行业 碳酸锂期货日报 日期 2025 年 12 月 12 日 研究员：张平 021-60635734 zhangping@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3015713 021-60635729 yufeifei@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3025190 021-60635740 pengjinglin@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3075681 有色金属研究团队 研究员：余菲菲 研究员：彭婧霖 请阅读正文后的声明 ＃summary＃ 每日报告 一、 行情回顾与操作建议 图1：碳酸锂现货价及价差 图2：碳酸锂期货持仓量成交量 数据来源：Wind，建信期货研究发展部 碳酸锂期货上涨，总持仓增 22591 手至 106 万手，现货电碳涨 800 至 93500，贸 易市场现货贴水扩大至 2800，短期期货价格快速上涨但现货跟涨有限，本周碳酸 锂周度产量增 59 吨至 21998 吨，主要增量来自于锂辉石端，云母产碳酸锂量跌至 2876 吨，本周社库去库 2133 吨，去库量较前一周有所下滑，维持前期去库力度 将减弱判断，而且短期期货 ...

一、日度市场总结 碳酸锂期货市场数据变动分析 主力合约与基差 ：2025年12月10日，碳酸锂主力合约收于95980元/吨，上 涨3.43%；基差从-500元/吨走弱至-3680元/吨，变化-3180元。 持仓与成交 ：主力合约持仓量从12月9日的575421手增至605453手，增加 30032手，增幅5.22%，持仓量扩大；成交量从512215手增至620935手，增 加108720手，增幅21.23%，成交量显著扩大，反映市场活跃度提升。 产业链供需及库存变化分析 供给端 ：供给保持稳定增长，2025年12月5日碳酸锂产能利用率维持在 75.34%，与11月28日持平；锂辉石精矿市场价稳定在8930元/吨，锂云母精 矿市场价稳定在4990元/吨。资讯显示，部分新产线逐步投产，预计12月国 内碳酸锂产量环比增长约3%；同时，川能动力项目于2025年8月末达到年产 18万吨精矿设计产能，青海锦泰锂业技改项目旨在提升效率，强化供给端 弹性。 需求端 ：需求整体持稳但边际趋缓，2025年12月10日动力型三元材料价格 从144700元/吨微涨至144850元/吨，动力型磷酸铁锂价格从39095元/吨微 跌至39 ...

中信期货分析师王美丹认为，当前碳酸锂期货价格维持高位震荡，主要是得到了基本面的强支撑。在基 本面维持供需双强的态势下，碳酸锂市场供需紧平衡的核心格局尚未打破。 12月10日，碳酸锂期货震荡上行，主力合约LC2605报收于95980元/吨，上涨2.56%。 创元期货分析师余烁也认为，目前基本面供需双强是支撑价格上行的重要原因，但受下游需求转入淡季 的影响，基本面驱动力度已出现边际弱化，市场开始呈现"可上可下"的特征。 从基本面看，随着今年新投产项目的爬坡，碳酸锂供应增量开始扩大。据SMM数据，11月我国碳酸锂 总产量同比实现49%的大幅增长，再度突破历史新高，预计12月将持续处于高位。王美丹认为，伴随部 分新项目年底逐步投产，产量后续仍有提升的空间。从周度数据看，碳酸锂产量环比出现一定修复。据 SMM数据，截至12月4日当周，碳酸锂周度产量约2.19万吨，环比增加约74吨。 需求方面，新能源汽车累库明显。据乘联会数据，今年10月底，行业新能源车库存73万辆，环比增加11 万辆。今年11月，国内新能源乘用车产量175.7万辆，批发销量170.6万辆，零售132.1万辆，厂商出口 28.4万辆。这也意味着，今年11 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The current core contradiction affecting the price trend of lithium carbonate futures lies in the interaction between supply - side disturbances and the peak - season expectations on the demand side [2]. - The news of the resumption of production at Ningde era's Jianxiawo lithium mine has caused abnormal fluctuations in the lithium carbonate futures price, indicating the spread of irrational market sentiment [2]. - The social inventory of lithium carbonate has been decreasing for 4 consecutive weeks. Although the overall inventory is still at a historical high, the downstream inventory is in a healthy and safe range, showing the resilience of terminal demand [2]. - The demand side provides key support for the price. The "Golden September" peak - season expectation and the toughness of the terminal structure jointly lay the foundation for demand. The production schedule of downstream lithium - battery material enterprises is expected to increase by more than 5% month - on - month [4]. - Even if the Jianxiawo mine resumes production in November at the earliest, it will not affect the downstream demand for lithium carbonate during the "Golden September and Silver October" period. It is expected that the lithium carbonate futures price will probably show a wide - range oscillation pattern in the next month, with the overall oscillation range around 68,000 - 72,000 yuan/ton [4]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Price Interval Prediction - The strong resistance level of the lithium carbonate main contract is 76,000 yuan/ton, the current volatility (20 - day rolling) is 40.6%, and the historical percentile of the current volatility (3 - year) is 67.2% [2]. 3.2 Lithium - battery Enterprise Risk Management Strategy Suggestions 3.2.1 Purchase Management - **Product price has no correlation**: For enterprises with a plan to produce battery materials in the future and worried about the increase in the purchase cost of lithium carbonate, they can buy corresponding futures contracts (20% hedging ratio, recommended entry range: 67,000 - 70,000 yuan/ton) or sell put options (30% hedging ratio, LC2511 - P - 68000) [2]. - **Product price has correlation**: Enterprises can sell futures main contracts (70% hedging ratio, based on purchase cost) or buy put options and sell call options (50% hedging ratio, based on purchase cost) when purchasing lithium carbonate to lock in the value of goods; for those worried about the decrease in sales profit due to price decline when selling lithium carbonate, they can sell corresponding futures contracts (80% hedging ratio, based on sales profit) or buy put options and sell call options (40% hedging ratio, based on sales profit) [2]. 3.2.2 Sales Management - For enterprises purchasing lithium - containing raw materials to produce finished products, worried about the decrease in sales profit due to price decline when selling finished products, they can sell futures main contracts (80% hedging ratio, based on purchase cost) or buy put options and sell call options (60% hedging ratio, based on purchase cost) [2]. 3.2.3 Inventory Management - For enterprises with inventory of raw materials/lithium carbonate highly correlated with price and worried about inventory depreciation due to future price decline, they can sell futures main contracts (60% - 80% hedging ratio, 78,000 - 82,000 yuan/ton) or sell call options (40% - 60% hedging ratio, LC2511 - C - 79000) [2]. 3.3 Futures Data - **Lithium carbonate main contract**: The closing price is 70,720 yuan/ton, down 2,180 yuan (- 2.99%) daily and 1,160 yuan (- 1.61%) weekly; the trading volume is 751,480 lots, up 159,805 lots (27.01%) daily and 308,680 lots (69.71%) weekly; the open interest is 340,814 lots, down 10,526 lots (- 3.00%) daily and 5,234 lots (- 1.51%) weekly [10]. - **Lithium carbonate weighted contract**: The closing price is 70,827 yuan/ton, down 2,098 yuan (- 2.88%) daily and 1,082 yuan (- 1.51%) weekly; the trading volume is 1,063,402 lots, up 268,464 lots (33.77%) daily and 467,948 lots (78.59%) weekly; the open interest is 796,180 lots, down 10,197 lots (- 1.26%) daily and up 32,227 lots (4.22%) weekly [10]. 3.4 Spot Data 3.4.1 Lithium Ore Daily Quotes - The average price of lithium mica (Li2O: 2 - 2.5%) is 1,815 yuan/ton, down 50 yuan (- 2.68%) daily and 70 yuan (- 3.71%) weekly [21]. - The average price of lithium spodumene (Li2O: 3 - 4%) is 3,130 yuan/ton, down 135 yuan (- 4.13%) daily and 210 yuan (- 6.29%) weekly [21]. 3.4.2 Lithium Carbonate/Hydroxide Daily Quotes - The average price of industrial - grade lithium carbonate is 71,200 yuan/ton, down 1,150 yuan (- 1.59%) daily and 2,400 yuan (- 3.26%) weekly [24]. - The average price of battery - grade lithium carbonate is 73,450 yuan/ton, down 1,150 yuan (- 1.54%) daily and 2,450 yuan (- 3.23%) weekly [24]. 3.4.3 Downstream Daily Quotes - The average price of lithium iron phosphate (power - type) is 33,620 yuan/ton, down 275 yuan (- 0.81%) daily [29]. - The average price of lithium manganese iron phosphate is 44,850 yuan/ton, down 200 yuan (- 0.44%) daily [30]. 3.5 Basis and Warehouse Receipt Data - **Lithium carbonate brand basis quotes**: For example, the basis quote of Shengxin Lithium Energy (LI2CO3≥99.8%, LC2507) is 100 yuan, with no daily change [32]. - **Lithium carbonate warehouse receipt quantity**: The total warehouse receipt quantity is 38,101 lots, with no daily change [35]. 3.6 Cost and Profit No specific summary data provided in the text for cost and profit other than the presentation of relevant charts.

Report Overview - Report Name: Nanhua Futures Lithium Carbonate Enterprise Risk Management Daily Report - Date: September 1, 2025 - Analysts: Xia Yingying, Yu Weihang 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - In September, the lithium carbonate futures price is likely to show a wide - range oscillation pattern, with the price fluctuating based on the game between "supply disturbance intensity" and "demand fulfillment degree" [3][4]. - The core contradiction affecting the lithium carbonate futures price is the interaction between supply - side disturbances and demand - side peak - season expectations. Supply - side disturbances are the leading factor for the current futures price rebound, while the demand side provides key support [3]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Price Interval Prediction - For the lithium carbonate main contract, the strong resistance level is 90,000 yuan/ton. The current volatility (20 - day rolling) is 42.2%, and the historical percentile of the current volatility (3 - year) is 73.5% [2]. 3.2 Lithium Carbonate Enterprise Risk Management Strategy Recommendations Inventory Management - To prevent inventory impairment, 60% of the strategy is to short lithium carbonate futures (LC2511) according to inventory. 40% is to sell call options (over - the - counter/on - exchange options), and also buy out - of - the - money put options (on - exchange/over - the - counter options) [2]. Procurement Management - To prevent future price increases, 10% of the strategy is to buy far - month lithium carbonate contracts according to the procurement plan. 20% is to sell put options (on - exchange/over - the - counter options), and also buy out - of - the - money call options (on - exchange/over - the - counter options) [2]. 3.3 Core Contradiction Analysis Supply - side - Supply - side disturbances are the main reason for the futures price rebound. Market concerns about mining license issues and environmental protection in Jiangxi lithium mines may lead to production suspension, increasing supply uncertainty. A price - driven chain of "price increase - capacity release - ore consumption increase - ore price increase" is formed, and future enterprise开工率 is expected to rise, potentially causing temporary lithium ore shortages and pushing up the lithium salt price [3]. Demand - side - The peak - season expectation of "Golden September" and the resilience of the terminal structure support the demand. Downstream lithium - battery material enterprises' production is expected to increase by over 5% month - on - month. The demand from new - energy commercial vehicles and energy - storage fields offsets the weakening demand from new - energy passenger cars, maintaining the growth of lithium - salt demand [3]. 3.4 Futures Data Price and Volume Changes - The closing price of the lithium carbonate main contract is 75,560 yuan/ton, down 1,620 yuan (- 2.10%) daily and 3,820 yuan (- 4.81%) weekly. The trading volume is 540,295 lots, up 50,237 lots (10.25%) daily but down 86,621 lots (- 13.82%) weekly. The open interest is 339,133 lots, down 7,472 lots (- 2.16%) daily and 29,534 lots (- 8.01%) weekly [9]. Month - to - Month Spread Changes - LC11 - 12 is 140 yuan, down 120 yuan (- 46%) daily and 200 yuan (- 59%) weekly. LC11 - 01 is 340 yuan, down 200 yuan (- 37%) daily and 340 yuan (- 50%) weekly [14]. 3.5 Spot Data Lithium Ore - The average price of lithium mica (Li2O: 2 - 2.5%) is 1,950 yuan/ton, down 25 yuan (- 1.27%) daily and 45 yuan (- 2.26%) weekly. Other lithium ore prices also show different degrees of decline [19]. Carbonate and Hydroxide - The average price of industrial - grade lithium carbonate is 76,050 yuan/ton, down 1,300 yuan (- 1.68%) daily and 4,150 yuan (- 5.17%) weekly. Other related products also have price changes [22]. Downstream Products - The prices of downstream products such as lithium iron phosphate and ternary materials also show different degrees of decline or stability [27][28]. 3.6 Basis and Warehouse Receipt Data Basis - The basis of lithium carbonate main continuous contract and brand - based basis quotes are provided. For example, the basis quotes of some well - known lithium enterprises such as Tianqi Lithium and Ganfeng Lithium are stable [30]. Warehouse Receipts - The total number of lithium carbonate warehouse receipts is 29,887 lots, an increase of 930 lots compared to yesterday. Different warehouses have different changes in warehouse receipt quantities [33]. 3.7 Cost and Profit - No specific numerical analysis of cost and profit is provided in the summary part, but there are charts showing lithium carbonate production profit from purchased lithium ore, import profit, and theoretical delivery profit [34][36].

Report Industry Investment Rating There is no information provided regarding the report industry investment rating in the given content. Core Viewpoints - Currently, the lithium ore, lithium salt, and cell markets are under significant inventory pressure, and the pattern of medium - to long - term supply - demand imbalance has not been substantially alleviated. There are two short - term logics in the market: a negative feedback cycle of "lithium salt price drop - ore price decline - lithium salt price drop again" and a stepped - up price increase chain of "futures price increase - capacity release - increased ore consumption - ore price increase". The cost reduction also drives the decline of lithium carbonate prices. The futures market in the second half of the year is expected to have two stages: prices will fluctuate upward in early Q3 and decline in Q4 [3][4]. - In the short term, the market is generally strong due to macro - sentiment and supply - side disturbances. In the long - term, as lithium salt prices rise, corporate profits will increase, and the future operating rate is expected to rise [5]. Summary by Directory 1. Weekly Summary 1.1 Market Review - This week, lithium carbonate futures fluctuated and declined. The closing price of the weighted index contract on Friday was 69,250 yuan/ton, with a weekly decline of 12.98%. The trading volume was 857,282 lots, a week - on - week decrease of 49.72%. The open interest was 696,107 lots, a week - on - week decrease of 212,071 lots. The LC2509 - LC2511 contract spread changed to contango structure. The number of warehouse receipts on the GME was 6,605 lots, a week - on - week decrease of 5,391 lots [1]. 1.2 Industry Performance - **Supply**: This week, the price of lithium ore turned down, with an average decline of about 13%. The price decline of the lithium salt market was smaller than that of the ore. The price of lithium carbonate decreased by about 2%, while that of lithium hydroxide increased. The basis quotes of traders remained stable. The weekly operating rate of sample lithium salt factories decreased by 7.86% week - on - week, and the lithium carbonate output decreased by 7.31% week - on - week [1]. - **Demand**: This week, the price decline of downstream material factories was relatively small. The price of lithium iron phosphate series decreased by about 2%, and that of ternary material series increased by about 1%. The price of the electrolyte remained stable. The operating rate of lithium iron phosphate decreased, and the output decreased slightly. The output of ternary materials increased week - on - week, the output of lithium manganate increased slightly, and the output of cobalt - acid lithium enterprises decreased week - on - week [2]. - **Terminal**: The price of the cell market remained stable. This month, the cell output increased month - on - month, while the output of power cells decreased month - on - month [3]. - **Inventory**: This week, the domestic lithium ore inventory decreased week - on - week, the lithium carbonate inventory decreased by 1.01% week - on - week, the lithium iron phosphate inventory increased week - on - week, the ternary material inventory decreased week - on - week, the lithium manganate inventory remained unchanged week - on - week, and the cobalt - acid lithium inventory increased week - on - week [3]. 1.3 Core Logic - There are two short - term logics in the market: a negative feedback cycle of "lithium salt price drop - ore price decline - lithium salt price drop again" and a stepped - up price increase chain of "futures price increase - capacity release - increased ore consumption - ore price increase". The cost reduction also drives the decline of lithium carbonate prices. The futures market in the second half of the year is expected to have two stages: prices will fluctuate upward in early Q3 and decline in Q4 [3][4]. 1.4 Nanhua's Viewpoint - In the short term, the market is generally strong due to macro - sentiment and supply - side disturbances. In the long - term, as lithium salt prices rise, corporate profits will increase, and the future operating rate is expected to rise [5]. 1.5 Bullish Interpretation - As the prices of lithium ore and lithium salt continue to decline, the probability of supply - side disturbances is increasing; the situation of high open interest and low warehouse receipts is being traded in the market; and the production schedule on the demand side has increased more than expected [6]. 1.6 Bearish Interpretation - There are still many future production expectations for lithium ore, and high inventory suppresses ore prices. If ore prices further decline, it will drag down the cost of lithium carbonate; the inventory of lithium ore and lithium salt is high and still in an accumulation trend; and industrial technology upgrades have postponed the elimination of high - cost production capacity [7]. 2. Price and Spread - The prices of lithium ore, lithium salt, downstream materials, and terminal products in the lithium - battery industry chain this week showed different trends. The prices of most lithium ore varieties decreased, the price of lithium carbonate decreased slightly, the price of lithium hydroxide increased, the price of downstream lithium iron phosphate decreased slightly, the price of ternary materials increased slightly, and the price of the electrolyte remained stable [8][9]. 3. Lithium Ore 3.1 Import - There are data on the total monthly import volume of lithium concentrate, the import volume by country, and their seasonal trends, but specific numerical analysis is not provided in the summary [15]. 3.2 Output - There are data on the seasonal output of Chinese sample spodumene mines and lithium mica mines, but specific numerical analysis is not provided in the summary [17]. 3.3 Inventory - There are data on Chinese lithium ore inventory, including total inventory, warehouse inventory, and trader inventory, as well as the seasonal inventory of lithium salt factories, but specific numerical analysis is not provided in the summary [19]. 4. Supply 4.1 Operating Rate - The weekly operating rate of sample lithium carbonate enterprises decreased by 7.86% week - on - week. The operating rate of lithium spodumene enterprises increased by 14.67%, while that of lithium mica enterprises decreased by 37.83%, that of salt - lake enterprises decreased by 28.62%, and that of recycling material enterprises decreased by 4.06% [28]. 4.2 Output - The weekly total output of sample lithium carbonate enterprises decreased by 7.31% week - on - week. The output of lithium carbonate produced from lithium spodumene increased by 14.68%, while that from lithium mica decreased by 36.2%, that from salt - lake materials decreased by 28.63%, and that from recycling materials decreased by 4.1% [36]. 4.3 Import - There are data on the total monthly import volume of lithium carbonate, the import volume by country, and their seasonal trends, but specific numerical analysis is not provided in the summary [37][39]. 4.4 Inventory - The weekly total inventory of lithium carbonate decreased by 1.01% week - on - week. The inventory of smelters decreased by 6.19%, the downstream inventory increased by 7.18%, and other inventories decreased by 2.42% [46]. 4.5 Profit - There are data on the production profit of purchasing lithium ore, the import profit of lithium carbonate, and the theoretical delivery profit, but specific numerical analysis is not provided in the summary [48][51]. 5. Demand 5.1 Operating Rate - There are data on the operating rates of lithium iron phosphate, ternary materials, lithium manganate, cobalt - acid lithium, and electrolyte, but specific numerical analysis is not provided in the summary [53][55]. 5.2 Output - There are data on the weekly output of lithium iron phosphate, ternary materials, lithium manganate, cobalt - acid lithium, and electrolyte, but specific numerical analysis is not provided in the summary [57][60]. 5.3 Inventory - There are data on the total inventory of the lithium iron phosphate, ternary materials, lithium manganate, and cobalt - acid lithium industries, but specific numerical analysis is not provided in the summary [62][64]. 5.4 Profit - There are data on the profits of lithium iron phosphate, ternary materials, lithium manganate, and cobalt - acid lithium, as well as the theoretical cost of lithium iron phosphate electrolyte, but specific numerical analysis is not provided in the summary [66][67]. 6. Terminal Cells 6.1 Output - There are data on the output of SMM lithium batteries by type, the output of power cells by type, and the output of energy - storage cells, but specific numerical analysis is not provided in the summary [69]. 6.2 Installation Volume - There are data on the seasonal installation volumes of Chinese lithium batteries, LFP batteries, and NCM batteries, but specific numerical analysis is not provided in the summary [72][73]. 6.3 Cell Inventory - There are data on Chinese lithium battery inventory by type, the seasonal inventory of power cells by type, but specific numerical analysis is not provided in the summary [75][77].