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乘联会:8月乘用车零售预计约194万辆 新能源渗透率或达56.7%新高
Zhi Tong Cai Jing· 2025-08-23 07:38
智通财经APP获悉,8月22日,乘联分会发文称,初步推算本月狭义乘用车零售总市场约为194万辆,环 比增长6.2%,同比增长2.0%,其中新能源零售预计可达110万左右,渗透率56.7%。7月车市受暑期季节 性因素及以旧换新政策过渡调整期影响,增速阶段性放缓。随着中央第三批补贴资金于七月下旬陆续拨 付至地方,市场逐步回归常态化运行,整体呈现平稳增长态势。 8月第一周受厂商高温假以及补贴阶段性中止影响,月初市场略有回落,日均零售4.52万辆,同 比-3.8%,环比5.6%。第二周随着补贴的恢复,车市恢复,日均零售达5.91万辆,同比增长8.2%,环比 增长10.1%。第三周日均零售6.67万辆,同比增长18.0%,环比增长5.9%。第四周预计日均销量可达8.47 万,受去年同期高基数影响同比-7.1%,环比4.4%;综合估算8月终端零售总市场可达到194万辆左右。 | 单位: 万辆 | 主要厂商 | 主要厂商 | 主要厂商 | 主要厂商 | 零售市场 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 第一周 | 第二周 | 第三周预计 | 第五周预计 | 全月预计 | | ...
乘联分会初步推算8月乘用车零售量约194万辆
Bei Jing Shang Bao· 2025-08-22 15:12
北京商报讯(记者刘晓梦)8月22日,据中国汽车流通协会乘用车市场信息联席分会初步推算的数据显 示,今年8月狭义乘用车零售量约194万辆,环比增长6.2%,同比增长2%。其中,新能源乘用车零售量 约110万辆,渗透率56.7%。 ...
【乘联分会论坛】8月狭义乘用车零售预计194.0万辆,新能源预计110.0万辆
乘联分会· 2025-08-22 13:23
点 击 蓝 字 关 注 我 们 最新厂商调研数据显示,零售量占总市场近八成的头部厂商本月零售目标环比增长约5%,同比持平微 增。综合估算,本月狭义乘用车零售总市场预计为194万辆左右,环比增长6.2%,同比增长2.0%,其中新能源 零售可达110万左右,渗透率有望再创新高至56.7%。 二、周度走势推算 8月第一周受厂商高温假以及补贴阶段性中止影响,月初市场略有回落,日均零售4.52万辆,同比-3.8%, 环比5.6%。第二周随着补贴的恢复,车市恢复,日均零售达5.91万辆,同比增长8.2%,环比增长10.1%。第三 周日均零售6.67万辆,同比增长18.0%,环比增长5.9%。第四周预计日均销量可达8.47万,受去年同期高基数 影响同比-7.1%,环比4.4%;综合估算8月终端零售总市场可达到194万辆左右。 | 单位: 万辆 | 主要厂商 | 主要厂商 | 主要厂商 | 主要厂商 | 零售市场 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 第一周 | 第二周 | 第三周预计 | 第五周预计 | 全月预计 | | 8 月主要厂商日均零售 | 4.52 | 5.91 ...
【乘联分会论坛】7月狭义乘用车零售预计185.0万辆,新能源预计101万辆
乘联分会· 2025-07-24 13:58
Core Viewpoint - The automotive market in June experienced strong growth driven by the "two new" policies, with retail sales of narrow passenger vehicles reaching 2.083 million units, a year-on-year increase of 18.2% and a month-on-month increase of 7.5% [1] Group 1: June Market Review - The retail sales of new energy vehicles in June reached 1.111 million units, showing a year-on-year growth of 29.9% and a month-on-month growth of 8.2%, with a penetration rate rising to 53.3% [1] Group 2: July Market Outlook - The July automotive market is expected to maintain stable year-on-year growth, driven by the "trade-in and scrapping" policies, despite some demand being pulled forward due to June's sales surge [2] Group 3: Manufacturer Sales Trends - Retail targets for leading manufacturers are projected to grow by 6% year-on-year in July, with an estimated total retail market for narrow passenger vehicles around 1.85 million units, a year-on-year increase of 7.6% but a month-on-month decrease of 11.2% [3] Group 4: Weekly Sales Trends - The first week of July saw a normal seasonal decline in sales, with daily retail averaging 39,700 units, a year-on-year increase of 1.2% but a month-on-month decrease of 5.8% [4] - The second week showed a recovery with daily retail reaching 47,500 units, a year-on-year increase of 11.3% [4] - The third week recorded daily retail of 58,200 units, a year-on-year increase of 16.8% [4] - The fourth week is expected to see daily sales of 68,100 units, a year-on-year increase of 7.6% [4] - Overall, July's retail market is estimated to reach around 1.85 million units [4] Group 5: Stable Operation in July - The automotive market is experiencing a typical seasonal decline due to the early release of consumer potential from June's sales push and the summer break for manufacturers [5] - The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology is working to regulate the competitive order in the new energy vehicle industry, aiming to shift from price wars to value competition focused on technology upgrades and service quality [5] - The overall market discount in early July stabilized around 25%, indicating a reduction in promotional intensity compared to late June [5] - The "trade-in and scrapping" policy continues to support market stability, although some regions face temporary pauses in subsidies due to early depletion of funds [5]
乘联分会:7月狭义乘用车零售预计185.0万辆 新能源预计101万辆
news flash· 2025-07-24 13:55
Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article indicates that the retail sales of narrow-sense passenger vehicles in July are expected to reach approximately 1.85 million units, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 7.6% but a month-on-month decline of 11.2% [1] - The top manufacturers, which account for about 80% of the total market, have set retail targets for this month that show a year-on-year increase of 6% compared to July of the previous year, but a decrease of about 10% compared to the previous month [1] - The retail sales of new energy vehicles are projected to reach around 1.01 million units, with a penetration rate expected to rise to 54.6% [1]
汽车行业跟踪报告:6月需求仍保持两位数增长
Huachuang Securities· 2025-07-10 09:11
Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Recommended," indicating an expected increase in the industry index by more than 5% over the next 3-6 months compared to the benchmark index [4][65]. Core Insights - June saw a strong performance in the automotive industry, with narrow passenger car production reaching 2.42 million units, a year-on-year increase of 13% and a month-on-month increase of 6%. Wholesale figures were 2.49 million units, up 14% year-on-year and 7% month-on-month [3][7]. - The report anticipates that the terminal market will remain robust in the second half of the year, with reduced risks from price wars due to a dual backdrop of "anti-involution" and strong sales. However, there are concerns about potential fluctuations in sales due to subsidy policy changes next year, which may suppress investment sentiment in the sector [3][7]. - Recommendations include Jianghuai Automobile for complete vehicles, with a relatively optimistic outlook for the second half of the year. Other companies to watch include Li Auto, BAIC Blue Valley, SAIC Motor, Seres, and Xiaomi Group, particularly focusing on Li Auto's i8 launch and management reforms at BAIC and SAIC [3][7]. - For auto parts, the report suggests a low-position layout due to significant industry beta influence and recent weak performance in the robotics supply chain. Recommended companies include Xinquan, Xingyu, Aikodi, Haoneng, and Horizon, with a focus on New Tai Ge [3][7]. Sales, Inventory, and Pricing Sales - In June, wholesale sales of passenger cars reached 2.49 million units, with a year-on-year increase of 14% and a month-on-month increase of 7%. The estimated retail sales for June were approximately 2.1 million units, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 23% and a month-on-month increase of 14% [7][8]. - The report estimates that the total retail sales for 2025 will be 24 million units, representing a year-on-year growth of 5.7%, while wholesale sales are projected to reach 29.48 million units, up 8.1% year-on-year [7][8]. Inventory - The report notes that June exports were 480,000 units, a year-on-year increase of 20% and a month-on-month increase of 4%, leading to a channel destocking of approximately 100,000 units [7][8]. - The overall inventory situation is influenced by a higher stocking intensity in 2025 compared to the same period in 2024, with a cumulative increase of 300,000 units in the first half of the year [7][8]. Pricing - The report indicates that the risk of a severe price war in the industry is low, with expected stable profitability for enterprises. The average discount rate in early June was 10.6%, reflecting a month-on-month increase of 0.4 percentage points [7][8]. - The report highlights that the trend of price wars may be mitigated by government policies aimed at regulating low-price competition and promoting product quality [7][8].
中国乘联分会:6月狭义乘用车市场零售208.4万辆,同比增18.1%。
news flash· 2025-07-08 08:06
Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article highlights that the retail sales of narrow passenger vehicles in China reached 2.084 million units in June, representing a year-on-year increase of 18.1% [1]
乘联分会:中国6月狭义乘用车零售销量同比增长18.1%。
news flash· 2025-07-08 08:06
Core Insights - In June, China's retail sales of narrow passenger vehicles increased by 18.1% year-on-year [1] Group 1 - The growth in retail sales indicates a strong recovery in the automotive market [1] - The increase in sales reflects consumer confidence and demand for new vehicles [1] - This growth trend may influence future production and inventory strategies for automotive companies [1]
中国乘联分会:中国6月狭义乘用车零售销量同比增长18.1%
news flash· 2025-07-08 08:04
Group 1 - The core point of the article is that China's retail sales of narrow passenger vehicles increased by 18.1% year-on-year in June [1]
【乘联分会论坛】6月狭义乘用车零售预计200.0万辆,新能源预计110万辆
乘联分会· 2025-06-20 13:18
Market Overview - During the "May Day" holiday, car manufacturers launched promotional policies, leading to a strong performance in the car market in May, with retail sales of narrow-sense passenger vehicles reaching 1.938 million units, a year-on-year increase of 13.7% and a month-on-month increase of 10.0% [1] - New energy vehicle retail sales in May reached 1.027 million units, a year-on-year increase of 28.9% and a month-on-month increase of 12.7%, with a penetration rate rising to 53.0% [1] June Market Outlook - The car market is expected to continue its upward trend in June, supported by the "trade-in" and "scrap renewal" policies, despite some regions experiencing temporary tightness in subsidy amounts [2] Manufacturer Sales Trends - In June, manufacturers are intensifying promotional efforts to meet quarterly and semi-annual targets, with an overall market discount rate of approximately 24.8% [3] - Retail targets for leading manufacturers are projected to grow by 15% year-on-year compared to May of last year, with an estimated total retail market of around 2 million units in June, a year-on-year increase of 13.4% and a month-on-month increase of 3.2% [3] Weekly Sales Projections - The first week of June saw a decline in daily retail to 42,100 units, a year-on-year decrease of 16.9% and a month-on-month decrease of 13.9% [4] - The second week showed a recovery with daily retail reaching 52,700 units, a year-on-year increase of 22.7% [4] - The third week, boosted by the "618" e-commerce promotion, is expected to see daily retail reach 68,600 units, a year-on-year increase of 10.7% [4] - The fourth week is projected to achieve daily sales of 101,800 units, a year-on-year increase of 10.1% [4] June Market Heat - The arrival of the "618" e-commerce season has prompted manufacturers to launch new promotional campaigns, with the overall market discount rate reaching approximately 25.2% in mid-June [5] - As of May 31, the number of applications for the trade-in subsidy reached 4.12 million, providing significant momentum for the car market [5] - However, some regions are experiencing temporary tightness in trade-in subsidy funds, which may lead to increased consumer hesitation and potential consumption risks in the third quarter [5]