021-60635727 penghaozhou@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3065843 021-60635740 pengjinglin@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3075681 行业 纸浆日报 日期 2025 年 12 月 5 日 能源化工研究团队 研究员：刘悠然（纸浆） 021-60635570 liuyouran@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F03094925 研究员:李捷,CFA（原油沥青） 021-60635738 lijie@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3031215 021-60635737 renjunchi@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3037892 021-60635727 fengzeren@ccb.ccbfutures.com 研究员：任俊弛（PTA、MEG） 研究员：彭浩洲（工业硅多晶硅） 研究员：彭婧霖（聚烯烃） 研究员：冯泽仁（玻璃纯碱） 请阅读正文后的声明 期货从业资格号：F03134307 ＃summary＃ 每日报告 一、行情回顾 ...

Core Insights - The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology and five other departments have issued an implementation plan to enhance the adaptability of supply and demand in consumer goods, aiming for dynamic equilibrium over the next five years [1][2] - A chain store in Chongqing has launched its first "Silver Economy Theme Store," which has been upgraded to cater to the needs of the elderly, including wider aisles and educational opportunities [1] - The implementation plan identifies key tasks to enrich the supply of various consumer products, including baby products, quality student supplies, trendy items, and age-appropriate products [1] Industry Developments - The plan aims to guide enterprises in producing goods that meet consumer preferences, thereby enhancing the quality and pricing of products available to the public [2] - China is the world's second-largest consumer market, with per capita annual consumer spending increasing from 8,000 yuan to 15,000 yuan since 2013, maintaining over 50% of total consumer expenditure [2] - The implementation plan sets two main development goals: to establish three trillion-yuan consumption sectors and ten hundred-billion-yuan consumption hotspots by 2027, and to achieve a high-quality development pattern of mutual promotion between supply and consumption by 2030 [2]

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. Core Viewpoints - The lithium carbonate market is expected to see an increase in both supply and demand, with inventory continuing to decline. It is recommended to conduct short - term long trades with a light position at low prices and control risks by paying attention to trading rhythms [6]. Summary by Directory 1. Weekly Highlights Summary - **Market Review**: The weekly line of the lithium carbonate main contract fluctuated strongly, with a rise of +5.93% and an amplitude of 10.85%. As of the end of this week, the main contract closed at 96,420 yuan/ton [6]. - **Macroeconomic Policy**: Six departments jointly issued an implementation plan to promote consumption, aiming to optimize the consumer goods supply structure by 2027 [6]. - **Fundamentals**: In the raw material segment, lithium prices are relatively good, driving up the price of lithium ore. Mines are more willing to sell, and smelters are more active in purchasing. The supply of domestic lithium carbonate is expected to increase, while the demand side is also supported by the peak consumption season of downstream battery materials, the boost in pre - holiday car - buying enthusiasm due to the subsidy policy change for new energy vehicles next year, and the significant increase in the energy storage industry [6]. - **Trading Advice**: Conduct short - term long trades with a light position at low prices and control risks [6]. 2. Futures and Spot Market - **Futures Price**: As of November 28, 2025, the closing price of the lithium carbonate main contract was 96,420 yuan/ton, a weekly increase of 5,400 yuan/ton. The near - far month spread was - 1,860 yuan/ton, a weekly decrease of 1,660 yuan/ton [9]. - **Spot Price**: As of November 28, 2025, the average price of battery - grade lithium carbonate was 93,750 yuan/ton, a weekly increase of 1,450 yuan/ton. The basis of the main contract was - 2,670 yuan/ton, a weekly decrease of 3,950 yuan/ton [16]. 3. Upstream Market - **Lithium Spodumene**: As of November 28, 2025, the average price of lithium spodumene concentrate (6% - 6.5%) was $1,220/ton, a weekly increase of $10/ton [20]. - **Lithium Mica and Phosphorus - Lithium - Aluminum Stone**: As of November 28, 2025, the average price of lithium mica (Li₂O: 2.0% - 3%) was 3,894 yuan/ton, a weekly decrease of 34 yuan/ton. The average price of phosphorus - lithium - aluminum stone was 10,525 yuan/ton, a weekly increase of 425 yuan/ton [25]. 4. Industry Supply - **Imports and Exports**: As of October 2025, the monthly import volume of lithium carbonate was 23,880.69 tons, a 21.86% increase from September and a 2.95% year - on - year increase. The monthly export volume was 245.912 tons, a 63.06% increase from September and a 17.93% year - on - year decrease [30]. - **Production**: As of October 2025, the monthly output of lithium carbonate was 51,530 tons, a 9.31% increase from September and a 62.15% year - on - year increase. The monthly operating rate was 43%, a 5% decrease from the previous month and a 32% year - on - year decrease [30]. 5. Downstream Demand - **Hexafluorophosphate Lithium and Electrolyte**: As of November 28, 2025, the average price of hexafluorophosphate lithium was 180,000 yuan/ton, a weekly increase of 5,000 yuan/ton. As of October 2025, the monthly output of electrolyte was 219,900 tons, a 6.98% increase from September and a 41.32% year - on - year increase [33]. - **Lithium Iron Phosphate**: As of the latest data this week, the average price of power - type lithium iron phosphate was 39,100 yuan/ton, a weekly increase of 10,000 yuan/ton. As of October 2025, the monthly output of lithium iron phosphate cathode materials was 266,880 tons, an 8.36% increase from September and a 45.92% year - on - year increase. The monthly operating rate was 64% [38]. - **Ternary Materials**: As of October 2025, the monthly output of ternary materials was 62,020 tons, a 1.77% decrease from September and a 15.95% year - on - year increase. The monthly operating rate was 52%. As of the latest data this week, the prices of 811 - type, 622 - type, and 523 - type ternary materials remained stable [41]. - **Lithium Manganate**: As of October 2025, the monthly output of lithium manganate was 10,300 tons, a 3.83% increase from September and a 3.65% year - on - year decrease. As of the latest data this week, the average price of lithium manganate was 36,000 yuan/ton, a weekly decrease of 1,000 yuan/ton [46]. - **Lithium Cobaltate**: As of the latest data this week, the average price of lithium cobaltate was 343,500 yuan/ton, remaining unchanged from the previous week. As of October 2025, the monthly output of lithium cobaltate was 15,790 tons, a 4.71% increase from September and a 116.01% year - on - year increase [49]. - **New Energy Vehicles**: As of October 2025, the penetration rate of new energy vehicles was 46.75%. The monthly production was 1,772,000 vehicles, a 9.59% increase from the previous month, and the monthly sales were 1,715,000 vehicles, a 6.92% increase from the previous month. The cumulative export volume was 2.014 million vehicles, a 90.36% year - on - year increase [52][56]. 6. Options Market - Based on the option parity theory and the performance of at - the - money contracts, combined with the fundamental situation, it is recommended to construct a short straddle option to short volatility. The premium of the synthetic underlying is - 0.01, presenting a reverse arbitrage opportunity [61].

Market Overview - The A-share market opened lower but rebounded, with the Shanghai Composite Index closing at 3883.46 points, up 0.21% [1] - The Shenzhen Component Index rose by 0.72%, and the ChiNext Index increased by 0.71% [1] Trading Volume - The trading volume in the Shanghai and Shenzhen markets was below 1 trillion yuan, decreasing by 112.3 billion yuan compared to the previous trading day [2] - A total of 3568 stocks rose, with 59 hitting the daily limit, while 1626 stocks declined [2] Sector Performance - The energy and metals sector led the gains, with lithium mining and semiconductor equipment concepts performing strongly [2] - The dairy sector saw significant movement, with stocks like Yantang Dairy and Sunshine Dairy hitting the limit up [6][7] - The precious metals sector rebounded, with stocks like Longgao Co. and Shengda Resources seeing notable increases [11][12] Consumer Sector - The consumer sector showed strength, particularly in soft drinks, food, and alcoholic beverages, with dairy stocks experiencing a strong rally [6] - The implementation plan announced on November 26 aims to optimize the supply structure of consumer goods by 2027, targeting three trillion-level consumption areas and ten hundred-billion-level consumption hotspots [8] Precious Metals - The precious metals sector continued to rise, influenced by the increasing probability of a Federal Reserve rate cut in December [10] - Spot gold prices surged, reaching approximately $4186.52 per ounce [12] Real Estate Sector - The real estate sector continued its downward trend, with stocks like China Merchants Shekou and Poly Developments declining [18] - Vanke A's stock price fell over 3% during the day, hitting a new low since August 2015 [18]

Core Points - The State Council introduced a new implementation plan aimed at enhancing the adaptability of supply and demand in consumer goods, with goals set for 2027 and 2030 [1] - The plan emphasizes the shift in consumer focus from mere availability to quality, aiming to promote high-quality consumer goods [1] Group 1: Development Goals - By 2027, the plan aims to establish three trillion-level consumption sectors and ten hundred-billion-level consumption hotspots [1] - By 2030, the goal is to create a high-quality development pattern where supply and consumption interact positively, gradually increasing the contribution of consumption to economic growth [1] Group 2: Supply Quality Improvement - The National Development and Reform Commission (NDRC) plans to enhance supply quality through technology and brand development, focusing on high-quality consumer goods [2] - Initiatives include the "Artificial Intelligence+" action to promote intelligent development across industries and the cultivation of a smart product ecosystem [2] Group 3: Brand and Green Development - The NDRC has launched various activities to promote brand awareness and quality, including the "Brand China" series and training programs for industry leaders [3] - Since the 14th Five-Year Plan, 30 mandatory energy efficiency standards have been revised or established to support green and low-carbon consumption [3] Group 4: Consumer Demand Focus - The NDRC is enhancing the supply of convenient facilities such as parking spaces and charging stations, with over 3.4 million parking spaces added and 18.645 million electric vehicle charging points established, a 54% increase year-on-year [4] - The plan includes support for high-quality outdoor sports destinations and products, as well as promoting aging-friendly products to cater to the silver economy [4]

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the implementation plan aimed at enhancing the adaptability of supply and demand in consumer goods, focusing on key consumption hotspots and strategies to stimulate domestic consumption [1][14]. Group 1: Key Consumption Hotspots - Three trillion-level consumption areas identified are elderly products, smart connected vehicles, and consumer electronics [4][10]. - Ten billion-level consumption hotspots include baby products, smart wearable devices, cosmetics, fitness equipment, outdoor products, pet food and supplies, civilian drones, trendy toys, jewelry, and national trend clothing [5][10]. - The elderly products market is projected to grow from 2.6 trillion yuan in 2014 to 5.4 trillion yuan by 2024, with a compound annual growth rate of 7.3% [10]. Group 2: Supply and Demand Adaptability - The core idea of the implementation plan is to shift production and consumption from quantity to quality, addressing mismatches in supply and demand [6][14]. - The plan includes measures to expand new technology applications, enhance product supply, and create new consumption scenarios [14][15]. Group 3: Consumer Trends and Innovations - As of mid-2023, the user base for generative AI products in China reached 515 million, indicating a growing trend in technology adoption [7][15]. - In the first ten months of this year, the trade-in program for consumer goods generated over 2.4 trillion yuan in sales, benefiting more than 360 million people [8][17]. Group 4: Future Directions - The Ministry of Commerce plans to promote large-scale consumption, expand new types of consumption, and create an international consumption environment [18]. - Focus areas include automotive consumption reforms, green and smart home appliances, and the development of health and digital consumption sectors [18].

Core Insights - The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology (MIIT) is collaborating with relevant departments to enhance the research and development of products such as elderly care service robots [1][2] - The Chinese consumer market is undergoing a transformation from total expansion to structural optimization, driven by changes in consumer demographics and preferences [1] Group 1: Focus on Different Consumer Groups - For infants and students, the emphasis is on "healthy growth" and "learning efficiency," addressing issues like product functionality, quality inconsistencies, and safety hazards [1] - The MIIT plans to support the development of new eco-friendly materials and establish a strict quality standard system to promote high-quality products [1] - In the elderly care sector, the focus is on "practical convenience" and "quality of life," addressing challenges such as mobility issues and the need for home care [2] Group 2: Product Development and Standards - The MIIT will enhance the development of elderly care products, including service robots, adaptive clothing, and easy-to-swallow foods, while promoting the adaptation of internet applications for the elderly [2] - An initiative called "惠老助企" (Benefit the Elderly and Assist Enterprises) will be organized to promote nearly 2,000 quality elderly products, expanding access to safe and comfortable items [2] - The MIIT is accelerating the establishment of a standard system for elderly products and researching a "Silver Age" certification to label qualified products with an "安心标签" (Peace of Mind Label) [2] Group 3: Catering to Younger Consumers - The MIIT highlights the importance of "individual expression" and "fashion leadership" for the younger demographic, as traditional culture influences consumer upgrades [2] - Support will be provided for the development of culturally rich and fashionable products, such as national trend clothing and designer collaborations [2] - The MIIT encourages the growth of personalized services to meet the diverse and individualized consumption needs of consumers [2]

Core Viewpoint - The Chinese government is enhancing policies to improve the adaptability of consumer goods supply and demand, particularly focusing on the elderly population's needs [1] Group 1: Policy Measures - The government will emphasize the combination of "practical convenience" and "quality of life" in services for the elderly [1] - There will be collaboration with relevant departments to strengthen the research and development of products such as elderly care service robots, suitable clothing and footwear, and easy-to-swallow food [1] - Continuous promotion of internet applications and the adaptation of smart terminals for the elderly will be prioritized [1]

Core Insights - The Chinese government is promoting policies to enhance the adaptability of supply and demand in consumer goods, with a focus on artificial intelligence (AI) as a catalyst for consumption growth [1][3]. Group 1: AI User Base and Market Trends - As of the first half of this year, the user base for generative AI products in China has reached 515 million, with continuous expansion of application scenarios and a surge in new AI terminal products [1]. - AI is transforming consumption from merely purchasing products to subscribing to a lifestyle, indicating a shift in consumer behavior [3]. Group 2: Product Innovation - The government plans to drive product innovation by integrating AI and big data into the digital transformation of key consumer goods sectors, aiming to establish a digital ecosystem that connects user demand, intelligent design, flexible production, and precise services [4]. - In the home appliance sector, there is support for developing smart appliances that utilize user behavior data for decision-making, enhancing user experience through features like automatic shopping lists [4]. Group 3: Scenario Expansion - The initiative will promote the integration of AI into more consumer scenarios, creating new experiences and stimulating demand, such as in smart home environments and health care for the elderly [5]. - Examples include AI glasses that provide hands-free navigation and personalized services, and the development of AI-powered health monitoring products aimed at improving elderly care [5]. Group 4: Future Directions - The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology will focus on demand-driven, technology-led, and ecosystem-coordinated approaches to deepen the integration of AI with the consumer goods sector, continuously expanding new consumption scenarios [6].

Core Viewpoint - The Chinese government is implementing policies to enhance the adaptability of consumer goods supply and demand, aiming to stimulate consumption and promote economic circulation [1][3]. Group 1: Policy Goals - The "Implementation Plan" sets two main development goals: to establish three trillion-level consumption sectors and ten hundred-billion-level consumption hotspots by 2027, and to create a high-quality development pattern of positive interaction between supply and consumption by 2030 [3][4]. - The plan emphasizes the importance of aligning supply with consumer demand to maximize consumption potential and facilitate economic growth [3]. Group 2: Key Measures - The plan outlines five key measures to address supply-demand mismatches: 1. Expand new increments by accelerating the application of new technologies and innovative models, promoting flexible production and user participation in design [3][4]. 2. Deepen existing stock by enhancing the supply of specialized and new products, focusing on areas like green, health, and rural consumption [4]. 3. Segment the market to precisely match the needs of different demographic groups, including initiatives for children's and elderly products [4][5]. 4. Empower new consumption scenarios and business formats by fostering platforms for product launches and developing new retail formats [5].