[Table_Main] 电车需求跟踪 8 月：以旧换新调整&购 置税提前购车共同博弈 Q4 需求 报告要点 月度关注：各地区以旧换新政策调整，将略微减弱需求，但购置税退坡将促进 提前购车，Q4 需求仍有博弈。自今年 6 月起全国各地由于资金使用完毕暂停 了以旧换新的申请，近期随着第三批资金下达，各地区均调整了以旧换新政 策，调整主要分为三类： 总量上，补贴资金存在缺口，无法支持全年以旧换新需求。2025H1 补贴申领 流程简单、政策拉动效果明显，导致补贴资金透支，上半年使用补贴资金 1620 亿元， 2025H2 剩余资金约 1380 亿元，可用资金不足全年额度的 50%。为 了保证政策贯穿全年，各地区调整了补贴申领方式。 结构上，资金季度分配忽略了汽车消费的季节性因素，Q4 资金缺口放大。10 月将下达 2025Q4 支持以旧换新的中央资金 690 亿元，资金额度与 Q 3 相同， 但汽车消费需求通常下半年强于上半年且 Q4 最为旺盛，Q3 和 Q4 资金额度 平分导致 Q4 资金缺口放大。 需求上，由于购置税退坡将促进提前购车，需求仍有博弈。截至 9 月 10 日， 2025 年汽车以旧换新申请量达到了 ...

Industry Overview - As of July 4, the price of battery-grade lithium carbonate is between 61,300 to 63,300 CNY per ton, with an average price of 62,300 CNY per ton, reflecting a week-on-week increase of 200 CNY per ton. Industrial-grade lithium carbonate is priced between 60,200 to 61,200 CNY per ton, with an average of 60,700 CNY per ton, also up by 200 CNY per ton week-on-week. The spot price of lithium carbonate continues to show a slight upward trend due to improved demand expectations for July and strong support from rigid demand [1] - The penetration rate of new energy vehicles (NEVs) in June is expected to reach a new high, with wholesale sales of NEV manufacturers estimated at 1.26 million units, a year-on-year increase of 29%. Cumulatively, from January to June, wholesale sales reached 6.47 million units, a year-on-year increase of 38% [6][5] - In May, the export value of automotive goods reached 20.67 billion USD, marking a year-on-year increase of 12.2%. The total import and export value of automotive goods for May was 25.06 billion USD, with imports valued at 4.38 billion USD and exports at 20.67 billion USD [5][6] Company Developments - XPeng Motors launched the new AI smart family SUV, XPeng G7, with a starting price of 195,800 CNY. The vehicle features advanced AI capabilities and is the world's first L3-level AI car, achieving 2250 TOPS of effective computing power [7] - GAC Group announced that its first model in collaboration with Huawei is expected to be launched in 2026, focusing on the high-end market segment priced around 300,000 CNY [8] - NIO's founder Li Bin stated that the company has achieved its strategic goal of self-developed chips, with the global first automotive-grade 5nm intelligent driving chip, Shenji NX9031, now being applied in several models [9] Policy and Market Trends - The Ministry of Commerce will enhance guidance on the export of used cars to promote healthy and orderly development in this sector. The export business for used cars was officially launched nationwide in February 2024 [4] - Jinan city has initiated its first round of automotive consumption subsidies for the second half of 2025, with a total subsidy amount of 12 million CNY available for individuals and enterprises purchasing non-operational passenger vehicles [4]

Core Viewpoint - The company reported strong financial performance for 2024 and Q1 2025, with significant growth in revenue and net profit, particularly in the new energy vehicle sector, indicating robust demand and operational efficiency [1][2][4]. Financial Performance - In 2024, the company achieved revenue of 1.42 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 34.1%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 187 million yuan, up 59.8% [1]. - For Q1 2025, revenue was 390 million yuan, reflecting a 45.0% year-on-year increase but a 14.3% quarter-on-quarter decline; net profit was 61 million yuan, up 125.8% year-on-year but down 9.3% quarter-on-quarter [1]. Business Segments - The new energy vehicle business saw a revenue increase of 50.5% in 2024, reaching 897 million yuan, with an estimated market share rise to 60-65% [2]. - The gross margin for the new energy vehicle segment improved to 39.8% in 2024, up 0.46 percentage points year-on-year, despite challenges from raw material price fluctuations [2]. - The wind and solar storage business experienced slower growth, with revenue increasing by only 1.0% to 349 million yuan in 2024, and a decline in gross margin by 3.7 percentage points to 41.1% [2]. Operational Efficiency - The company improved its expense ratio to 22.5% in 2024, a decrease of 4.1 percentage points year-on-year, contributing to a 44.0% increase in operating cash flow to 122 million yuan [3]. - The global manufacturing layout, including a new factory in Thailand, is expected to support overseas business growth and meet demand from electric vehicle customers in the US and Europe [3]. Profit Forecast and Valuation - The profit forecasts for 2025 and 2026 remain unchanged at 293 million yuan and 404 million yuan, respectively; the target price has been raised by 12% to 140 yuan, indicating a potential upside of 17.65% [4].