光期研究 2 0 2 6年3月 橡 胶 策 略 报 告 2 0 2 6 年 3 月 1 光大证券 2020 年 半 年 度 业 绩 E V E R B R I G H T S E C U R I T I E S 橡胶：国内产区3月或正常开割，需求利好支撑胶价 p 2 | | 目 | 录 | | --- | --- | --- | | 1、价格：期货盘面宽幅震荡 | | | | 2、供应：天胶国外进入低产季 | | | | 3、需求：轮胎开工节后修复 | | | | 4、库存：天然橡胶库存中性 | | | | 5、持仓 | | | 1.2 价格：橡胶主力合约基差 p 3 1.1 价格：RU盘面月涨幅4.86%，NR盘面月涨幅4%，BR盘面月跌幅5.68% 图表：NR主力合约走势（单位：元/吨） 图表：沪胶主力价格（单位：元/吨） 图表：BR主力合约走势（单位：元/吨） 10000 12000 14000 16000 18000 20000 22000 24000 26000 28000 2025/01 2025/02 2025/03 2025/04 2025/05 2025/06 2025/07 2025/08 ...

2月11日，中国汽车工业协会发布2026年1月汽车行业运行数据。数据显示，1月汽车销售234.6万辆，环比下降28.3%，同比下降3.2%。其中，乘用车销售 198.8万辆，环比下降30.2%，同比下降6.8%。与上月相比，四大类乘用车品种销量均下降；与去年同期相比，SUV车型销量微增，其他三大类销量均下降。 另外，1月汽车出口延续良好增长态势，共出口68.1万辆，同比增长44.9%。其中，新能源汽车出口表现突出，出口30.2万辆，同比增长1倍，这主要得益于 新能源乘用车的增长。1月，新能源乘用车出口29.5万辆，同比增长1.1倍；新能源商用车出口0.6万辆，同比下降1.4%。 1月中国品牌乘用车市场占有率出现下降，本月共销售132.9万辆，同比下降8.9%，占乘用车销售总量的66.9%，该数值比去年同期降低1.5个百分点。 在主要外国品牌中，与上月相比，五大主要品牌销量均呈两位数下降；与去年同期相比，美系品牌销量实现两位数增长，其他四大主要品牌销量均有不同程 度下降。 从企业端来看，1月汽车销量排名前十位的企业（集团）共销售196.2万辆，占汽车销售总量的83.6%。在排名前十的企业中，与去年同期相比，上汽 ...

乘联分会秘书长崔东树提供的最新数据显示，2026年1月份，总体乘用车市场中，新车降价车型均价24.8万元，降价力度算术平均达到3.7万元。细分来 看，新能源车降价车型的均价为25.3万元，平均降价3.8万元，降幅为14.8%；常规燃油车降价车型均价为23.8万元，平均降价3.6万元，降幅达到15%。 从降价幅度来看，当月国内乘用车新车降价车型的总体降幅高达14.9%，环比上升2.5个百分点，同比上升0.4个百分点。 此轮开年降价潮的背后，新能源汽车购置税政策的调整是直接动因。 崔东树在分析中指出，面对新能源车车购税开始征收，2026年1月直接降价的车型大增，虚高的指导价回归，有利于消费者的交税成本合理化。他进一步 分析认为，2026年截至1月的降价车型总体较丰富，主要是豪华车的价格重新梳理。这意味着，高端市场正在经历一轮激烈的价格体系重塑。 7款降价的新能源车中，降价最多的是宝马I3纯电动车型，该车型在2026年的最低指导价为27.8万元，较此前的最低指导价降低了7.59万元，降幅21.4%。 降幅最大的也是宝马，其X1纯电动车型降了7.19万元，降幅24%。 10款降价的燃油车型中，宝马有4款降价。降价最多 ...

2026.02. 08 本文字数：1040，阅读时长大约2分钟 | | 乘用车新车降价的综 | 2020年 | 2021年 | 2022年 | 2023年 | 2024年 | 2025年 | 2025年 | 2026年 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 合降价 | | | | | 汇总 | 1月 | 汇总 | 1月 | | 新能 | 新车降价车型均价 | 15.4 | 23.0 | 21.0 | 21.5 | 18.8 | 13.7 | 19.5 | 25.3 | | 源 | 降价幅度 | 1.3 | 2.1 | 2.9 | 2.3 | 1.9 | 1.9 | 2.1 | 3.8 | | | 降价比例 | 8.7% | 9.2% | 13.8% | 10.8% | 10.0% | 14.2% | 11.0% | 14.8% | | 常规 | 新车降价车型均价 | 14.6 | 22.5 | 19.9 | 19.8 | 17.2 | 14.9 | 17.8 | 23.8 | | | 降价幅度 | 1.0 | 1 ...

1月车市降价幅度达到14.9%。 值得注意的是，这一波降价潮中，市场呈现出"油电同降"的现象。2026年1月共有17款新车降价，较同期增加9款。其中燃油车10款，较同期增加5款；增 程式混合动力1款，较同期多1款；纯电动车型6款，较同期增加3款。 乘联分会秘书长崔东树提供的最新数据显示，2026年1月份，总体乘用车市场中，新车降价车型均价24.8万元，降价力度算术平均达到3.7万元。细分来 看，新能源车降价车型的均价为25.3万元，平均降价3.8万元，降幅为14.8%；常规燃油车降价车型均价为23.8万元，平均降价3.6万元，降幅达到15%。 从降价幅度来看，当月国内乘用车新车降价车型的总体降幅高达14.9%，环比上升2.5个百分点，同比上升0.4个百分点。 1月份，无论是降价绝对金额还是降幅比例，2026年1月的数据均较2025年全年平均水平（降幅10.5%）有明显提升。 第一财经注意到，1月份的新能源车型降价幅度超过了过去6年（2020~2025）的年度平均水平。过往6年中，即使是在降价力度最高的2022年，年度平均 降价幅度也只有13.8%。 | | 乘用车新车降价的综 | 2020年 | 2021年 ...

Investment Rating - The report assigns an "Accumulate" rating for the automotive industry [22]. Core Insights - The report forecasts that the wholesale sales of passenger vehicles in China will reach 30.21 million units in 2026, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 1%. The sales of new energy passenger vehicles are expected to be approximately 16.85 million units, with a year-on-year growth of 10% [20][21]. - In December 2025, the wholesale sales of passenger vehicles in China were 2.814 million units, a decrease of 9% year-on-year and a decrease of 7% month-on-month. For the entire year of 2025, the wholesale sales reached 29.908 million units, an increase of 9% year-on-year [7][8]. Summary by Sections 1. Total Passenger Vehicle Sales - In December 2025, the total wholesale sales of passenger vehicles in China were 2.814 million units, down 9% year-on-year and down 7% month-on-month. The wholesale sales of new energy passenger vehicles were 156.3 thousand units, up 3% year-on-year and down 8% month-on-month. For the entire year of 2025, the wholesale sales of passenger vehicles were 29.908 million units, up 9% year-on-year, while new energy passenger vehicle sales reached 1.5319 million units, up 25% year-on-year [7][8]. 2. Key Automotive Companies' December Sales - **BYD**: In December, BYD delivered 420 thousand vehicles, down 18% year-on-year and down 12% month-on-month. The overseas sales reached 132 thousand units, up 130% year-on-year [8][9]. - **Geely**: In December, Geely delivered 237 thousand vehicles, up 13% year-on-year. The 2026 sales target is set at 3.45 million units, a 14% increase from 2025 [10]. - **Changan**: In December, Changan delivered 257 thousand vehicles, down 19% year-on-year. The 2026 sales target is 3.3 million units, a 13% increase from 2025 [12]. - **Great Wall Motors**: In December, Great Wall Motors delivered 124 thousand vehicles, down 8% year-on-year. The company launched the "Guiyuan Platform" globally [13][14]. - **Li Auto**: In December, Li Auto delivered 44 thousand vehicles, down 24% year-on-year. The OTA 8.2 version was fully pushed [15]. - **Leap Motor**: In December, Leap Motor delivered 60 thousand vehicles, up 42% year-on-year. The 2026 sales target is set at 1 million units [16][17]. - **Xpeng Motors**: In December, Xpeng Motors delivered 38 thousand vehicles, achieving double growth year-on-year and month-on-month. The 2025 total deliveries reached 429 thousand units, up 126% year-on-year [18][19]. 3. Policy Impact and Market Outlook - The report notes that the effectiveness of the old-for-new vehicle policy is expected to diminish, with a projected total of over 11.5 million vehicles replaced in 2025, of which nearly 60% are new energy vehicles. The new policy for 2026 will shift from fixed subsidies to a "proportional subsidy + cap" model [20]. - The report anticipates that the reduction in new energy vehicle purchase tax incentives will lead to a more competitive market, pushing the industry towards higher performance and efficiency standards [21].

Core Viewpoint - The current market is experiencing a significant decline in customer traffic and orders compared to the previous month, primarily due to the reduction of purchase tax subsidies and the lack of new government funding for 2026, leading to a cautious market sentiment [1][10]. Group 1: Market Conditions - Customer traffic and orders have sharply decreased, with many stores reporting single-digit order numbers and a general lack of high-intent customers [1][12]. - The New Year's holiday saw minimal customer engagement, with many potential buyers still in the consideration phase and not making decisive purchases [5][17]. - The introduction of new policies, such as a 12,000 yuan purchase tax subsidy, has not significantly improved the situation, as actual costs remain higher than last year [2][10]. Group 2: Consumer Behavior - Customers are exhibiting a strong wait-and-see attitude, largely influenced by the anticipation of new models and subsidy policies [4][19]. - Many customers who considered purchasing at the end of last year are now hesitant due to increased costs and the uncertainty surrounding new government incentives [8][10]. - The majority of customers are not in a hurry to buy, with many expressing a desire to wait for better deals or new model releases [9][15]. Group 3: Competitive Landscape - The market is seeing increased competition among electric vehicle brands, with some customers considering switching back to traditional fuel vehicles due to the new purchase tax on electric cars [10][19]. - Brands like Xiaopeng and Zeekr are gaining attention for their new models, but overall customer interest remains subdued [8][14]. - The introduction of new models and policies by competitors is expected to influence customer decisions, with many waiting for clearer signals from manufacturers [15][22].

Group 1: Market Dynamics - The competition among car manufacturers has intensified at the beginning of the year, with various promotional activities launched to attract consumers due to new policies like halving the new energy vehicle purchase tax and adjusting national subsidies [1][8] - Multiple car companies, including Tesla and Xiaomi, have introduced new financial policies and promotional offers to stimulate sales, indicating a proactive response to market dynamics [2][4] Group 2: Price Adjustments - BMW has adjusted the suggested retail prices of over 30 models, with the largest price drop being 301,000 yuan for the i7 M70L, reducing its price from 1,899,000 yuan to 1,598,000 yuan [2][3] - The price reduction for the iX1 eDrive25L is 24%, dropping from 299,900 yuan to 228,000 yuan, reflecting BMW's strategy to respond to market conditions [2] Group 3: Consumer Incentives - Tesla has launched a limited-time long-term purchase plan, offering low monthly payments for Model 3 and Model Y, with a down payment starting at 79,900 yuan and monthly payments as low as 1,918 yuan [4][5] - Xiaomi's new financial policy for the YU7 includes a 3-year interest-free option, with a down payment starting at 74,900 yuan and monthly payments from 4,961 yuan [5] Group 4: New Product Launches - Xiaomi has announced the new generation SU7, with a starting pre-sale price of 229,900 yuan, and plans to deliver the vehicle in April 2026 [6] - XPeng Motors is set to launch the new P7+ and G7 models, with the G7 achieving a comprehensive range of over 1,100 kilometers in cold conditions [7] Group 5: Policy Impact - The recent policy changes, including the adjustment of the new energy vehicle purchase tax from full exemption to a 50% reduction, are expected to increase consumer costs and influence purchasing decisions [3][8] - The government has introduced a 15,000 yuan subsidy for vehicle purchases completed before January 18, further incentivizing consumers [4]

Core Viewpoint - Multiple automakers are launching aggressive discount promotions to counter the impact of the new energy vehicle purchase tax adjustments set for 2026 [6] Group 1: Promotions and Discounts - Tesla China has introduced purchase incentives for the Model 3/Y/Y L, including a "7-year ultra-low interest" financing option with a minimum down payment of 79,900 yuan and monthly payments starting at 1,918 yuan [2] - GAC Group announced promotional activities for its self-owned brands, offering a maximum of 70,000 yuan in "government-enterprise subsidies" for models like GAC Trumpchi [2] - NIO's Firefly brand is providing benefits such as a 2,000 yuan purchase tax subsidy and rewards for repeat buyers [3] - Xiaomi is offering various promotions for its YU7 and SU7 Ultra models, including a 3-year interest-free option and a limited-time purchase benefit of 48,000 yuan [3] - BMW has initiated a broad price adjustment across 31 models, with the iX1 seeing a price drop from 299,900 yuan to 228,000 yuan, a reduction of 24% [3] - Volvo is promoting its new XC70 with a direct purchase tax subsidy of 14,000 yuan and additional purchase benefits [3] - Wuling Motors is providing full purchase tax subsidies for several new energy models, along with up to 8,000 yuan in trade-in subsidies and 5,000 yuan in limited-time financial interest subsidies [4] - Traditional automakers like Dongfeng, Chery, and FAW-Volkswagen are also rolling out new year discount promotions for select brands or models [5] Group 2: Market Outlook - The automotive industry anticipates that the increase in purchase tax for new energy vehicles will negatively impact sales, with predictions of a significant market decline in the first quarter of 2026 [6] - However, the early introduction of vehicle scrappage and trade-in subsidies has shifted industry sentiment to a more optimistic outlook, suggesting that the market may continue to grow in 2026 [7] - The China Automobile Dealers Association forecasts a strong start to January 2026, driven by pent-up demand from the end of 2025 and pre-holiday purchasing activity [7]

Group 1 - Multiple car manufacturers are launching price reduction promotions to respond to the impact of the new energy vehicle purchase tax [1][2] - Tesla China has introduced purchase incentives for Model 3/Y/Y L, including a "7-year ultra-low interest" financing plan with a minimum down payment of 79,900 yuan and monthly payments starting at 1,918 yuan [1] - GAC Group announced promotional activities for its self-owned brands, including limited-time purchase tax guarantees and additional subsidies for trade-ins or scrappage [1] - Xiaomi Auto is offering various promotions for its models YU7 and SU7 Ultra, with a "3-year 0% interest" option and a minimum down payment of 74,900 yuan [1] - BMW has initiated a significant official price adjustment for 31 models, with the highest reduction for the iX1, dropping from 299,900 yuan to 228,000 yuan, a decrease of 24% [1] - Volvo is promoting its new XC70 model with a limited-time offer that includes a direct purchase tax subsidy of 14,000 yuan [1] Group 2 - Wuling Motors announced full purchase tax subsidies for several new energy models, along with trade-in subsidies up to 8,000 yuan and limited-time financial interest subsidies up to 5,000 yuan [2] - Traditional car manufacturers such as Dongfeng, Chery, Deep Blue, FAW-Volkswagen, and GAC Toyota are also launching new year price reduction promotions for certain brands or models [2]