景气度投资
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大变化!“从0到1”成主流,公募新投资观曝光
券商中国· 2025-11-16 07:16
抓到老鼠的猫就是好猫,在业绩优势日益凸显后,公募对"从0到1"的投资观也从厌恶渐渐转入接受或拥 抱。 伴随着股票风险偏好的抬升,公募业绩排名背后的持仓审美与估值、自由现金流等传统指标渐行渐远,与之对 比的是,今年来中证红利指数仅微涨约3%,加上行业景气度叙事在公募行业的流行,进一步刺激"从0到1"的 理念觉醒,使其逐步摆脱以往的非主流角色。 今年来,公募产品业绩节节高升,权益类基金普遍实现可观收益率,赚钱效应一方面有力地吸引申购资金涌 入,另一方面也使更多基金开始认识到"从0到1"在市场上已出现正反馈,也因此开始深度挖掘"从0到1"的机 会。 事实上,在严格的公募选股审美逻辑下,基于现金流、市盈率、市销率、市占率、营收体量等传统指标,"从0 到1"长期处于非主流投资观,尤其当一家公募的投资决策话语权掌握在60后、70后基金经理手中时,这种现象 会变得格外突出,公募在投资体系与观念上对"成熟稳重"的偏好,也让"从0到1"一度处于被基金经理排斥的状 态。 深圳某合资基金前高管接受证券时报记者采访时曾强调,"从0到1"的投资理念偏重主题,并不符合公募价值投 资的内涵,确定性与可靠性是公募应该追求收益的来源,选股首先 ...
相聚资本:行情告一段落了吗?
Xin Lang Ji Jin· 2025-08-01 08:06
Core Viewpoint - The market is experiencing a structural shift led by AI, with various sectors such as new consumption, innovative pharmaceuticals, and computing power contributing to an overall rise in indices [1][2]. Group 1: Market Performance - In July, the Shanghai Composite Index rose by 3.73%, while the ChiNext Index saw an increase of 8.14%. However, on July 31 and August 1, the Shanghai Composite Index fell by 1.54% over two days, and the ChiNext Index recorded three consecutive days of decline, totaling a drop of 3.49% [1]. - The market's recent performance indicates a healthy state, with adjustments being a normal part of the market cycle. Historical trends show that after a significant rise, a correction is typical as investors take profits [2]. Group 2: Investment Strategy - The current market sentiment is characterized by a cautious approach, with investors showing restraint despite the overall positive performance since the beginning of the year. The market has exhibited a multi-faceted growth pattern, suggesting that emotional factors are less dominant than fundamental improvements [3]. - Future market movements can be categorized into three scenarios: strong fundamentals leading to quick price recovery, slowing fundamentals resulting in consolidation or further declines, and significant fundamental issues causing sharp price drops [3]. Group 3: Sector Analysis - Different sectors will exhibit varying strengths during market adjustments. Recent strong performers like new consumption and innovative pharmaceuticals may face corrections, while new strong sectors may emerge [4]. - The recent underperformance of Hong Kong stocks compared to A-shares is attributed to industry structure rather than inherent issues within the Hong Kong market [4]. Group 4: Investment Philosophy - Successful investing requires continuous improvement in methods and cognitive understanding. Investors should not assume that past returns from a specific strategy will persist indefinitely, as this can lead to losses [4]. - Learning from mistakes is essential in the investment journey, as it fosters growth and adaptation to changing market conditions [5].