1. Core Views - The short - term and medium - term views of both coking coal and coke are "sideways", and the intraday views are "sideways to the downside". The overall reference view is a sideways trading approach [1]. - For coking coal, the pessimistic market sentiment dominates, leading to its weak performance. For coke, the weak fundamentals cause it to decline sideways [1]. 2. Price and Logic for Coking Coal - The latest quoted price of Mongolian coking coal at the Ganqimao Port is 1170.0 yuan/ton, with a week - on - week decrease of 2.5%. The accelerating release of Mongolian coking coal imports exerts pressure on the supply side, driving the weak operation of coking coal. However, considering the expected macro - level benefits from the Politburo economic meeting in December and the expected coal mine production cuts at the end of the year, the sustainability of the current decline in coking coal futures remains to be seen. Attention should be paid to the actual coal mine production [5]. 3. Price and Logic for Coke - The latest quoted price index of quasi - first - grade wet - quenched coke at Rizhao Port is 1620 yuan/ton, and the ex - warehouse price at Qingdao Port is 1450 yuan/ton, both remaining unchanged week - on - week. Currently, the supply pressure of coking coal drags down the weak operation of coke futures. However, considering the possible macro - level benefits from the Politburo economic meeting in December and the expected coal mine production cuts at the end of the year, the sustainability of the decline in coke remains to be seen. The main downside risk lies in the unexpectedly abundant supply of coking coal [6].

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - In November, the downward trend of coke was driven by increased coking coal supply and weak downstream demand, along with policy factors. However, in December, with the expected macro - economic improvement and potential coal mine production cuts, the downward pressure on coke may ease, and the main contract is expected to gradually stabilize. The main risk is the unexpectedly loose supply of coking coal [2][6] Group 3: Summary by Related Content Current Market Situation of Coke Futures - In November, the J2601 contract of coke futures dropped 11.4%, with the lowest price at 1562.0 yuan/ton. As of December 3, the main contract closed at 1624.5 yuan/ton, down 1.23% daily [2] Spot Market Situation - Since mid - November, coking coal prices have weakened due to increased supply and futures drag. As of November 28, the daily output of coking coal in 523 mines was 76.4 tons, up 2.6 tons/day from November 7. In November, the Ganqimaodu Port's cumulative customs clearance increased by 38.6% month - on - month and 5.5% year - on - year. The coking coal auction failure rate rose to 30% - 60% in mid - to - late November. On December 3, the price of low - sulfur coking coal in Linfen, Shanxi and Mongolian coking coal at Ganqimaodu Port dropped significantly from the November high. On December 1, the first round of coke price cuts was implemented, but the subsequent price cut space may be limited [3] Supply and Demand Analysis - In the short term, coke supply has increased while demand has decreased. As of November 28, the combined daily output of coke from coking plants and steel mills was 110.08 tons, up 1.19 tons week - on - week. The daily output of molten iron in 247 steel mills was 234.68 tons, down 1.60 tons week - on - week. In the future, the demand pressure on coke is expected to ease [4] Overall Conclusion - In November, coke futures declined due to negative factors in the fundamentals and policies. In December, with the expected macro - economic improvement and potential coal mine production cuts, the negative drivers for coke are weakening, and the main contract is expected to stabilize at the lower edge of the shock range. The main risk is the unexpectedly loose supply of coking coal [6]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Viewpoints of the Report - The short - term, medium - term and intraday views of both coking coal 2601 and coke 2601 are "oscillation", and the reference view is the oscillation idea. For coking coal, it runs at a low level; for coke, there is insufficient cost support, and it is in oscillation consolidation [1] Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 1. Time Cycle Explanation - Short - term refers to within one week, medium - term refers to two weeks to one month. Oscillation stronger/weaker only applies to intraday views, and there is no distinction for short - term and medium - term views [1][4] 2. Main Variety Price Quotation and Calculation Method - For varieties with night trading, the starting price is the night trading closing price; for those without night trading, it is the previous day's closing price. The ending price is the day's daytime trading closing price to calculate the rise - fall range. A decline of more than 1% is considered weak, a decline of 0 - 1% is oscillation weaker, a rise of 0 - 1% is oscillation stronger, and a rise of more than 1% is strong [2][3] 3. Price and Driving Logic of Coking Coal - **Price**: The latest quotation of Mongolian coking coal at Ganqimaodu Port in the spot market is 1200.0 yuan/ton, with a week - on - week decline of 6.3% [5] - **Driving Logic**: The coking coal demand side has no obvious differences, and the supply side is the core factor leading the disk trend. Recently, the National Development and Reform Commission has emphasized energy supply guarantee during the heating season, reducing the market's expectation of a new round of anti - involution measures in the coal industry during the peak winter period. Also, the recent coking coal production has not been affected by the central safety production annual assessment and inspection, and the import volume has been accelerating, weakening the previous supply - side logic that supported the coal price increase. However, considering the Political Bureau Economic Meeting in December and the year - end coal mine production reduction expectation, there is some resistance to the further decline of coking coal futures. The subsequent focus is on coal mine production [5] 4. Price and Driving Logic of Coke - **Price**: The latest quotation of the flat - price index of the quasi - first - grade wet - quenched coke at Rizhao Port in the spot market is 1620 yuan/ton, with a week - on - week decline of 2.99%; the ex - warehouse price of the quasi - first - grade wet - quenched coke at Qingdao Port is 1450 yuan/ton, with a week - on - week flat [6] - **Driving Logic**: In terms of supply and demand, the latest Steel Union data shows that the average daily coke output is 110.08 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 1.19 million tons; the average daily hot - metal output of 247 steel mills is 234.68 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 1.6 million tons, and the steel mill profitability rate has dropped to 35.06%, with large - scale losses in steel mills and pressure on the demand side. Overall, there is still uncertainty on the coking coal supply side in December, there is some resistance to the further decline of coke futures, the main contract is consolidating at the lower edge of the oscillation range, and the subsequent focus is on the actual production of coal mines [6]