Report Overview - Report Date: June 27, 2025 [1] - Report Type: Precious Metals Daily Report - Research Team: Macro Finance Team - Researchers: He Zhuoqiao, Huang Wenxin, Nie Jiayi [2] 1. Investment Rating - No investment rating for the industry was provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - NATO summit increases geopolitical risks and weakens the US dollar, supporting the strength of London gold above $3300 per ounce, while the strong rise of the Chinese stock market makes silver with stronger industrial attributes outperform gold. Trump's new policies boost the safe - haven demand for gold, with rising volatility but a good medium - term upward trend. Investors are advised to maintain a long - position mindset and participate in trading with medium - to - low positions [4]. - In April, Trump's tariff measures caused a shock in the global financial market, pushing up the gold price. Although the gold price has corrected from its high, the medium - term upward trend remains good. The long - and medium - term factors driving the gold price increase will continue, but short - term volatility has increased significantly. Investors are advised to avoid full - position chasing and blind short - selling, and short - biased traders can consider the "long gold, short silver" arbitrage strategy [5]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Precious Metals Market Quotes and Outlook 3.1.1 Intraday Quotes - NATO summit agreements increase geopolitical risks and weaken the US dollar index to a low of 97.3 for the year. Safe - haven demand and currency factors support London gold above $3300 per ounce, and silver outperforms gold. Gold's safe - haven demand is boosted by Trump's new policies, with rising volatility but a good medium - term upward trend. Investors are advised to maintain a long - position mindset and participate in trading with medium - to - low positions. This week, attention should be paid to the preliminary June PMI values in Europe and the US, the Fed Chairman's congressional testimony, the May PCE inflation in the US, and the development of the Middle East situation [4]. 3.1.2 Medium - term Quotes - In April, Trump's tariff measures triggered a shock in the global financial market, pushing the gold price to break through $3500 per ounce. Although the gold price has corrected from its high due to the fading emotional impact and the marginal improvement of global trade, the medium - term upward trend remains good. The long - and medium - term factors driving the gold price increase will continue, but short - term volatility has increased significantly. Investors are advised to avoid full - position chasing and blind short - selling, and short - biased traders can consider the "long gold, short silver" arbitrage strategy [5]. 3.1.3 Domestic Precious Metals Quotes | Contract | Previous Closing Price | Highest Price | Lowest Price | Closing Price | Daily Change (%) | Open Interest | Change in Open Interest | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Shanghai Gold Index | 776.05 | 777.64 | 772.42 | 777.59 | 0.20% | 412,622 | - 3795 | | Shanghai Silver Index | 8,749 | 8,827 | 8,689 | 8,821 | 0.82% | 883,880 | 12,149 | | Gold T + D | 771.68 | 773.31 | 767.65 | 773.26 | 0.20% | 211,684 | 1,818 | | Silver T + D | 8,698 | 8,777 | 8,641 | 8,773 | 0.86% | 3,182,526 | 54,730 | [5] 3.2 Precious Metals Market - Related Charts - The report presents multiple charts, including Shanghai gold and silver futures indices, London gold and silver spot prices, the basis of Shanghai futures indices to Shanghai Gold T + D, gold and silver ETF holdings, the gold - to - silver ratio, and the correlation between London gold and other assets, with data sourced from Wind and the Research and Development Department of CCB Futures [7][9][11]. 3.3 Major Macroeconomic Events/Data - Trump welcomes the quick end of the Israel - Iran war and may hold talks with Iranian officials next week, while the US has not given up on extreme pressure on Iran but may relax law enforcement. The IAEA Director - General emphasizes the need for IAEA personnel to return to Iranian nuclear facilities for assessment [17]. - Fed Chairman Powell believes that Trump's tariff plan may only cause a one - time price increase, but the risk of more persistent inflation is significant, making the Fed cautious about further interest rate cuts, highlighting the difference between Powell and Trump [17]. - Trump considers providing more Patriot missiles to Ukraine and hopes Putin will end the war. He had a 50 - minute meeting with Ukrainian President Zelensky during the NATO summit [17].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided 2. Core View of the Report - Gold's safe - haven demand is greatly boosted by Trump 2.0's new policies, with increased volatility but a good medium - term upward trend. It is recommended that investors maintain a long position with a medium - low position and avoid full - position chasing or random guessing of the top. For those with a bearish mindset, they can consider the arbitrage strategy of "going long on gold and short on silver". Silver is relatively weak due to industrial demand pressure [4][5] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1. Precious Metals Market Quotes and Outlook 3.1.1. Intraday Quotes - Fed officials' pessimistic remarks on the US economy pushed the US dollar index below 100 again. Geopolitical concerns resurfaced as Israel was reported to be ready to attack Iranian nuclear facilities. These factors drove the price of London gold above $3300 per ounce, validating the support level between $3133 - $3200. Due to the fading optimism from the marginal improvement in Sino - US trade relations, the recent performance of silver has lagged behind that of gold, and the London gold - silver ratio has risen back above 100 [4] 3.1.2. Medium - term Quotes - In early April, Trump's tariff measures far exceeded market expectations, causing a shock in the global market and depressing global financial assets including gold. However, the triple safe - haven demand from the restructuring of the global trade and currency system, the recession of the US and global economy, and the volatility of the US financial market pushed the London gold price above $3500 per ounce on April 22. Although the gold price has retreated due to the easing of Sino - US trade relations and geopolitical tensions, the medium - term upward trend remains good [5] 3.2. Precious Metals Market - Related Charts - The report presents multiple charts including the Shanghai gold and silver futures indices, London gold and silver spot prices, the basis of Shanghai futures indices against Shanghai Gold T + D, gold and silver ETF holdings, the gold - silver ratio, and the correlation between London gold and other assets [7][9][11] 3.3. Major Macroeconomic Events/Data - Fed officials said that US tariff hikes would lead to price increases, but it's unclear whether the inflation impact is short - lived or long - term. Atlanta Fed President Bostic expects only one 25 - basis - point rate cut this year, and St. Louis Fed President Mousalem said the labor market may weaken and prices will rise even if Sino - US trade relations ease [17] - The EU and the UK announced new sanctions against Russia without waiting for the US. The new sanctions target Russia's shadow fleet tankers and financial companies that help Russia avoid other sanctions. Russia will not yield to ultimatums [17] - Trump pressured Republican colleagues in Congress to support a comprehensive tax - cut bill, but some Republicans may block it. House Republican leaders will continue to promote the bill and plan to vote this week [17] - The EU plans to impose a uniform handling fee on billions of small packages entering the region, mainly from China, with an estimated fee of about $2.25 per package [18] - US intelligence indicates that Israel may be preparing to attack Iranian nuclear facilities, though it's unclear if a final decision has been made [18]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - The geopolitical situation, such as the lack of consensus in Russia - Ukraine direct negotiations, European sanctions on Russia, and Trump's trade policies, boosts the safe - haven demand for gold, with its mid - line upward trend remaining good, but silver is relatively weak due to industrial demand pressure [4][5]. - The long - and mid - term factors driving up the gold price will continue to exist, including the restructuring of the global trade and monetary system, the recession prospects of the US and the global economy, and the volatility of the US financial market. It is recommended that investors maintain a long - position mentality and participate in trading with medium - to - low positions [5]. 3. Summary by Directory I. Precious Metals Market Quotes and Outlook - **Intraday Quotes**: The lack of consensus in Russia - Ukraine direct negotiations, European sanctions on Russia, and US threats of tariffs have pushed up the safe - haven demand, driving the London gold price above $3200 per ounce. The support level of London gold at $3130 - $3200 per ounce should be observed. Gold's safe - haven demand is greatly enhanced, with increased volatility but a good mid - line upward trend. Silver is relatively weak due to industrial demand pressure. Attention should be paid to China's April economic data and the preliminary May PMI values of Europe and the US this week [4]. - **Domestic Precious Metals Quotes**: The Shanghai Gold Index closed at 756.92, up 0.55%; the Shanghai Silver Index closed at 8153, up 0.40%; Gold T + D closed at 754.29, up 0.98%; Silver T + D closed at 8115, up 0.66% [5]. - **Mid - line Quotes**: Trump's tariff measures in early April shocked the global market and depressed financial assets. However, due to the damage to the US dollar's credit, the triple safe - haven demand pushed the London gold price above $3500 per ounce on April 22. Although the gold price has corrected, the mid - line upward trend remains good. It is recommended that investors maintain a long - position mentality and participate in trading with medium - to - low positions, and short - biased traders can consider the "long gold, short silver" arbitrage [5]. II. Precious Metals Market - Related Charts - The report provides multiple charts, including the Shanghai gold and silver futures indices, London gold and silver spot prices, the basis of Shanghai futures indices against Shanghai Gold T + D, gold and silver ETF holdings, the gold - silver ratio, and the correlation between London gold and other assets [7][9][11]. III. Major Macroeconomic Events/Data - Moody's downgraded the US sovereign credit rating from "Aaa" to "Aa1" due to concerns about the sustainability of US debt and changed the rating outlook from "negative" to "stable" [17]. - The US consumer confidence in May further deteriorated, and the one - year inflation expectation soared to the highest level since the end of 1981. The University of Michigan consumer confidence index dropped from 52.2 in April to 50.8 in May, and the 12 - month inflation expectation rose from 6.5% in April to 7.3% [17]. - US Treasury Secretary Besent said that President Trump will impose tariffs on countries lacking "good - will" in trade negotiations at the rates announced on April 2. The definition of "good - will" and the time of imposing tariffs are not clear [18]. - China's Ministry of Commerce announced the final anti - dumping investigation results on imported copolymerized polyoxymethylene from the US, the EU, Taiwan (China), and Japan, imposing anti - dumping duties ranging from 3.8% to 74.9%, with the highest rate on US companies [18].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - Gold's mid - line upward trend remains intact, with increased volatility. Investors are advised to maintain a long - position mindset and participate in trading with medium - to - low positions. For those with a bearish bias, the "long gold, short silver" arbitrage trade can be considered. Silver is relatively weak due to industrial demand pressure [4][5]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Precious Metals Market Quotes and Outlook - **Intraday Quotes**: Overnight, London gold rebounded by over $130/ounce from $3120/ounce due to the dim prospects of Russia - Ukraine negotiations and the Fed's revision of its monetary policy framework. However, the Iran - US nuclear deal negotiations and the outlook for Iranian crude oil exports pressured oil prices and weakened gold's safe - haven and inflation - hedging demand. As of May 16 Asian session, London gold weakened and adjusted to $3210/ounce. Currently, the gold price has adjusted to around the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement level since the rally in late 2024, where there may be some support. Gold's safe - haven demand is significantly boosted by Trump 2.0's new policies, but silver is relatively weak under industrial demand pressure [4]. - **Domestic Precious Metals Quotes**: The Shanghai Gold Index closed at 752.79, up 1.65%; the Shanghai Silver Index closed at 8,121, up 1.16%; Gold T + D closed at 747.28, up 1.62%; Silver T + D closed at 8,062, up 1.19% [5]. - **Mid - line Quotes**: In early April, Trump's tariff measures shocked the global market and pressured global financial assets including gold. However, due to Trump's actions damaging the US dollar's credit, the triple safe - haven demand drove the London gold price to break through $3500/ounce on April 22. Although the Sino - US trade situation and geopolitical tensions have eased, the mid - level upward trend of gold remains good. The long - and mid - term factors driving gold prices will continue to exist, but short - term surges and high price - to - earnings ratios also mean increased volatility [5]. 3.2 Precious Metals Market - Related Charts The report presents multiple charts, including Shanghai gold and silver futures indices, London gold and silver spot prices, the basis of Shanghai futures indices against Shanghai Gold T + D, gold and silver ETF holdings, the gold - to - silver ratio, and the correlation between London gold and other assets [7][9][11]. 3.3 Major Macroeconomic Events/Data - **Iran - US Nuclear Deal Negotiations**: Trump said the US is close to reaching a nuclear deal with Iran, but an Iranian source said there are still gaps to bridge. Negotiations ended in Oman on Sunday, and further talks are expected due to Iran's uranium - enrichment activities [17]. - **Russia - Ukraine Peace Talks**: Putin refused to meet Zelensky face - to - face in Turkey and sent a second - tier delegation. Zelensky will send a delegation led by the defense minister. Trump and US Secretary of State Rubio said they have low expectations for the talks [17]. - **US - UAE Relations**: Trump promised to strengthen US - UAE relations, announcing deals worth over $200 billion and deeper cooperation in the AI field. Etihad Airways will invest $14.5 billion in Boeing aircraft [18]. - **US Retail Sales**: US retail sales growth slowed significantly in April. After a 1.7% increase in March, it rose only 0.1% in April, with a year - on - year increase of 5.2%. Core retail sales excluding certain items decreased by 0.2% [18]. - **China's Urban Renewal**: China aims to make significant progress in urban renewal by 2030, with increased support from central budgetary investment and special ultra - long - term treasury bonds [18].

Report Information - Report Title: Precious Metals Daily Review - Date: May 15, 2025 - Research Team: Macro Finance Team - Researchers: He Zhuoqiao (Macro Precious Metals), Huang Wenxin (Treasury Bonds and Container Shipping), Nie Jiayi (Stock Index) [2] Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report Core Viewpoints - The short - term cooling of Sino - US trade tensions and the prospects of Russia - Ukraine negotiations weaken the safe - haven demand for precious metals, but the lower - than - expected US CPI in April and the weakening of the US dollar index provide some support for precious metals. Gold's safe - haven demand is boosted by Trump 2.0's new policies, with increased volatility but a good medium - term upward trend. Investors are advised to maintain a long - position mindset [4]. - In the medium term, although gold prices have corrected due to partial profit - taking and government remarks, the medium - term upward trend remains good. The long - and medium - term factors driving up gold prices will continue to exist, and investors are advised to trade with a long - position mindset, avoid full - position chasing, and not blindly guess the top. Bearish traders can consider the "long gold, short silver" arbitrage strategy [5]. Summary by Directory 1. Precious Metals Market Trends and Outlook Intraday Trends - Sino - US trade tension cooling and Russia - Ukraine negotiation prospects reduce precious metals' safe - haven demand, while lower - than - expected US CPI in April and a weak US dollar index support precious metals. London gold runs weakly above $3200 per ounce, and the London gold - silver ratio drops to around 98.5 [4]. Medium - term Trends - In early April, Trump's tariff measures shocked the global market and depressed financial assets. However, due to the damage to the US dollar's credit, the triple safe - haven demand drove the London gold price to break through $3500 per ounce on April 22. Although there was a correction, the medium - term upward trend remains good. The long - and medium - term factors driving up gold prices will continue to exist, and gold price volatility has increased [5]. Domestic Precious Metals Market Data | Contract | Pre - closing Price | Highest Price | Lowest Price | Closing Price | Change Rate (%) | Open Interest | Position Change | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Shanghai Gold Index | 768.55 | 769.04 | 761.69 | 762.62 | - 0.77 | 453,027 | 0 | | Shanghai Silver Index | 8,257 | 8,257 | 8,174 | 8,210 | - 0.56 | 875,273 | - 13,683 | | Gold T + D | 763.40 | 764.75 | 757.00 | 758.60 | - 0.63 | 216,998 | - 7,820 | | Silver T + D | 8,214 | 8,205 | 8,121 | 8,172 | - 0.51 | 3,391,270 | - 1,490 | [5] 2. Precious Metals Market - Related Charts - The report provides multiple charts, including Shanghai gold and silver futures indices, London gold and silver spot prices, the basis of Shanghai futures indices against Shanghai Gold Exchange T + D, gold and silver ETF holdings, the gold - silver ratio, and the correlation between London gold and other assets [7][9][11] 3. Major Macroeconomic Events/Data - Trump announced the lifting of long - term sanctions on Syria during his Persian Gulf trip and said Saudi Arabia promised to invest $600 billion in the US [18]. - US consumer prices rose moderately in April, with the smallest annual increase in four years. The impact of tariffs on inflation is expected to appear in the middle of the year [18]. - Ukrainian President Zelensky said he would only participate in the Russia - Ukraine talks if Putin also attends. Trump will send Secretary of State Rubio to the talks and is willing to attend in person [18]. - China criticized the UK - US trade agreement, stating that international cooperation should not harm third - party interests [18]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core View of the Report - Gold's safe - haven demand is greatly boosted due to Trump's new policies and global political and economic uncertainties. Gold's volatility has increased, but the medium - term upward trend is well - maintained. It is recommended that investors maintain a long - position mindset. Silver is relatively weak under industrial demand pressure. Traders with a short - position bias can consider the "long gold, short silver" arbitrage strategy [4][5]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs I. Precious Metals Market Conditions and Outlook - **Intraday Market**: The prospect of eased Sino - US trade tensions and the US - Ukraine mineral agreement initially pushed down the price of London gold to around $3200 per ounce. However, Trump's new tariff threats and resumption of arms sales to Ukraine, along with potential conflicts between India and Pakistan, strengthened the safe - haven demand. On May 6, London gold rebounded to around $3400 per ounce. The appreciation of the RMB against the US dollar made domestic gold and silver relatively weak. This week, attention should be paid to the Fed's interest - rate meeting and China's foreign trade and inflation data in April [4]. - **Medium - term Market**: In early April, Trump's tariff measures caused global market turmoil and depressed global financial assets including gold. But due to the damage to the US dollar's credit, triple safe - haven demands drove the London gold price to break through $3500 per ounce on April 22. Although the price corrected due to profit - taking and the government's soothing remarks, the medium - term upward trend remains good. The long - and medium - term factors driving up the gold price will continue to exist, though the short - term sharp rise and high price - earnings ratio also mean increased volatility [5]. II. Precious Metals Market - Related Charts The report presents multiple charts showing the trends of Shanghai and London gold and silver futures and spot prices, the basis between Shanghai futures index and Shanghai Gold T + D, gold and silver ETF holdings, gold - silver ratio, and the correlation between London gold and other assets. The specific trends can be observed from these charts [7][9][15]. III. Major Macroeconomic Events/Data - The US service PMI in April increased by 0.8 points to 51.6, and the inflation pressure caused by tariffs is rising. US service companies are worried about the impact of tariffs on prices and the sharp reduction in federal spending [16]. - The US Treasury Secretary believes that Trump's policies will promote long - term investment in the US economy, and the US financial market can withstand short - term turmoil. Trump plans to announce drug tariffs in the next two weeks [16]. - The IMF President called on China to shift from an export - oriented economic growth model and address four economic issues [16]. - India has started to increase the water storage capacity of two hydropower projects in Kashmir after suspending the water - sharing agreement with Pakistan, which may affect Pakistan's water supply [17].