美国兰德报告网站 1 月 22 日文章，原题：人工智能如何重塑未来战争中的四大核心竞争格局 人工智能 （AI）正被越来越多地视为改变未来战争形态的关键变量。兰德智库的最新研究报告提出，与其笼统 谈论"智能化战争"，不如拆解战争中最基本的竞争结构，观察AI将如何改变这些底层博弈格局。该研究 提出一个分析框架，聚焦未来战争中的4项基础性竞争：数量与质量、隐蔽与发现、集中与分散的指挥 控制，以及网络进攻与网络防御。结论并不激进，却指向一个清晰方向：如果要真正释放AI的军事潜 力，军方可能需要调整一些长期沿用的作战理念和力量结构。 首先，在数量与质量的竞争中，AI可能重新赋予"数量"以优势。也就是说，比起传统且昂贵的精密制导 武器，在AI的加持下，大量而廉价的无人机战术更胜一筹。传统军事优势往往建立在高度复杂、性能 卓越但成本高昂的精细化平台之上。但随着自动化和无人系统能力提升，作战单位不再必须以高成本换 取高性能武器。AI支持下的无人系统正在变得更便宜、更可靠，也更容易规模化部署。相较于昂贵的 精细化武器系统，大量可消耗、可替换的无人机在某些任务中具备成本优势。 其次，AI将同时强化"发现"和"隐蔽"，使战场侦察与 ...

Core Viewpoint - The article emphasizes the importance of cultivating military technology innovation talents to achieve high-quality modernization of national defense and the military, aligning with the goals set by the 20th National Congress of the Communist Party of China [1]. Group 1: Importance of Military Technology Innovation Talents - Military technology innovation talents are characterized by their ability to integrate technology with combat, crucial for modern warfare where "technology wins" [1]. - The complex international security environment necessitates a rapid response mechanism for talent cultivation that aligns with the evolving nature of warfare, particularly in artificial intelligence [1]. Group 2: Transformation of Talent Requirements - The logic of modern warfare demands a shift from "single experts" to "cross-domain composite leaders," requiring a comprehensive upgrade in thinking and values [2]. - Talents must break down "professional silos" and establish system thinking to ensure technology aligns with practical combat needs [2]. Group 3: Educational System for Talent Development - A deep coupling of military education and combat needs is essential, with military academies serving as incubators for combat effectiveness [3]. - The curriculum should include courses on artificial intelligence, network architecture design, and precision strike principles to address the disconnect between learning and application [3]. Group 4: Practical Training Models - The "talent + practical platform" model is promoted, where talents gain experience through major tasks and key platforms [4]. - This includes integrating talent development with significant technological projects and military training exercises to accumulate practical experience [4]. Group 5: Collaboration Between Military and Civilian Sectors - Expanding collaboration channels between military and civilian sectors is crucial for enhancing talent utilization [5]. - Initiatives include mentorship programs with leading experts and joint training with top civilian universities to tackle challenges in precision strike navigation and data integration [5].

Group 1: Defense and Military Trade Industry - The military trade industry is experiencing rapid growth in military spending, driven by geopolitical conflicts, leading to a reshaping of global supply and demand dynamics [6][7] - The U.S. remains the largest military spender, followed by China, with significant increases in military imports from the Asia-Pacific region and Europe [6][7] - China's military trade advantages include a comprehensive product range, fewer political conditions, and flexible transaction methods, positioning it well for international market opportunities [8][9] Group 2: Automotive Industry - Leap Motor - Leap Motor's revenue for Q3 2025 reached 19.45 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 97.3%, with a net profit of 150 million yuan and a gross margin of 14.5%, reflecting improvements in operational efficiency [11][12] - The company is expected to achieve revenues of 64 billion, 102.4 billion, and 131.1 billion yuan from 2025 to 2027, with growth rates of 99%, 60%, and 28% respectively [13] - Leap Motor's global expansion is evident with a significant increase in overseas terminal orders, and the company has established over 700 sales and service outlets internationally [12][13] Group 3: Electric Equipment Industry - Liangxin Co. - Liangxin Co. reported a revenue of 3.507 billion yuan for the first three quarters of 2025, a year-on-year increase of 12.23%, but faced a decline in net profit due to changes in sales structure and pricing pressures [15][16] - The company is focusing on AIDC (Artificial Intelligence Data Center) and overseas markets, with expectations of net profits growing to 409 million, 526 million, and 663 million yuan from 2025 to 2027 [16][19] - Liangxin Co. is actively developing products for data centers, aiming to enhance its market presence and brand influence in this sector [16] Group 4: Electric Equipment Industry - Hongfa Co. - Hongfa Co. achieved a revenue of 12.914 billion yuan in the first three quarters of 2025, with a net profit of 1.470 billion yuan, reflecting stable performance and capacity utilization [18][19] - The company is transitioning from single components to modular solutions in the automotive sector, which is expected to enhance its market share and product value [18] - Future growth opportunities are anticipated in the AIDC sector, with a focus on high-voltage direct current relays and modular solutions for data centers [19] Group 5: Electric Equipment Industry - Trina Solar - Trina Solar reported a revenue of 49.97 billion yuan for the first three quarters of 2025, with a net loss of 4.201 billion yuan, although showing signs of improvement in its component business [21][22] - The company aims to significantly increase its storage business output, targeting 8 GWh for 2025 and doubling it in 2026, supported by strong overseas orders [22] - Trina Solar's operational scale in maintenance services is expected to contribute to stable profit growth as its installed capacity increases [22] Group 6: Automotive Industry - XPeng Motors - XPeng Motors reported a revenue of 20.38 billion yuan in Q3 2025, a year-on-year increase of 101.8%, with a gross margin of 20.1% [24][25] - The company is advancing its global strategy with local production projects in Indonesia and Austria, and has launched its second-generation VLA model for smart driving [25] - XPeng Motors forecasts Q4 2025 deliveries between 125,000 and 132,000 units, with total revenue expected to reach 21.5 to 23 billion yuan [25]

Core Viewpoint - The article highlights the significant display of unmanned combat equipment during the 80th anniversary of the victory in the Chinese People's Anti-Japanese War and the World Anti-Fascist War, showcasing the military's focus on future battlefield capabilities with an integrated approach to unmanned operations [1]. Ground Unmanned Combat Unit - The ground unmanned combat unit featured various types of unmanned equipment, including reconnaissance and assault unmanned vehicles, mine-clearing drones, and multi-rotor drones, demonstrating a comprehensive combat layout [5][7]. - The showcased reconnaissance and assault unmanned vehicle is equipped with a tracked chassis and can perform diverse military tasks such as reconnaissance and fire strikes, supporting tanks and infantry units in coordinated operations [7]. - The army is actively exploring mixed operations involving both manned and unmanned systems to enhance reconnaissance, obstacle-clearing, and precision strike capabilities [9]. Naval Unmanned Combat Unit - The naval unmanned combat unit included domestically developed unmanned underwater vehicles, unmanned boats, and mine-laying systems, capable of executing underwater reconnaissance, patrol, and mine-clearing tasks [10]. - New unmanned boats can autonomously detect and neutralize underwater mines, significantly improving the efficiency and safety of mine-clearing operations [12]. - The development of unmanned mine-laying systems and mine-clearing vessels is aimed at synchronizing offensive and defensive capabilities in naval operations [14]. Aerial Unmanned Combat Unit - The aerial unmanned combat unit showcased various models of unmanned aerial vehicles, emphasizing a well-rounded combat system [18]. - The newly introduced shipborne unmanned helicopter enhances naval reconnaissance and operational capabilities, providing critical support for long-range maritime missions [20][22]. - Recent training innovations have focused on practical scenarios, pushing the limits of personnel and equipment, and improving operational readiness in response to various maritime and aerial situations [24].

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Accumulate" rating for the defense and military industry [6]. Core Insights - The integration of AI in the military sector is becoming a significant trend, with "intelligence supremacy" emerging as a key factor in modern warfare. The advent of AI technologies, particularly since the launch of ChatGPT in 2022, has accelerated the application of large models across various industries, including defense [1][11]. - The report highlights the rapid rise of companies like Palantir, which has seen its market value increase nearly 20 times since the beginning of 2023, surpassing traditional defense contractors [2]. - The report emphasizes the importance of identifying China's equivalent to Palantir by understanding how AI can empower the military industry and pinpointing critical segments within the AI military supply chain [2][3]. Summary by Sections AI Empowerment in Military - AI is transforming military operations through various applications, including: 1. Command, Control, and Decision-Making: AI assists in battlefield decision-making [2]. 2. Intelligence, Surveillance, and Reconnaissance (ISR): AI significantly enhances military efficiency, reducing OODA loop times [2]. 3. Unmanned Equipment: AI is driving advancements in autonomous operations and collaborative systems [2]. 4. Equipment Development: AI is enabling new models for weapon development, such as enhanced industrial software [2]. 5. Simulation and Training: AI is providing high-fidelity and cost-effective military simulation and training systems [2]. AI Military Supply Chain - The AI military supply chain consists of three segments: 1. Upstream: Data and computing power [3]. 2. Midstream: Algorithms and models [3]. 3. Downstream: Applications in command decision-making, intelligence analysis, unmanned equipment, and production assistance [3]. - The report suggests focusing on midstream companies that possess core databases and vertical algorithms, akin to Palantir's business model [3]. Investment Recommendations - The report recommends a dual strategy for investing in the "AI + Military" sector: 1. Target companies that align with Palantir's business model, possessing military data, algorithms, and application experience, such as Kesi Technology and Zhongke Xingtu [4]. 2. Explore companies expanding AI into unmanned equipment and development, including Jingpin Special Equipment, Zhongwu Drone, Xibu Materials, and Huaru Technology [4].