国外 4. 野村证券：触发日本当局干预的具体水平尚不确定，但大胆行动可能已为时不远 日元兑美元汇率走强，市场对日本当局可能进行外汇干预保持警惕。野村全球外汇策略团队在一份报告 中表示："触发干预的具体水平尚不确定，但大胆行动可能已为时不远。"报告提及近期有媒体报道称， 日本首相高市早苗已开始意识到日元疲软最终将影响其政治稳定性。分析师补充道："对于是否已达到 干预水平，我们尚无明确看法，但最好还是谨慎行事。" 5. 丹斯克银行：欧元兑美元可能在中期内走强 1. 瑞银：FOMO与泡沫焦虑预示着2026年股市将出现更多波动 瑞银分析师表示，明年美国股市势将保持紧张状态，因为投资者既担心错过人工智能的涨势，又担心这 是一个即将破灭的泡沫。在过去18个月里大跌和快速反转一直是股市的一个特点。这种趋势可能会持续 到2026年。一些策略师预计人工智能将遵循过去技术革命的盛衰周期。 2. 高盛：中国企业盈利2026年或将增长14%，料提振股市表现 高盛分析师发布报告指出，中国企业盈利明年可能增长14%，2027年或增长12%，有助于提振股市表 现。在"希望到增长"的周期中，将存在10%的估值重估潜力，Kinger Lau等 ...

中信证券研报称，结合中央经济工作会议和人民 银行近期表述看，2026年利率总量政策有望温和，预 计政策利率10bps幅度调降或在1~2次。对于银行定价而言，负债端中长期定存集中到期，有助于成本控 制；资产端LPR调整降频叠加终端利率下行放缓，收益率下行可控。我们预计，2026年银行业净息差降 幅收窄至4bps左右，为2022年以来首次年度息差降幅在低个位数水平。受益于此，上市银行全年营业收 入和归母净利润同比增速或分别改善至3.3%/2.8%左右，业绩稳定改善为板块稳定回报奠定扎实基础。 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - In the fourth quarter, the bond market may move in a volatile manner. The short - end has high allocation and trading value, and the inter - bank certificate of deposit rate is in a high - allocation - value range with the possibility of an unexpected decline at the end of the year. The long - end has some room for repair due to the previous expansion of the term spread. With the increasing expectation of easing, a more optimistic view on the subsequent bond market can be taken [2][9]. - To maintain relatively loose social financing conditions, it is necessary to maintain the growth rates of social financing and money supply, and pay attention to the red - line level around 8%. If the growth rates fall below this level, it may trigger monetary easing [2][4][10]. - The current interest - rate comparison relationships concerned by the central bank are relatively reasonable, which is a prerequisite for further reducing policy rates. After the large - scale repurchase in November, the necessity for the central bank to increase bond purchases and cut the reserve requirement ratio is low. The conditions for another reduction of policy rates are mature. For the bond market, the yield may maintain a narrow - range oscillation. A reduction in policy rates will bring an opportunity for the yield curve to shift downward, but the short - end has a more solid foundation for decline, while the long - end still faces strong cashing - out pressure [3][4][15]. 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 How to Understand the Relatively Loose Social Financing Conditions? - **Bond Market Outlook**: In the fourth quarter, the bond market may move in a volatile way. The short - end has high value, and the long - end has repair space. With the increasing easing expectation, the subsequent bond market can be viewed more optimistically [2][9]. - **Social Financing and Money Growth Rates**: Credit growth decline is not a major concern, but a further decline in social financing and money growth rates needs attention. The 8% growth - rate range reflects economic growth and price - expectation targets, and a fall below it may trigger monetary easing. The social financing growth is affected by the government bond issuance rhythm, and non - bank deposits maintain high volatility [10]. - **Interest - Rate Relationships and Policy Implications**: The current interest - rate comparison relationships are relatively reasonable. To maintain relatively loose social financing conditions, policy rates and related interest - rate levels can be further reduced to hedge economic pressure from a "cross - cycle" perspective [12]. - **Central Bank Operations**: After the large - scale repurchase in November (the combined scale of 3 - month and 6 - month repurchases reached 500 billion, and the stock scale rose to a new high of 6.3 trillion), the necessity for the central bank to increase bond purchases and cut the reserve requirement ratio is low [14].