Group 1 - The June Loan Prime Rate (LPR) remains stable at 3.0% for the 1-year term and 3.5% for the 5-year term, consistent with previous rates [1] - The stability of the LPR aligns with expectations, as the policy has entered an observation period following a 10 basis point decrease in May [1][3] - The LPR is influenced by the 7-day reverse repurchase rate, which has not changed in June, indicating that the pricing basis for LPR remains unchanged [3] Group 2 - Despite a decrease in funding rates, banks face structural pressure on the liability side, limiting their willingness to compress LPR further [3] - The net interest margin of commercial banks has compressed to a historical low of 1.43%, and is expected to narrow further following the May rate cut [3] - Analysts suggest that there may still be room for LPR to decline in the second half of the year due to external uncertainties and the need to stimulate domestic demand [4] Group 3 - The central bank may continue to lower interest rates in the second half of the year, which could lead to a more significant decrease in both terms of LPR [4] - This potential decrease in LPR is seen as a crucial measure to reduce financing costs for the real economy and stimulate internal financing demand [4] - There is a possibility of further regulatory measures to guide down the 5-year LPR, facilitating lower mortgage rates for residents [5]

Core Viewpoint - The chief macro analyst at Dongfang Jincheng, Wang Qing, anticipates that the central bank will continue to implement interest rate cuts in the second half of the year, indicating further downward potential for the Loan Prime Rate (LPR) in 2023 [1] Group 1: Economic Environment - The current external environment remains highly uncertain, and domestic policies aimed at stabilizing growth should not be relaxed [1] - Lowering policy interest rates and guiding the LPR downward will significantly reduce loan rates for businesses and residents, thereby lowering financing costs for the real economy [1] Group 2: Investment and Consumption - The reduction in interest rates is seen as a crucial measure to stimulate investment and consumption, which is essential for economic expansion [1] - This approach will help alleviate the high actual loan rates faced by businesses and residents after accounting for price factors, thereby stimulating endogenous financing demand [1]

Core Viewpoint - The current external environment remains highly uncertain, and domestic growth stabilization policies should not be relaxed yet [1] Group 1: Monetary Policy - It is expected that the central bank will continue to implement interest rate cuts in the second half of the year, with room for two types of LPR to decline within the year [1] - The recent reduction in deposit rates by state-owned banks is anticipated to lead other commercial banks to follow suit, resulting in an overall deposit rate decrease of approximately 0.11 to 0.13 percentage points [1] - This adjustment in deposit rates is expected to offset the impact of the LPR reduction on various loan rates, thereby stabilizing the banks' net interest margin [1]

Group 1 - The six major banks collectively announced a reduction in deposit rates, with cuts ranging from 5 basis points (BP) to 25 BP, while the People's Bank of China (PBOC) lowered the Loan Prime Rate (LPR) by 10 BP for both one-year and five-year terms [1][2] - The reduction in deposit rates is the largest in recent years, with the one-year deposit rate falling below 1% for the first time, potentially leading to a shift of deposits towards non-bank financial institutions [1][6] - According to CICC's static calculations, the impact of the LPR and deposit rate cuts on banks' net interest margin (NIM), revenue, and profit is an increase of 7 BP, 3 BP, and 6 BP respectively, indicating a generally positive effect on banks [2][3] Group 2 - The adjusted interest rates for fixed-term deposits are now 0.95% for one year, 1.05% for two years, 1.25% for three years, and 1.3% for five years, with significant reductions in the longer-term rates [2] - The average reduction in deposit rates is approximately 16 BP, which is greater than the LPR cut, reflecting a protective measure for banks' interest margins [2][3] - The ongoing low interest rate environment is expected to alleviate debt burdens for enterprises and households, stimulate economic activity, and stabilize banks' asset quality, despite causing a significant impact on listed banks' operating income [2][4] Group 3 - The net interest margin for listed banks is projected to decline by 2.20% year-on-year in 2024, marking the second consecutive year of decline, with the average NIM expected to be 1.52% [4][5] - The first quarter of 2025 saw a further decrease in the net interest margin to 1.43%, which is significantly below the 1.8% warning level [4][5] - The trend of funds flowing from banks to non-bank financial institutions is exacerbated by the reduction in deposit rates, with a notable increase in bank liabilities to other financial companies [6]

智通财经C50风向指数调查："双降"后新一轮存款利率下调预期升温 市场预计PSL或再次重启 智通财经5月9日电，新一期智通财经"C50风向指数"结果显示，多家市场机构预计，降准、降息落地 后，货币政策将呈现持续宽松的特征，资金利率中枢有望进一步下行。在20家参与调查的市场机构中， 19家认为二季度货币政策走向实质性宽松，16家预计2025年货币政策维持宽松基调。17家市场机构料下 调政策利率10BP后，1年期和5年期LPR也将同步下行10BP，新一轮存款利率调降或将开启。此外，为 配合政策性金融工具协同发力，抵押补充贷款（PSL）可能再次重启。（智通财经记者 夏淑媛） ...