证券研究报告 2025 年 09 月 04 日 湘财证券研究所 策略研究 策略点评 科技板块调整，红利有望转强 ——2025.09 月 2-4 日市场点评 据 Wind 数据，在 9 月 2-4 日大盘下跌的大环境下，红利板块整体保持稳定。 红利指数 9 月 4 日上涨了 0.55%，是大盘能够在大幅下跌后逐步企稳的重 要支撑力量。 从二级行业 9 月 2-4 日涨幅居前的行业来看，银行是红利板块上涨的主要 力量。而银行板块在 7 月中旬以来即开始调整，目前整体调整相对充分； 且银行板块是我国长期资金（尤其是保险资金）入市的主要抓手，在目前 市场回调过程，发挥稳定器作用，符合市场预期。 投资建议 目前 A 股市场处于新"国九条"行情+类"四万亿"投资的重叠趋势中， 在稳住股市的政策指导下，2025 年 A 股市场大概率以"慢牛"方式运行。 中维度来看（季度），2025 年下半年由于中美关税再次获得 90 天缓冲期， 且我国 7 月出口数据保持较强韧性，而近期海外市场对美国对等关税的反 应也相对温和，总体保持强势。未来对市场行情影响较大的将更多来自于 正在推进的"十五五"规划，方向主要在：科技、绿色（环保）、服 ...

一、ETF行业快讯 1.三大指数集体上涨，多只基建ETF上涨 今日，三大指数集体上涨，上证综指上涨0.62%，深证成指上涨0.84%，创业板指上涨0.61%。多只建筑 装饰板块ETF上涨，其中，基建ETF（516950.SH）上涨6.99%，基建ETF（159619.SZ）上涨6.44%，基 建50ETF（516970.SH）上涨5.56%。计算机板块多只ETF下跌，云50ETF（560660.SH）下跌1.41%，云 计算ETF华泰柏瑞（159738.SZ）下跌1.32%，大数据ETF（159739.SZ）下跌1.30%。 据中国证券报，今年二季度，中央汇金（中央汇金投资有限责任公司与其全资子公司中央汇金资产管理 有限责任公司）充分发挥类"平准基金"作用。据不完全统计，沪深300ETF、上证50ETF、中证 500ETF、中证1000ETF等10只龙头产品均被其大举增持，按照区间成交价格估算，二季度中央汇金增 持超2000亿元。 4月7日至4月8日，上述10只龙头宽基ETF合计净流入超1400亿元。中央汇金在4月8日明确表示，作为资 本市场上的"国家队"，发挥着类"平准基金"作用，未来会继续发挥好资本市场" ...

Group 1 - The People's Bank of China announced a package of monetary policy measures, including a 0.5% reduction in the reserve requirement ratio, expected to provide approximately 1 trillion yuan in long-term liquidity [1][4] - A 0.1% decrease in the policy interest rate, lowering the 7-day reverse repurchase rate from 1.5% to 1.4%, is anticipated to lead to a similar decline in the Loan Prime Rate (LPR) [4] - The current A-share market is experiencing a combination of the new "Guo Jiu Tiao" policies and a "4 trillion" investment trend, with expectations for a continued "slow bull" market through 2025 [4] Group 2 - Historical data shows that A-share indices have generally increased following previous reserve requirement reductions since 2018, with significant gains observed after the two reductions in 2024 [4] - The financial sector, particularly large financial institutions, is expected to benefit directly from the liquidity easing, as evidenced by recent stock price increases in banks, securities, and insurance companies [4][6] - For the banking sector, the reserve requirement cut is expected to lower funding costs and alleviate pressure on net interest margins, while also stimulating corporate credit demand [6] - The securities industry is projected to see a recovery in profitability in 2025 due to sustained market liquidity, with a focus on brokers benefiting from increased investor participation and comprehensive leading brokers expected to benefit from supply-side reforms and potential mergers [6]