Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. Core Views of the Report - AI generalization has entered a large-scale application period, leading to an exponential increase in computing power demand across various industries. The US is facing a power crisis, and China is likely to experience a power shortage in 1 - 2 years. China will win the Sino-US AI game, and the semiconductor equipment and energy storage industries will be highly prosperous. Silver is a commodity that benefits from both endless computing power and endless electricity. The stock market style is shifting, and the CSI 300 Index is well-balanced. Gold will soar due to the Fed's policy shift, and the demand for commodities will decline. The RMB exchange rate is expected to strengthen [1][2][3]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Economic Cycles - **Kitchin Cycle**: China's current Kitchin cycle is expected to reach its peak in Q4 2025, while the US will reach its peak in Q1 2026 [6]. - **Juglar Cycle**: China's Juglar cycle is currently in an upward phase and is expected to peak in early 2027 [7]. - **Kuznets Cycle**: China's current Kuznets cycle is expected to bottom out around 2030 [8]. - **Kondratieff Cycle**: The current Kondratieff depression started in 2020 due to the COVID-19 impact and is expected to end around 2030, followed by a 10-year recovery period. China is the center of this technological innovation cycle, with AI being the most significant innovation [9]. AI Computing Power Demand - The implementation of the "AI +" action indicates China's full transition to an AI economy. The demand for computing power is growing exponentially, with token usage expected to increase by about 30 times in a year, 900 times in two years, and 27,000 times in three years. Tech giants are making substantial investments in computing power infrastructure, and global AI data center and chip investment is expected to reach $2.9 trillion by 2028 [10][11][14]. Power Demand and Crisis - The exponential growth in computing power demand leads to an exponential increase in power demand, intensifying the Sino-US power competition. The US is facing a power crisis as its aging power grid struggles to meet the growing demand. China is likely to experience a power shortage in 1 - 2 years despite its efforts to expand new energy power generation [15][16][23]. Semiconductor Equipment Industry - Huawei's AI chip computing power supernodes lead the industry, indicating China's full autonomy in the chip industry chain. The surging demand for computing power will drive the semiconductor equipment industry to remain highly prosperous, and related ETFs are expected to perform well [24][25][28]. Energy Storage and Photovoltaic Industries - China's strong power construction mobilization ability ensures its victory in the Sino-US AI game. The energy storage industry is highly prosperous due to the increasing power demand, and the photovoltaic industry is expected to recover in 2026 [33][36]. Silver - Silver benefits from both endless computing power and endless electricity. The demand for silver is expected to surge, widening the supply-demand gap and leading to a shortage of physical silver [37]. Stock Market - The stock market style is shifting, and the CSI 300 Index is well-balanced with limited downside and significant upside potential. The CSI 500 and CSI 300 indices have reached new highs, and the Sci-Tech Innovation 50 Index and ChiNext Index are expected to continue rising. A large amount of domestic and foreign capital is flowing into the A-share market [44][46][47]. Gold - The Fed's policy shift towards full employment and tolerance of inflation, combined with the potential for negative real interest rates in the US, will drive gold prices higher [48][49]. Commodities - Due to the anti-involution in the mid - and downstream industries, the demand for upstream resource commodities is weakening. However, copper prices may strengthen temporarily, and lithium carbonate may enter a new bull market in H2 2026 [50][51][52]. Bonds - As the stock market rises, bond funds are facing large-scale redemptions, and the bond market is becoming a source of funds for the stock market. The real interest rate is trending towards negative values [52]. Foreign Exchange - China is expected to achieve a double surplus in trade and capital, and the offshore RMB exchange rate is likely to enter the 6 - level by the end of the year [53][55][56]. October Outlook for Major Asset Classes - **Equity Assets**: The stock market's wealth effect is attracting savings from the household sector, and overseas funds are flowing into Chinese assets. The semiconductor equipment index and battery index are expected to remain highly prosperous [3][56]. - **Gold and Silver**: Gold will soar due to the Fed's policy shift, and silver may face severe supply shortages [3][56]. - **Commodities**: The demand for upstream resource commodities is weakening [3][56]. - **Bond Assets**: The bond market is becoming a source of funds for the stock market as the real interest rate turns negative [3][56]. - **Foreign Exchange Assets**: The offshore RMB exchange rate is expected to strengthen and enter the 6 - level by the end of the year [3][56].

Investment Rating - The industry rating is "Outperform the Market" [7][16] Core Insights - Oklo, a key player in the Small Modular Reactor (SMR) sector, saw a significant stock increase of 63.5% over the week, driven by a surge in investment interest in SMR technology [3][4] - The demand for energy is expected to rise dramatically, with projections indicating that by 2035, the total computing power in society may increase by 100,000 times, leading to a substantial rise in electricity consumption from data centers [4] - SMRs are characterized by their inherent safety, lower investment requirements, rapid returns, flexible deployment, and wide application scenarios, making them a promising energy solution for the growing needs of data centers and AI [5] Summary by Sections Investment Opportunities - Companies to watch include: 1. Jingye Intelligent: Collaborating with Zhejiang University on micro-reactor/SMR technology, showing significant growth potential in the context of global AI demand and energy transition [5] 2. Jiadian Co.: Leading in the nuclear power sector with its helium fan as the only power device for the fourth-generation high-temperature gas-cooled reactor [5] 3. Guoguang Electric: Key components for the ITER project [5] 4. Lanshi Heavy Industry: Covers upstream nuclear fuel systems, midstream nuclear power plant equipment, and downstream spent fuel processing [5] 5. Kexin Electromechanical: Producing high-temperature gas-cooled reactor products and replacing imports with new fuel transport containers [5] 6. Hailu Heavy Industry: Services for various reactor types including third and fourth generation reactors [5] 7. Jiangsu Shentong: Secured over 90% of orders for nuclear-grade valves in new nuclear power projects [5]

Core Insights - The article emphasizes the importance of computing power as a core competitive element in regional economic development, particularly in the context of the "East Data West Computing" initiative and the implementation of "AI+" actions [1] - Jinan High-tech Zone is undergoing its third entrepreneurial phase aimed at leading regional development by building a comprehensive computing power ecosystem [1][4] Group 1: Power Infrastructure - The demand for reliable electricity for AI computing centers and data centers is surging, leading to structural transformation and technological upgrades in China's power industry [2] - Companies like Hongsheng Huayuan and Huaming Electric Equipment are capitalizing on opportunities in the ultra-high voltage and renewable energy sectors, with Hongsheng's net profit increasing by 96.3% year-on-year in the first half of 2025 [2] - Huaming's export revenue from power equipment grew by 45.21% year-on-year, with indirect exports increasing by 84.03% [2] Group 2: Software and Services - Companies in Jinan High-tech Zone are integrating AI and low-code technologies to enhance the intelligence of power systems, with Jicheng Electronics reporting a 36.26% year-on-year increase in revenue from its energy digitalization business [3] - Shandong Shanda Electric Technology successfully listed on the Growth Enterprise Market, filling a critical gap in the capital market for intelligent operation and new energy consumption [3] Group 3: Computing Power Ecosystem - Jinan High-tech Zone is recognized for producing half of the global AI servers, with Inspur leading the charge in transitioning from hardware manufacturing to intelligent computing services [4][5] - The establishment of the "Meta Brain Computing Factory" by Inspur demonstrates rapid construction and energy-efficient standards, with a construction time reduced by nearly 80% compared to traditional methods [4] Group 4: Industry Expansion - Companies are leveraging stable energy supply and advanced computing facilities to expand AI application scenarios across various sectors, including mining and information security [6][7] - Cloud Ding Technology, in collaboration with Huawei, developed the world's first AI model for the mining industry, enhancing safety and operational efficiency [6] Group 5: Capital Market Support - Jinan High-tech Zone has established a comprehensive capital market service system to support the growth of listed companies, which now number 19 and account for 40% of Jinan's total [8] - The region's listed companies have a combined market value exceeding 200 billion yuan, contributing significantly to the local economy [8]

Market Performance - The Hang Seng Index rose by 1.01% to close at 26,200.26 points, while the Hang Seng Tech Index increased by 1.27% to 5,902.69 points, and the National Enterprises Index gained 0.93% to 9,328.16 points [1] - The Hang Seng Index opened at 26,042.41 points, reaching a peak of 26,296.60 points before slightly retreating, ultimately gaining 262.13 points with a total turnover exceeding 288.2 billion HKD [1] - The southbound trading (Hong Kong Stock Connect) saw a net inflow of over 7.5 billion HKD [1] Sector Performance - Most sectors experienced declines, with notable increases in chips, banks, insurance, and brokerage stocks, while gold, coal, electricity, and hydrogen energy stocks showed mixed results [1] - Biopharmaceuticals, new energy vehicle companies, new consumption, and lithium battery stocks predominantly faced declines [1] Individual Stock Movements - Yunfeng Financial surged by 27.83%, and Yingxing Holdings rose by 23.88%, while Sanofi Pharmaceutical fell by 8.36%, Tianqi Lithium dropped by 7.97%, and Ganfeng Lithium decreased by 7.02% [1] - Bilibili increased by 7.57%, while China Properties Investment soared by 35.71%, and CITIC Bank rose by 2.23% [1] - Alibaba gained 0.63% with a turnover exceeding 26.3 billion HKD, Tencent Holdings rose by 1.04% with over 12.1 billion HKD in turnover, and Meituan increased by 2.06% with a turnover exceeding 9.5 billion HKD [2]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the articles highlights a significant shift in the technology sector, which has been a major driver of stock market gains in the US, Hong Kong, and A-shares, but has recently experienced a sharp decline [2][4] - The A-share market's Sci-Tech 50 Index fell over 6% on September 4, with a cumulative drop of nearly 10% over three trading days, while the Hang Seng Tech Index also declined by nearly 2% [2] - Notable individual stocks such as Tianfu Communication and Cambrian have seen declines exceeding 15%, indicating a broader sell-off in the tech sector [2][4] Group 2 - In contrast, sectors such as photovoltaic, energy storage, tourism, and banking in the A-share market have shown significant strength, with Agricultural Bank of China rising over 5% to reach a new high [4] - Despite a slight recovery in tech indices on September 5, the volatility in tech stocks suggests a divergence in market sentiment and potential selling pressure [4][5] - Institutions are optimistic about the future market, with expectations of interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve, which could benefit fixed asset investment and manufacturing activities in the US [5][6] Group 3 - Recommendations from institutions include focusing on physical assets like industrial metals and capital goods, as well as sectors benefiting from domestic demand recovery [6][7] - The market is expected to see a rotation between growth and balanced styles, with TMT and cyclical sectors being highlighted for investment opportunities [6][7] - Overall, there is a consensus among institutions that the market's rally is not over, although there are differing opinions on which sectors to focus on moving forward [7]

Market Overview - A-shares experienced fluctuations with a total market turnover exceeding 2.9 trillion yuan, while sectors such as CPO, semiconductors, and copper cable high-speed connections saw significant declines [1] - The banking, precious metals, PEEK materials, electricity, and industrial mother machine sectors showed gains [1] - The CSI A500 index fell by 1.1%, the CSI 300 index decreased by 0.7%, the ChiNext index dropped by 2.9%, and the STAR Market 50 index declined by 2.1% [1] - The Hang Seng China Enterprises Index experienced a slight decrease of 0.2% [1] Index Performance - The CSI 300 index, which tracks 300 large and liquid stocks, recorded a decline of 0.7% with a rolling price-to-earnings ratio of 14.1 times and a valuation percentile of 64.4% since its inception in 2005 [2] - The CSI A500 index, covering 500 securities from various industries, fell by 1.1% with a rolling price-to-earnings ratio of 16.6 times and a valuation percentile of 71.4% since its inception in 2004 [2] - The ChiNext index, consisting of 100 large and liquid stocks, saw a decline of 2.9% with a rolling price-to-earnings ratio of 41.9 times and a valuation percentile of 37.5% since its inception in 2010 [2] - The STAR Market 50 index, which includes 50 large and liquid stocks, decreased by 2.1% with a rolling price-to-earnings ratio of 186.8 times and a valuation percentile of 99.9% since its inception in 2020 [2] - The Hang Seng China Enterprises Index, tracking 50 large and active stocks listed in Hong Kong, fell by 0.2% with a rolling price-to-earnings ratio of 10.4 times and a valuation percentile of 63.2% since its inception in 2002 [2]

Group 1 - UBS's latest report indicates that the US stock market has reached new highs due to better-than-expected Q2 earnings, particularly in energy-related companies, and an increased likelihood of interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve in September [1][2] - UBS forecasts that the S&P 500 index will reach 6800 points by June 2026, suggesting that investors with insufficient stock exposure should gradually increase their investment proportions and take advantage of market pullbacks [1][2] - The S&P 500 index has risen 30% from its low in April, with current valuation levels being high compared to historical averages, as indicated by a forward P/E ratio of 22.5 and a Shiller cyclically adjusted P/E ratio of 37.9, both at the 99th percentile over the past 20 years [1][2] Group 2 - UBS does not believe there is a bubble in the market, as corporate earnings are growing, with EPS estimates for the S&P 500 raised to $270 for 2025 (an 8% increase) and $290 for 2026 (a 7.5% increase) [2] - Investor sentiment appears cautious, with surveys indicating a net bearish outlook among individual investors and institutional holdings reflecting caution [2][3] - UBS highlights that the current P/E ratios of major tech companies are significantly lower than those during the internet bubble, with the average expected P/E of the "Magnificent Seven" at 28 times compared to 82 times for leading companies in 1999 [2] Group 3 - The margin debt ratio, a part of market capitalization, is currently at 1.8%, close to a 30-year low of 1.5%, indicating a stable market environment [3] - UBS maintains a "neutral" rating on US stocks, focusing on specific sectors such as financials, technology, healthcare, utilities, and communication services, while also seeking structural growth opportunities in AI, electricity, and energy [3]

Market Overview - The Shanghai Composite Index experienced a narrow fluctuation, closing down 0.12% at 3635.13 points, while the Shenzhen Component Index and the ChiNext Index also declined by 0.26% and 0.38% respectively [1] - The total trading volume in the Shanghai and Shenzhen markets was 173.66 billion yuan, a decrease of approximately 116 billion yuan from the previous day [1] Sector Performance Semiconductor, Brokerage, and Banking - The semiconductor, brokerage, and banking sectors showed a downward trend [1] Hydropower Concept - The hydropower concept saw a resurgence, with companies like Shen Shui Institute and Shanghai Port Bay hitting the daily limit up, with Shen Shui Institute rising by 20% [3][4] - Other notable performers included Sanhe Intelligent and Guotong Co., both gaining over 10% [3] High-Speed Rail Concept - The high-speed rail sector surged in the afternoon, with companies like Jiao Da Tie Fa increasing by nearly 24% and Jin Ying Heavy Industry hitting the daily limit up [6][7] - Other companies in this sector, such as Aerospace Intelligent Equipment and Tie Ke Track, also saw gains exceeding 10% [6] Commercial Aerospace Concept - The commercial aerospace sector was active, with companies like Fei Wo Technology and De En Precision Engineering both hitting the daily limit up [10][11] - The frequency of satellite launches in China has significantly increased, indicating a rapid development phase for the commercial aerospace industry [12][13]

Report Industry Investment Rating - The report predicts that stock index futures will show a moderately strong oscillatory trend [3] Core Viewpoints - On July 18, all current-month contracts of the four major stock index futures rose. IF increased by 0.55%, IH by 0.65%, IC by 0.14%, and IM by 0.15% [1] - On this trading day, the total trading volume of stock index futures rebounded, indicating an increase in investors' trading enthusiasm. Specifically, the total trading volume of IF increased by 8,649 contracts, IH by 13,531 contracts, while IC decreased by 4,511 contracts and IM by 10,644 contracts. In terms of positions, the total positions of IF decreased by 9,992 contracts, IH by 1,084 contracts, IC by 8,166 contracts, and IM by 18,902 contracts [2] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Stock Index Futures Data - **IF Contracts**: The closing prices of IF2507, IF2508, IF2509, and IF2512 were 4,050.6, 4,054, 4,041.8, and 4,005.8 respectively, with increases of 0.55%, 0.89%, 0.91%, and 0.90%. The trading volumes were 16,595, 27,038, 59,958, and 10,689 contracts respectively, with changes of -10,517, +6,124, +10,086, and +2,956 contracts. The positions were 0, 44,062, 157,186, and 51,932 contracts respectively, with changes of -23,303, +7,462, +3,905, and +1,944 contracts [1] - **IH Contracts**: The closing prices of IH2507, IH2508, IH2509, and IH2512 were 2,758.8, 2,768.2, 2,767, and 2,769.2 respectively, with increases of 0.65%, 1.08%, 1.05%, and 1.05%. The trading volumes were 10,204, 15,113, 35,272, and 5,000 contracts respectively, with changes of -1,328, +4,439, +8,696, and +1,724 contracts. The positions were 0, 19,280, 61,598, and 12,583 contracts respectively, with changes of -12,236, +6,015, +4,237, and +900 contracts [1] - **IC Contracts**: The closing prices of IC2507, IC2508, IC2509, and IC2512 were 6,086.2, 6,054, 6,000.8, and 5,872.4 respectively, with increases of 0.14%, 0.48%, 0.48%, and 0.47%. The trading volumes were 15,641, 27,118, 41,183, and 10,563 contracts respectively, with changes of -11,485, +1,873, +2,879, and +2,222 contracts. The positions were 0, 52,897, 104,430, and 58,268 contracts respectively, with changes of -19,812, +7,450, +2,135, and +2,061 contracts [1] - **IM Contracts**: The closing prices of IM2507, IM2508, IM2509, and IM2512 were 6,534.6, 6,490, 6,413.6, and 6,227.4 respectively, with increases of 0.15%, 0.50%, 0.47%, and 0.49%. The trading volumes were 21,453, 36,736, 104,691, and 22,446 contracts respectively, with changes of -14,388, +8,419, -4,685, and +10 contracts. The positions were 0, 60,327, 175,267, and 76,869 contracts respectively, with changes of -28,897, +14,880, -2,201, and +551 contracts [1] Trading and Position Analysis - Total trading volume rebounded, indicating increased trading enthusiasm. IF and IH increased, while IC and IM decreased. Total positions of all decreased [2] Trend Intensity - IF and IH trend intensity is 1; IC and IM trend intensity is 1. The range of trend intensity is an integer in the [-2, 2] interval, with -2 being the most bearish and 2 being the most bullish [6] Important Drivers - Four ministries including the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology deployed work to further standardize the competition order in the new energy vehicle industry, requiring in-depth product price monitoring, product consistency supervision, and shortening the payment period for suppliers. They also strengthened industry self - discipline and抵制 online chaos [6] - The State Administration for Market Regulation约谈ed Ele.me, Meituan, and JD.com, requiring them to standardize promotional activities and promote the healthy development of the catering service industry [6] - A symposium on the situation and policies for private entrepreneurs was held in Beijing, emphasizing that private entrepreneurs should enhance their development confidence and stay in line with the Party Central Committee [6] - The China Iron and Steel Industry Association held a meeting of planning department heads, suggesting strict control of new capacity, establishment of a new capacity governance mechanism, and implementation of crude steel production control [7] Market Performance - The three major stock indexes fluctuated upwards. The Shanghai Composite Index rose 0.5%, the Shenzhen Component Index rose 0.37%, and the ChiNext Index rose 0.34%. A - share trading volume was 1.59 trillion yuan, up from 1.56 trillion yuan the previous day. Concepts such as rare earth permanent magnets, lithium mines, innovative drugs, solid - state batteries, and power stocks performed strongly [7]

Core Viewpoint - The A-share market showed mixed performance with the ChiNext Index leading gains, driven by ERP concept stocks, while the Shanghai Composite Index experienced a decline [1] Market Performance - The Shanghai Composite Index fell by 0.42%, while the Shenzhen Component Index rose by 0.56% and the ChiNext Index increased by 1.73% [1] - Total trading volume in the Shanghai and Shenzhen markets reached 1.61 trillion yuan, an increase of 153.3 billion yuan compared to the previous trading day [1] Sector Highlights - AI-related sectors were the main focus, with over 4,000 stocks declining across the two markets [1] - The ERP concept, CPO, and multimodal AI sectors saw significant gains, with stocks like Dingjie Zhizhi, Yunding Technology, and Yongyou Network hitting the daily limit [1] - The real estate sector showed signs of recovery in the afternoon, with Yucheng Development also hitting the daily limit [1] Declining Sectors - The photovoltaic sector continued to struggle, with stocks like Yamaton hitting the daily limit down [1] - The coal sector faced ongoing declines, with Dayou Energy dropping over 9% [1] - The power sector experienced adjustments, with stocks such as Tuori New Energy and Huayin Power hitting the daily limit down [1]