NEVs) experienced a year-on-year growth of 7.3% in October, while conventional fuel vehicles saw a decline of 10% [3] - The cumulative growth rate of passenger cars has shown a gradual deceleration in the second half of the year [3] Group 2: Manufacturer Sales Rankings - BYD ranked first in retail sales from January to October 2025 with 2.838 million units sold, a decrease of 2.1% year-on-year, holding a market share of 14.7% [9] - Geely followed with 2.141 million units sold, marking a significant year-on-year increase of 56.2% and a market share of 11.1% [9] - In October 2025, BYD sold 295,871 units, down 14.8% month-on-month and 31.4% year-on-year, capturing a market share of 13.2% [8] Group 3: New Energy Vehicle Sales - In October 2025, BYD led the NEV wholesale sales with 436,856 units, a month-on-month increase of 11.1% but a year-on-year decrease of 12.7%, holding a market share of 27.0% [10] - Geely's NEV sales reached 177,882 units in October, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 63.6% [10] - From January to October 2025, BYD also led NEV sales with 3.656 million units, a year-on-year growth of 12.9% and a market share of 30.3% [11]

Core Viewpoint - The article emphasizes that in October, various demand indicators such as exports and real estate may decline due to base effects and policy adjustments, while focusing on the recovery of consumption below the limit. The "14th Five-Year Plan" is expected to provide ongoing growth momentum through increased investment in public welfare and basic livelihood projects [2][3]. Group 1: Economic Indicators - In September, consumption related to holidays performed poorly due to the overlap of the Mid-Autumn Festival and National Day, but October is expected to see a rebound in growth driven by these holidays [2]. - The average growth rate of consumption below the limit (excluding catering) is projected to improve from 2.7% in 2023 to 3.55% in 2024, and further to 4.24% in the first three quarters of 2025. The year-on-year growth rate for September was 3.77%, with an expected rise to around 5% in October [2][3]. - In 2019, the growth rate of consumption below the limit (excluding catering) was 10.6%, indicating significant room for recovery. In 2024, 52.2% of social retail sales will come from this category, making its recovery crucial for overall retail performance [2][3]. Group 2: Price Trends - CPI is expected to show a narrowing year-on-year decline, with a forecast of around -0.1% for October. PPI is projected to decline slightly to around -2.4% year-on-year [5][14]. - Food prices are expected to decrease, with pork prices down 8.1% and egg prices down 7.5%. Conversely, vegetable prices are expected to rise by 3.4% due to seasonal factors [14][15]. Group 3: Production and Trade - Industrial production growth is anticipated to slow to around 5.5% in October, influenced by seasonal effects and weakening high-frequency indicators [16]. - Export growth is expected to decline to around 3.5% year-on-year in October due to high base effects from the previous year, while imports are projected to grow by 1% [18][19]. Group 4: Investment and Real Estate - Fixed asset investment growth is expected to decline to around -0.8% for the first ten months of the year, with real estate investment down 14.5% [20]. - Real estate sales area growth is projected to be around -15% in October, with significant declines noted in major cities [21]. Group 5: Retail Sales - Social retail sales growth is expected to be around 3.0% in October, with consumption below the limit projected to grow by 5% [22]. - The automotive sector is expected to see a decline in retail growth, while catering and consumption below the limit are anticipated to recover due to holiday effects [22]. Group 6: Financial Indicators - New social financing is expected to reach 1.1 trillion, a decrease of 200 billion from the previous year, with a stock growth rate of around 8.6% [23]. - M2 is projected to remain stable at around 8.4% year-on-year, while new M1 is expected to be around 6% [23][24].

Core Insights - The narrow passenger car retail market in October is expected to reach approximately 2.2 million units, reflecting a month-on-month decrease of 2.0% and a year-on-year decrease of 2.6% [1][3] - New energy vehicle (NEV) retail is projected to be around 1.32 million units, with a penetration rate anticipated to rise to about 60% [1][3] - The market is entering the traditional "Silver October" sales peak, driven by the National Day holiday's customer attraction effect and year-end policy adjustments [1] Market Performance - In September, the narrow passenger car retail market achieved 2.244 million units, showing a year-on-year growth of 6.4% and a month-on-month growth of 11.2% [2] - NEV retail in September reached 1.299 million units, with a year-on-year increase of 15.7% and a month-on-month increase of 16.5%, resulting in a penetration rate of 57.8% [2] Manufacturer Sales Outlook - Most manufacturers maintain an optimistic sales outlook for October, with major manufacturers setting retail targets that are largely stable month-on-month [3] - The anticipated retail market size for narrow passenger cars in October is around 2.2 million units, with NEV retail expected to reach 1.32 million units [3] Weekly Sales Trends - The first week of October saw daily retail of 43,500 units, a year-on-year decrease of 18.4% and a month-on-month decrease of 4.7% due to the holiday effect [4] - The second week experienced a surge in daily retail to 87,800 units, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 10.8% and a month-on-month increase of 43.5% [4] - The overall monthly retail forecast remains at 2.2 million units, with varying weekly performances influenced by holiday dynamics and policy adjustments [4] Market Structure and Consumer Behavior - Post-holiday, there has been a slight seasonal recovery in terminal discounts, indicating a stable overall market operation [5] - As of October 22, 2025, over 10 million applications for the vehicle replacement subsidy have been submitted, significantly impacting the market in the first three quarters [5] - The market is expected to be supported by continued vehicle scrappage and the upcoming decline in NEV purchase tax subsidies, which may drive early purchasing behavior [5]

Core Viewpoint - The automotive market in September showed strong performance driven by the traditional sales peak and the "old-for-new" policy, with significant growth in both overall and new energy vehicle (NEV) sales [2][4]. Group 1: September Market Review - In September, the retail sales of narrow-sense passenger vehicles reached 2.244 million units, a year-on-year increase of 6.4% and a month-on-month increase of 11.2% [2]. - Retail sales of new energy narrow-sense passenger vehicles totaled 1.299 million units, with a year-on-year growth of 15.7% and a month-on-month growth of 16.5%, achieving a penetration rate of 57.8% [2]. Group 2: October Market Outlook - October is expected to enter the traditional "Silver October" sales peak, with the National Day holiday's customer gathering effect and year-end policy adjustment expectations driving initial consumer demand [3]. - However, the impact of the "old-for-new" subsidy policy is expected to weaken, leading to potential pressure on market growth in the latter half of the month [3]. Group 3: Manufacturer Sales Trends - Most manufacturers are optimistic about October sales, with major manufacturers setting retail targets that are stable month-on-month. The narrow-sense passenger vehicle retail market is expected to reach around 2.2 million units, a month-on-month decrease of 2.0% [4]. - New energy vehicle retail sales are projected to be around 1.32 million units, with a penetration rate potentially reaching 60%, which would be a historical high [4][8]. Group 4: Weekly Sales Trends - The first week of October saw daily retail sales of 43,500 units, a year-on-year decrease of 18.4% and a month-on-month decrease of 4.7% [5]. - The second week experienced a surge in daily retail sales to 87,800 units, a year-on-year increase of 10.8% and a month-on-month increase of 43.5% [5]. - The third week saw a decline in daily retail sales to 61,300 units, with a year-on-year decrease of 6.1% and a month-on-month decrease of 4.5% [5]. - The fourth week is expected to stabilize with daily retail sales of 68,600 units, a year-on-year decrease of 9.9% and a month-on-month decrease of 22.4% [5]. - The fifth week is projected to see an increase in daily retail sales to 118,300 units, a year-on-year increase of 12.5% but a month-on-month decrease of 15.9% [5]. Group 5: Market Structure Differentiation - After the National Day holiday, terminal discounts have shown a seasonal slight recovery, with the overall automotive market operating smoothly [7]. - The "old-for-new" subsidy policy has significantly impacted the market, with over 10 million applications for subsidies by October 22, 2025 [7]. - The market is expected to be supported by continued vehicle scrappage and the upcoming end-of-year tax subsidy adjustments for new energy vehicles, which may drive pre-purchase demand [7].