热点降温后回归基本面，碳酸锂短期或需消化溢价 一、日度市场总结 碳酸锂期货市场数据变动分析 主力合约与基差 ：2026年03月02日，碳酸锂主力合约价格小幅回落至 172020元/吨，较前一交易日下跌4020元，跌幅2.28%；基差走强至-1220 元/吨，较前值提升4020元，贴水收窄反映现货支撑增强。 持仓与成交 ：主力合约持仓量收缩至378336手，减少3216手，降幅 0.84%；成交量收缩至227061手，减少54919手，降幅19.48%，市场活跃度 减弱，观望情绪上升。 未来一到两周，碳酸锂期货价格预计维持低位震荡格局。原因在于：供给 端稳定，产能利用率持平和原料成本无变化限制下行空间；库存持续去化 支撑价格底部，但需求端新能源车销量增长不均衡且宏观风险（如中东冲 突引发的油价波动和不确定性）抑制下游采购意愿，导致市场成交收缩和 持仓谨慎。总结来看，价格可能企稳于当前区间，波动性收窄，投资者需 关注地缘事件对供应链韧性的潜在影响。 通惠期货研发部 李英杰 产业链供需及库存变化分析 供给端 ：截至2月27日，碳酸锂产能利用率维持稳定在85.72%，锂辉石精 矿和锂云母精矿价格分别持稳于18010元 ...

Lithium Carbonate Futures Market Data Change Analysis - **Main Contract and Basis**: On February 11, 2026, the price of the lithium carbonate main contract soared to 150,260 yuan/ton, up 12,920 yuan/ton or 9.41% from the previous trading day. The basis weakened significantly, dropping from 1,160 yuan/ton to -11,460 yuan/ton, indicating a deepening of the spot discount [1][43]. - **Open Interest and Trading Volume**: The open interest increased to 356,531 lots, up 10,542 lots or 3.05%. The trading volume expanded to 351,877 lots, up 56,646 lots or 19.19%, showing an increase in market activity [1][43]. *** Industry Chain Supply and Demand and Inventory Change Analysis - **Supply Side**: The supply side remained stable. On February 11, 2026, the price of spodumene concentrate was 14,155 yuan/ton, and that of lepidolite concentrate was 7,900 yuan/ton, both unchanged. The capacity utilization rate of lithium carbonate on February 6, 2026, remained at 87.14% [2][44]. - **Demand Side**: The demand side was weak. Although the prices of power-type ternary materials and lithium iron phosphate increased slightly to 174,600 yuan/ton and 50,620 yuan/ton respectively, according to the data of the Passenger Car Association from January 1 - 18, 2026, the retail sales of new energy vehicles decreased by 16% year - on - year, and the wholesale sales decreased by 23% year - on - year, indicating weak terminal demand. Downstream procurement was cautious as备货 was basically completed [2][44]. - **Inventory and Warehouse Receipts**: As of February 6, 2026, lithium carbonate inventory decreased to 105,463 physical tons, down 2,019 tons or 1.88% from the previous week. There was no clear data on warehouse receipts, but the weakening basis reflected pressure in the spot market [2][44]. *** Price Trend Judgment In the next one to two weeks, the price of lithium carbonate futures may maintain a volatile pattern or face slight downward pressure. The reasons include: although the futures price has risen significantly recently, the demand side is weak (new energy vehicle sales have declined), the spot market sentiment is cautious (logistics has suspended, procurement is completed, and trading is light), and the stable supply side is insufficient to support continuous price increases. The declining inventory provides some support, but the overall supply - demand situation is loose [45]. Summary: Overall, the market has risen in the short term driven by futures activity, but the fundamentals lack strong drivers, and the price is expected to enter a volatile adjustment phase [46].

Lithium Carbonate Futures Market Data Analysis - **Main contract and basis**: On January 27, 2026, the price of the lithium carbonate main contract was 165,680 yuan/ton, a slight decline of 3,100 yuan/ton or about 1.84% from the previous day. The basis strengthened from -11,020 yuan/ton on January 26, 2026, to 12,820 yuan/ton, an increase of 23,840 yuan/ton [1][31]. - **Open interest and trading volume**: The open interest of the main contract decreased to 416,719 lots, a decrease of 21,909 lots or about 5%. The trading volume increased to 575,675 lots, an increase of 232,870 lots or about 68% [1][32]. *** Analysis of Industrial Chain Supply, Demand, and Inventory Changes - **Supply side**: The prices of spodumene concentrate and lepidolite concentrate remained stable on January 27, 2026, at 19,470 yuan/ton and 8,700 yuan/ton, respectively. However, information indicated that lithium ore prices had increased slightly recently, and overseas mine quotes had risen. The smelter operating rate remained stable at 87.14%, but the reluctance to sell among upstream lithium salt producers had increased, and some manufacturers had hoarded goods, resulting in a weak willingness to sell spot orders. On January 16, 2026, Yahua Group announced the commissioning of its lithium mine project in Zimbabwe, which increased self - sufficiency, but the overall supply increase was limited [2]. - **Demand side**: The prices of downstream cathode materials generally declined. On January 27, 2026, the price of power ternary materials was 188,300 yuan/ton, a decrease of 2,000 yuan/ton from the previous day; the price of power lithium iron phosphate was 58,990 yuan/ton, a decrease of 2,185 yuan/ton. Although the prices of some battery cells had increased, the demand for new energy vehicles was weak. According to data from the Passenger Car Association on January 21, 2026, the retail sales from January 1 - 18 decreased by 16% year - on - year, and wholesale sales decreased by 23%. Downstream material manufacturers mainly purchased on demand, and some began to stock up for February, but overall purchases were cautious. Coupled with the cancellation of the export tax rebate policy, the demand side lacked support [2]. - **Inventory and warehouse receipts**: As of January 23, 2026, the lithium carbonate inventory was 108,896 physical tons, a slight decrease of 783 tons or 0.71% from 109,679 physical tons on January 16, 2026, continuing the de - stocking trend [2]. *** Price Trend Judgment In the next one to two weeks, the lithium carbonate futures price is expected to maintain a low - level volatile pattern. The weak demand persists, with the decline in new energy vehicle sales and cautious downstream purchases restricting the upside space. Meanwhile, although the supply side has support from reluctance to sell and inventory de - stocking, the stable lithium ore prices and high capacity utilization rate limit the rebound strength. The overall market may experience increased volatility under the weak supply - demand balance but lacks a breakthrough driver [3].

Lithium Carbonate Futures Market Data Change Analysis - **Main Contract and Basis**: The price of the main lithium carbonate contract dropped from 181,520 yuan/ton on January 23, 2026, to 165,680 yuan/ton on January 26, 2026, a decline of 8.73%, showing a slight pullback. The basis strengthened from -11,020 yuan/ton to 12,820 yuan/ton, with a change rate of 216.33%, indicating a significant strengthening of the basis [39]. - **Open Interest and Trading Volume**: The open interest decreased from 438,728 lots to 416,719 lots, a reduction of 5.02%, showing a contraction in open interest. The trading volume increased from 342,805 lots to 575,675 lots, a growth of 67.93%, indicating a significant expansion of trading volume [39]. Industry Chain Supply, Demand, and Inventory Change Analysis - **Supply Side**: According to information, the lithium ore project of Yahua Group (January 16) has improved self - sufficiency; Sigma Lithium (January 23) sold lithium ore and denied operational issues. The price of spodumene concentrate rose from 17,985 yuan/ton to 19,470 yuan/ton (8.26%), and the price of lepidolite concentrate rose from 8,500 yuan/ton to 8,700 yuan/ton (2.35%), indicating an increase in raw material costs. The production capacity utilization rate of lithium carbonate remained stable at 87.14% [40]. - **Demand Side**: The data from the Passenger Car Association (January 21) showed a year - on - year decline in new energy vehicle sales, indicating weak demand. However, the prices of downstream products such as power ternary materials (from 186,300 yuan/ton to 190,300 yuan/ton, up 2.15%) and power lithium iron phosphate (from 58,630 yuan/ton to 61,175 yuan/ton, up 4.34%) increased, and the prices of battery cells generally rose, indicating demand support. Information mentioned that the cost of energy - storage battery cells increased, with price transmission lagging, and downstream resistance to high prices. In new energy vehicle exports, PHEV growth was faster than BEV, reflecting a change in demand structure [40]. - **Inventory and Warehouse Receipts**: The lithium carbonate inventory decreased from 109,679 physical tons to 108,896 physical tons (a change of - 783 tons, - 0.71%), showing a slight decline in inventory. Warehouse receipt data was not directly provided, but the inventory reduction implied supply tightness or increased demand [40]. Price Trend Judgment Based on the rising supply cost, demand - side support, and decreasing inventory, it is expected that the lithium carbonate futures price will maintain a low - level oscillation pattern in the next one to two weeks, with a possibility of a slight rebound, but attention should be paid to demand changes and macro factors [43].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core View of the Report On January 20, 2026, the lithium carbonate futures price rose, with the main contract 2605 closing at 160,500 yuan/ton, up 8.99% from the previous settlement price. The price increase was driven by supply - side interference expectations in the lithium ore market and continued demand for export tax - rebate - driven downstream enterprises. The overall market trading was active, and some enterprises replenished their stocks. The short - term price is expected to fluctuate widely between 140,000 and 170,000 yuan/ton, with an increasing risk of correction [1][3]. Summary by Related Catalogs Market Analysis - On January 20, 2026, the lithium carbonate main contract 2605 opened at 149,500 yuan/ton and closed at 160,500 yuan/ton, with a daily closing price change of 8.99% compared to the previous settlement price. The trading volume was 451,074 lots, and the open interest was 415,351 lots, compared to 411,331 lots in the previous trading day. The current basis was - 320 yuan/ton (average price of electric carbon - futures). The number of lithium carbonate warehouse receipts was 27,681 lots, a change of - 17 lots from the previous trading day [1]. - According to SMM data, the price of battery - grade lithium carbonate was quoted at 149,000 - 156,000 yuan/ton, a change of 1,500 yuan/ton from the previous trading day, and the price of industrial - grade lithium carbonate was quoted at 145,000 - 153,000 yuan/ton, also a change of 1,500 yuan/ton from the previous trading day. The price of 6% lithium concentrate was 2,060 US dollars/ton, a change of 20 US dollars/ton from the previous day [1]. - The price increase was due to the expected interference in the lithium ore supply side, the postponed resumption of production in Yichun's lithium mica mines, and the continued enthusiasm for export among downstream enterprises due to the export tax - rebate adjustment policy. Some enterprises replenished their stocks after the price correction, and the overall market trading was active [1]. Inventory Analysis - According to SMM statistics, the spot inventory was 109,679 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 263 tons. Among them, the smelter inventory was 19,727 tons, a month - on - month increase of 1,345 tons; the downstream inventory was 35,652 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 888 tons; and other inventories were 54,300 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 720 tons. Downstream replenishment demand is expected to be gradually released [2]. Strategy - In the short term, the lithium carbonate price is likely to fluctuate widely between 140,000 and 170,000 yuan/ton, with an increasing risk of correction and a possible decline to the support level of 140,000 - 150,000 yuan/ton. The export tax - rebate bonus will support demand before April, but from late January to February, there will be an overlap of upstream maintenance and the traditional downstream off - season, and demand may weaken marginally. Inventory changes will be the key indicator [3]. - For unilateral trading, short - term range operation is recommended, and sell - hedging can be carried out at high prices. There are no strategies for options, inter - period, inter - variety, and spot - futures trading [3][4].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The lithium carbonate futures price is expected to fluctuate. Although the short - term futures price has risen rapidly, the spot price has limited follow - up. The weekly production of lithium carbonate has increased, the social inventory has been reduced but the de - stocking intensity is expected to weaken, and the futures price is supported by the spot price below [11] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1行情回顾与操作建议 (Market Review and Operation Suggestions) - The lithium carbonate futures price increased, and the total open interest rose by 22,591 lots to 1.06 million lots. The spot price of electric carbon increased by 800 to 93,500, and the spot discount in the trading market widened to 2,800. The weekly production of lithium carbonate increased by 59 tons to 21,998 tons, mainly from the lithium spodumene end. The production of lithium carbonate from mica dropped to 2,876 tons. The social inventory decreased by 2,133 tons, and the de - stocking volume declined compared with the previous week [11] 3.2行业要闻 (Industry News) - The US lithium miner Albemarle's direct lithium extraction (DLE) pilot plant in Chile has completed verification, with a lithium recovery rate of over 94% during stable operation, a water reuse rate of up to 85%, and an operation time of over 3,000 hours. The company allocated $30 million for the pilot plant and an additional $216 million for the salt recovery plant at the Atacama salt flat [12] - Domestic lithium battery manufacturers are adjusting prices. Degjia Energy will raise the prices of its battery products by 15% from December 16 due to rising raw material costs. Fuen Technology is communicating with customers about price increases, and some products have already seen price hikes. The industry is experiencing a wave of orders centered on "locking in volume", with tight production capacity and rising prices. Chinese lithium - battery companies are expected to increase their global industrial influence [12][13]

I. Market Data Change Analysis 1. Main Contract and Basis On December 10, 2025, the lithium carbonate main contract closed at 95,980 yuan/ton, up 3,180 yuan or 3.43% from 92,800 yuan/ton on December 9 The basis weakened from -500 yuan/ton to -3,680 yuan/ton, a change of -3,180 yuan [1][6][40]. 2. Position and Trading Volume The position of the main contract increased from 575,421 lots on December 9 to 605,453 lots on December 10, an increase of 30,032 lots or 5.22% The trading volume increased from 512,215 lots to 620,935 lots, an increase of 108,720 lots or 21.23%, indicating a significant increase in market activity [1][6][40]. II. Industry Chain Supply, Demand, and Inventory Analysis 1. Supply Side As of December 5, 2025, the lithium carbonate capacity utilization rate remained stable at 75.34%, the same as on November 28 The market prices of spodumene concentrate and lepidolite concentrate were stable at 8,930 yuan/ton and 4,990 yuan/ton respectively Some new production lines are gradually being put into operation, and it is expected that the domestic lithium carbonate production in December will increase by about 3% month-on-month The Chuanneng Power project reached its designed annual production capacity of 180,000 tons of concentrate at the end of August 2025, and the technological transformation project of Qinghai Jintai Lithium Industry aims to improve efficiency and strengthen the elasticity of the supply side [2][32][42]. 2. Demand Side On December 10, 2025, the price of power-type ternary materials slightly increased from 144,700 yuan/ton to 144,850 yuan/ton, while the price of power-type lithium iron phosphate slightly decreased from 39,095 yuan/ton to 39,085 yuan/ton The cell prices, such as the 523 cylindrical ternary cell, remained stable at 4.75 yuan/piece According to the Passenger Car Association, in November, new energy vehicle retail sales were 1.354 million units, a year-on-year increase of 7% and a month-on-month increase of 6%, and wholesale sales were 1.72 million units, a year-on-year increase of 20% and a month-on-month increase of 7% It is expected that the sales volume in December will still be strong However, downstream material manufacturers are taking a cautious wait-and-see attitude and mainly making rigid purchases Although the production schedules of cells and cathode materials are still at a high level, they have slightly declined month-on-month The energy storage market has strong supply and demand, but the supply is tight [2][8][42]. 3. Inventory and Warehouse Receipts As of December 5, 2025, the lithium carbonate inventory was 113,602 physical tons, a decrease of 2,366 tons or 2.04% from 115,968 tons on November 28 It is expected that the inventory reduction trend will continue in December, but the magnitude will be slower than in November, reflecting a marginal improvement in the supply-demand balance [3][33][42]. III. Price Trend Judgment and Summary In the next one to two weeks, the lithium carbonate futures price is expected to maintain a range-bound pattern The supply side is steadily increasing, with new production lines being put into operation and technological transformation projects enhancing production capacity elasticity, which may put pressure on prices The demand side is supported by new energy vehicle sales, but the month-on-month decline in downstream production schedules and cautious purchasing limit the upside space The slowdown in inventory reduction indicates a marginal easing of the tight supply-demand balance Considering that the main contract has recently risen while the spot market price has slightly declined, and the weakening basis and expanding trading volume indicate intensified long-short competition, it is expected that the price will fluctuate in the range of 93,000 - 97,000 yuan/ton, lacking a unilateral trend [4][42][43].

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the articles indicates that lithium carbonate futures are experiencing a volatile upward trend, supported by strong supply and demand fundamentals, with the main contract LC2605 closing at 95,980 yuan/ton, up 2.56% [1] - Analysts believe that while the supply-demand balance remains tight, the momentum is showing signs of marginal weakening due to seasonal demand shifts, leading to a market characterized by potential fluctuations [1][2] - In November, China's lithium carbonate production saw a significant year-on-year increase of 49%, reaching a historical high, with expectations for continued high output in December as new projects come online [1] Group 2 - Demand for new energy vehicles is increasing, with inventory levels rising significantly; as of the end of October, the inventory of new energy vehicles reached 730,000 units, an increase of 110,000 units month-on-month [2] - Despite a reduction in lithium carbonate inventory, the pace of depletion has slowed, with weekly inventory reported at approximately 114,000 tons, down about 2,366 tons week-on-week [2] - Industry experts are cautious about the market outlook, focusing on the recovery progress of major manufacturers and the sustainability of demand during the off-season, particularly the uncertainty surrounding the resumption of operations at the Ningde Times lithium mine [3]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The current core contradiction affecting the price trend of lithium carbonate futures lies in the interaction between supply - side disturbances and the peak - season expectations on the demand side [2]. - The news of the resumption of production at Ningde era's Jianxiawo lithium mine has caused abnormal fluctuations in the lithium carbonate futures price, indicating the spread of irrational market sentiment [2]. - The social inventory of lithium carbonate has been decreasing for 4 consecutive weeks. Although the overall inventory is still at a historical high, the downstream inventory is in a healthy and safe range, showing the resilience of terminal demand [2]. - The demand side provides key support for the price. The "Golden September" peak - season expectation and the toughness of the terminal structure jointly lay the foundation for demand. The production schedule of downstream lithium - battery material enterprises is expected to increase by more than 5% month - on - month [4]. - Even if the Jianxiawo mine resumes production in November at the earliest, it will not affect the downstream demand for lithium carbonate during the "Golden September and Silver October" period. It is expected that the lithium carbonate futures price will probably show a wide - range oscillation pattern in the next month, with the overall oscillation range around 68,000 - 72,000 yuan/ton [4]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Price Interval Prediction - The strong resistance level of the lithium carbonate main contract is 76,000 yuan/ton, the current volatility (20 - day rolling) is 40.6%, and the historical percentile of the current volatility (3 - year) is 67.2% [2]. 3.2 Lithium - battery Enterprise Risk Management Strategy Suggestions 3.2.1 Purchase Management - **Product price has no correlation**: For enterprises with a plan to produce battery materials in the future and worried about the increase in the purchase cost of lithium carbonate, they can buy corresponding futures contracts (20% hedging ratio, recommended entry range: 67,000 - 70,000 yuan/ton) or sell put options (30% hedging ratio, LC2511 - P - 68000) [2]. - **Product price has correlation**: Enterprises can sell futures main contracts (70% hedging ratio, based on purchase cost) or buy put options and sell call options (50% hedging ratio, based on purchase cost) when purchasing lithium carbonate to lock in the value of goods; for those worried about the decrease in sales profit due to price decline when selling lithium carbonate, they can sell corresponding futures contracts (80% hedging ratio, based on sales profit) or buy put options and sell call options (40% hedging ratio, based on sales profit) [2]. 3.2.2 Sales Management - For enterprises purchasing lithium - containing raw materials to produce finished products, worried about the decrease in sales profit due to price decline when selling finished products, they can sell futures main contracts (80% hedging ratio, based on purchase cost) or buy put options and sell call options (60% hedging ratio, based on purchase cost) [2]. 3.2.3 Inventory Management - For enterprises with inventory of raw materials/lithium carbonate highly correlated with price and worried about inventory depreciation due to future price decline, they can sell futures main contracts (60% - 80% hedging ratio, 78,000 - 82,000 yuan/ton) or sell call options (40% - 60% hedging ratio, LC2511 - C - 79000) [2]. 3.3 Futures Data - **Lithium carbonate main contract**: The closing price is 70,720 yuan/ton, down 2,180 yuan (- 2.99%) daily and 1,160 yuan (- 1.61%) weekly; the trading volume is 751,480 lots, up 159,805 lots (27.01%) daily and 308,680 lots (69.71%) weekly; the open interest is 340,814 lots, down 10,526 lots (- 3.00%) daily and 5,234 lots (- 1.51%) weekly [10]. - **Lithium carbonate weighted contract**: The closing price is 70,827 yuan/ton, down 2,098 yuan (- 2.88%) daily and 1,082 yuan (- 1.51%) weekly; the trading volume is 1,063,402 lots, up 268,464 lots (33.77%) daily and 467,948 lots (78.59%) weekly; the open interest is 796,180 lots, down 10,197 lots (- 1.26%) daily and up 32,227 lots (4.22%) weekly [10]. 3.4 Spot Data 3.4.1 Lithium Ore Daily Quotes - The average price of lithium mica (Li2O: 2 - 2.5%) is 1,815 yuan/ton, down 50 yuan (- 2.68%) daily and 70 yuan (- 3.71%) weekly [21]. - The average price of lithium spodumene (Li2O: 3 - 4%) is 3,130 yuan/ton, down 135 yuan (- 4.13%) daily and 210 yuan (- 6.29%) weekly [21]. 3.4.2 Lithium Carbonate/Hydroxide Daily Quotes - The average price of industrial - grade lithium carbonate is 71,200 yuan/ton, down 1,150 yuan (- 1.59%) daily and 2,400 yuan (- 3.26%) weekly [24]. - The average price of battery - grade lithium carbonate is 73,450 yuan/ton, down 1,150 yuan (- 1.54%) daily and 2,450 yuan (- 3.23%) weekly [24]. 3.4.3 Downstream Daily Quotes - The average price of lithium iron phosphate (power - type) is 33,620 yuan/ton, down 275 yuan (- 0.81%) daily [29]. - The average price of lithium manganese iron phosphate is 44,850 yuan/ton, down 200 yuan (- 0.44%) daily [30]. 3.5 Basis and Warehouse Receipt Data - **Lithium carbonate brand basis quotes**: For example, the basis quote of Shengxin Lithium Energy (LI2CO3≥99.8%, LC2507) is 100 yuan, with no daily change [32]. - **Lithium carbonate warehouse receipt quantity**: The total warehouse receipt quantity is 38,101 lots, with no daily change [35]. 3.6 Cost and Profit No specific summary data provided in the text for cost and profit other than the presentation of relevant charts.

Report Overview - Report Name: Nanhua Futures Lithium Carbonate Enterprise Risk Management Daily Report - Date: September 1, 2025 - Analysts: Xia Yingying, Yu Weihang 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - In September, the lithium carbonate futures price is likely to show a wide - range oscillation pattern, with the price fluctuating based on the game between "supply disturbance intensity" and "demand fulfillment degree" [3][4]. - The core contradiction affecting the lithium carbonate futures price is the interaction between supply - side disturbances and demand - side peak - season expectations. Supply - side disturbances are the leading factor for the current futures price rebound, while the demand side provides key support [3]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Price Interval Prediction - For the lithium carbonate main contract, the strong resistance level is 90,000 yuan/ton. The current volatility (20 - day rolling) is 42.2%, and the historical percentile of the current volatility (3 - year) is 73.5% [2]. 3.2 Lithium Carbonate Enterprise Risk Management Strategy Recommendations Inventory Management - To prevent inventory impairment, 60% of the strategy is to short lithium carbonate futures (LC2511) according to inventory. 40% is to sell call options (over - the - counter/on - exchange options), and also buy out - of - the - money put options (on - exchange/over - the - counter options) [2]. Procurement Management - To prevent future price increases, 10% of the strategy is to buy far - month lithium carbonate contracts according to the procurement plan. 20% is to sell put options (on - exchange/over - the - counter options), and also buy out - of - the - money call options (on - exchange/over - the - counter options) [2]. 3.3 Core Contradiction Analysis Supply - side - Supply - side disturbances are the main reason for the futures price rebound. Market concerns about mining license issues and environmental protection in Jiangxi lithium mines may lead to production suspension, increasing supply uncertainty. A price - driven chain of "price increase - capacity release - ore consumption increase - ore price increase" is formed, and future enterprise开工率 is expected to rise, potentially causing temporary lithium ore shortages and pushing up the lithium salt price [3]. Demand - side - The peak - season expectation of "Golden September" and the resilience of the terminal structure support the demand. Downstream lithium - battery material enterprises' production is expected to increase by over 5% month - on - month. The demand from new - energy commercial vehicles and energy - storage fields offsets the weakening demand from new - energy passenger cars, maintaining the growth of lithium - salt demand [3]. 3.4 Futures Data Price and Volume Changes - The closing price of the lithium carbonate main contract is 75,560 yuan/ton, down 1,620 yuan (- 2.10%) daily and 3,820 yuan (- 4.81%) weekly. The trading volume is 540,295 lots, up 50,237 lots (10.25%) daily but down 86,621 lots (- 13.82%) weekly. The open interest is 339,133 lots, down 7,472 lots (- 2.16%) daily and 29,534 lots (- 8.01%) weekly [9]. Month - to - Month Spread Changes - LC11 - 12 is 140 yuan, down 120 yuan (- 46%) daily and 200 yuan (- 59%) weekly. LC11 - 01 is 340 yuan, down 200 yuan (- 37%) daily and 340 yuan (- 50%) weekly [14]. 3.5 Spot Data Lithium Ore - The average price of lithium mica (Li2O: 2 - 2.5%) is 1,950 yuan/ton, down 25 yuan (- 1.27%) daily and 45 yuan (- 2.26%) weekly. Other lithium ore prices also show different degrees of decline [19]. Carbonate and Hydroxide - The average price of industrial - grade lithium carbonate is 76,050 yuan/ton, down 1,300 yuan (- 1.68%) daily and 4,150 yuan (- 5.17%) weekly. Other related products also have price changes [22]. Downstream Products - The prices of downstream products such as lithium iron phosphate and ternary materials also show different degrees of decline or stability [27][28]. 3.6 Basis and Warehouse Receipt Data Basis - The basis of lithium carbonate main continuous contract and brand - based basis quotes are provided. For example, the basis quotes of some well - known lithium enterprises such as Tianqi Lithium and Ganfeng Lithium are stable [30]. Warehouse Receipts - The total number of lithium carbonate warehouse receipts is 29,887 lots, an increase of 930 lots compared to yesterday. Different warehouses have different changes in warehouse receipt quantities [33]. 3.7 Cost and Profit - No specific numerical analysis of cost and profit is provided in the summary part, but there are charts showing lithium carbonate production profit from purchased lithium ore, import profit, and theoretical delivery profit [34][36].