证 券 研 究 报 告 比亚迪（002594）重大事项点评 强推（维持） 第二代刀片电池、兆瓦闪充引领行业技术新 纪元 事项： ❖ 3 月 5 日，比亚迪举行比亚迪二代电池暨闪充技术发布会。 评论： 第二代刀片电池与兆瓦闪充技术针对性解决续航焦虑、充电慢、低温充电难等 行业痛点，通过技术上的领先优势打造产品力上的核心壁垒与差异化优势。两 项新技术将首批量产上车仰望 U7/U8/U8L、腾势 Z9GT、方程豹钛 7/钛 3、大 唐/宋 Ultra EV/海豹 07 EV/海狮 06 EV，并规划在 2026 年内技术下放至 10-20 万元主流车型。 公司研究 乘用车Ⅲ 2026 年 03 月 07 日 目标价：105.3-115.8 元、108.7-119.5 港元 当前价：93.62 元、94.7 港元 华创证券研究所 证券分析师：张程航 电话：021-20572543 邮箱：zhangchenghang@hcyjs.com 执业编号：S0360519070003 联系人：张睿希 邮箱：zhangruixi@hcyjs.com 公司基本数据 | 总股本(万股) | 911,719.76 | | --- | ...

Core Viewpoint - BYD's frequent price cuts have led to a significant trust crisis among existing car owners, with widespread complaints and a growing sentiment of betrayal among consumers [1][8]. Group 1: Price Cuts and Consumer Reactions - Owners of the BYD Han series have reported a price drop from 270,000 yuan to around 190,000 yuan within two years, highlighting a depreciation of 100,000 yuan [3]. - A customer who purchased a Song L in January 2025 expressed frustration over a new insurance subsidy policy that caused her vehicle's value to decrease before she even took delivery, costing her an additional 5,000 yuan [3]. - The introduction of the new intelligent driving version led to a 50,000 yuan drop in the residual value of a recently purchased Tang DM-i model [3]. Group 2: Sales Practices and Consumer Rights - BYD's dealerships have been accused of failing to disclose upcoming model changes, leading to customers purchasing outdated models without knowledge of imminent upgrades [5]. - Customers have reported that new models are being released with significant upgrades at the same price, leaving older models as "technical test products" that cannot be upgraded [5]. Group 3: Challenges in Consumer Rights Protection - Many customers have abandoned their claims for compensation due to the time and effort required to gather evidence and seek legal assistance, with over 600 complaints related to model iteration disputes filed against BYD [6]. - Some dealerships are using tactics like "installment discounts" and "clearance sales" to further reduce the value of older models, leading to accusations of betrayal from customers [7]. Group 4: Market Response and Consumer Sentiment - A trend of self-deprecating humor among car owners has emerged, with products labeled "BYD Leek Eye" selling over 500 units on e-commerce platforms, reflecting a growing distrust in the brand [8]. - Potential consumers are increasingly hesitant to purchase BYD vehicles, with some opting for competitors due to the ongoing price cuts and consumer rights issues, indicating a potential long-term impact on brand reputation [9].

Core Viewpoint - The impending change in the new energy vehicle (NEV) purchase tax policy is creating a dilemma for potential buyers, as the full exemption will end in 2026, leading to a significant shift in market dynamics and pricing strategies among automakers and banks [1][2]. Group 1: Policy Changes and Market Impact - The new policy will halve the purchase tax for NEVs starting January 1, 2026, with a maximum deduction of 15,000 yuan per vehicle, marking the end of the full exemption era [1]. - Automakers are responding to the new tax structure by adjusting their pricing strategies, particularly for vehicles priced below 300,000 yuan, which will still benefit from the tax reduction [1][2]. - The average annual price of battery-grade lithium carbonate is projected to drop significantly, providing automakers with room to absorb increased costs from the tax changes [2]. Group 2: Consumer Behavior and Financing Trends - The increase in purchase tax is expected to raise the cost of NEVs by 6,000 to 15,000 yuan, influencing consumer purchasing decisions, especially among budget-conscious buyers [3][5]. - There is a notable increase in loan applications for NEVs priced above 300,000 yuan, with a year-on-year growth of over 20% since November [2]. - Consumers are actively participating in year-end promotions, with many opting to purchase vehicles now to take advantage of current discounts before the tax changes take effect [3][5]. Group 3: Promotional Strategies and Market Competition - Automakers and banks are launching aggressive year-end promotions, including cash discounts, trade-in subsidies, and zero-interest financing offers, to boost sales [3][4]. - The average price of NEVs has decreased significantly, with a reported drop of 14% from peak levels, allowing for competitive pricing strategies [4]. - Some automakers are resorting to selling vehicles at a loss to meet sales targets, indicating intense competition and pressure to clear inventory before the new tax policy takes effect [4][6]. Group 4: Risks and Challenges in Financing - Consumers are facing potential pitfalls in financing options, including hidden fees and inflated vehicle prices disguised as zero-interest loans [3][4][5]. - The banking sector is adapting to the changing landscape, with a focus on high-end vehicle loans and innovative financing solutions to capture market share [8][9]. - The collaboration between banks and automakers is expected to deepen, with many automakers forming joint financial companies to enhance customer acquisition and financing options [9].

Core Insights - The new policy on the exemption of vehicle purchase tax for new energy vehicles (NEVs) has been officially announced, marking 2023 as the last year for full exemption, with a 50% reduction in 2026 and 2027 [1][9] - Consumers are currently favoring older models due to the immediate tax benefits, while new models are experiencing lower demand due to uncertainty regarding pricing and delivery timelines [1][3][4] Group 1: Policy Impact - The new vehicle purchase tax policy is expected to significantly influence consumer behavior, with many opting to purchase older models to take advantage of the full tax exemption [1][2] - Sales strategies have shifted, with dealerships emphasizing the urgency of purchasing before the tax changes take effect, leading to increased foot traffic and sales [2][3] Group 2: Consumer Behavior - Consumers are showing a preference for older models, with some dealerships reporting that they have only display vehicles left for sale [4][6] - Concerns about delivery delays for new models are causing potential buyers to reconsider their options, leading to a trend of purchasing older models instead [4][10] Group 3: Market Dynamics - The competitive landscape is shifting from "incremental competition" to "stock competition," as the market anticipates a significant drop in demand following the policy changes [9][11] - Dealerships are implementing various promotional strategies, including trade-in subsidies and interest-free financing, to boost sales in the current market environment [3][9] Group 4: Future Outlook - Experts predict that the upcoming tax policy changes will lead to a decline in market demand in early 2026, as consumers may have already made purchases in anticipation of the tax benefits [9][11] - Manufacturers are expected to respond to the changing market conditions by enhancing product quality and focusing on technological advancements to maintain competitiveness [11][13]

Group 1: Li Auto's Clarification on i7 Model - Li Auto's chairman clarified that there is no i7 model, focusing on the upcoming launch of the i6 pure electric SUV on September 26 [1] - This clarification helps to align market expectations and avoid confusion regarding the product line, potentially boosting investor confidence in rational competition within the industry [1] Group 2: New National Standards by Market Regulation Administration - The Market Regulation Administration revised and released two national standards for urban public transport and car rental services, effective November 1 [2] - The new standards enhance safety requirements for new energy vehicles and regulate car rental platforms to prevent malicious competition and false advertising [2] - These regulations are expected to stabilize the market order in the transportation service sector and enhance investor confidence in the long-term healthy development of related industries [2] Group 3: BMW's Hydrogen Fuel Cell System Development - BMW announced the launch of its third-generation hydrogen fuel cell system, with prototype production already underway [3] - The new system is set to be mass-produced by 2028 and will first be integrated into the new generation BMW X5, featuring a 25% reduction in space requirements [3] - This collaboration with Toyota highlights the diversification of energy pathways in the automotive industry and may accelerate infrastructure investment and commercialization in the hydrogen energy sector [3] Group 4: BYD's Response to Buffett's Shareholding Changes - BYD's public relations manager stated that Berkshire Hathaway's reduction of its stake in BYD is a normal investment behavior, expressing gratitude for the long-term support [4] - This response aims to stabilize market sentiment and reflects BYD's confidence in its future prospects [4] - The exit of major investors is not expected to impact the long-term logic of the industry, instead prompting a focus on the company's fundamentals and supporting rational valuation in the stock market [4]