"不妄自菲薄，也不自欺欺人，保持初心，专注行动" 文 丨 龚方毅 2026 年 1 月 1 日晚间，刚刚结束了滇藏换电贯通直播的蔚来创始人、董事长、CEO 李斌发布了一封 全员邮件。 他在信中肯定了蔚来过去一年取得的成绩。"谢谢大家在压力下没有退缩，用实际的成绩回馈了用户、 合作伙伴、股东和社会各界的信任与支持。" 2025 年，蔚来公司交付超过 32.6 万台新车，虽未能实 现四季度单月交付超 5 万的目标，但全年交付新车数创历史新高。 李斌说，过去一年公司进行了 "艰难但必要的组织变革"，通过加强全员经营意识和成本控制，才让体 系能力得以提升。他认为蔚来已逐步走出谷底。"纯电的黄金时代正在到来，" 李斌说，"市场正在证 明我们所选择的技术路线在正确的趋势和方向上。" 2025 年前 11 个月，国内新能源车销量超过六成是纯电，插混在经历了去年的超高增长后，受高基数 的影响，销量增速低于纯电以及新能源大盘。基于此，李斌乐观估计到 2030 年，国内新能源汽车渗 透率超过 90%、纯电占比将超过 80%。 展望 2026 年，"我们没有片刻放松的资格。" 他说，汽车行业的竞争已变成 " 3～5 个点效率差距的 ...

2025年12月，该公司的全场景科技旗舰SUV，蔚来全新ES8累计交付量突破4万辆，创下中国人民币40 万元以上纯电汽车的最快交付纪录。凭借行业领先的智能电动汽车技术，以及可充、可换、可升级的全 场景补能网络的支持，全新ES8巩固了其在大三排SUV细分市场的领先地位，充分展现出卓越的产品竞 争力及广泛的用户认可。 智通财经APP讯，蔚来-SW(09866)发布公告，公司于2025年12月交付4.81万辆汽车，创下月度新高，同 比增长54.6%。有关交付包括公司旗下蔚来品牌的高端智能电动汽车3.19万辆，公司旗下乐道品牌的家 庭智能电动汽车9154辆，以及公司旗下萤火虫品牌的智能电动高端小车7084辆。公司于2025年第四季度 交付12.48万辆汽车，创下季度新高，同比增长71.7%。于2025年全年，总交付量达到32.6万辆汽车，同 比增长46.9%。截至2025年12月31日，公司累计汽车交付量达99.76万辆。 ...

Core Insights - NIO-SW reported a total revenue of RMB 21.7939 billion (USD 3.0614 billion) for Q3 2025, representing a year-on-year growth of 16.7% [1] - The gross profit was approximately RMB 3.025 billion, showing a year-on-year increase of 50.7% [1] - The net loss for the quarter was RMB 3.4805 billion (USD 488.9 million), which is a 31.2% reduction compared to the previous year [1] Revenue and Sales Performance - Automotive sales revenue reached RMB 19.2023 billion (USD 2.6973 billion), a 15.0% increase compared to Q3 2024 [1] - The automotive gross margin improved to 14.7%, up from 13.1% in Q3 2024 and 10.3% in Q2 2025 [1] - The total vehicle deliveries for Q3 2025 were 87,071 units, marking a 40.8% increase year-on-year and a 20.8% increase from Q2 2025 [1] Strategic Developments - The CEO highlighted strong growth momentum driven by the competitiveness of NIO, Lada, and Firefly brand products, which continue to gain user preference in their respective segments [1] - The company is collaborating closely with supply chain partners to enhance production capacity, with expected total deliveries in Q4 projected between 120,000 to 125,000 units, representing a year-on-year growth of 65.1% to 72.0% [1] - The new NIO ES8 set a record for the fastest delivery of over 10,000 units in the Chinese market for electric vehicles priced above RMB 400,000 [1] Financial Efficiency - The automotive gross margin increased to 14.7% in Q3 2025, the highest level in three years, indicating improved profitability of products and services [2] - The company achieved a positive operating cash flow, maintaining a positive cash flow after capital expenditures [2] - With the support of an $1.16 billion equity issuance, the company has established a more robust balance sheet to facilitate sustainable long-term growth [2]

Core Viewpoint - NIO Inc. has announced a fundraising plan of $1 billion (approximately HKD 77.875 billion) to support its operations and technology development, amidst ongoing financial challenges and market reactions that have led to significant stock price declines [1][3][4]. Fundraising Details - The fundraising involves the issuance of approximately 181 million Class A ordinary shares, including American Depositary Shares (ADS) priced at $5.57 per share and Class A ordinary shares at HKD 43.36 per share [1]. - The expected settlement dates for the ADS and ordinary shares are around September 11 and September 17, 2025, respectively [1]. - The funds raised will be allocated to R&D for core technologies in smart electric vehicles, expanding the charging and battery swap network, and general corporate purposes [1]. Market Reaction - Following the announcement, NIO's stock price fell over 9% in pre-market trading, ultimately closing down 8.92%, resulting in a market capitalization loss of over $1.2 billion (approximately CNY 90 billion) [3][4]. - On September 11, NIO's Hong Kong stock opened lower at HKD 45.02 and closed down 1.76%, marking its lowest price in the last 14 trading days, with a market value decrease of HKD 18.57 billion [4]. Financial Performance - NIO has faced ongoing financial difficulties, with a net loss of approximately CNY 49.95 billion in Q2 and a total loss of CNY 117.45 billion for the first half of the year, a year-on-year increase of nearly 15% [8]. - The company reported negative operating cash flow of CNY 109.26 billion and negative financing cash flow of CNY 9.18 billion, indicating a significant cash flow issue [9]. - As of June 30, NIO had cash and cash equivalents of CNY 71.11 billion, down 63.2% from the beginning of the year, which is only sufficient to cover three months of operating costs [9]. Sales and Pricing Strategy - NIO's average selling price (ASP) dropped to CNY 224,000 in Q2, a decrease of nearly CNY 50,000 (18%) compared to the same period last year, negatively impacting its gross margin [14]. - The gross margin for NIO in the first half of the year was below 9.1%, significantly lower than competitors like Li Auto and XPeng, which had gross margins of 20.3% and 16.5%, respectively [16]. - The sales structure has shifted, with a significant portion of sales coming from lower-priced models, which is expected to further decrease the average selling price and impact financial performance [17]. Future Outlook - NIO aims to achieve monthly sales of 50,000 vehicles and a gross margin of 16% to 17% in Q4, but these targets are seen as challenging given the current financial and operational landscape [12][13]. - The company is also exploring additional revenue streams, such as technology services to other companies, although these revenues are currently unstable [9].

Core Viewpoint - Geely is positioned to challenge BYD's dominance in the NEV market, with expectations of revenue growth and improved profitability driven by domestic market share expansion and overseas growth initiatives [1][10]. Financial Performance - In 2Q25, Geely's revenue grew by 7.3% QoQ to RMB77.8 billion, while core net profit slightly decreased to RMB3.2 billion from RMB3.5 billion in 1Q25 [1][2]. - The gross margin improved by 1.3 percentage points QoQ to 17.1%, although it eroded by 0.7 percentage points YoY due to lower sales from higher-margin exports and increased marketing expenses [2][6]. - The company maintains a 2025 net profit forecast of RMB15 billion and raises the 2026 forecast by 13% to RMB20 billion, reflecting higher volume assumptions and positive margin outlook [1][6]. Market Strategy - Geely's management has outlined a comprehensive global expansion strategy, restructuring operations into five regional hubs to enhance local expertise while maintaining global coordination [3]. - The company aims to increase its domestic market share, having secured 11.44% of the NEV market in 1H25, and plans to launch several new models to fill product gaps in cost-sensitive segments [3][7]. - Geely's dual-track export strategy will include both ICE and NEV models, with a forecasted 50% YoY increase in overseas volume to 600,000 units in 2026 [8]. Technological Advancements - A major integration of Geely's intelligent driving units has been executed, consolidating teams to enhance technological capabilities and streamline resources [4][5]. - This consolidation is expected to reinforce Geely's leadership in autonomous driving technology and innovation [5]. Valuation - Geely's shares are currently trading at a significant discount, with a P/E ratio of 12x for 2025E and 9x for 2026E, compared to BYD's 18-20x [9]. - The target price has been raised to HK$32.00 based on a 15x 2026E P/E multiple, reflecting confidence in Geely's potential to close the valuation gap with BYD [10].