宏观层面，12月26日，国家发展改革委产业发展司发布《大力推动传统产业优化提升》一文，利好情绪 推动有色板块整体走强，铜、铝、锡、锌等金属价格大幅上扬，市场看涨氛围浓厚。本交易日美元指数 触底反弹，叠加美国股市下挫，国内三大股指涨跌互现，限制铸造铝涨幅。不过，人民币持续升值，降 低了非美元货币的持有成本，铸造铝期货价格继续偏强震荡。 基本面方面，ADC12现货价格大幅上涨，为期价提供有力支撑。废铝价格居高不下且供应偏紧，再生 铝行业持续亏损，存在成本支撑效应。库存上，截至12月26日，铝合金周度库存为5.23万吨，虽较前一 周小幅下降，但仍处于历史高位。考虑到2026年补贴政策退坡以及消费需求前置，后期新能源汽车订单 的持续性存疑，预计铸造铝期价上行空间有限。现货市场买卖交投氛围整体向好。铝合金价格高位大幅 上涨，强化了持货商挺价惜售情绪，下游在看涨预期带动下积极入市采买，叠加元旦假期临近，下游补 货备库需求增加，市场活跃度显著提升，今日整体成交热烈。 综合来看，在铝价偏强和亏损压力下，铝合金价格支撑较强，但未来需求走弱预期及再生铝合金高库 存，将限制其上涨动力。 长江有色金属网www.ccmn.cn 电话： ...

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. Core Viewpoints - The lithium carbonate market is expected to see an increase in both supply and demand, with inventory continuing to decline. It is recommended to conduct short - term long trades with a light position at low prices and control risks by paying attention to trading rhythms [6]. Summary by Directory 1. Weekly Highlights Summary - **Market Review**: The weekly line of the lithium carbonate main contract fluctuated strongly, with a rise of +5.93% and an amplitude of 10.85%. As of the end of this week, the main contract closed at 96,420 yuan/ton [6]. - **Macroeconomic Policy**: Six departments jointly issued an implementation plan to promote consumption, aiming to optimize the consumer goods supply structure by 2027 [6]. - **Fundamentals**: In the raw material segment, lithium prices are relatively good, driving up the price of lithium ore. Mines are more willing to sell, and smelters are more active in purchasing. The supply of domestic lithium carbonate is expected to increase, while the demand side is also supported by the peak consumption season of downstream battery materials, the boost in pre - holiday car - buying enthusiasm due to the subsidy policy change for new energy vehicles next year, and the significant increase in the energy storage industry [6]. - **Trading Advice**: Conduct short - term long trades with a light position at low prices and control risks [6]. 2. Futures and Spot Market - **Futures Price**: As of November 28, 2025, the closing price of the lithium carbonate main contract was 96,420 yuan/ton, a weekly increase of 5,400 yuan/ton. The near - far month spread was - 1,860 yuan/ton, a weekly decrease of 1,660 yuan/ton [9]. - **Spot Price**: As of November 28, 2025, the average price of battery - grade lithium carbonate was 93,750 yuan/ton, a weekly increase of 1,450 yuan/ton. The basis of the main contract was - 2,670 yuan/ton, a weekly decrease of 3,950 yuan/ton [16]. 3. Upstream Market - **Lithium Spodumene**: As of November 28, 2025, the average price of lithium spodumene concentrate (6% - 6.5%) was $1,220/ton, a weekly increase of $10/ton [20]. - **Lithium Mica and Phosphorus - Lithium - Aluminum Stone**: As of November 28, 2025, the average price of lithium mica (Li₂O: 2.0% - 3%) was 3,894 yuan/ton, a weekly decrease of 34 yuan/ton. The average price of phosphorus - lithium - aluminum stone was 10,525 yuan/ton, a weekly increase of 425 yuan/ton [25]. 4. Industry Supply - **Imports and Exports**: As of October 2025, the monthly import volume of lithium carbonate was 23,880.69 tons, a 21.86% increase from September and a 2.95% year - on - year increase. The monthly export volume was 245.912 tons, a 63.06% increase from September and a 17.93% year - on - year decrease [30]. - **Production**: As of October 2025, the monthly output of lithium carbonate was 51,530 tons, a 9.31% increase from September and a 62.15% year - on - year increase. The monthly operating rate was 43%, a 5% decrease from the previous month and a 32% year - on - year decrease [30]. 5. Downstream Demand - **Hexafluorophosphate Lithium and Electrolyte**: As of November 28, 2025, the average price of hexafluorophosphate lithium was 180,000 yuan/ton, a weekly increase of 5,000 yuan/ton. As of October 2025, the monthly output of electrolyte was 219,900 tons, a 6.98% increase from September and a 41.32% year - on - year increase [33]. - **Lithium Iron Phosphate**: As of the latest data this week, the average price of power - type lithium iron phosphate was 39,100 yuan/ton, a weekly increase of 10,000 yuan/ton. As of October 2025, the monthly output of lithium iron phosphate cathode materials was 266,880 tons, an 8.36% increase from September and a 45.92% year - on - year increase. The monthly operating rate was 64% [38]. - **Ternary Materials**: As of October 2025, the monthly output of ternary materials was 62,020 tons, a 1.77% decrease from September and a 15.95% year - on - year increase. The monthly operating rate was 52%. As of the latest data this week, the prices of 811 - type, 622 - type, and 523 - type ternary materials remained stable [41]. - **Lithium Manganate**: As of October 2025, the monthly output of lithium manganate was 10,300 tons, a 3.83% increase from September and a 3.65% year - on - year decrease. As of the latest data this week, the average price of lithium manganate was 36,000 yuan/ton, a weekly decrease of 1,000 yuan/ton [46]. - **Lithium Cobaltate**: As of the latest data this week, the average price of lithium cobaltate was 343,500 yuan/ton, remaining unchanged from the previous week. As of October 2025, the monthly output of lithium cobaltate was 15,790 tons, a 4.71% increase from September and a 116.01% year - on - year increase [49]. - **New Energy Vehicles**: As of October 2025, the penetration rate of new energy vehicles was 46.75%. The monthly production was 1,772,000 vehicles, a 9.59% increase from the previous month, and the monthly sales were 1,715,000 vehicles, a 6.92% increase from the previous month. The cumulative export volume was 2.014 million vehicles, a 90.36% year - on - year increase [52][56]. 6. Options Market - Based on the option parity theory and the performance of at - the - money contracts, combined with the fundamental situation, it is recommended to construct a short straddle option to short volatility. The premium of the synthetic underlying is - 0.01, presenting a reverse arbitrage opportunity [61].

Group 1: Global Electric Vehicle Market - In September, global electric vehicle sales reached a record 2.1 million units, a year-on-year increase of 26%, driven by strong demand in China and tax incentives in the U.S. [1] - China remains the largest market for electric vehicle sales, while North America also set sales records due to consumer actions ahead of the expiration of EV subsidies at the end of September [1] Group 2: Domestic Market Performance - In September, China's retail sales of passenger vehicles reached 2.241 million units, a year-on-year increase of 6.3%, with cumulative retail sales for the first nine months at 17.005 million units, up 9.2% [1] - The record sales in September were attributed to the launch of over 70 new models, the highest concentration in history, and the urgency created by the expiration of tax exemptions for new energy vehicles [1] Group 3: Policy Impact on Automotive Sector - The automotive sector is experiencing strong performance due to multiple favorable policies, with a smooth transition in vehicle purchase tax policy expected to stabilize market expectations [2] - The government has set a target of 32.3 million total vehicle sales by 2025, with new energy vehicle sales projected at 15.5 million units, reflecting a growth rate of 20% [2] Group 4: Company Performance Highlights - BYD reported approximately 405,600 units produced and 396,300 units sold in September 2025, with a year-on-year production increase of 16.4% and sales increase of 18.64% for the first nine months [3] - Li Auto delivered 33,951 vehicles in September 2025, with a total of 93,211 vehicles delivered in Q3 2025, bringing cumulative deliveries to 1,431,021 units [3] - XPeng Motors achieved record deliveries of 41,581 smart electric vehicles in September 2025, a 95% year-on-year increase, with total deliveries for the first nine months reaching 313,196 units, up 218% from the previous year [3] - NIO delivered 34,749 vehicles in September 2025, marking a 64.1% year-on-year increase, with total deliveries for Q3 2025 reaching 87,071 units, a 40.8% increase [4][5]