此次考核巡查是中共中央办公厅、国务院办公厅印发《安全生产考核巡查办法》以来，首次组织开展的 年度安全生产考核巡查。考核巡查聚焦党委和政府、有关部门落实安全生产责任情况，以及重点工作成 效，采取座谈问询、明查暗访、调阅重点资料、约谈会商、个别谈话、专家指导服务等方式开展工作， 同步核查前期掌握的问题隐患线索，抽查前三季度明查暗访反馈的问题隐患整改落实和系统治理情况。 通过严格开展年度考核巡查，推动各级党委和政府、有关部门更好统筹发展和安全，持续加强和改进安 全生产工作，坚决防范遏制重特大生产安全事故发生，推动全国安全生产形势持续稳定。考核巡查过程 中，将坚决贯彻落实中央八项规定及其实施细则精神，注重提高考核巡查质效和整治形式主义为基层减 负并重，把"多通报、多发督促函、多暗访、多拍摄隐患场景"贯穿全过程。 据应急管理部11月11日消息，近日，2025年度中央安全生产考核巡查正式启动，由国务院安委会有关成 员单位负责同志带队的22个中央安全生产考核巡查组陆续进驻31个省、自治区、直辖市和新疆生产建设 兵团，对2025年度安全生产工作开展考核巡查，11月底完成。截至11月10日，已有10个中央安全生产考 核巡查组进 ...

12月份，各中央安全生产考核巡查组还将对40个国务院安委会成员单位开展现场考核巡查，针对在地方 发现的问题不足，溯源到相关成员单位，从顶层设计推动解决问题。 新京报讯 据@应急管理部 消息，近日，2025年度中央安全生产考核巡查正式启动，由国务院安委会有 关成员单位负责同志带队的22个中央安全生产考核巡查组陆续进驻31个省、自治区、直辖市和新疆生产 建设兵团，对2025年度安全生产工作开展考核巡查，11月底完成。截至11月10日，已有10个中央安全生 产考核巡查组进驻山西、黑龙江、辽宁、江苏、江西、海南、重庆、云南、甘肃、新疆开展工作。 此次考核巡查是中共中央办公厅、国务院办公厅印发《安全生产考核巡查办法》以来，首次组织开展的 年度安全生产考核巡查。考核巡查聚焦党委和政府、有关部门落实安全生产责任情况，以及重点工作成 效，采取座谈问询、明查暗访、调阅重点资料、约谈会商、个别谈话、专家指导服务等方式开展工作， 同步核查前期掌握的问题隐患线索，抽查前三季度明查暗访反馈的问题隐患整改落实和系统治理情况。 通过严格开展年度考核巡查，推动各级党委和政府、有关部门更好统筹发展和安全，持续加强和改进安 全生产工作，坚决防范 ...

Core Viewpoint - The coal market in China is experiencing a price increase due to low port inventories, seasonal demand, and regulatory constraints on production, leading to improved performance expectations for coal companies [1][2][3] Group 1: Market Conditions - Coal port inventories have dropped to a three-year low, prompting price increases at production sites, with Qinhuangdao port prices stabilizing at 770 yuan/ton [1] - The onset of winter and significant temperature drops in northern China have initiated the seasonal demand for coal, with early heating measures already in place in several regions [1] - The "anti-involution" policy and upcoming safety inspections are expected to further constrain coal supply, reinforcing price stability and potential increases [1][2] Group 2: Price Trends - According to Zhongtai Securities, coal prices are expected to maintain a steady upward trend due to the heating season and enhanced safety production checks [2] - The sample power plants' coal inventory has decreased by 222 million tons year-on-year, while port inventories have dropped by 245 million tons, indicating a tight supply situation [2] - The shipping volume for the first four weeks of October was 20.34 million tons, down 10.8% month-on-month and 40.1% year-on-year, reflecting production constraints [2] Group 3: Company Performance - In Q3, the coal sector reported revenues of 297.9 billion yuan, a year-on-year decline of 16.5% but a quarter-on-quarter increase of 1.5%, with net profits improving by 14.1% from Q2 [3] - China Shenhua's Q3 coal production reached 86 million tons, a year-on-year increase of 2.3%, while sales volume was 112 million tons, down 3.5% year-on-year [2][3] - Yancoal Australia reported a 9% year-on-year decline in coal production for Q3, while sales volume increased by 3% [2] Group 4: Company Insights - China Shenhua holds significant coal reserves, with a total of 3.44 billion tons and a production capacity of 327 million tons for 2024, positioning it as a leader in the industry [4] - China Coal Energy ranks third in coal resource reserves among listed companies, with a production capacity of 165 million tons and ongoing projects expected to enhance output [5] - Yancoal plans to produce 155-160 million tons of coal by 2025, with ongoing projects expected to add nearly 50 million tons of capacity [5]

Report Title - South China Futures Coking Coal and Coke Industry Weekly Report [1] Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Views - The overall trend of coking coal and coke is strong, but negative feedback risks need to be vigilant. The rebound height and sustainability of coal and coke prices ultimately depend on whether the supply - demand balance sheet of downstream steel products can achieve a "soft landing" [2]. - In the short term, the coking coal spot market has a tight resource pattern, but the downstream steel product supply - demand contradiction has deteriorated marginally, and the steel mill's profitability is under pressure, restricting the rebound space of coking coal [2]. - In the long term, in the fourth quarter, domestic mine production is restricted by policies, and the supply elasticity of coking coal is limited. The market expectation for the winter storage in 2026 is improved, which will support the prices of coking coal and coke [8]. Summary by Directory Chapter 1: Core Contradictions and Strategy Recommendations 1.1 Core Contradictions - The coking coal spot market has a tight resource pattern. Before the festival, there was overselling at the pithead, the upstream inventory pressure was generally light, and the mine owners were strongly willing to hold prices. The supply of Mongolian coal at the port has also tightened, and the inventory in the regulatory area is low [2][4]. - The supply - demand contradiction of downstream steel products has deteriorated marginally, the steel mills' profitability is under pressure, and the black industry shows the characteristic of "not prosperous in the peak season". The rebound space of coking coal is restricted, and there is a risk of negative feedback [2]. - The rebound height and sustainability of coal and coke prices depend on whether the supply - demand balance sheet of downstream steel products can achieve a "soft landing" [2]. 1.2 Trading - Type Strategy Recommendations - **Market Positioning**: The entry interval is (-70, -60) [10]. - **Basis, Calendar Spread, and Hedging Arbitrage Strategy Recommendations** - Basis strategy: The recent basis of coking coal and coke has little fluctuation, and the coke futures price is between the dry and wet coke warehouse - receipt costs, with a relatively reasonable valuation. There is no definite spot - futures positive arbitrage opportunity [11]. - Calendar spread strategy: It is recommended to pay attention to the 1 - 5 reverse spread of coking coal. Reasons include industrial hedging short positions and warehouse - receipt pressure in the 01 contract, weak short - selling power in the far - month 05 contract; limited position constraints in the 01 contract and fewer restrictions in the far - month contracts; and the expansion of delivery warehouses and capacity by the DCE, which is beneficial for short - selling delivery [11]. - Hedging arbitrage strategy: Short the coking profit on the futures market at high prices, with the recommended entry interval of 01 coke/coking coal (1.5 - 1.55) [11][13]. - **Recent Strategy Review**: Some strategies such as the 9 - 1 reverse spread of coking coal, shorting the coking profit on the futures market, etc., are in different states of execution [17]. 1.3 Industry Customer Operation Recommendations - **Price Range Forecast**: The price range of coking coal is predicted to be 1100 - 1300, and that of coke is 1550 - 1800 [14]. - **Risk Management Strategy Recommendations** - Inventory hedging: Steel mills' profitability is shrinking marginally, and coke enterprises' price increase is difficult. Coke enterprises can short the J2601 contract to lock in the sales price, with different recommended hedging ratios and entry intervals [14]. - Procurement management: Affected by policies, the supply of coking coal is disturbed. Coking plants can go long on the JM2605 contract to lock in the procurement price, with different recommended hedging ratios and entry intervals [14]. 1.4 Basic Data Overview - **Coking Coal Supply and Inventory**: The production of coking coal in some mines and washing plants has increased, and the total inventory has increased slightly. The inventory in some ports has decreased [15]. - **Coke Supply and Inventory**: The production of coke in independent coking plants and steel mills has decreased, and the total inventory has decreased [15]. - **Spot and Futures Prices**: The prices of coking coal and coke in the spot and futures markets have shown different trends, and the basis, calendar spread, and coking profit have also changed [16][18]. Chapter 2: This Week's Important Information and Next Week's Attention Events 2.1 This Week's Important Information - **Positive Information**: The central safety production assessment and inspection are about to be carried out; the probability of the Fed's interest rate cut is high; mainstream coke enterprises plan to raise the price of dry - quenched coke [21]. - **Negative Information**: The supply and inventory of five major steel products have decreased, but the consumption is still lower than the same period in previous years; the average profit per ton of coke in independent coking plants is negative; the blast furnace operating rate of steel mills is flat, but the profitability is shrinking [22]. 2.2 Next Week's Important Events to Follow - Next Monday: Release of China's one - year loan prime rate, year - on - year growth rate of social consumer goods retail sales in September, and year - on - year growth rate of industrial added value of large - scale industries in September [23]. - October 20 - 23: The Fourth Plenary Session of the 20th Central Committee will be held [24]. - Next Thursday: Release of the number of initial jobless claims in the US for the week ending October 18 [24]. - Next Friday: Release of the US unadjusted CPI annual rate in September, the preliminary value of the US S&P Global Manufacturing PMI in October, and the final value of the US University of Michigan Consumer Confidence Index in October [24]. Chapter 3: Futures Market Analysis 3.1 Price, Volume, and Capital Analysis - **Unilateral Trend**: The main coking coal contract JM2601 is in a wide - range shock interval of 1100 - 1300 yuan/ton, with strong support at the lower edge of the interval [25]. - **Capital Flow**: The net short positions of the main coking coal seats have decreased significantly, and the market's bullish expectation for the future has increased. The net short positions of the profitable coke seats have first increased and then decreased, and the market sentiment has improved [27]. - **Calendar Spread Structure**: The coking coal and coke market shows a deep C - shaped structure. The 1 - 5 calendar spread of coking coal strengthened during the week and then declined slightly [31]. - **Basis Structure**: The recent basis of coking coal and coke has little fluctuation, and the coke futures price is between the dry and wet coke warehouse - receipt costs, with a relatively reasonable valuation. There is no definite spot - futures positive arbitrage opportunity [38]. - **Spread Structure**: The coking profit on the futures market has continued to fluctuate at a low level. It is recommended to short the coking profit on the futures market at high prices [44]. Chapter 4: Valuation and Profit Analysis 4.1 Industry Chain Upstream and Downstream Profit Tracking - The mine profit has improved month - on - month, but the immediate coking profit has been damaged. The steel mill's profit has continued to shrink, and the iron - making output has decreased marginally [46]. 4.2 Import and Export Profit Tracking - The import profit of Mongolian coal has recovered, and the customs clearance enthusiasm has increased. The import profit of sea - borne coal has shrunk, and the subsequent arrival pressure is expected to ease [50][54]. Chapter 5: Supply - Demand and Inventory Deduction 5.1 Supply - Side and Deduction - The production increase space of coking coal mines in the fourth quarter is limited. It is expected that the average weekly output of coking coal from mid - to late October will be 980 - 985 tons. The net import volume of coking coal in October is expected to be 980 tons, with an average weekly net import volume of about 221 tons [72]. - The coke production enthusiasm is suppressed, and it is expected that the weekly coke production from mid - to late October will be maintained at 773 - 775 tons [75]. 5.2 Demand - Side and Deduction - The blast furnace profitability has declined marginally, and some steel mills have gradually switched to producing hot - rolled coils. As the traditional off - season approaches, the number of steel mills planning to carry out maintenance is increasing, and the iron - making output is expected to decline slowly [77]. 5.3 Supply - Demand Balance Sheet Deduction - The supply - demand balance sheets of coking coal and coke are estimated, including production, import, total supply, theoretical iron - making output, actual iron - making output, and inventory [80].

Core Viewpoint - The Ministry of Emergency Management has announced stricter accountability measures for safety production assessments and inspections in 2024, aiming to reduce the total number of fatalities from production safety accidents to below 20,000 for the first time and to decrease major accidents to single digits [1][2]. Group 1: Assessment and Inspection Measures - The central safety production assessment and inspection will be more rigorous, with a focus on effective implementation of safety responsibilities [1]. - In October, the ministry will collect public feedback and reports on safety issues, while from November to December, 22 inspection teams will conduct assessments across various regions and government units [1][2]. - The assessment will particularly target key industries and local safety issues, with a focus on the responsibilities of local governments and relevant departments [1]. Group 2: Methods and Focus Areas - The assessment methods will include discussions, public feedback collection, surprise inspections, and expert guidance, emphasizing five key areas of scrutiny [2]. - The five areas include checking the safety responsibility of party and government leaders, the performance of safety duties by relevant departments, the progress of safety improvement actions, industries with a rise in major accidents, and significant issues reported by the public [2]. - The ministry will ensure that identified issues are rectified and will hold departments accountable for local problems, promoting a top-down approach to problem-solving [2]. Group 3: Supervision and Accountability - The ministry will focus on ensuring that identified safety issues are resolved effectively, promoting a comprehensive approach to safety improvements [2]. - Typical cases identified during the assessments will be publicly disclosed, and strict accountability measures will be enforced according to the established regulations [2].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the coal industry, with specific recommendations for various companies based on their performance and market conditions [4][3]. Core Insights - The upcoming safety production assessments are expected to tighten coal supply, potentially leading to a rebound in coal prices, with expectations for prices to exceed 900 RMB/ton by the end of the year [2][9]. - The report highlights that the coal price has stabilized at 700 RMB/ton as of the end of September, primarily due to supply constraints [2][9]. - The transition into the heating season in November is anticipated to further increase demand for coal, particularly for non-electric uses such as coal chemical industries [2][9]. Summary by Sections Investment Recommendations - Recommended stocks include: 1. High spot price elasticity stocks: Lu'an Energy [4] 2. Stable performance and growth stocks: Jinkong Coal and Huayang Co. [4] 3. Stocks with recovery in production: Shanmei International [4] 4. Industry leaders with stable performance: China Shenhua, China Coal Energy, and Shaanxi Coal [4] 5. Beneficiaries of nuclear power growth: CGN Mining [4] Market Dynamics - The coal sector has shown a weekly increase of 4.3%, outperforming the broader market indices [14][16]. - The focus on safety inspections is expected to lead to further supply reductions, enhancing price momentum [2][9]. Company Performance - Notable stock performances include: - Baotailong with a 13.54% increase - Jinkong Coal with an 8.36% increase - Shaanxi Black Cat with a 7.51% increase [19][21]. Price Trends - As of October 10, coal prices at Qinhuangdao Port for Q5500 grade coal were reported at 703 RMB/ton, reflecting a slight increase [10][11]. - The report indicates that the focus on safety and production assessments will likely lead to a tightening of supply, which could support higher prices in the near term [2][9].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided 2. Core Views of the Report - After the holiday, the supply of domestic coking coal decreased slightly, the mine end accumulated a small amount of inventory, and the inventory of sample coal washing plants decreased significantly. The overall upstream inventory pressure is not large. With limited domestic supply increase after the holiday, Mongolian coal will make up for the supply, and the overall supply - demand is relatively balanced. The coking coal futures market is significantly affected by external macro - sentiment, and its fundamental driving force is limited. The short - term price has support below, and the upward space needs macro - and micro - resonance [6][35]. - Supported by coking coal costs, the first round of coke price increase was implemented on October 1st, improving the profitability of coke enterprises compared to before the holiday. However, the high - level fluctuations of raw material prices erode steel enterprises' profits, intensifying the game between steel and coke enterprises, and suppressing the upward space of coke enterprises' per - ton profit. Currently, the inventory pressure of independent coke enterprises has been significantly reduced. With the improvement of the inventory structure, the influence of the cost side increases, and the coke futures market follows the coking coal market [6][38]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Report Summary - Market Focus: The US will impose new port fees on three types of China - related ships from October 14th; the EU plans to cut the steel import quota eligible for tariff exemption and raise the steel tariff from 25% to 50%; China's relevant departments will guide the assessment of industry average costs to maintain market price order; 22 central safety inspection teams will conduct inspections in 31 provincial - level regions in November; a coal mine in Shaanxi has fully resumed production [6]. - Fundamental Overview: Domestic coking coal supply decreased slightly; upstream coking coal inventory pressure is not large; independent coke enterprises reduced coking coal inventory, and steel mills' raw material inventory decreased slightly; overall coke production was stable; hot metal production remained at a high level, supporting coke consumption; a new round of coke price increase was implemented [6]. 3.2 Multi - and Short - Focus - Bullish Factors: Reduced coking coal inventory pressure; high hot metal production supporting coke demand; environmental and safety inspections in autumn and winter affecting coal supply expectations [9]. - Bearish Factors: Recovery of Mongolian coal imports; low enthusiasm of steel mills for replenishing inventory; suppressed profitability of steel mills [9]. 3.3 Data Analysis - Domestic Coking Coal Supply: During the National Day holiday, the开工 rate and daily output of 523 sample mines and 314 sample coal washing plants decreased. Before the holiday, the customs clearance volume of Mongolian coal at the Ganqimaodu Port was at a high level. With limited domestic supply increase, Mongolian coal makes up for the supply [14]. - Coking Coal Upstream Inventory: As of October 10th, 523 sample mines' clean coal inventory increased, 314 sample coal washing plants' clean coal inventory decreased, and port coking coal inventory remained unchanged. The overall upstream inventory pressure is not large [17]. - Independent Coke Enterprises' Coking Coal Inventory: As of October 10th, the coking coal inventory of all - sample independent coking enterprises decreased, and the inventory - available days decreased. The coke inventory increased slightly [20]. - Steel Mills' Raw Material Inventory: As of October 10th, the coking coal and coke inventory of 247 steel enterprises decreased, and the inventory - available days decreased [24]. - Coke Production: As of October 10th, the capacity utilization rate and daily output of all - sample independent coking enterprises were relatively stable, while those of 247 steel enterprises decreased slightly. Overall coke production remained stable [26]. - Coke Consumption: As of the week of October 10th, China's coke consumption and 247 steel enterprises' hot metal daily output decreased slightly. Hot metal production remained at a high level, supporting coke demand [28]. - Coke Price Increase: As of October 9th, the average per - ton profit of 30 independent coking plants was 9 yuan/ton. The first - round coke price increase was implemented on October 1st, improving the profitability of coke enterprises. As of the week of October 10th, the profitability of 247 steel enterprises decreased, and the game between steel and coke enterprises intensified [30]. - Basis Structure of Coking Coal and Coke Futures: The spot and futures prices of coking coal and coke maintained a volatile trend [32]. 3.4后市研判 - Coking Coal: After the holiday, the supply - demand of coking coal is relatively balanced. The futures market is affected by macro - sentiment, and the fundamental driving force is limited. Future attention should be paid to the increase in upstream supply, downstream demand, and the impact of important domestic meetings in October [35]. - Coke: The first - round price increase improved the profitability of coke enterprises, but the game between steel and coke enterprises intensified, suppressing the profit space of coke enterprises. The coke futures market follows the coking coal market [38].

Core Points - The Ministry of Emergency Management announced that 22 central safety production assessment inspection teams will conduct annual assessments in 31 provinces, autonomous regions, municipalities, and the Xinjiang Production and Construction Corps in November 2023 [1] - From October 9 to October 31, the State Council's Safety Production Committee Office will accept reports of safety hazards and issues from the public through internet, phone, and mail [1] - The scope of accepted reports includes major safety hazards, illegal safety production activities, and suggestions for improving safety production responsibilities [1] Summary by Categories - **Inspection and Assessment** - 22 central safety production assessment inspection teams will be deployed for annual assessments in November 2023 [1] - The inspections will cover all 31 provinces, autonomous regions, municipalities, and the Xinjiang Production and Construction Corps [1] - **Public Reporting Mechanism** - The State Council's Safety Production Committee Office will accept reports from October 9 to October 31 through three channels: internet, phone, and mail [1] - The reporting will focus on significant safety hazards and illegal activities related to safety production [1] - **Encouragement for Public Participation** - The public is encouraged to provide information on safety production issues and hazards in their regions [1] - Reports can include feedback on the implementation of safety production responsibilities by various departments and suggestions for improvement [1]

Core Points - The Ministry of Emergency Management announced that 22 central safety production assessment teams will conduct annual assessments in 31 provinces, autonomous regions, municipalities, and the Xinjiang Production and Construction Corps starting in November 2023 [1] - From October 9 to October 31, the State Council's Safety Production Committee Office will accept reports of safety production issues and hidden dangers through internet, phone, and mail [1] - The scope of accepted reports includes major safety production hidden dangers, illegal activities related to safety production, and suggestions for improving safety production responsibilities at all levels [1]

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the upcoming safety production assessment and inspection work scheduled for November 2023, involving 22 central inspection teams across various regions in China, aimed at addressing safety production issues and collecting feedback from the public and workers [1]. Group 1: Safety Production Assessment - In November 2023, 22 central safety production assessment teams will conduct inspections in 31 provinces, autonomous regions, municipalities, and the Xinjiang Production and Construction Corps as part of the 2025 safety production assessment plan [1]. - The assessment will focus on major safety production issues, illegal activities, and suggestions for improving safety production responsibilities from frontline workers [1]. Group 2: Public Participation - From October 9 to October 31, 2023, the State Council's Safety Production Committee Office will accept reports of safety production issues through internet, phone, and mail [1][2]. - The public is encouraged to provide objective and truthful feedback regarding safety production issues in their regions [2]. Group 3: Reporting Methods - The reporting methods include a dedicated website and a phone line available from October 9 to 31, 2023, daily from 8:00 AM to 6:00 PM [3][4]. - Mail submissions should be addressed to a specific postal box in Beijing, ensuring proper formatting [5].