[Table_Industry] ——信达军工 E 周刊第 193 期 [Table_ReportDate] 2025 年 08 月 25 日 证券研究报告 行业研究 [Table_ReportType] 行业周报 | [Table_StockAndRank] 国防军工 | | | --- | --- | | 投资评级 | 看好 | | 上次评级 | 看好 | [Table_Author] 张润毅 军工行业首席分析师 执业编号：S1500520050003 邮 箱：zhangrunyi@cindasc.com 孙然 军工行业分析师 执业编号：S1500524080003 邮 箱：sunran@cindasc.com 信达证券股份有限公司 CINDA SECURITIES CO.,LTD 北京市西城区宣武门西大街甲127号金隅大厦 B座 邮编：100031 [Table_Title] 阅兵行情持续演绎，聚焦新质战斗力 ——信达军工 E 周刊第 193 期 [Table_ReportDate] 2025 年 08 月 25 日 本期内容提要: [Table_S [一周Table_Summary 行情ummar 回 ...

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the recent activity in the military industry stocks, highlighting the impact of the upcoming military parade and the associated "parade market" trends observed in previous years [5]. Group 1: Military Equipment and Technology - The military parade will showcase domestically produced main battle equipment, including new-generation tanks, carrier-based aircraft, and fighter jets, emphasizing the PLA's operational capabilities [4]. - The parade will feature advanced equipment such as hypersonic weapons, air defense systems, and strategic missiles, demonstrating the military's strong deterrent capabilities [4]. - The focus will be on new types of unmanned intelligent systems and electronic warfare capabilities, reflecting the military's adaptation to technological advancements and evolving warfare [4]. Group 2: Market Trends and Analysis - Historical analysis shows that military stocks typically experience a rally 1-2 months prior to major parades, with military indices rising in the lead-up to these events [5]. - The strength of the "parade market" is influenced by overall market conditions and risk appetite, with significant past gains noted, such as an 84% excess return in the military sector during the 2015 parade [5]. - Post-parade, military stocks may face short-term adjustments, but long-term performance will be driven by the fundamentals of the military industry [5].

Core Viewpoint - The A-share market experienced a strong rebound, with the Shanghai Composite Index reaching a ten-year high, driven by significant trading volume and positive sentiment in the defense and military sector due to a major military parade announcement [1][3]. Group 1: Market Performance - The A-share market recorded a trading volume of 2.45 trillion yuan, maintaining above 2 trillion yuan for six consecutive trading days [1]. - The defense and military sector saw increased activity, particularly the high-profile defense ETF (512810), which rose by 0.55% during the day [1]. - The ETF (512810) attracted over 520 million yuan in a single day, indicating strong investor interest, with a closing premium rate of 0.14% [1]. Group 2: Key Stocks and Movements - The defense ETF (512810) constituents showed a mixed performance, with notable gains from companies like Guangqi Technology, which surged by 9.99%, while major stocks like China Shipbuilding and Great Wall Military fell over 3% [3][4]. - The trading volume for the ETF (512810) reached 1.27 billion yuan, continuing a trend of over 1 billion yuan in daily trading for seven consecutive days [1]. Group 3: Military Parade Impact - A significant military parade is set to showcase new military capabilities, including a new structure of military forces and advanced weaponry, which is expected to positively influence the defense sector [3][4]. - The parade will feature new-generation traditional weapons and advanced technologies such as unmanned systems and hypersonic capabilities, potentially redefining global military technology competition [5][6]. - Historical data indicates that previous military parades have led to a surge in the defense sector, suggesting a similar pattern may occur this time [7]. Group 4: Long-term Outlook - The defense industry is expected to undergo a significant transformation, driven by the strategic goal of building a world-class military, marking the beginning of a new golden era for the sector [7]. - The ETF (512810) encompasses a wide range of themes, including commercial aerospace, low-altitude economy, and military AI, making it an efficient tool for investing in core defense assets [7].

Group 1 - The upcoming military parade will feature multiple "firsts," with a significant proportion of new domestic military equipment being showcased for the first time [1] - The air force formation will include all current main battle aircraft types, highlighting several key equipment that have garnered public attention [1] - As of August 20, 2025, the CSI Defense Index (399973) shows mixed performance among its constituent stocks, with Steel Research High-tech (300034) leading with a 3.06% increase [1] Group 2 - Historical analysis since the 18th National Congress in 2012 indicates that "parade market trends" typically begin 1-2 months prior to the event, with military industry indices rising in the two months leading up to previous parades [1] - The strength of the military "parade market" is influenced by overall market conditions, risk appetite, and the scale of the parade, with the 2015 "Nine-Three Parade" yielding an 84% excess return due to its large scale and strong market rebound [1] - The military sector may face short-term adjustment pressure post-parade, but long-term trends will be driven by the fundamentals of the military industry [1] Group 3 - The Defense ETF closely tracks the CSI Defense Index, which includes listed companies under the ten major military groups and those providing equipment to the armed forces [2] - As of July 31, 2025, the top ten weighted stocks in the CSI Defense Index account for 43.88% of the index, with notable companies including AVIC Shenyang Aircraft (600760) and AVIC Engine (600893) [2] - The Defense ETF has the lowest management and custody fees among its peers at 0.40%, making it the only one in its category [2]

Core Viewpoint - The article emphasizes the transformative potential of "hardcore technology" across various sectors, including low-altitude economy, commercial aerospace, artificial intelligence, and deep-sea technology, presenting significant investment opportunities for investors who can understand trends and utilize the right tools [1][2]. Group 1: Investment Opportunities - The low-altitude economy is projected to reach 3.5 trillion yuan by 2035, with eVTOL (electric vertical takeoff and landing aircraft) entering large-scale production [4][5]. - The satellite internet sector is expected to see a market space of 831.3 billion yuan from 2023 to 2027, driven by the urgent need for satellite communication infrastructure [5]. - The humanoid robot market in China could reach 1.6 trillion yuan in industrial manufacturing and 1.9 trillion yuan in service sectors by 2035, indicating a significant growth trajectory [5]. - Deep-sea technology is gaining attention, with government support aimed at high-quality development of the marine economy, marking it as a key area for investment [6]. Group 2: Investment Products - The "空天地海" (Air, Space, Land, Sea) product matrix includes various investment tools such as the General Aviation ETF and Satellite ETF, which are the first and largest in their categories [3][8]. - Active management products like 永赢低碳环保智选A and 永赢高端装备智选A focus on specific sectors within hardcore technology, allowing for targeted investment strategies [3][8]. - The investment strategy emphasizes a combination of passive index funds and actively managed funds to cater to different investor needs and risk profiles [10][12]. Group 3: Market Trends - The military industry has seen a significant increase, with the military index rising over 20% from June to August, indicating a shift towards technology-driven growth rather than speculative trading [4]. - The article highlights the importance of understanding the intersection of "new combat power" and "new productive forces," where military technology converges with civilian markets, creating new investment avenues [4][5]. Group 4: Strategic Insights - The investment approach is based on a forward-looking perspective, focusing on structural opportunities in emerging industries, rather than chasing short-term trends [11][12]. - The investment team combines industry experts and fund managers to ensure informed decision-making based on deep industry insights and market responsiveness [12]. - The commitment to long-term investment and risk management is emphasized as a core principle guiding the investment strategy in hardcore technology [12][14].

Core Viewpoint - The article emphasizes that the investment opportunities in the new era driven by hard-core technology will belong to investors who can understand trends and utilize the right tools [1][2]. Group 1: Investment Opportunities in Hard-Core Technology - The article highlights the ongoing technological revolution across "air, space, land, and sea," driven by advancements in low-altitude economy, commercial aerospace, artificial intelligence, and deep-sea technology [1]. - Historical trends indicate that investors who align with national policy directions and industrial transformations can reap significant rewards, similar to past investments in the internet and semiconductor sectors [1]. - The low-altitude economy is projected to reach 3.5 trillion yuan by 2035, with eVTOL (electric vertical takeoff and landing aircraft) entering large-scale production [6]. - The satellite internet sector is expected to see a market space of 831.3 billion yuan from 2023 to 2027, driven by the need for satellite communication as a foundation for 6G technology [6]. - The humanoid robot market in China is anticipated to reach 1.6 trillion yuan in industrial manufacturing and 1.9 trillion yuan in service sectors by 2035 [6]. - Deep-sea technology is gaining attention, with government support aimed at high-quality development of the marine economy [7]. Group 2: Investment Tools and Strategies - The article discusses the creation of an "air, space, land, and sea" investment matrix by Yongying Fund, which includes six distinct products designed to facilitate investment in these emerging sectors [8][9]. - The matrix consists of both passive index funds and actively managed funds, allowing investors to efficiently target core value segments within the industry [9]. - The index products, such as the General Aviation ETF and Satellite ETF, are the first of their kind in the market, focusing on low-altitude economy and satellite communication respectively [9]. - Active products like Yongying Low Carbon Environmental Selection A and Yongying Advanced Manufacturing Selection A are tailored to capture growth in specific hard-core technology fields [9]. - The investment strategy emphasizes a forward-looking approach, focusing on structural opportunities in emerging industries rather than merely chasing market trends [14][15]. Group 3: Future Outlook - The article concludes with a vision of a future where advancements in eVTOL, humanoid robots, satellite networks, and deep-sea resources significantly transform daily life and economic structures [16]. - Public funds are positioned as key players in supporting national technological independence and industrial upgrades, connecting ordinary investors with capital markets [16].

昨天（8月13日），苏州警方召开专题新闻发布会，向社会各界及广大市民通报2025年上半年全市 公安机关全力以赴防风险、保安全、护稳定、促发展，加快形成和提升公安机关新质战斗力各项创新举 措，凸显苏州警队"走在前、做示范"的使命担当。 打防并举，筑牢发展平安根基 今年以来，苏州警方聚焦市民关注的"菜篮子""米袋子""药罐子"问题，以扎实开展"昆仑2025"专项 行动为主线，坚决守牢市民舌尖上的安全；深入开展"平安长江2025"专项违法犯罪打击整治、"春季护 渔"区域会战等专项行动，今年以来全市涉水违法犯罪同比下降57%。 全市公安机关持续调优以86个警务工作站、200多支武装冲锋车组为骨干的巡逻防控体系，进一步 拓展无人巡逻车、警用机器狗、水面救生机器人等新技术装备在一线的实战应用，全力守护夏夜"烟火 气"，持续织密重点部位巡逻防控，6月底以来全市路面侵财类警情同比下降9.3%。 紧盯市民反映强烈的电信网络新型违法犯罪，全市日均拦截涉诈电话3.8万通、涉诈短信35万条， 追赃挽损数同比上升38.5%；全市197个派出所扩容组建1500多人的专职劝阻队，实行7×24小时全天候 运转，累计开展上门劝阻4万余次、集中 ...

Core Viewpoint - The defense and military industry sector experienced a pullback on August 7, despite a recent surge, with the high-profile defense ETF (512810) opening at a three-and-a-half-year high but subsequently fluctuating below that level [1][3]. Group 1: ETF Performance - The defense ETF (512810) saw a trading volume exceeding 1.28 billion yuan, maintaining strong market interest despite the pullback [1]. - The ETF recorded a net subscription of 21.42 million yuan at the end of the previous trading day, accumulating over 160 million yuan in net inflows over the past ten days, with its total fund size surpassing 1 billion yuan for the first time, reflecting an annual increase of over 83% [1][5]. Group 2: Stock Movements - Among the constituent stocks, Western Materials fell over 8%, while several stocks that had surged previously also saw declines, including Aerospace Science and Technology, which dropped over 3%, and Construction Industry, which fell over 4% [3]. - Conversely, there were notable gains, such as the stock of 712, which hit the daily limit, and Great Wall Military Industry, which rose by 9%, reaching a new historical high [3]. Group 3: Market Sentiment and Future Outlook - With the upcoming September 3 military parade, market sentiment remains optimistic, as investors continue to bet on the future of the defense and military sector [3]. - Analysts from various brokerages, including CITIC Securities and Zhongyou Securities, believe that the fundamentals of the defense and military sector are beginning to recover, with catalysts expected to materialize in the first half of 2025 [5]. - The latest research from Shenwan Hongyuan Securities emphasizes the potential for continued upward movement in the sector, driven by the "14th Five-Year Plan" and military trade expectations [5].

Core Viewpoint - The military industry stocks have experienced a significant surge, driven by strong orders and production acceleration, with expectations for continued high performance in the second half of the year [1][6][7]. Group 1: Market Performance - On August 6, A-share indices rose, with military concept stocks seeing a notable increase; the aircraft carrier index rose nearly 4%, and the military information index increased over 3% [1]. - Major military stocks such as China Shipbuilding and China Shipbuilding Heavy Industry reached their daily limit, with over 20 stocks rising by more than 10% [1][2]. - The trading volume for China Shipbuilding exceeded 8.4 billion yuan, while China Shipbuilding Heavy Industry's trading volume surpassed 4.8 billion yuan [3]. Group 2: Company Developments - China Shipbuilding announced a significant asset restructuring project, with plans for a merger with China Shipbuilding Heavy Industry, leading to a temporary suspension of trading starting August 13 [4]. - The second domestically built large cruise ship, "Aida Huacheng," has entered the equipment debugging phase, with over 80% of the project completed and scheduled for delivery in 2026 [5]. Group 3: Industry Outlook - The military industry is entering an upward cycle, with strong demand for production and delivery, and the upcoming "9·3" military parade expected to catalyze further interest in military stocks [6][7]. - The "14th Five-Year Plan" is anticipated to open new growth opportunities for the military sector, with a focus on new combat capabilities and military trade [7]. - Analysts predict that the military industry will see a recovery in fundamentals and sentiment, with expectations for improved performance in the second half of the year compared to the first half [7].

Group 1 - The China Defense Index (399973) has seen a strong increase of 2.54%, with notable gains from constituent stocks such as Inner Mongolia First Machinery (600967) up 9.25%, and Gaode Infrared (002414) up 7.79% [1] - The current focus in the military industry sector is on emerging sub-sectors that represent future development directions, particularly in new combat capabilities like unmanned equipment, underwater operations, cyber warfare, and hypersonic technologies [1] - The newly established Emerging Resource Forces have begun to oversee the construction of the entire network information system, with expectations for comprehensive information construction to start in the third or fourth quarter of this year [1] Group 2 - Military electronics orders are expected to see significant improvements in September, driven by the end of the 14th Five-Year Plan, the push for lower costs in downstream equipment, and increased demand for electronic components [2] - The report indicates that the price decline issues of the past two years are easing, leading to a more balanced supply-demand situation, with expectations for gross margins to stabilize or improve [2] - The Defense ETF closely tracks the China Defense Index, which includes listed companies under the ten major military groups and those providing weaponry to the armed forces, reflecting the overall performance of defense industry listed companies [2] Group 3 - As of July 31, 2025, the top ten weighted stocks in the China Defense Index include AVIC Shenyang Aircraft (600760) and AVIC Engine (600893), collectively accounting for 43.88% of the index [3]