国防军工行业 行业研究 | 行业周报 亚太局势不确定性加剧，我国装备建设或 将提速，关注新质战斗力 核心观点 投资建议与投资标的 风险提示：军品订单和收入确认不及预期；研发进度及产业化不及预期；竞争格局及份 额波动风险；产品价格下降风险等。 国家/地区 中国 行业 国防军工行业 报告发布日期 2025 年 11 月 24 日 看好（维持） | 罗楠 | 执业证书编号：S0860518100001 | | --- | --- | | | luonan@orientsec.com.cn | | | 021-63326320 | | 冯函 | 执业证书编号：S0860520070002 | | | fenghan@orientsec.com.cn | | | 021-63326320 | | 鲍丙文 | 执业证书编号：S0860124070016 | | --- | --- | | | baobingwen@orientsec.com.cn | | | 021-63326320 | | 无人僚机攻击-11 公开亮相，朱雀三号可回 | 2025-11-16 | | --- | --- | | 收火箭即将首飞，关注新质 ...

该机构表示，军工板块投资主线聚焦四大高确定性方向：一是军贸视角下的主战装备产业链，重点布局 具备整机总装能力、定价权和海外交付经验的核心企业，直接受益于体系化订单放量与客户黏性壁垒； 二是新质战斗力加速形成的先进作战领域，包括水下攻防、无人集群、网络电磁对抗和智能指控四大方 向，相关配套企业正从技术验证迈向规模化列装，进入业绩兑现期；三是军民融合纵深推进下的科技强 国抓手型赛道，如商业航天、低空经济、可控核聚变关键部件、高能激光、电磁发射及特种机器人等， 兼具国防支撑与新兴产业属性，具备"军技民用、双向赋能"成长弹性；四是改革与资产证券化主线，涵 盖地方国资收购优质涉军资产后注入上市公司带来的"壳+资产"重估，以及央企军工集团加速未上市资 产证券化或通过并购拓展专业边界释放的协同红利。 对于该板块，东吴证券指出，展望2026年，作为"十五五"规划建议开局之年与建军一百年奋斗目标冲刺 前夜，军工行业将迎来需求刚性化、结构高端化与财务健康化的关键转折：核心判断有五：一是订单确 定性显著增强，"十四五"尾单集中交付与"十五五"新规划建议启动形成双轮驱动；二是需求结构加速向 新质战斗力和消耗性作战能力倾斜；三是军贸成 ...

智通财经APP获悉，东吴证券发布研报称，2025年国防军工板块迎来基本面与市场表现的双重拐点，行 业终结"增收不增利"困局，迈入"订单兑现+业绩驱动"的高质量发展阶段。2026年作为"十五五"开局之 年，板块将迎来需求刚性化、结构高端化与财务健康化的关键转折，投资主线聚焦军贸出口、新质战斗 力、军民融合及资产证券化四大高确定性方向。 东吴证券主要观点如下： 2025年国防军工板块迎来基本面与市场表现的双重拐点 风险提示 1)行业订单不及预期的风险，2)新技术新产品应用进度不及预期的风险；3)价格波动超出预期；4)相关 改革进展不及预期。 作为"十五五"规划开局之年与建军百年奋斗目标冲刺前夜，军工行业将迎来需求刚性化、结构高端化与 财务健康化的关键转折：核心判断有五：一是订单确定性显著增强，"十四五"尾单集中交付与"十五 五"新规划启动形成双轮驱动；二是需求结构加速向新质战斗力和消耗性作战能力倾斜；三是军贸成为 第二增长曲线，体系化出口打开高端市场天花板；四是军民融合深化，商业航天、低空经济、核聚变等 方向实现"军技民用、双向赋能"；五是财务质量全面改善，现金流与盈利能力进入上行通道，估值逻辑 从主题博弈转向基 ...

Core Insights - The report highlights a significant turning point for the defense and military industry in 2025, with a strong recovery in both fundamentals and market performance, indicating a shift from policy expectations to actual performance realization [4][9][11] - The industry is entering a new phase characterized by rigid demand, structural upgrades, and improved financial health, with five core judgments outlined for 2026 [4][6][24] Industry Trends - The defense and military sector saw a cumulative increase of 16.39% in the Shenwan Defense Index by October 31, 2025, closely aligning with the performance of the CSI 300 index but lagging behind the growth-driven ChiNext index [9] - The market experienced a "Q1 bottoming, Q2 recovery, Q3 acceleration, and Q4 consolidation" rhythm, with the driving force shifting from policy expectations to performance realization [9][10] Financial Performance - The industry ended the "increasing revenue without increasing profit" dilemma, with significant improvements in operating cash flow and profitability quality, marking a transition to a new phase of high-quality development [4][24][26] - By November 10, 2025, the PE-TTM (excluding negative values) for the defense sector was approximately 70 times, indicating a structural revaluation rather than a systemic bubble [20][24] Revenue and Profitability - The report indicates a recovery in revenue and profit growth in 2025, with a notable increase in operating cash flow, signaling a turnaround from previous years of negative cash flow [24][31] - The industry experienced a significant rebound in profitability, with a 17.29% year-on-year increase in net profit attributable to shareholders in Q3 2025, reflecting effective cost control and improved operational efficiency [26][31] Investment Focus - The investment strategy focuses on four main lines: the main battle equipment supply chain from a military trade perspective, advanced combat capabilities, military-civilian integration sectors, and reform and asset securitization [4][6][26] - Key companies to watch include AVIC Shenyang Aircraft Corporation, China Aerospace Science and Technology Corporation, and others involved in military trade and advanced combat technologies [4][6][26]

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Outperform" rating for the industry [1] Core Insights - The report highlights six main lines of new productive forces, emphasizing the importance of innovation and advanced technologies in enhancing combat capabilities and operational efficiency [3][6][8] - It anticipates that 2026 will be a pivotal year for the mass production of humanoid robots and the practical implementation of Level 3 autonomous driving [3][43] - The commercial space sector is identified as a strategic emerging industry with significant growth potential, driven by technological advancements and policy support [24][32] Summary by Relevant Sections New Quality Combat Power - New quality combat power is characterized by innovation-driven advancements, moving away from traditional methods of enhancing combat capabilities [6][8] - Key features include the integration of emerging technologies such as AI, big data, and quantum information into military applications [7][8] Unmanned Equipment - Unmanned combat equipment is seen as a core component of new quality combat power, utilizing AI and advanced manufacturing technologies for various military tasks [15][19] - The report predicts that 2026 will be a critical year for the large-scale application of unmanned equipment, driven by new procurement paradigms and practical experiences from recent conflicts [19][20] Commercial Space - The commercial space industry is projected to experience rapid growth, with the global satellite industry revenue reaching approximately $285.3 billion in 2023, reflecting a significant increase [32][31] - The report emphasizes the role of policy support and technological breakthroughs in accelerating the development of the commercial space sector [32] Controlled Nuclear Fusion - Controlled nuclear fusion is highlighted as a key pathway for achieving clean and nearly limitless energy, with the potential to reshape global energy dynamics [35][38] - The report identifies 2026 as a crucial year for the development of controlled nuclear fusion, with multiple international projects reaching significant milestones [38] Intelligent Driving - The report forecasts that the market for Level 3 autonomous driving will exceed 50 billion yuan in 2025, with a long-term potential nearing 300 billion yuan [43] - It notes that 2026 is expected to be the year when Level 3 autonomous driving becomes commercially viable, supported by regulatory advancements [43][46]

战斗力是一支军队兴衰成败的最终决定力量，不仅影响武装力量的作战方式和实际效能，更维系着一个 国家和一个民族的生存安全和长治久安。先进战斗力，是习主席深刻论述"新质战斗力"这个原创性概念 标识性概念之后，我们党提出的关于战斗力建设的最新观点。2019年1月，习主席在中央军委军事工作 会议上指出："要加强新型作战力量建设，增加新质战斗力比重。"此后，习主席多次论述这一重要问 题，强调"打造强大战略威慑力量体系，增加新域新质作战力量比重""推动新质战斗力加速提升"等。正 是在新时代我军新质战斗力形成发展的实践基础上，"先进战斗力"这个新思想新论断应运而生。先进战 斗力是更高级形态的战斗力，以新质战斗力为引领和支撑，强调新质战斗力的规模化、实战化、体系化 运用，注重理论创新、智能加持、体系升级、才智升维、武器装备升级，同时还包括对传统战斗力的升 级改造和创造性运用，是新质战斗力的形态进化和容量扩展、质量升级。 先进战斗力代表着军事变革、军事智能和军队作战方式的发展趋势，是战斗力的新增长点、未来战场的 制高点。党的二十届四中全会通过的《中共中央关于制定国民经济和社会发展第十五个五年规划的建 议》（以下简称《建议》），立 ...

战斗力是一支军队兴衰成败的最终决定力量，不仅影响武装力量的作战方式和实际效能，更维系着一个 国家和一个民族的生存安全和长治久安。先进战斗力，是习主席深刻论述"新质战斗力"这个原创性概念 标识性概念之后，我们党提出的关于战斗力建设的最新观点。2019年1月，习主席在中央军委军事工作 会议上指出："要加强新型作战力量建设，增加新质战斗力比重。"此后，习主席多次论述这一重要问 题，强调"打造强大战略威慑力量体系，增加新域新质作战力量比重""推动新质战斗力加速提升"等。正 是在新时代我军新质战斗力形成发展的实践基础上，"先进战斗力"这个新思想新论断应运而生。先进战 斗力是更高级形态的战斗力，以新质战斗力为引领和支撑，强调新质战斗力的规模化、实战化、体系化 运用，注重理论创新、智能加持、体系升级、才智升维、武器装备升级，同时还包括对传统战斗力的升 级改造和创造性运用，是新质战斗力的形态进化和容量扩展、质量升级。 先进战斗力代表着军事变革、军事智能和军队作战方式的发展趋势，是战斗力的新增长点、未来战场的 制高点。党的二十届四中全会通过的《中共中央关于制定国民经济和社会发展第十五个五年规划的建 议》（以下简称《建议》），立 ...

投资建议与投资标的 风险提示：军品订单和收入确认不及预期；研发进度及产业化不及预期；竞争格局及份 额波动风险；产品价格下降风险等。 国家/地区 中国 行业 国防军工行业 报告发布日期 2025 年 11 月 16 日 | 罗楠 | 执业证书编号：S0860518100001 | | --- | --- | | | luonan@orientsec.com.cn | | | 021-63326320 | | 冯函 | 执业证书编号：S0860520070002 | | | fenghan@orientsec.com.cn | | | 021-63326320 | 国防军工行业 行业研究 | 行业周报 无人僚机攻击-11 公开亮相，朱雀三号可回 收火箭即将首飞，关注新质战斗力 核心观点 | 核心观点：关注新质战斗力及商业航天 4 | | --- | | 1.1 智能化驱动作战模式升级，无人僚机未来市场广阔 4 | | 1.2 "朱雀三号"即将首飞，未来规模化星座组网计划有望加速 4 | | 1.3 继续看好内需新质战斗力、军贸等方向 4 | | 风险提示 5 | | 附录：行情走势与主要新闻公告 6 | | 2. ...

武汉警备区第八次党代会召开 盛阅春表示，市委将持续弘扬优良传统，用心用情为驻汉部队排忧解难，营造拥军崇军 良好环境，全力巩固军政军民团结。希望警备区继续发挥好桥梁纽带作用，动员驻汉部队一 如既往积极参与地方建设。 武汉警备区党委书记、政治委员刘洋致闭幕词，市委常委、武汉警备区党委副书记、司 令员袁野主持会议。 编辑：陈辰 坚持政治引领 强化使命担当 会议审议通过了中共武汉警备区第七届委员会工作报告和纪律检查委员会工作报告，选 举产生了警备区第八届党委委员、新一届纪委委员。 盛阅春代表市委对大会胜利召开表示热烈祝贺，向警备区全体官兵、职工及全市专武干 部、民兵致以衷心感谢。他指出，过去五年，警备区党委深入贯彻习近平强军思想，坚决落 实党中央、中央军委决策部署，在湖北省军区党委的坚强领导下，政治引领坚强有力，练兵 备战扎实有效，国防动员深入推进，服务地方积极有为，各项工作取得显著成绩。 盛阅春强调，"十五五"时期是基本实现社会主义现代化夯实基础、全面发力的关键时 期，党的二十届四中全会擘画了未来五年发展的宏伟蓝图。武汉正深入学习贯彻全会精神， 认真落实省委部署要求，加快建设国家中心城市，全力打造"五个中心"，努力 ...

Core Viewpoint - The launch of China's first electromagnetic catapult aircraft carrier, Fujian, marks a significant advancement in the country's naval capabilities, establishing China as one of only two nations with operational electromagnetic launch capabilities [2]. Group 1: ETF Performance - As of November 10, the Aerospace ETF (159267) reached a new high of 335 million yuan, with a recent increase of 14.5 million units in the past month [1]. - The ETF recorded a net inflow of 3.8938 million yuan recently, with a total of 32.3372 million yuan in net inflows over the last 10 trading days [1]. - The ETF's net flow rate over the past 20 days stands at 77.34%, leading among similar products [1]. Group 2: Fujian Aircraft Carrier - The Fujian aircraft carrier is equipped with an advanced electromagnetic launch system and new carrier-based aircraft, significantly enhancing operational efficiency and establishing a comprehensive maritime defense system [1][2]. - The entry of the Fujian carrier into service is expected to set new standards for future aircraft carriers and provide valuable experience in deploying fifth-generation carrier-based fighter jets [2]. - The carrier's commissioning reflects the advanced nature of China's military equipment and is anticipated to drive a new round of upgrades in military technology during the 14th Five-Year Plan [2]. Group 3: Industry Index - The Aerospace ETF closely tracks the National Aerospace and Aviation Industry Index, which consists of high-quality companies in aerospace, military electronics, and ground armaments, with a 98.2% representation in the defense and military industry [2]. - The index has a high coverage of aerospace and military sectors, with 90.35% in aerospace and over 53% in aircraft carrier concepts, making it one of the purest military-themed indices in the market [2].