智通财经APP获悉，国际大行瑞银集团(UBS)近日发布2026年美国股市零售板块投资展望报告，来自瑞银的分析师们表示，美国"软线零售"领域(softlines retail)在2025年"感恩节+黑色星期五"假日购物季表现超预期，并且预计即将到来的圣诞购物季以及2026年开局消费者意愿将进一步走强。因此结合月度消费 者问卷、宏观仪表盘数据、以及瑞银所覆盖的零售股票整体估值/基本面，瑞银维持看涨软线零售板块的立场，并较上月立场"更加乐观"，预计软线零售将 迎来新一轮"拔估值"牛市行情。 瑞银在报告中重点提及的"软线零售(softlines retail)"是零售行业里对商品大类的一种细致划分，通常指以纺织/柔性材料为主、偏"穿戴/家居软品"的商品与零 售细分业务部门，包括服装(apparel)、鞋履(footwear)、配饰(accessories)，以及床品、毛巾、寝具等家纺品(不同机构口径也可能把内衣、部分个护等"软性消 耗品"并入)。 作为对比，"软线零售"的对立面是"硬线(hardlines)"，一般指更偏耐用品/硬件的零售品类，比如家电、电子、家具、工具、运动器材等。 2025年假日季表现超预期，20 ...

Core Viewpoint - The market is currently experiencing a mixed performance with the CSI 500 Quality Growth Index showing a slight decline, while certain stocks are performing well, indicating potential investment opportunities in undervalued sectors [1][2]. Group 1: Market Performance - As of July 7, 2025, the CSI 500 Quality Growth Index has decreased by 0.51%, with stocks like Binjiang Group rising by 2.77% and Shengyi Electronics leading the decline [1]. - The CSI 500 Quality Growth ETF has seen a significant growth in scale, increasing by 29.35 million yuan over the past three months, ranking in the top third among comparable funds [1]. Group 2: Valuation Insights - The CSI 500 Quality Growth Index is currently at a historical low valuation, with a price-to-book (PB) ratio of 1.88, which is below 90.16% of the time over the past three years, indicating strong valuation attractiveness [2]. - The index comprises 100 companies selected for their high profitability, sustainable earnings, and strong cash flow, providing diverse investment options for investors [2]. Group 3: Sector Outlook - The market is believed to be in the late stages of a valuation expansion phase, with high-growth sectors such as technology, non-ferrous metals, and chemicals expected to outperform [1]. - Historical analysis suggests that before the end of a valuation expansion phase, high-growth and policy-driven sectors tend to perform better, while after its conclusion, low-valuation sectors may see stronger performance [1].

Group 1 - The current A-share market is experiencing increased volatility, with significant fluctuations occurring within short time frames [1] - Historical analysis shows that the average gain during "valuation expansion" phases since 2005 is 21.9%, lasting an average of 53 trading days [1] - Factors leading to the end of valuation expansion include policy tightening, external negative shocks, and excessive valuation and sentiment [1] Group 2 - The recent "Big Beautiful Bill" signed by the US government aims to boost AI subsidies and promote domestic chip manufacturing, with a projected economic growth impact of 0%-0.6% by 2026 [8] - The bill's long-term effects may lead to a decrease in economic growth rates after 2028 [8] Group 3 - The Chinese government is focusing on stabilizing the real estate market by promoting the construction of safe, comfortable, and green housing [16] - Recent data indicates that the maximum electricity load in China reached a historical high of 1.465 billion kilowatts on July 4, 2025, driven by extreme heat [11] Group 4 - The semiconductor industry in Shenzhen is being promoted through ten measures aimed at high-quality development [15] - The aviation sector is seeing regulatory changes with the establishment of a leadership group to develop general aviation and low-altitude economy [12] Group 5 - The food delivery market is witnessing intense competition, with Meituan reporting over 1.2 billion orders in a single day [5][34] - The e-commerce platform Taobao is launching a significant subsidy campaign, aiming for a substantial increase in order volume [34] Group 6 - The latest industry trends indicate that the textile, light manufacturing, and media sectors are in a recession phase, while the computer, communication, and defense industries are expanding [27] - The pharmaceutical and food and beverage sectors are expected to see an increase in their economic outlook, while the construction materials and steel industries may experience a decline [28]