智通财经APP获悉，东方证券发布研报称，央行再度提及"跨周期调节"，或表示货币政策力度将相对谨 慎。考虑到内外部环境的不确定性再度反复，市场风险偏好阶段性回落，以及银行基本面出现的息差企 稳等积极的基本面变化趋势，看好 25Q4 银行板块的相对收益。 报告中《保持合理的利率比价关系》，是近年来央行首次详细阐述五组关键利率比价关系，为货币政策 传导和银行定价提出明确指引，其中特别提到"督促银行不发放税后利率低于同期限国债收益率的贷 款，…支持银行稳定净息差，拓宽货币政策逆周期调节空间"。通过维持合理的利率比价关系，有助于 维护净息差稳定。截至 25Q3，上市银行测算净息差环比企稳，主要得益于负债成本较年初大幅改善超 30BP，但资产端仍有下行压力，前三季度资产收益率较年初下降41BP。展望后续，"反内卷"的推进对 贷款的合理定价有积极作用，新发放贷款利率降幅持续收窄，同时25Q4和26Q1为负债集中重定价窗口 期，负债成本改善空间依然较为乐观，均有力支撑息差表现，息差料能延续企稳改善态势。 风险层面强调有序化解中小金融机构风险，中小行兼并重组或将加速推进 报告首次提出"构建覆盖全面的宏观审慎管理体系和系统性金融 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Positive" investment rating for the banking sector, indicating an expectation of relative outperformance compared to market benchmarks [6]. Core Viewpoints - The report highlights a cautious optimism regarding the banking sector's performance in Q4 2025, driven by stabilizing interest margins and improving fundamentals despite external uncertainties [3][4]. - It emphasizes the importance of maintaining a reasonable interest rate spread to support net interest margins, with a focus on effective monetary policy transmission [9][11]. Summary by Sections Investment Recommendations and Targets - The report identifies two main investment lines: 1. High-quality small and medium-sized banks with stable fundamentals, including targets like Chongqing Rural Commercial Bank (601077, Buy), Ningbo Bank (002142, Buy), and Nanjing Bank (601009, Buy) [4]. 2. Large state-owned banks with solid defensive value, such as Industrial and Commercial Bank of China (601398, Not Rated) and Agricultural Bank of China (601288, Not Rated) [4]. Banking Industry Overview - The report discusses the current state of the banking industry, noting a stabilization in interest margins and a cautious approach to monetary policy, with a focus on cross-cycle adjustments to enhance macroeconomic governance [9][11]. - It also mentions the need for a comprehensive macro-prudential management system to address risks in small financial institutions, suggesting that mergers and restructuring may accelerate [11]. Monetary Policy and Financial Conditions - The report indicates that the monetary policy will continue to be moderately accommodative, with a focus on maintaining reasonable growth in financial aggregates and credit [9][10]. - It highlights that the credit growth rate is expected to decline marginally, with a projected loan growth rate of 6.6% in Q3 2025 [9]. Interest Rate Dynamics - The report stresses the importance of maintaining a reasonable interest rate spread, with specific guidelines for banks to avoid issuing loans at rates lower than government bond yields [9][11]. - It notes that as of Q3 2025, the net interest margin for listed banks has stabilized, benefiting from a significant reduction in funding costs [9][11].

11月11日，央行发布《2025年第三季度中国货币政策执行报告》（以下简称《报告》）。其中，专 栏4详细介绍了央行政策利率通过金融体系传导至不同细分市场的利率传导机制。保持合理的利率关 系，正是未来畅通利率传导机制的客观需要，有助于提升货币政策有效性，减少资金空转套利。 《报告》在专栏4中列举了几组重要的利率关系。 二是商业银行资产端和负债端利率的关系。存款利率是银行的主要负债成本率，贷款利率是银行的 主要资产收益率。存贷款利率总体上同向变动，但是受重定价周期差异、银行"内卷式"竞争等因素影 响，贷款利率下降快，存款利率下降慢，会压缩银行净息差，制约银行持续支持实体经济的能力。 中国人民银行也很注重保持合理的利率比价关系。近年来，中国人民银行指导利率自律机制整治违 规手工补息、规范同业存款利率定价、建立存款招投标利率报备机制、在对公存款服务协议中增加"兜 底条款"，督促银行不发放税后利率低于同期限国债收益率的贷款，按照经营成本合理确定贷款利率 等，并开展利率政策执法检查，增强银行资产和负债端利率调整的联动性，支持银行稳定净息差，拓宽 货币政策逆周期调节空间。 三是不同类型资产收益率的关系。贷款和债券均为银行资 ...

Monetary Policy Overview - The central bank's Q3 2025 monetary policy report maintains a "moderately accommodative" stance, addressing current economic challenges while balancing short-term growth and long-term quality development[1] - The report emphasizes "keeping social financing conditions relatively loose" and "strengthening monetary policy execution and transmission," indicating a shift from "incremental acceleration" to "stock quality improvement" in monetary policy focus[1] Financial Indicators - As of September, the total social financing stock grew by 8.7% year-on-year, while M2 increased by 8.4%, with the RMB loan balance reaching 270.4 trillion yuan, aligning with economic growth and price targets[2] - The weighted average interest rate for newly issued loans fell to 3.24% in Q3, with corporate and personal housing loan rates decreasing by 37 and 25 basis points year-on-year, respectively, easing the financing burden on market entities[2] Economic Context - GDP growth for the first three quarters of 2025 was 5.2%, with overall employment stability, although challenges remain in manufacturing and export growth[2] - Core inflation is stabilizing, with expectations for gradual price recovery as consumption policies take effect[2] Policy Insights - The report includes four sections, with the first highlighting that the RMB loan balance is 270 trillion yuan and social financing stock is 437 trillion yuan, indicating a natural decline in financial growth rates as the economy transitions to high-quality development[2] - The second section clarifies the relationship between base money and broader money supply, suggesting a shift from "quantity expansion" to "interest rate transmission" in monetary policy[4] Interest Rate Dynamics - The fourth section discusses the importance of maintaining reasonable interest rate relationships for macroeconomic balance and resource allocation, addressing recent imbalances caused by market behaviors[4] - The central bank is implementing measures to correct interest rate imbalances, enhancing the effectiveness of monetary policy transmission to the real economy[4]

固定收益 | 固定收益点评 债市的两点预期差 证券研究报告 固收点评 1、"适度宽松"再理解 三季度货政报告首先是肯定了国内前三季度取得的经济成效，但也特别提 到了国内经济还需要"加力巩固"，潜在挑战可能来自两个方面：（1）国 内经济增长动能有所放缓，尤其是进入四季度后，经济增长的高基数压力 开始显现；（2）海外环境复杂性和潜在影响不容忽视。 当前正值"十四五"收官与"十五五"蓄势之交，站在经济恢复和中长期 战略的衔接节点，Q3 报告新增"跨周期调节"，与"逆周期调节"并重， 即：政策需要在稳增长与中长期目标之间做好统筹，既要继续通过逆周期 调节巩固当前复苏基础，也要基于跨周期视角进行前瞻布局。 货币政策延续"适度宽松"的总基调，但表述从 Q2 的"落实落细"改为 Q3 的"实施好"，或一定程度肯定了上半年以来货币政策的实施成效。 当前，货币政策在"为"与"不为"之间，有哪些因素是需要平衡的？综 合来看，资金防空转的制约已边际减弱，稳汇率压力也得到明显缓释，货 币政策的重心或逐渐切换至"稳增长"上，意味着总量宽松逐步具备条件。 但宏观叙事的跨周期视角及银行净息差压力或仍是必须面对的现实考量， 即距离宽货币空间 ...

2025.11.13 本文字数：2633，阅读时长大约4分钟 作者 |第一财经 杜川 11月11日，央行发布2025年第三季度中国货币政策执行报告，其中多篇专栏文章均指向央行货币政策框 架的演进方向，并在专栏《保持合理的利率比价关系》中明确，保持合理的利率比价关系是畅通货币政 策传导的需要，因此备受关注。 该专栏重点厘清了五组核心利率比价关系，即央行政策利率和市场利率的关系、商业银行资产端和负债 端利率的关系、不同类型资产收益率的关系、不同期限利率的关系、不同风险利率的关系。 在市场分析看来，这一表述直指当前市场存在的比价失衡问题。比如，部分领域出现市场利率与政策利 率变动不同步、银行存贷利率因"内卷"导致利差承压、同一主体发债与贷款利率差距过大、期限利率曲 线阶段性倒挂，甚至部分企业贷款利率低于同期限国债收益率等违背风险定价原则的现象。 "十五五"规划提出，要构建科学稳健的货币政策体系和覆盖全面的宏观审慎管理体系，畅通货币政策传 导机制。 市场权威专家表示，三季度货币政策报告专栏详细介绍了央行政策利率通过金融体系传导至不同细分市 场的利率传导机制，保持合理的利率关系，正是未来畅通利率传导机制的客观需要，有助 ...

2025.11. 13 本文字数：2633，阅读时长大约4分钟 作者 | 第一财经 杜川 11月11日，央行发布2025年第三季度中国货币政策执行报告，其中多篇专栏文章均指向央行货币政策框架的演进方向，并在专栏《保持合理的利率比价 关系》中明确，保持合理的利率比价关系是畅通货币政策传导的需要，因此备受关注。 该专栏重点厘清了五组核心利率比价关系，即央行政策利率和市场利率的关系、商业银行资产端和负债端利率的关系、不同类型资产收益率的关系、不同 期限利率的关系、不同风险利率的关系。 在市场分析看来，这一表述直指当前市场存在的比价失衡问题。比如，部分领域出现市场利率与政策利率变动不同步、银行存贷利率因"内卷"导致利差承 压、同一主体发债与贷款利率差距过大、期限利率曲线阶段性倒挂，甚至部分企业贷款利率低于同期限国债收益率等违背风险定价原则的现象。 "十五五"规划提出，要构建科学稳健的货币政策体系和覆盖全面的宏观审慎管理体系，畅通货币政策传导机制。 市场权威专家表示，三季度货币政策报告专栏详细介绍了央行政策利率通过金融体系传导至不同细分市场的利率传导机制，保持合理的利率关系，正是未 来畅通利率传导机制的客观需要，有助于 ...

债券研究 债券日报 2025 年 11 月 12 日 华创证券研究所 证 券 研 究 报 告 【债券日报】 重视货币政策传导，平衡利率比价关系 ——2025Q3 货政报告解读 流动性方面，（1）资金空转：2024 年 Q4 以来货政例会一直提及，但货政报告 中的表述变化较大，Q1 未提及、Q2 有强调，此次报告中隐去。但从更广义的 层面，央行沿袭始终全会以来"构建覆盖全面的宏观审慎管理体系"的表态。 （2）资金运行：对于维护货币市场利率平稳运行的展示图依旧为 DR001 加权 利率围绕政策利率波动的状态；明确了买断式及 MLF 上中下旬的操作时间。 证券分析师：周冠南 邮箱：zhouguannan@hcyjs.com 执业编号：S0360517090002 证券分析师：宋琦 电话：010-63214665 邮箱：songqi@hcyjs.com 执业编号：S0360523080002 相关研究报告 《【华创固收】转债市场日度跟踪 20251111》 2025-11-11 《【华创固收】转债市场日度跟踪 20251110》 2025-11-10 《【华创固收】如何看待 PPI 环比转正？——10 月通胀数据解读 ...

保持合理的利率关系，也是央行畅通货币政策传导的重要环节。 11月11日，央行发布2025年第三季度中国货币政策执行报告，其中多篇专栏文章均指向央行货币政策框 架的演进方向，并在专栏《保持合理的利率比价关系》中明确，保持合理的利率比价关系是畅通货币政 策传导的需要，因此备受关注。 该专栏重点厘清了五组核心利率比价关系，即央行政策利率和市场利率的关系、商业银行资产端和负债 端利率的关系、不同类型资产收益率的关系、不同期限利率的关系、不同风险利率的关系。 在市场分析看来，这一表述直指当前市场存在的比价失衡问题。比如，部分领域出现市场利率与政策利 率变动不同步、银行存贷利率因"内卷"导致利差承压、同一主体发债与贷款利率差距过大、期限利率曲 线阶段性倒挂，甚至部分企业贷款利率低于同期限国债收益率等违背风险定价原则的现象。 "十五五"规划提出，要构建科学稳健的货币政策体系和覆盖全面的宏观审慎管理体系，畅通货币政策传 导机制。 市场权威专家表示，三季度货币政策报告专栏详细介绍了央行政策利率通过金融体系传导至不同细分市 场的利率传导机制，保持合理的利率关系，正是未来畅通利率传导机制的客观需要，有助于提升货币政 策有效性，减少 ...

Group 1: Monetary Policy Insights - The central bank emphasizes maintaining relatively loose social financing conditions and improving the execution and transmission of monetary policy[2] - The report highlights the need for counter-cyclical and cross-cyclical adjustments to strengthen economic recovery[3] - The central bank aims to optimize monetary policy intermediate variables and gradually reduce focus on quantitative targets, suggesting that loan growth may be slightly lower than nominal economic growth[4] Group 2: External Economic Factors - The report expresses caution regarding external uncertainties, noting challenges in international economic and trade order, and concerns about the diminishing effects of "export grabbing" and "import grabbing"[3] - High tariffs are expected to increase trade costs and create policy uncertainties that may suppress long-term investment and supply chain decisions, indicating a structural shift in global trade growth trends[3][12] Group 3: Interest Rate Management - The central bank stresses the importance of maintaining reasonable interest rate relationships across various dimensions, transitioning from setting a single price to managing a system[7][18] - The report identifies five key interest rate relationships that are crucial for effective monetary policy transmission, including the relationship between central bank policy rates and market rates[18][20] Group 4: Investment Recommendations - The central bank's commitment to a moderately loose monetary policy is expected to support interest-sensitive assets and sectors backed by clear policy support, such as technology innovation and green industries[21] - The likelihood of significant policy easing measures, such as rate cuts, is low for the remainder of the year, with more substantial easing expected to be deferred until early 2026[21][22] Group 5: Risk Considerations - Potential risks include slower-than-expected economic recovery, unexpected policy changes, and disturbances in the global economy[23]