宏观经济周报 2025 年第 35 周 2025 年 8 月 25 日 徐婕，博士 (852) 2683 3777 jessica.xu@icbci.icbc.com.cn 周烨 (852) 2683 3232 dorothy.zhou@icbci.icbc.com.cn 一、中国宏观 高频：本周 ICHI 综合景气指数进一步扩张，显示中国经济动能持续增强，修复 态势从初步企稳走向更具广度和深度的协调扩张。四大分项指标全线走强，构 成经济运行的多重支撑。其中，消费景气指数显著上行，重回扩张区间并创近 一个月来新高，反映出居民消费信心加快恢复，服务类消费表现尤为亮眼。投 资景气指数进一步提升，政策驱动下的基建和制造业投资持续扩张。生产景气 指数显著改善，产能利用率大幅抬升，供给端延续良好韧性，成为当前经济增 长的重要引擎。出口景气指数同步回升，在外部需求整体偏弱的背景下展现出 较强适应能力和结构优势。总体而言，本周经济运行从边际修复走向实质扩 张，展现出消费、投资、生产与出口协同发力的积极格局，政策效应持续释 放，经济增长基础进一步夯实。 2025 年 7 月中国经济运行保持了稳中有进的发展态势。内需稳步恢复， ...

智通财经APP获悉，澳门统计暨普查局资料显示，2025年第2季零售业销售额为159.7亿元(澳门元，下 同)，按年下跌1.4%，跌幅明显较2025年第1季(-15.0%)收窄。主要零售行业中，第2季成人服装和百货的 销售额回升，分别录得2.7%及1.9%的按年增幅，而皮具(-4.4%)和化妆品及卫生用品(-3.6%)的减幅亦较 首季显著放缓。扣除价格因素影响的销货量指数方面，第2季同比下跌2.4%，当中成人服装(+7.3%)、百 货(+5.7%)和化妆品及卫生用品(+0.2%)录得增长，通讯设备(-4.8%)、超级市场(-2.4%)和皮具(-0.2%)则按 年下跌。 综合零售商户意见，预计今年第3季货物销售量与去年同季相若的商户有54.7%，认为销售量将会减少 的有40.0%，预期增加的占5.3%。与此同时，有76.0%商户预测第3季销售价格将维持在去年同期水平， 认为价格会下跌的占18.1%，而预计上升的占5.9%。 今年上半年零售业销售额为335.5亿元，按年减少9.0%。皮具和化妆品及卫生用品的销售额分别下跌 15.8%及14.3%，药房和汽车则上升4.5%及3.6%。上半年销货量平均指数同比下跌11. ...

水皮杂谈 一家之言 兼听则明 偏听则暗 盈亏同源 盘面消息 A股三大指数今日涨跌不一，沪指再创十年新高。截止收盘，沪指涨0.13%，收报3771.10 点；深证成指跌0.06%，收报11919.76点；创业板指跌0.47%，收报2595.47点。 沪深两 市成交额达到24241亿，较昨日小幅放量158亿。 小水看盘 行情走到了十字路口 。 是继续概念股的击鼓传花，还是回归价值股的水涨船高，是市场必须做出的选择。今天的市场 表现表明，大部分投资人还是相对理性的，没有被想象冲昏头脑。 YYDS是今天大盘的主要支 撑，而半导体、电机、通讯设备、电池等板块开始降温。液冷、P EE K材料以及AI概念跌幅 比较明显。 这一轮行情有两条主线，一个是大金融，另一个是科技创新。但最近一个月，科技创新的炒作 无疑已开始白热化，泡沫化严重。几乎所有概念都被轮炒了一遍，再炒下去 会 有崩盘的危 险。 美股的半导体和芯片调整走势已持续几天，尤其是今天凌晨结束的纳斯达克，继续出现杀跌走 势。虽然跌幅不是特别大，但盘中部分个股杀跌力度相当大。比如英伟达一度大跌 3.87%， 尽管后市回升势头强劲，最终也没有飘红；英特尔更是大跌7%左右； ...

Core Viewpoint - Recently, Haixing Pengjun Communication Equipment Co., Ltd. was established with a registered capital of 500,000 RMB, indicating a new player in the communication equipment sector [1] Company Summary - The legal representative of the newly established company is Wang Hui [1] - The company has a registered capital of 500,000 RMB [1] - The business scope includes general projects such as installation services for ordinary machinery, sales of communication equipment, installation services for household appliances, repair of communication equipment, sales of optical communication equipment, sales of mobile communication equipment, leasing of machinery and equipment, and sales of electronic products [1] - The company is also involved in labor services (excluding labor dispatch), wholesale of computer software and hardware, and auxiliary equipment [1] Industry Summary - The company is permitted to engage in electrical installation services, internet information services, and installation, maintenance, and testing of power facilities [1] - The company can conduct specialized construction operations, which require approval from relevant departments before commencement [1]

Group 1 - A-shares indices collectively rose, with the Shanghai Composite Index breaking its previous high of 3674.4 points set on October 8, 2024, marking the highest level since December 13, 2021, with a year-to-date increase of over 9% [2] - As of August 12, the margin trading balance in A-shares returned to 2 trillion yuan, with a reported balance of 20,345.33 billion yuan, an increase of 833.5 million yuan from the previous trading day [2] - The sectors leading the gains included shipbuilding, electronic chemicals, aerospace, communication equipment, and non-ferrous metals, while medical devices, port shipping, coal, and energy metals saw declines [2] Group 2 - Zhejiang Merchants Securities indicated that the "924" market trend began on August 11, establishing a long-term market bottom, with expectations for a strong market post-April 7, 2025, potentially leading to the fifth bull market in A-share history [3] - The three core supporting factors for the recent market rise—policy bottom-line thinking, emergence of new growth drivers, and influx of incremental funds—remain unchanged, suggesting potential catalysts for market confidence [3] - China Merchants Securities noted that the semi-annual reports are expected to confirm the improvement in overall free cash flow for listed companies, reinforcing the logic for re-evaluating A-shares [3]

Group 1: Policy Effectiveness - The current recycling policy has significantly boosted sales of key consumer goods, particularly home appliances and communication devices, leading to a total sales increase of 1.1 trillion yuan by May 2025[6] - Home appliance consumption grew by 30.7% in the first half of 2025, contributing 25.1% to overall consumption growth, while communication devices increased by 24.1%, contributing 16.6%[6] - The policy has positively impacted the profitability of home appliance companies, with revenue growth rates for major firms like Midea and Haier reaching 13.9% and 27.36% respectively in Q1 2025[20] Group 2: Challenges and Issues - Some regions have experienced a disruption in subsidy funding, affecting market expectations and policy effectiveness, with reports of funding shortages since May 2025[32] - The policy has led to a "Matthew effect," concentrating tax revenues in manufacturing strong provinces, which diminishes the incentive for less developed regions to implement the policy[35] - The policy is facing diminishing returns after over a year of implementation, raising concerns about a potential "policy cliff" once the subsidies are withdrawn[41] Group 3: Recommendations - It is recommended to accelerate the disbursement and allocation of subsidy funds to stabilize market expectations and prevent funding interruptions[54] - Expanding the range of subsidized products and extending the subsidy duration are suggested to mitigate the risk of a "policy cliff" and maintain consumer demand[54] - The government should consider easing participation thresholds for small and medium enterprises to ensure broader access to the benefits of the policy[59]

Core Viewpoint - Shanghai has continuously optimized its business environment, achieving significant recognition in global rankings and providing a model for other regions in China [1] Group 1: Business Environment Optimization - Shanghai has emphasized the importance of optimizing the business environment for eight consecutive years, leading to the development of multiple action plans [1] - The city has achieved 22 global best results in the World Bank's survey of Chinese enterprises, showcasing its leadership in business environment optimization [1] - The first China (Shanghai) Innovation Practice Case Release Conference highlighted ten exemplary innovative practices from various government levels, reflecting the city's commitment to improving the business environment [1] Group 2: Innovative Practices - The "Blue-Green Space" initiative in Baoshan's Miaohang Town has transformed environmental dead zones into attractive spaces, increasing the occupancy rate of nearby enterprises by 8% [2] - The "Shanghai Silicon Alley" project in Huayang Road has created low-cost innovation spaces, releasing approximately 100,000 square meters for tech startups [2] - The integration of high-density innovation elements in various urban spaces is crucial for fostering a vibrant ecosystem that stimulates creativity [2] Group 3: Financial Support for Enterprises - Shanghai's financial ecosystem supports both rapidly growing innovative companies and nascent small businesses through a comprehensive financial drip irrigation system [4] - The introduction of a knowledge property ABS model in Xuhui District has provided a more efficient financing method for tech companies, with a recent issuance of 59 million yuan [5] - The "Hongkou Quick Loan" initiative has streamlined the financing process for enterprises, allowing for rapid loan approvals through a collaborative model [5] Group 4: Regulatory Optimization - Shanghai has implemented reforms to reduce redundant inspections and improve regulatory efficiency, including the use of a unified inspection code [6] - The introduction of a risk classification model in Jinshan District has allowed for tailored regulatory approaches based on the risk level of enterprises [7] - The proactive service model in various districts aims to minimize disruptions to businesses while ensuring effective oversight [7] Group 5: Youth Entrepreneurship Support - Initiatives like the "Zero-Work Station" in Xuhui District have facilitated job placements for youth, with over 1,600 job seekers benefiting from the program [8] - The "You 'Jia' Inn" project in Jiading District provides transitional accommodation for young job seekers, supporting their integration into the workforce [8] - The emphasis on grassroots efforts to enhance the business environment reflects a broader commitment to fostering entrepreneurship among the youth [8]

Core Viewpoint - 瑞玛精密 has secured a significant project as a designated supplier for a domestic automaker's new energy vehicle platform, with an expected sales revenue of approximately 336 million yuan, which is anticipated to positively impact the company's future operating performance [1][2]. Group 1: Project Announcement - 瑞玛精密's subsidiary, Pride Automotive Technology (Suzhou) Co., Ltd., has been appointed as the designated supplier for air spring assembly products for a new energy vehicle platform, with a project lifecycle of 7 years and total expected sales of about 336 million yuan [2]. - The project signifies recognition of Pride (Suzhou)'s technical development capabilities and product quality in the automotive air suspension system sector [2]. Group 2: Financial Performance - For the first half of 2025, 瑞玛精密 expects a net profit attributable to shareholders of 15.56 million to 21.05 million yuan, representing a year-on-year growth of 123.64% to 202.57% [5]. - The company reported a significant increase in non-net profit, projected to be between 12.87 million and 17.41 million yuan, reflecting a growth of 281.88% to 416.65% compared to the previous year [5]. Group 3: Business Expansion and R&D - 瑞玛精密 has been actively expanding its production capacity to meet growing market demand, with plans to raise up to 632 million yuan through a targeted stock issuance to fund projects related to air suspension systems and seat systems [3]. - The company has consistently increased its R&D investment, with expenditures rising from 58.75 million yuan in 2022 to 25.81 million yuan in the first quarter of 2025, maintaining a positive year-on-year growth trend [5]. Group 4: Strategic Acquisitions and International Expansion - 瑞玛精密 has strengthened its competitive position through acquisitions, including the purchase of Guangzhou Xinzhen Automotive Parts Co., Ltd. for approximately 197 million yuan, enhancing its seat comfort system business [6]. - The company is also expanding internationally, having signed a land purchase agreement in Mexico for approximately 22.18 million yuan to bolster its production base [6].

Group 1 - China's GDP growth for the first half of 2025 reached 5.3%, an increase of 0.3 percentage points compared to the same period in 2024 [2] - The retail sales of consumer goods in China grew by 5.0% year-on-year, with online retail sales increasing by 8.5% [2] - The contribution of final consumption expenditure to economic growth exceeded 52% in the second quarter, indicating strong consumer demand [2][3] Group 2 - Foreign institutions, including Citibank and Goldman Sachs, have raised their forecasts for China's economic growth in 2025, reflecting sustained economic momentum [3] - The manufacturing Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) rose by 0.2 percentage points in June, indicating a recovery in manufacturing activity [3] - Despite external uncertainties, the Chinese economy is expected to maintain stable growth in the second half of the year, supported by structural adjustments and high-quality development practices [4]

Group 1: Economic Outlook - The resilience of the Chinese economy is highlighted as a key theme, with foreign institutions like Barclays and Goldman Sachs noting that consumption and export performance continue to exceed expectations, driven by policy stimulus effects [1][2] - Goldman Sachs projects China's GDP growth rate for the first half of the year to reach 5.2%, indicating potential for further upward movement [2] - Barclays attributes the strong performance in consumption to the upgraded "trade-in" subsidy policy, which has significantly boosted sales in categories such as home appliances and furniture [2] Group 2: Export and Consumption Trends - Exports have shown strong performance, with many Chinese exporters shifting focus to markets outside the U.S., particularly in Europe and ASEAN countries, which is a key structural factor supporting export resilience [2] - The government is expected to intensify efforts to promote consumption, potentially expanding the coverage of the trade-in policy and extending subsidies to more service sectors [2] Group 3: Technology Sector Potential - The global market environment is seen as providing opportunities for investors to diversify their portfolios, with Chinese stocks emerging as a significant choice [3] - UBS forecasts a 6% year-on-year growth in earnings per share for the constituents of the CSI 300 index in 2025, indicating positive earnings momentum [3] - Foreign institutions view China's technological innovation as a strong attraction for assets, with Fidelity noting that breakthroughs in AI could support the stock market and enhance overall emerging market performance [3] Group 4: Structural Changes in A-Share Valuation - Multiple factors are expected to drive a structural revaluation of A-shares, including further macro policy easing, sustained inflows of medium to long-term capital, and comprehensive structural reforms [4] - These factors are anticipated to enhance the attractiveness of investing in China and reduce the valuation discount of A-shares [4] Group 5: High Dividend Companies - High dividend companies are gaining attention from foreign institutions, with Goldman Sachs indicating that companies prioritizing shareholder returns are favored by investors [5] - Goldman Sachs projects that total cash returns to shareholders from Chinese listed companies will reach 3 trillion yuan and 600 billion yuan in dividends and buybacks, respectively, in 2025, representing year-on-year growth of 10% and 35% [5] - Quality companies characterized by high return on equity, low leverage, and stable earnings are seen as more resilient during market volatility [5]