Lithium Carbonate Futures Market Data Change Analysis - **Main Contract and Basis**: On February 11, 2026, the price of the lithium carbonate main contract soared to 150,260 yuan/ton, up 12,920 yuan/ton or 9.41% from the previous trading day. The basis weakened significantly, dropping from 1,160 yuan/ton to -11,460 yuan/ton, indicating a deepening of the spot discount [1][43]. - **Open Interest and Trading Volume**: The open interest increased to 356,531 lots, up 10,542 lots or 3.05%. The trading volume expanded to 351,877 lots, up 56,646 lots or 19.19%, showing an increase in market activity [1][43]. *** Industry Chain Supply and Demand and Inventory Change Analysis - **Supply Side**: The supply side remained stable. On February 11, 2026, the price of spodumene concentrate was 14,155 yuan/ton, and that of lepidolite concentrate was 7,900 yuan/ton, both unchanged. The capacity utilization rate of lithium carbonate on February 6, 2026, remained at 87.14% [2][44]. - **Demand Side**: The demand side was weak. Although the prices of power-type ternary materials and lithium iron phosphate increased slightly to 174,600 yuan/ton and 50,620 yuan/ton respectively, according to the data of the Passenger Car Association from January 1 - 18, 2026, the retail sales of new energy vehicles decreased by 16% year - on - year, and the wholesale sales decreased by 23% year - on - year, indicating weak terminal demand. Downstream procurement was cautious as备货 was basically completed [2][44]. - **Inventory and Warehouse Receipts**: As of February 6, 2026, lithium carbonate inventory decreased to 105,463 physical tons, down 2,019 tons or 1.88% from the previous week. There was no clear data on warehouse receipts, but the weakening basis reflected pressure in the spot market [2][44]. *** Price Trend Judgment In the next one to two weeks, the price of lithium carbonate futures may maintain a volatile pattern or face slight downward pressure. The reasons include: although the futures price has risen significantly recently, the demand side is weak (new energy vehicle sales have declined), the spot market sentiment is cautious (logistics has suspended, procurement is completed, and trading is light), and the stable supply side is insufficient to support continuous price increases. The declining inventory provides some support, but the overall supply - demand situation is loose [45]. Summary: Overall, the market has risen in the short term driven by futures activity, but the fundamentals lack strong drivers, and the price is expected to enter a volatile adjustment phase [46].

Lithium Carbonate Futures Market Data Analysis - **Main contract and basis**: On January 27, 2026, the price of the lithium carbonate main contract was 165,680 yuan/ton, a slight decline of 3,100 yuan/ton or about 1.84% from the previous day. The basis strengthened from -11,020 yuan/ton on January 26, 2026, to 12,820 yuan/ton, an increase of 23,840 yuan/ton [1][31]. - **Open interest and trading volume**: The open interest of the main contract decreased to 416,719 lots, a decrease of 21,909 lots or about 5%. The trading volume increased to 575,675 lots, an increase of 232,870 lots or about 68% [1][32]. *** Analysis of Industrial Chain Supply, Demand, and Inventory Changes - **Supply side**: The prices of spodumene concentrate and lepidolite concentrate remained stable on January 27, 2026, at 19,470 yuan/ton and 8,700 yuan/ton, respectively. However, information indicated that lithium ore prices had increased slightly recently, and overseas mine quotes had risen. The smelter operating rate remained stable at 87.14%, but the reluctance to sell among upstream lithium salt producers had increased, and some manufacturers had hoarded goods, resulting in a weak willingness to sell spot orders. On January 16, 2026, Yahua Group announced the commissioning of its lithium mine project in Zimbabwe, which increased self - sufficiency, but the overall supply increase was limited [2]. - **Demand side**: The prices of downstream cathode materials generally declined. On January 27, 2026, the price of power ternary materials was 188,300 yuan/ton, a decrease of 2,000 yuan/ton from the previous day; the price of power lithium iron phosphate was 58,990 yuan/ton, a decrease of 2,185 yuan/ton. Although the prices of some battery cells had increased, the demand for new energy vehicles was weak. According to data from the Passenger Car Association on January 21, 2026, the retail sales from January 1 - 18 decreased by 16% year - on - year, and wholesale sales decreased by 23%. Downstream material manufacturers mainly purchased on demand, and some began to stock up for February, but overall purchases were cautious. Coupled with the cancellation of the export tax rebate policy, the demand side lacked support [2]. - **Inventory and warehouse receipts**: As of January 23, 2026, the lithium carbonate inventory was 108,896 physical tons, a slight decrease of 783 tons or 0.71% from 109,679 physical tons on January 16, 2026, continuing the de - stocking trend [2]. *** Price Trend Judgment In the next one to two weeks, the lithium carbonate futures price is expected to maintain a low - level volatile pattern. The weak demand persists, with the decline in new energy vehicle sales and cautious downstream purchases restricting the upside space. Meanwhile, although the supply side has support from reluctance to sell and inventory de - stocking, the stable lithium ore prices and high capacity utilization rate limit the rebound strength. The overall market may experience increased volatility under the weak supply - demand balance but lacks a breakthrough driver [3].

Core Viewpoint - Lithium carbonate continues its upward trend, with the main contract rising over 6% on Wednesday, approaching previous highs. The market remains concerned about low inventory levels amid supply disruptions and improving demand expectations in the overseas new energy vehicle market [3][8]. Supply Side - Weekly lithium carbonate production increased by 115 tons to 22,535 tons, with spodumene lithium rising by 35 tons to 13,959 tons, lepidolite production up by 20 tons to 2,956 tons, salt lake lithium extraction increasing by 40 tons to 3,185 tons, and recycled lithium rising by 20 tons to 2,435 tons [4][9]. - A forecast indicates that lithium carbonate production is expected to decrease by 1.2% to 97,970 tons in January 2026 [4][9]. Demand Side - In January 2026, the production of ternary materials is expected to decline by 5% to 78,180 tons, while lithium iron phosphate production is projected to decrease by 10% to 363,400 tons. The production of ternary power batteries is expected to drop by 6.15% to 28.7 GWh, and lithium iron power is forecasted to decline by 9.77% to 90.01 GWh. However, lithium iron energy storage is expected to increase by 0.99% to 63.15 GWh [4][9]. Inventory Situation - Weekly social inventory of lithium carbonate increased by 337 tons to 109,942 tons, with downstream inventory decreasing by 2,458 tons to 36,540 tons, while other segments increased by 2,080 tons to 55,020 tons, and upstream inventory rose by 715 tons to 18,382 tons [4][9]. Market Sentiment - The market sentiment is cautiously optimistic, with expectations of continued strong performance as long as demand does not show clear negative feedback. However, there are warnings about increased market volatility and potential supply disruptions, particularly from overseas and the Jiangxi region [4][10].