2025 年 11 月 25 日 小鹏汽车-W (09868) ——三季报符合预期，全面转型 AI 企业 报告原因：有业绩公布需要点评 买入（维持） | 市场数据： | 2025 年 11 月 25 日 | | --- | --- | | 收盘价（港币） | 81.60 | | 恒生中国企业指数 | 9158.31 | | 52 周最高/最低（港币） | 110.80/42.90 | | H 股市值（亿港币） | 1,558.37 | | 流通 H 股（百万股） | 1,909.24 | | 汇率（港币/人民币） | 0.9103 | 上 市 公 司 汽车 一年内股价与基准指数对比走势： -2% 48% 98% 148% 11/25 12/25 01/25 02/25 03/25 04/25 05/25 06/25 07/25 08/25 09/25 10/25 HSCEI 小鹏汽车-W 资料来源：Bloomberg 相关研究 证券分析师 樊夏沛 A0230523080004 fanxp@swsresearch.com 戴文杰 A0230522100006 daiwj@swsresearch.com 研究支持 ...

《小鹏汽车-W-09868.HK-深度报告：打造智能标签，剑指中高端市场》——20211222 《造车新势力系列之一——解析进阶赛的4个关键点》——20201029 点评： 《小鹏汽车-2025三季报点评：单三季度销量同比增长149%，打造物理AI未来出行全新范式》——20251124 《小鹏汽车-事件快评： 发布第二代VLA、Robotaxi、全新一代IRON、汇天飞行体系，打造物理AI未来出行全新范式 》—— 20251108 《小鹏汽车-2025中报点评：单二季度销量同比增长242%，小鹏G7、全新P7搭载图灵芯片上市》——20250908 《小鹏汽车-2025一季报点评： 一季度销量同比增长331%，MONA M03新版本上市1小时大定破万台 》——20250605 《小鹏汽车-2024年报点评： 单四季度销量环比增长97%，新品周期持续向上》——20250321 《小鹏汽车-2024三季报点评：单三季度毛利率同环比双升，新品周期持续向上》——20241122 《小鹏汽车-事件快评：小鹏新车型P7+上市当天订单超3万辆，新品周期持续向上》——20241111 《小鹏汽车-2024一季报点评：一季度毛利 ...

相较纯电版车型，新车不仅换装了增程系统，还对造型、车身长度及内饰舒适配置进行了差异化提升，起售价则比纯电版车型（35.98万元）降低5万元。 对此，何小鹏表示："增程车销量下滑是事实，但这可能是短期波动。另一种可能是，整个市场都在期待'超级增程'。不仅是我们，其他已推出增程产品的 公司也可能推出下一代产品。市场就像波浪，会有起有伏。" 11月20日晚间，小鹏X9鲲鹏超级增程版车型上市。新车推出Max和Ultra两个版本，售价分别为30.98万元起和32.98万元起。 图片来源：每经记者孙磊摄 据悉，这是小鹏汽车推出的首款增程车型。"企业如果要走向全球市场，还需要新的补能方式。同时，一辆车的续航想要达到1000公里以上，需要通过纯电 之外的动力形式来实现。"小鹏汽车董事长何小鹏告诉《每日经济新闻》记者，"从中国的混动汽车在不同城市、不同区域的分布地图来看，小鹏在很多区域 的销售是比较欠缺的，因为我们没有（推出）适合当地使用的车。所以，我相信无论是在中国还是在全球（市场），超级增程都会有非常大的使用场景。" 值得一提的是，与当下配备大容量电池和小容量油箱的主流增程车型有明显区别，小鹏X9鲲鹏超级增程版车型采用了" ...

具体来看，第三季度，小鹏实现营收203.8亿元，同比增长101.8%，其中汽车销售收入为180.5亿元，同比增长105.3%，占总收入的88.57%；服务及其他收 入为23.3亿元，同比增长78.1%。 低价车削弱盈利 凭借着MONA系列以及新车的表现，小鹏汽车（下称"小鹏"）交出了一份相对亮眼的三季报。 11月17日晚间，小鹏发布2025年三季报，单季营收实现翻倍增长，净亏损进一步收窄。董事长何小鹏明确表示，第四季度目标为实现公司盈亏平衡。 小鹏的营收增长主要靠销量拉动。 第三季度，小鹏累计交付11.6万辆，同比增长149.3%。其中，MONA M03作为交付主力，累计交付4.54万辆，占总交付量的39.14%；SUV车型G家族累计 交付3.09万辆，P系列达2.47万辆，小鹏X9为3391辆。此外，小鹏与大众的合作也持续为服务及其他收入增长提供助力。 吴迪/摄 不过，低价车型小鹏M03的销量快速提高，导致营收增速略慢于销量增速，也对整车毛利率产生一定影响。小鹏MONA M03起售价11.98万元，上市后月 销量占比常达四成，第三季度该占比为39.14%。 相较低价车型的快速走量，售价较高的SUV以及MPV ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article is that Xiaopeng Motors is transitioning from a new energy vehicle company to a physical AI enterprise, but faces significant challenges in achieving profitability and maintaining market competitiveness against established players like Tesla [3][5][6] - Xiaopeng's stock price experienced a decline of 2.81% on November 12, following a previous surge of approximately 29% over four trading days due to the Xiaopeng Technology Day event [2][3] - The company announced several key innovations at the Xiaopeng Technology Day, including the second-generation VLA architecture, Xiaopeng Robotaxi, and a new generation of IRON robots, with plans for mass production of high-level humanoid robots by 2026 [3][5][6] Group 2 - Despite a significant year-on-year increase in vehicle deliveries (190% growth), Xiaopeng's market valuation and sales figures still lag behind Tesla, which has achieved profitability since 2020 [5][9] - In October, Xiaopeng delivered 42,013 smart vehicles, setting a new monthly record, but the sales of some mid-range models have declined, indicating potential structural issues in its product lineup [6][7] - The company is focusing on high-end models, such as the Xiaopeng X9, which has seen a drop in sales but is being promoted with new technology solutions [7][10] Group 3 - Xiaopeng's research and development expenses are projected to reach approximately 100 billion yuan this year, with a significant portion allocated to software development [10][12] - The company is pursuing partnerships for its Robotaxi initiative, aiming to position itself as a technology supplier rather than a direct operator, which may help mitigate operational risks [16][20] - Xiaopeng's strategy includes leveraging its self-developed Turing chip and VLA model to attract external partnerships, with Volkswagen already identified as a strategic partner [13][14] Group 4 - The Robotaxi sector is highly competitive and characterized by long development cycles and challenging profitability, with Xiaopeng adopting a cautious approach compared to other players [18][19] - The company plans to utilize a pure vision solution for its Robotaxi, aiming to reduce costs and avoid reliance on expensive technologies like LIDAR [19][20] - Xiaopeng's ultimate goal is to create an open platform ecosystem to attract partners and share the costs of autonomous driving research and development [20]

Core Viewpoint - Xiaopeng Motors positions itself as a "physical AI world explorer for global embodied intelligence," focusing on the integration of AI technologies in its automotive and robotics products [4][5]. Group 1: Key Applications Released - Xiaopeng Motors unveiled four significant applications at the 2025 Technology Day: the second-generation VLA, Robotaxi, the new generation of IRON, and two flight systems, all with clear mass production plans [4][5]. - The second-generation VLA (Vision-Language-Action) system integrates visual perception and language understanding, enhancing the efficiency and responsiveness of autonomous driving [6][9]. - The Robotaxi will launch three models in 2026, utilizing a pure vision approach without relying on LiDAR or high-definition maps, achieving a computing power of 3,000 TOPS [12][13]. - The new generation of IRON is designed as a highly humanoid robot with 82 degrees of freedom, capable of complex movements and interactions [17][20]. Group 2: Technological Innovations - The second-generation VLA features a cloud-based model with 720 billion parameters, enabling rapid iteration and high processing power for complex tasks [9][10]. - The Robotaxi's dual-redundancy hardware architecture ensures safety, while its external interaction system enhances communication with pedestrians [13][16]. - The IRON robot employs a solid-state battery for improved safety and efficiency, alongside a proactive safety mechanism to protect users [21][23]. Group 3: Future Development Plans - Xiaopeng aims to achieve mass production of the IRON robot by the end of 2026, focusing on commercial applications in various sectors [23]. - The flight systems include the A868, designed for medium to long-distance travel, and the "land carrier," which has already received over 7,000 pre-orders [24][25]. - The company plans to collaborate with global partners to build a Robotaxi ecosystem, with Gaode as the first partner [16].

Core Viewpoint - Xiaopeng Motors reported a record monthly delivery of 42,013 vehicles in October 2025, marking a year-on-year increase of 75.7% and a month-on-month increase of 1.0% [1] Delivery Performance - In October 2025, the company delivered 42,013 new vehicles, achieving a year-on-year growth of 75.7% and a month-on-month growth of 1.0% [1] - Cumulative deliveries from January to October 2025 reached 355,000 vehicles, representing a year-on-year increase of 190.0% [1] Product Performance - The new P7 model's deliveries accelerated, and the main sales models continued to perform strongly, contributing to the high growth in sales [1] - The MONA M03 model delivered over 15,000 units in October, with cumulative production exceeding 200,000 units since its launch [1] - The SUV family (G6/G7/G9) sold over 10,000 units in October, with the G6 model achieving cumulative deliveries of over 65,000 units, a nearly 60% year-on-year increase [1] - Cumulative deliveries of the P7+ model surpassed 80,000 units by the end of October [1] Future Outlook - The next-generation extended-range product, the Xiaopeng X9 Super Extended Range version, is set to launch, featuring a unique combination of a 63.3-degree large battery and a 60L fuel tank, with a comprehensive range of 1,602 km [1] - The company expects to deliver between 113,000 and 118,000 vehicles in Q3 2025, representing a year-on-year growth of 142.8% to 153.6%, with projected revenue between 19.6 billion and 21 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 94.0% to 107.9% [1] International Expansion - In October, Xiaopeng made further breakthroughs in the European, Asian, and African markets, entering seven new markets including Lithuania, Latvia, Estonia, Cambodia, Morocco, Tunisia, and Qatar [1] - The company aims to shift from "rapid layout" to "solid operation" in new markets, focusing on building brand strength and local service networks [1] Financial Performance - The company anticipates achieving a quarterly profit in Q4 2025 and expects to generate positive free cash flow for the entire year [1] - Revenue for 2025 is projected to reach 83.1 billion yuan, corresponding to a price-to-sales ratio of 1.8X, with significant improvements in software revenue reflecting better financial performance [2]

Core Viewpoint - Xiaopeng Motors is transitioning from being solely an electric vehicle manufacturer to incorporating range-extended technology, starting with the launch of the Xiaopeng X9, which marks a significant shift in its product strategy [1][2]. Group 1: Entry into Range-Extended Vehicles - Xiaopeng X9 features enhancements in design, length, and interior compared to its pure electric version, with pre-sale prices starting at 350,000 yuan for the Max version, which is nearly 10,000 yuan lower than the pure electric model [2]. - The decision to enter the range-extended vehicle market was reached after five internal discussions, with the fifth attempt being successful, highlighting the challenges faced in the decision-making process [2][3]. - Industry insiders suggest that the initial reluctance to pursue range-extended technology stemmed from concerns about its maturity and the potential loss of advantages for traditional automakers [2][3]. Group 2: Technical Features and Innovations - The Xiaopeng X9 is equipped with a fast-charging lithium iron phosphate battery that meets new national standards, featuring a 24-hour fire and explosion prevention capability and a design life of 2000 cycles [4][5]. - The vehicle boasts a CLTC pure electric range of 452 kilometers and a comprehensive range of 1602 kilometers, with a rapid charging capability that allows for 70% charge in just 12 minutes [5]. - Xiaopeng's new 800V mixed silicon carbide drive system achieves a comprehensive efficiency of 93.5%, with a peak torque of 465 N·m and peak power of 210 kW, ensuring performance even at low battery levels [5]. Group 3: Market Position and Future Outlook - The introduction of range-extended models increases Xiaopeng's demand for batteries, necessitating strong supply chain management, especially with anticipated market shortages in 2025 [6]. - Xiaopeng is positioning itself as a "embodied intelligence company," moving beyond just electric vehicles to include robotics and AI technologies, with significant investments in these areas [7][8]. - The company aims to integrate hardware and software in its new generation of humanoid robots, with plans for mass production of flying cars and Robotaxis, indicating a diversified growth strategy [9][10].

Core Insights - The domestic electric vehicle market in China continues to thrive in October 2025, with new force brands showing remarkable performance and a shift in market dynamics [1] Delivery Performance - Leap Motor leads the new force delivery rankings with 70,289 vehicles delivered in October, marking an 84% year-on-year increase and setting a new monthly record for new force brands [2][3] - Hongmeng Zhixing follows closely with 68,216 vehicles delivered, achieving a historical monthly high and reaching a cumulative delivery of over 1 million units in just 43 months, the fastest among new force brands [2][5][7] - Xiaopeng Motors delivered 42,013 vehicles, also a historical high, with strong sales across its product matrix, including the P7+ and SUV family [2][9] - NIO achieved a significant milestone with 40,397 vehicles delivered, a 92.6% year-on-year increase, marking its third consecutive month of record deliveries [2][10][12] - Other brands like Deep Blue and Changan Qiyuan also reported substantial growth, with deliveries of 36,792 and 36,378 vehicles respectively, showcasing the effectiveness of their dual-brand strategy [2][14][15] Market Dynamics - The second-tier brands are emerging strongly, with a new benchmark of 30,000 vehicles set for this segment [10][17] - Li Auto's performance declined with 31,767 vehicles delivered, facing challenges in the competitive market [17] - Zeekr's sales reached 21,423 vehicles, driven by the launch of refreshed models [18] - Lantu's sales increased to 17,218 vehicles, reflecting a consistent upward trend and a diversified product matrix [20] - Avita and Zhiji also demonstrated stable growth with 13,506 and 13,159 vehicles delivered respectively, supported by new model launches [22] Competitive Landscape - The competition among brands is intensifying as they prepare for year-end sales, with head brands leveraging scale advantages while mid-tier brands may resort to discounts to capture market share [22] - The outcome of this competition will not only determine the rankings among new force brands but also influence their supply chain leverage and technological investment capabilities in 2026 [22]

Group 1 - The core focus of Xiaopeng Motors is on the development of L4-level autonomous vehicles, with the Robotaxi project officially restarted in late October 2023 to prepare for mass production in the second half of 2026 [2] - Xiaopeng Motors plans to upgrade its vehicle models starting from the G7 and P7, which will feature self-developed Turing AI chips with a computing power of 2250 TOPS, enhancing both intelligent driving and in-car experience [2] - The company aims to invest significantly in AI, with an expected annual R&D expenditure of 50 billion yuan, of which 30 billion yuan will be allocated to AI development [2] Group 2 - Xiaopeng Motors has seen a significant increase in sales, delivering 42,013 vehicles in October 2023, marking a 76% year-on-year growth and a historical monthly high [3] - Cumulatively, Xiaopeng Motors delivered 355,209 vehicles from January to October 2023, representing a 190% increase compared to the previous year [3] - The company is increasingly confident in achieving profitability in Q4 2023 due to the rising sales figures [3]