以下文章来源于朋克周 ，作者朋克周 朋克周 . 神行神的意志，我布我的大局 本文来自微信公众号： 朋克周 ，作者：朋克周，题图来自：AI生成 AI的尽头不是智能，是物理。是热力学，是焦耳定律，是变压器容量。当奥特曼公开承认AGI最大的 瓶颈是"能源"时，当马斯克将算力竞争比作"军备竞赛"并指出"电力是明年的短缺项"时，第一重叙事 中那个由纯粹信息构成的"无限世界"开始崩塌了。 我们必须清醒地认识到："算力"正在从一种"资产"迅速异化为一种"负债"。 每一块被点亮的H100，都是一个永不餍足的"电能吞噬单元"。当万亿参数的模型在云端"思考"时， 物理世界的"熔炉"正在熊熊燃烧。 这场游戏的真正入场券，从来不是你拥有多少GPU。而是，你能为这些GPU"点亮"多少"瓦特"？ 欢迎来到"新瓦特时代"。在这个时代，科技巨头、算力主权、乃至国家意志，都将跪倒在一个更古老 的权力面前。一个"旧世界"的幽灵正在回归，它将成为智能时代最终的仲裁者。 我们称之为："瓦特央行"。 "数字熔炉"的诞生 我们必须重构对"数据中心"的认知。 我们正处在一个被双重叙事撕裂的时代。 第一重叙事，是关于"智能"的无限飞升。我们欢呼GPT-5的 ...

Group 1 - The A-share market has returned to 4000 points, with a rotation of market hotspots, particularly in the new energy sector, including energy storage, hydrogen energy, electricity, and charging piles [1] - Several stocks in the electric power and grid sector have seen significant gains, with companies like Hailu Heavy Industry and Moen Electric achieving consecutive trading limits [1] - The global AI wave is highlighting the urgent issue of power shortages, as tech leaders warn that electricity is becoming a critical constraint for AI development [2][3] Group 2 - Major investments in AI infrastructure are being made by tech giants in North America, driven by the ongoing electricity shortage [5] - Collaborations such as the $80 billion partnership between the U.S. and Westinghouse for nuclear reactors, and Google's construction of a 50 MW nuclear power plant, indicate a strong push towards enhancing power supply for data centers [6] - The aging U.S. power grid infrastructure requires significant upgrades, with 30% of power lines and transformers needing replacement in the next decade [7] Group 3 - Goldman Sachs reports that electricity supply is a major obstacle to AI development, predicting a 50-fold increase in power consumption by AI servers by 2027 compared to five years ago [8] - The International Energy Agency forecasts that global annual investment in power grids will rise to $500 billion by 2030, with a compound annual growth rate of 12.6% [8] - UBS anticipates a 10-year power supercycle in China, with electricity demand growth expected to double from previous estimates, driven by new energy vehicles and data centers [8] Group 4 - Domestic companies are expected to benefit from increased orders and export demands, with significant growth in transformer and switch exports reported [9] - CITIC Securities highlights a structural demand in the power transmission and transformation equipment sector, indicating a potential reversal in market conditions for high-voltage and smart grid segments [10]

Core Viewpoint - The article highlights a significant surge in the electric equipment sector, driven by the increasing demand for electricity to support AI infrastructure, with several stocks experiencing substantial gains [2][3]. Group 1: Electric Equipment Sector Performance - Electric equipment stocks, including companies like Shuangjie Electric and TBEA, saw collective surges, with many stocks containing the character "电" (electric) leading the gains [2]. - Specific stock performance includes N Xingbei with a 172.60% increase, and other notable mentions like Canchuang and Yichuang Electric with increases of 29.96% and 20.79% respectively [3]. Group 2: AI and Electricity Demand - Microsoft CEO Nadella and OpenAI CEO Altman indicated that the AI industry faces a power shortage rather than an excess of computing power, emphasizing the need for infrastructure close to power sources [4]. - The U.S. Department of Energy warned that if power suppliers cannot increase generation during peak demand, power outages could double in the next five years [4]. Group 3: Future Electricity Consumption Trends - The EIA predicts that U.S. electricity consumption will reach historical highs in 2025 and 2026, primarily driven by AI and data center expansions [4]. - Goldman Sachs forecasts that AI data centers will increase global electricity demand by 175% by 2030 compared to 2023 [4]. Group 4: Impact on Electricity Pricing - The imbalance between electricity supply and demand may lead to higher electricity prices, with reports indicating that U.S. power suppliers are seeking significant rate increases, totaling $29 billion in rate hikes approved for 2025 [4][5]. Group 5: Equipment Replacement and New Technologies - The U.S. is entering a "New Watt Era," with a significant portion of electrical grid equipment needing replacement, including 30% of power lines and transformers over the next decade [5]. - Companies like Eaton and Hitachi are experiencing growth in orders, particularly in the electrification sector, with Eaton reporting a 55% year-on-year increase in data center orders [5]. Group 6: Emerging Energy Solutions - New energy technologies such as fuel cells, solar storage, and nuclear power are expected to fill the electricity gap for data centers, with SOFCs projected to have an annual installation capacity of 0.5-1.25 GW in North America from 2026 to 2030 [6]. - Nuclear power is gaining attention from tech giants, with significant investments planned, including a $200 billion commitment in the U.S. for nuclear projects [6]. Group 7: Long-term Energy Strategy - Haitong Securities predicts that the AI narrative will accelerate U.S. electricity system construction, leading to a delay in coal power retirement and an increase in solar storage and SOFCs, with a long-term focus on nuclear power [7].