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固收专题:质押券解冻后
Minsheng Securities· 2025-07-24 06:05
固收专题 质押券解冻后 2025 年 07 月 24 日 ➢ 7 月 18 日央行官网发布的《中国人民银行关于修改和废止部分规章的决定 (征求意见稿)》中提到"为便于公开市场买卖国债等货币政策操作和促进债券 市场高水平对外开放,取消对债券回购的质押券进行冻结的规定",引起市场关 注。参考海外经验,"取消对债券回购的质押券进行冻结"的规定或意味着未来银 行间市场债券回购将向买断式回购转换,未来我国债券回购可能会以买断式为核 心。其实央行早在 2004 年就推出了买断式逆回购,但是当时制度设计方面尚不 成熟,导致买断式回购成交情况很低。截至 2025 年 6 月底,银行间债券市场买 断式回购的余额为 2034 亿元,不到质押式回购余额的 1%。买断式回购交易中 债券押品的所有权发生转移,既有融资功能也有融券功能,资金融出方(逆回购 方)在回购期内操作灵活度更大,包括在资金融出方(逆回购方)债券储备不足 时利用抵押品进行再融资、卖出或做空抵押品债券、支持自身其他交易(如央行 可用于操作证券、基金、保险公司互换便利)等。 ➢ 买断式回购具有配套设施和经验支撑:①买断式回购的期限从"最长不得超 过 91 天"延长至"最 ...
事件点评:央行取消质押券冻结,或并非即将国债买卖
KAIYUAN SECURITIES· 2025-07-20 04:12
Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No industry investment rating information is provided in the content. 2. Core Viewpoints - The central bank's move to cancel the freeze on pledged bonds is mainly to enhance market liquidity, and domestic bond repurchase may shift from pledge - style to buy - sell - back style similar to the central bank's. The change from frozen pledged bonds to transferable and tradable ones can significantly boost bond liquidity, especially considering that the average daily trading volume of pledged repurchase in China in 2025 is 5 - 6 trillion yuan [6]. - Canceling the freeze on pledged bonds can facilitate the central bank's treasury bond trading operations and promote the high - level opening - up of the bond market [7]. - The pattern of the current bond yield increase may shift from the previous "central bank tightens funds → bond yield increases" to "stock market rises → bond yield increases". If the economy does not decline significantly in the second half of the year, funds in the bond market may gradually flow out [10]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Event Background - On July 18, 2025, the People's Bank of China issued a notice on soliciting public opinions on the "Decision of the People's Bank of China on Amending Some Regulations (Draft for Comment)", which includes the provision of "canceling the regulation on freezing the pledged bonds for bond repurchase" [4]. - On July 8, 2025, Jiang Huifen, Deputy Director of the Financial Market Department of the People's Bank of China, stated at the Bond Connect Anniversary Forum 2025 that it supports the Hong Kong CMU to cancel the freeze on repurchase pledged bonds and further revitalize the pledged bonds, referring to the international common practice of bond repurchase [5]. International Practice of Bond Repurchase - International bond repurchase is centered around buy - sell - back. Through legal mechanisms and market tools, non - frozen management of pledged bonds is achieved, with the core features of ownership transfer and maximum liquidity [5]. Purposes of Canceling Pledged Bond Freeze - **Enhancing liquidity**: After the central bank's modification, the shift from pledge - style repurchase to buy - sell - back means that pledged bonds change from a frozen state to a temporarily transferable and tradable state, which can greatly enhance bond liquidity [6]. - **Facilitating treasury bond trading**: Canceling the freeze on pledged bonds can increase the number of available bonds in the market and expand the scope of the central bank's bond - buying and selling operations [7]. - **Promoting opening - up**: It is in line with international practices, which helps promote the high - level opening - up of the bond market [7]. Misunderstandings of Canceling Pledged Bond Freeze - **Misunderstanding 1**: It is a wrong view that the reverse repurchase party can re - pledge or replace the pledged bonds. According to relevant regulations, during the repurchase period, both parties cannot use the pledged bonds. Allowing re - pledging may turn bond repurchase into credit repurchase and increase financial risks. Canceling the freeze actually increases the rights of the reverse repurchase party [8]. - **Misunderstanding 2**: There is no causal relationship between canceling the freeze on pledged bonds and the central bank's imminent treasury bond trading. Since large banks have been continuously buying bonds since May 12, 2025, the central bank's restart of bond - buying is not restricted by the issue of pledged bonds. Canceling the freeze is mainly to enhance the liquidity of existing bonds in the long - and medium - term [9]. Stock - Bond Switch under Economic Expectation Revision - The current pattern of bond yield increase may shift, and if the economy does not decline significantly in the second half of the year, funds in the bond market may gradually flow out. The rhythm may be similar to that in 2009 and 2020, with the stock market rising first, followed by a lagging increase in bond yields and finally an increase in the capital interest rate [10].