（原标题：把握"成长+价值"双主线 兴业证券最新研判） 中国基金报记者赵心怡 12月16日，兴业证券召开2026年度投资策略会，围绕"十五五"规划开局之年的投资机遇展开深入探讨。 兴业证券全球首席策略师张忆东与A股首席策略分析师张启尧分别就港股和A股市场发表投资展望。 会议现场，兴业证券还推出了财富管理品牌"知己理财"。记者获悉，兴业证券在买方投顾转型过程中， 将投资者需求划分为交易与配置两大核心场景，构建了一个覆盖不同风险偏好和资产规模的全维度服务 体系。 张忆东认为，2026年港股投资要耐心稳行、戒骄戒躁，超额收益来自"成长乘势聚力+价值重构红利"。 "AI浪潮是时代之火，2026年将受益于美联储降息。AI热潮大概率更像1996年—1998年的互联网浪潮， 宏观经济、美联储政策、AI科技本身的进展，都跟2000年前后截然不同。"张忆东表示。 张忆东进一步表示，相比于2025年，2026年宏观经济的变化在于名义GDP同比增速有望改善、通胀温和 修复。2026年中国经济"火在结构"，也是股市机会之所在。2026年是"十五五"规划的开局之年，将秉承 高质量发展的战略导向，投资中国股市要重视结构性亮点、重视中长期 ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article highlights that Dongtu Technology's military product revenue is combined with civilian product revenue due to confidentiality requirements in the military industry [2] - The company benefits from the trends of national defense informatization and the localization of equipment, leading to stable overall development in its military business [2]

Core Viewpoint - The Ministry of Commerce of China has announced the inclusion of several foreign entities, particularly in the anti-drone technology sector, into the unreliable entity list, which will impose restrictions on their activities in China [2][4]. Group 1: Announcement Details - The announcement is made to safeguard national sovereignty, security, and development interests, based on various Chinese laws [2]. - The listed entities will face three main restrictions: prohibition from engaging in import and export activities related to China, prohibition on new investments within China, and prohibition on any transactions or cooperation with these entities by organizations or individuals in China, especially concerning data transmission and sensitive information [2]. Group 2: Listed Entities - The following foreign entities have been included in the unreliable entity list: 1. Dedrone by Axon 2. DZYNE Technologies 3. Elbit Systems of America, LLC 4. Epirus, Inc. 5. AeroVironment, Inc. 6. Exelis Inc. 7. Alliant Techsystems Operations LLC 8. BAE Systems, Inc. 9. Teledyne FLIR, LLC 10. VSE Corporation 11. Cubic Global Defense 12. Recorded Future, Inc. 13. Halifax International Security Forum 14. TechInsights Inc. and its branches [5][8].

Group 1 - The discussion is led by Chris Donaghey, CEO of Applied Energetics, indicating the company's leadership in a new paradigm of asymmetric warfare [2][3] - Steven Saltzstein, CEO of FORCE Family Office, emphasizes the ongoing evolution in the industry, suggesting that the current phase is just the beginning [3] - The introduction of Brigadier General retired, Samuel Luke Peterson, as a new advisory board member highlights the company's commitment to enhancing its strategic guidance [4]

Group 1 - The advanced military technologies showcased in the recent parade are closely linked to everyday life, with applications in various industries such as renewable energy and telecommunications [1][5] - The high-temperature coating technology from the J-20 fighter jet is being utilized to enhance the endurance of new energy batteries, while carbon fiber materials are being developed for flying cars [1] - The radar module technology is crucial for the stable operation of China's 5G network, indicating a significant crossover between military advancements and civilian technology [1] Group 2 - The Beidou navigation system, once dominated by Western countries, has become a major industry in China, projected to reach a market value of 600 billion yuan, impacting sectors from autonomous driving to precision agriculture [3] - The demand for military-themed products has surged, with a 40% increase in search volume for military models and a 50% rise in sales of building blocks on shopping platforms since August 22 [7] - A toy factory in Jiangxi is operating at full capacity, producing nearly 100 toy components per second, driven by high demand for military models and related memorabilia among young collectors [9]

Market Dynamics - Since the beginning of 2024, A-shares and Hong Kong stocks have alternated in performance, with Hong Kong stocks stabilizing in Q1 driven by the internet sector, followed by new consumption and innovative pharmaceuticals in Q2, leading to a compression of the AH premium to approximately 120 by June 2025 [2] - In July and August, A-shares continued to perform strongly while Hong Kong stocks faced pressure from tightening liquidity and competition in the platform economy [2] Funding Environment - The liquidity situation is improving, with the Hong Kong Monetary Authority passively injecting liquidity in April and May, leading to a temporary drop in HIBOR to near zero; however, by late June, excess liquidity was being withdrawn, and HIBOR rose rapidly to around 4% in August [3] - The Hong Kong dollar has moved away from the 7.85 weak-side guarantee, and the HIBOR-SOFR overnight interest rate spread has returned to a normal range of about 0.36%, indicating that the most stringent phase of the funding environment is likely over [3] Fundamental Outlook - The consensus EPS forecast for the Hang Seng Index for 2025 was revised down from 6.7% in early July to 2.35% by the end of August, primarily due to lowered profit expectations in the platform economy and increased competition in food delivery [4] - However, earnings expectations for sectors such as materials and healthcare within the Hong Kong Stock Connect have been significantly upgraded, and regulatory constraints on unfair competition are expected to reduce price wars in instant retail [4] - With the release of mid-year reports and a shift in outlook for Q4 towards "AI empowerment and efficiency recovery," the internet sector is anticipated to see a rebound in expectations [4] Long-term Framework - The long-term bullish logic for A/H shares is supported by policies and wealth migration, emphasizing a balance between an effective market and proactive government intervention [5] - The dynamic balance aims to stabilize the market while enhancing capital market functions through measures such as mergers and acquisitions, registration system deepening, and attracting long-term capital [5] Structural Changes in Funding - There is a noticeable acceleration in the entry of long-term funds such as social security, insurance, and wealth management into the market, with a clear trend of increased allocation to ETFs and institutional investments [7] - The decline in deposit and wealth management yields has created an "asset shortage" environment, suggesting that both residents and institutions have room to increase their equity allocation [7] Industry and Sector Trends - Emerging sectors such as AI computing chains, semiconductor equipment and materials, military technology, innovative pharmaceuticals, and humanoid robots are advancing from technology to commercialization [8] - This trend is beneficial for platform-based internet companies in AI commercialization as well as for hard technology and its upstream supply [8] External Variables and Capital Inflow - Historically, there is a strong negative correlation between the US dollar index and the Hang Seng Index; if the Federal Reserve enters a rate-cutting cycle in September and the dollar weakens in Q4, the previously high short-selling ratio in Hong Kong stocks may trigger a short-covering rally [9] - The potential for overseas capital to flow back into A/H shares is expected to increase [9] September Outlook - The market may experience fluctuations due to external interest rates and internal expectations, but the tightest phase of the funding environment has passed, and the fundamental narrative of "AI empowerment" is set to unfold [10] - Valuations and risk premiums remain attractive, suggesting that in a "fluctuating-upward" rhythm, sectors such as technology internet (AI), innovative pharmaceuticals, high-dividend stocks, and cyclical leaders with "anti-involution" characteristics are more cost-effective main lines [10] Strategy and Allocation - The strategy focuses on capturing rebound opportunities and the main line of "qualitative change," with a shift from "price wars" to "AI efficiency" in the internet/technology sector [10] - The innovative pharmaceutical sector is viewed positively, with September being a key window for positioning [10] - In the new consumption sector, performance is prioritized, emphasizing differentiation [10] - High-dividend and "anti-involution" sectors are also highlighted, with a focus on selecting companies with stable cash flow and sustainable dividends [10] Valuation Insights - The forecasted PE for the Hang Seng Technology Index is approximately 20.3 times, which is around 30% lower than levels seen since July 2020 [11] - The Hang Seng Index's TTM PE is about 12.3 times, significantly lower than that of the S&P 500, Nikkei, and European stocks [11] - The risk premium of the Hang Seng Index relative to 10-year government bonds is about 6.4%, making it attractive to global capital [11] Core Logic - Following the mid-year reports, the impact of "involution" is weakening, and the narrative for Q4 is shifting towards "AI empowerment," with a focus on commercialization and efficiency [12] - The direction includes AI applications, advertising efficiency improvements, and collaboration in cloud and computing services [12] - The strategy emphasizes holding quality leaders with strong execution capabilities during the concentrated period of academic and medical insurance directory catalysts in Q3 and Q4 [12]

Group 1 - The advanced military technologies showcased in the recent parade are closely linked to everyday life, highlighting their relevance beyond defense applications [1][3] - Technologies such as high-temperature coatings from the J-20 fighter jet are being utilized to enhance the endurance of new energy batteries, while carbon fiber materials are being developed for flying cars [3][7] - The Beidou navigation system, previously dominated by Western countries, is now a burgeoning industry in China, projected to reach a market value of nearly 600 billion, supporting various applications from autonomous driving to wildlife tracking [5][7] Group 2 - The recent military parade has sparked a significant increase in consumer interest, with military model searches rising by 40% and sales of building blocks increasing by 50% on shopping platforms [9] - A toy factory in Jiangxi is operating at full capacity, producing nearly 100 toy components per second, driven by high demand for military-themed collectibles and "red derivative products" among young consumers [11]

Core Viewpoint - The article highlights the strategic adjustments made by prominent fund managers in response to the market's structural characteristics, focusing on sectors like AI, innovative pharmaceuticals, and consumer goods, while also indicating a clear divergence in the consumer sector's performance [2][3][4]. Group 1: Fund Manager Strategies - Prominent fund managers have collectively increased their positions in high-growth sectors such as AI and innovative pharmaceuticals while making structural adjustments within the consumer sector [2]. - The technology and pharmaceutical sectors have emerged as core allocation directions, with significant investments in companies like BYD (increased by 184.78%) and Alibaba (increased by 161.10%) [2]. - Fund managers are focusing on "hard technology" in the tech sector, with AI computing and robotics becoming key investment areas [4]. Group 2: Consumer Sector Dynamics - The consumer sector has shown significant structural differentiation, with fund managers displaying contrasting attitudes towards traditional liquor and new consumption trends [3]. - Some fund managers have increased their holdings in traditional liquor stocks like Wuliangye and Moutai, while others have reduced their positions in these stocks, indicating a shift towards new consumption opportunities [3][4]. - The performance of consumer companies has influenced fund adjustments, with companies like Yili achieving strong revenue growth while others like Yanghe experienced profit declines [4]. Group 3: Future Outlook - Looking ahead to the third quarter, there is optimism regarding the innovative pharmaceutical sector, driven by global collaborations and anticipated clinical data disclosures [5]. - The consumer healthcare sector is expected to continue benefiting from rising health awareness among residents, with demand for home medical devices projected to grow steadily due to an aging population [5]. - The overall economic environment is seen as favorable for investment, although structural pressures may persist, with policies aimed at reducing excessive competition likely to improve corporate profitability [5].

Core Viewpoint - The sudden investigation of Liu Jiande, the actual controller and director of Kesi Technology, has led to a significant market reaction, with the company's stock price dropping by 20% and a market value loss exceeding 2.8 billion yuan in a single day, highlighting deep concerns over governance stability [1][2]. Group 1: Governance and Leadership Changes - Liu Jiande's investigation raises suspicions of potential misconduct, as the timing of his resignation as general manager and the failure to be re-elected as chairman suggest a prelude to the current crisis [2]. - Liu Jiande holds a 37.93% stake in Kesi Technology, making his personal crisis closely tied to the company's fate, as he is the core designer of the company's strategic transformation [2]. Group 2: Financial Performance and Risks - Kesi Technology has reported a cumulative net loss of over 700 million yuan from 2022 to 2024, with a 31.94% year-on-year increase in losses for 2024, amounting to 292 million yuan [2]. - The company’s revenue for Q1 2025 grew by 45.24%, yet it still faced a net loss of 58.35 million yuan, indicating a severe imbalance between R&D investment and output [2][3]. - As of the end of 2024, accounts receivable reached 746 million yuan, accounting for 214% of revenue, with 74% of these receivables overdue by more than one year [3]. Group 3: Strategic and Operational Challenges - The company has diverted 53.85% of its IPO funds, exceeding 1.9 billion yuan, to cover operational losses and debt repayment, while key projects have been stalled for years [4]. - The planned construction of the electronic information equipment production base has been delayed for four years, and the R&D technology center has made no progress, pushing completion to 2026 [4]. - Despite a 113% growth in new business areas like intelligent unmanned systems, their revenue contribution remains insufficient to support the overall business, exacerbating the financial losses [4].

Core Viewpoint - Kesi Technology, referred to as the "Chinese version of Palantir," experienced a significant stock drop of 14.36%, closing at 76.26 yuan per share, following the announcement of its actual controller Liu Jiande being placed under investigation by a national supervisory committee [1] Company Developments - Kesi Technology announced that it received notification regarding Liu Jiande's personal legal issues, which include a "detention notice" and "case filing notice" from a national supervisory committee [1] - The company stated that this situation is a personal matter for Liu Jiande and has not yet had a significant impact on the company's operations [1] - Following Liu Jiande's resignation as general manager, the company appointed a new general manager, indicating the availability of suitable senior management talent [1] Management Changes - The change in the position of the chairman is described as a normal transition process within the company [1]