作者丨彭鑫 编辑丨安安 11月21日，乘联分会初步推算本月狭义乘用车零售总市场预计为225万辆左右，环比持平，同比下降 8.7%，其中新能源零售可达135万左右，渗透率有望提升至60%。 ...

人民财讯11月21日电，乘联分会发布11月车市展望，11月车市步入年末冲刺阶段，叠加厂商"双十一"促 销活动，整体仍延续旺季销售势头。但截至月中，全国大多数省份置换更新与以旧换新补贴出现不同程 度调整，加剧了消费者的观望情绪，也为11月车市带来较大的不确定性。初步推算本月狭义乘用车零售 总市场预计为225万辆左右，环比持平，同比下降8.7%，其中新能源零售可达135万左右，渗透率有望 提升至60%。 ...

点 击 蓝 字 关 注 我 们 11月车市由于政策调整带来的观望情绪，开局相对平稳。第一周日均零售4.6万辆，同比下降19%，环比下降4%。第二周适逢"双十一"电商购物节，厂商借势促 销，日均零售6.7万辆，同比下降9%，环比下降7%。第三周随着广州车展开幕，叠加购置税补贴退坡预期，日均零售预计可达7.0万辆，同比下降8%，环比增长 5%。展望下旬，第四周在政策调整预期与厂商年末冲刺共同推动下，市场热度有所回升，但市场仍难以达到去年同期的高度，日均零售预计可攀升至11.8万辆，同 比下降3%，环比增长13%。综合各周表现，预计全月零售可达225万，环比0.0%，同比-8.7%。 | 单位:万辆 | 主要厂商 | 主要厂商 | 主要厂商 | 主要厂商 | 零售市场 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 第一周 | 第二周 | 第三周预计 | 第四周预计 | 全月预计 | | 11 月主要厂商日均零售 | 4.6 | 6.7 | 7.0 | 11.8 | 225.0 | | 环比 2025 年 10 月 | -4% | -7% | 5% | 13% | 0.0% ...

Core Insights - In October 2025, the domestic narrow passenger car market retail sales reached 2.248 million units, a year-on-year decrease of 0.5% and a month-on-month increase of 0.2% [1] - Cumulatively, from January to October 2025, total sales reached 19.256 million units, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 8.0% [1] Group 1: Market Performance - October 2025 saw a slight year-on-year decline in retail sales of passenger cars due to a high base from the previous year, with a decrease of 0.9% [3] - New energy vehicles (NEVs) experienced a year-on-year growth of 7.3% in October, while conventional fuel vehicles saw a decline of 10% [3] - The cumulative growth rate of passenger cars has shown a gradual deceleration in the second half of the year [3] Group 2: Manufacturer Sales Rankings - BYD ranked first in retail sales from January to October 2025 with 2.838 million units sold, a decrease of 2.1% year-on-year, holding a market share of 14.7% [9] - Geely followed with 2.141 million units sold, marking a significant year-on-year increase of 56.2% and a market share of 11.1% [9] - In October 2025, BYD sold 295,871 units, down 14.8% month-on-month and 31.4% year-on-year, capturing a market share of 13.2% [8] Group 3: New Energy Vehicle Sales - In October 2025, BYD led the NEV wholesale sales with 436,856 units, a month-on-month increase of 11.1% but a year-on-year decrease of 12.7%, holding a market share of 27.0% [10] - Geely's NEV sales reached 177,882 units in October, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 63.6% [10] - From January to October 2025, BYD also led NEV sales with 3.656 million units, a year-on-year growth of 12.9% and a market share of 30.3% [11]

Core Viewpoint - The article emphasizes that in October, various demand indicators such as exports and real estate may decline due to base effects and policy adjustments, while focusing on the recovery of consumption below the limit. The "14th Five-Year Plan" is expected to provide ongoing growth momentum through increased investment in public welfare and basic livelihood projects [2][3]. Group 1: Economic Indicators - In September, consumption related to holidays performed poorly due to the overlap of the Mid-Autumn Festival and National Day, but October is expected to see a rebound in growth driven by these holidays [2]. - The average growth rate of consumption below the limit (excluding catering) is projected to improve from 2.7% in 2023 to 3.55% in 2024, and further to 4.24% in the first three quarters of 2025. The year-on-year growth rate for September was 3.77%, with an expected rise to around 5% in October [2][3]. - In 2019, the growth rate of consumption below the limit (excluding catering) was 10.6%, indicating significant room for recovery. In 2024, 52.2% of social retail sales will come from this category, making its recovery crucial for overall retail performance [2][3]. Group 2: Price Trends - CPI is expected to show a narrowing year-on-year decline, with a forecast of around -0.1% for October. PPI is projected to decline slightly to around -2.4% year-on-year [5][14]. - Food prices are expected to decrease, with pork prices down 8.1% and egg prices down 7.5%. Conversely, vegetable prices are expected to rise by 3.4% due to seasonal factors [14][15]. Group 3: Production and Trade - Industrial production growth is anticipated to slow to around 5.5% in October, influenced by seasonal effects and weakening high-frequency indicators [16]. - Export growth is expected to decline to around 3.5% year-on-year in October due to high base effects from the previous year, while imports are projected to grow by 1% [18][19]. Group 4: Investment and Real Estate - Fixed asset investment growth is expected to decline to around -0.8% for the first ten months of the year, with real estate investment down 14.5% [20]. - Real estate sales area growth is projected to be around -15% in October, with significant declines noted in major cities [21]. Group 5: Retail Sales - Social retail sales growth is expected to be around 3.0% in October, with consumption below the limit projected to grow by 5% [22]. - The automotive sector is expected to see a decline in retail growth, while catering and consumption below the limit are anticipated to recover due to holiday effects [22]. Group 6: Financial Indicators - New social financing is expected to reach 1.1 trillion, a decrease of 200 billion from the previous year, with a stock growth rate of around 8.6% [23]. - M2 is projected to remain stable at around 8.4% year-on-year, while new M1 is expected to be around 6% [23][24].

Core Insights - The narrow passenger car retail market in October is expected to reach approximately 2.2 million units, reflecting a month-on-month decrease of 2.0% and a year-on-year decrease of 2.6% [1][3] - New energy vehicle (NEV) retail is projected to be around 1.32 million units, with a penetration rate anticipated to rise to about 60% [1][3] - The market is entering the traditional "Silver October" sales peak, driven by the National Day holiday's customer attraction effect and year-end policy adjustments [1] Market Performance - In September, the narrow passenger car retail market achieved 2.244 million units, showing a year-on-year growth of 6.4% and a month-on-month growth of 11.2% [2] - NEV retail in September reached 1.299 million units, with a year-on-year increase of 15.7% and a month-on-month increase of 16.5%, resulting in a penetration rate of 57.8% [2] Manufacturer Sales Outlook - Most manufacturers maintain an optimistic sales outlook for October, with major manufacturers setting retail targets that are largely stable month-on-month [3] - The anticipated retail market size for narrow passenger cars in October is around 2.2 million units, with NEV retail expected to reach 1.32 million units [3] Weekly Sales Trends - The first week of October saw daily retail of 43,500 units, a year-on-year decrease of 18.4% and a month-on-month decrease of 4.7% due to the holiday effect [4] - The second week experienced a surge in daily retail to 87,800 units, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 10.8% and a month-on-month increase of 43.5% [4] - The overall monthly retail forecast remains at 2.2 million units, with varying weekly performances influenced by holiday dynamics and policy adjustments [4] Market Structure and Consumer Behavior - Post-holiday, there has been a slight seasonal recovery in terminal discounts, indicating a stable overall market operation [5] - As of October 22, 2025, over 10 million applications for the vehicle replacement subsidy have been submitted, significantly impacting the market in the first three quarters [5] - The market is expected to be supported by continued vehicle scrappage and the upcoming decline in NEV purchase tax subsidies, which may drive early purchasing behavior [5]

Core Viewpoint - The automotive market in September showed strong performance driven by the traditional sales peak and the "old-for-new" policy, with significant growth in both overall and new energy vehicle (NEV) sales [2][4]. Group 1: September Market Review - In September, the retail sales of narrow-sense passenger vehicles reached 2.244 million units, a year-on-year increase of 6.4% and a month-on-month increase of 11.2% [2]. - Retail sales of new energy narrow-sense passenger vehicles totaled 1.299 million units, with a year-on-year growth of 15.7% and a month-on-month growth of 16.5%, achieving a penetration rate of 57.8% [2]. Group 2: October Market Outlook - October is expected to enter the traditional "Silver October" sales peak, with the National Day holiday's customer gathering effect and year-end policy adjustment expectations driving initial consumer demand [3]. - However, the impact of the "old-for-new" subsidy policy is expected to weaken, leading to potential pressure on market growth in the latter half of the month [3]. Group 3: Manufacturer Sales Trends - Most manufacturers are optimistic about October sales, with major manufacturers setting retail targets that are stable month-on-month. The narrow-sense passenger vehicle retail market is expected to reach around 2.2 million units, a month-on-month decrease of 2.0% [4]. - New energy vehicle retail sales are projected to be around 1.32 million units, with a penetration rate potentially reaching 60%, which would be a historical high [4][8]. Group 4: Weekly Sales Trends - The first week of October saw daily retail sales of 43,500 units, a year-on-year decrease of 18.4% and a month-on-month decrease of 4.7% [5]. - The second week experienced a surge in daily retail sales to 87,800 units, a year-on-year increase of 10.8% and a month-on-month increase of 43.5% [5]. - The third week saw a decline in daily retail sales to 61,300 units, with a year-on-year decrease of 6.1% and a month-on-month decrease of 4.5% [5]. - The fourth week is expected to stabilize with daily retail sales of 68,600 units, a year-on-year decrease of 9.9% and a month-on-month decrease of 22.4% [5]. - The fifth week is projected to see an increase in daily retail sales to 118,300 units, a year-on-year increase of 12.5% but a month-on-month decrease of 15.9% [5]. Group 5: Market Structure Differentiation - After the National Day holiday, terminal discounts have shown a seasonal slight recovery, with the overall automotive market operating smoothly [7]. - The "old-for-new" subsidy policy has significantly impacted the market, with over 10 million applications for subsidies by October 22, 2025 [7]. - The market is expected to be supported by continued vehicle scrappage and the upcoming end-of-year tax subsidy adjustments for new energy vehicles, which may drive pre-purchase demand [7].

Core Insights - In September 2025, the retail sales of narrow passenger vehicles in China reached 2.244 million units, marking a year-on-year increase of 6.4% and a month-on-month increase of 11.2% [1] - Cumulatively, from January to September 2025, the total sales reached 17.008 million units, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 9.2% [1] - The automotive market is experiencing strong growth ahead of year-end policy adjustments, with a shift towards stable pricing and reduced promotions [2] Wholesale Sales Rankings (September 2025) - BYD Auto led the wholesale sales with 393,060 units, a month-on-month increase of 5.8% but a year-on-year decrease of 5.9%, capturing a market share of 14.1% [3] - Geely Auto and Chery Auto followed with 273,125 and 269,070 units respectively, showing significant year-on-year growth of 35.2% and 13.5% [3] - The top ten manufacturers collectively reflect a diverse performance, with some experiencing declines while others show robust growth [3] Retail Sales Rankings (September 2025) - BYD Auto also topped the retail sales with 347,353 units, a month-on-month increase of 12.0% but a year-on-year decrease of 10.2%, holding a market share of 15.5% [5] - Geely Auto and Volkswagen ranked second and third with 232,460 and 138,655 units respectively, with Geely showing a year-on-year increase of 42.8% [5] - The retail landscape indicates a competitive environment with varying performance among the top players [5] Wholesale Sales Rankings (January to September 2025) - For the first nine months of 2025, BYD Auto led with 3.218 million units sold, a year-on-year increase of 17.6% and a market share of 15.4% [4] - Geely Auto and Chery Auto followed with significant growth rates of 45.7% and 14.3% respectively [4] - The overall market dynamics suggest a strong recovery and growth trajectory for several manufacturers [4] Retail Sales Rankings (January to September 2025) - In the cumulative sales from January to September 2025, BYD Auto again led with 2.542 million units, reflecting a modest year-on-year growth of 3.1% [6] - Geely Auto showed remarkable growth of 59.4%, reaching 1.875 million units [6] - The retail performance indicates a competitive market with varying growth rates among manufacturers [6] New Energy Vehicle (NEV) Wholesale Sales Rankings (September 2025) - BYD Auto dominated the NEV wholesale market with 393,060 units, holding a market share of 26.3% despite a year-on-year decline of 5.9% [7] - Geely Auto and Tesla China followed with significant increases in sales, particularly Geely with an 81.3% year-on-year growth [7] - The NEV segment is showing strong growth potential, with several manufacturers capitalizing on the trend [7] New Energy Vehicle (NEV) Retail Sales Rankings (September 2025) - In retail sales for NEVs, BYD Auto again led with 347,353 units, capturing a market share of 26.7% [9] - Geely Auto and Changan Auto followed with 150,570 and 84,237 units respectively, indicating strong year-on-year growth [9] - The NEV retail market is becoming increasingly competitive, with several players showing significant growth [9] New Energy Vehicle (NEV) Wholesale Sales Rankings (January to September 2025) - From January to September 2025, BYD Auto led the NEV wholesale market with 3.218 million units, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 17.6% [8] - Geely Auto showed impressive growth of 113.9%, reaching 1.167 million units [8] - The NEV market is expanding rapidly, with several manufacturers gaining market share [8] New Energy Vehicle (NEV) Retail Sales Rankings (January to September 2025) - In the NEV retail segment, BYD Auto led with 2.542 million units sold, a year-on-year growth of 3.1% [10] - Geely Auto and Changan Auto also showed strong performance with year-on-year growth rates of 107.2% and 40.2% respectively [10] - The NEV retail market is characterized by significant growth opportunities for various manufacturers [10]

Group 1 - The retail market for narrow passenger vehicles in September is expected to reach approximately 2.15 million units, representing a month-on-month growth of 6.5% and a year-on-year growth of 2.0% [1] - The retail sales of new energy vehicles are projected to be around 1.25 million units, with a penetration rate of 58.1% [1]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article indicates that the retail market for narrow passenger vehicles in September is expected to reach approximately 2.15 million units, reflecting a month-on-month growth of 6.5% and a year-on-year growth of 2.0% [1] - Among the total, the retail sales of new energy vehicles are projected to be around 1.25 million units, achieving a penetration rate of 58.1% [1]