品牌战略聚焦，电动化和智能化齐发力，强势新车周期持续。新车大年，2025 年预计推出10 款全新新 能源车型，其中吉利品牌预期推出5 款新车及多款改款车，包括3 月上市的银河星耀8，年内还有两款 SUV 和两款轿车；极氪方面，4 月推出极氪007 GT，Q3推出极氪9X；领克方面，Q2 推出领克900 EM- P，年内上市中大型EM-P 轿车。智能化方面，全面拥抱智能化，智驾搭载率有望快速提升。银河全新 及改款产品都将搭载千里浩瀚不同层级的智驾方案，燃油车迭代全面搭载Flyme Auto 及千里浩瀚智 驾，首款SPAEvo 旗舰领克900 EM-P 首搭英伟达Thor 芯片及千里浩瀚智驾；极氪9X、领克900、吉利银 河M9 分别主搭载千里浩瀚H9、H7、H5 辅助驾驶方案。 银河、高端化、出海全面增长，强势新车周期支撑销量，2025Q3 营收同比高增长，市占率持续提升。 2025 年Q3 实现营业收入891.9 亿元，同比+26.5%，环比+14.7%。销量方面，2025Q3 累计总销量/银河/ 领克/极氪销量分别为76.1/32.7/8.7/5.3 万辆，同比+42.5%/+169.7%/+25.5%/- ...

Investment Rating - The investment rating for Geely Automobile is "Buy" and is maintained [7] Core Views - Geely Automobile reported a revenue of 239.48 billion yuan for the first three quarters of 2025, representing a year-on-year increase of 26.4%. Total sales reached 2.17 million vehicles, up 45.7% year-on-year, with a core net profit attributable to shareholders of 10.62 billion yuan, an increase of 59% year-on-year [2][4] - The new platform has empowered Geely to enter a new product era, with the GEA architecture supporting a new vehicle cycle. The brands Zeekr, Lynk & Co, and Galaxy are all performing well, and the transition to new energy vehicles is progressing smoothly, leading to increased profitability [2][8] - The company’s strong foundation in fuel vehicles and innovative overseas expansion strategies are opening new markets. The intelligent driving strategy is accelerating the enhancement of driving capabilities, indicating significant profit elasticity in the new vehicle cycle [2][8] Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In Q3 2025, Geely achieved a revenue of 89.19 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 26.5% and a quarter-on-quarter increase of 14.7%. Total sales for Q3 were 761,000 vehicles, with significant growth in the Galaxy and Lynk & Co brands [8] - The Q3 net profit attributable to shareholders was 3.82 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 59.3%, with a single vehicle profit of 5,000 yuan, up 11.8% year-on-year [8] Brand Performance - In Q3, Zeekr and Lynk & Co combined sales reached 140,000 vehicles, with total revenue of 31.56 billion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 9.1%. However, both brands reported a net loss of 460 million yuan for the quarter [8] Strategic Initiatives - Geely plans to launch 10 new energy models in 2025, with significant focus on electric and intelligent vehicles. The new models will feature advanced driving assistance systems, enhancing the company's competitive edge in the market [8] - The company is focusing on brand strategy, with a strong emphasis on electrification and intelligence, supported by a robust new vehicle cycle [8]

机构：国金证券 研究员：姚遥 业绩点评： 11月17日，吉利汽车发布25Q3财报，其中： 1、营收：Q3公司共计销售新车76.1万辆，同/环比+42.5%/+8.1%： 总计营收891.9亿元，同/环比+47.7%/+14.7%：我们计算Q3单车ASP11.7万元，同/环比+3.7%/+6.1%： 25Q1Q3公司共计销售新车216.9万辆，同比+45.6%，营收2394.8亿元，同比+26.4%，单车ASP11万元， 同比-13.2%； 行业竞争加剧，市场需求不及预期。 1、Q3公司业绩表现稳健，其中：1）车型结构好转，新能源拉动下出口逐渐恢复，同时Q2新车如领克 900、银河星耀8等均处中位数之上，带动单车ASP提升：2）但由于新能源车占比提升、Q3低毛利银河 A7等上市、且新能源毛利率低于燃油车，导致毛利率环比Q2小有下滑，体现为单车成本提升：3）公司 费用依旧稳健，费用率环比均下降：最终共同拉动公司Q3业绩表现稳健。 其中值得注意的是，在吉利银河销量表现强势下，规模效应和盈利结构均向上，单车利润也有所提升， 符合我们此前的量一价一利齐升的推断。我们重申，公司在低成本路线下面对市场竞争激烈和价格战， 是 ...

Core Viewpoint - 吉利汽车 reported strong performance in Q3 2025, with revenue reaching 89.2 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 27% and a quarter-on-quarter increase of 15% [1] Group 1: Financial Performance - In Q3 2025, 吉利汽车 achieved a net profit attributable to shareholders of 3.82 billion yuan, an increase of 1.4 billion yuan year-on-year and 0.2 billion yuan quarter-on-quarter [1] - The company sold 760,000 vehicles in Q3 2025, representing a year-on-year increase of 43% and a quarter-on-quarter increase of 7.9% [1] - The gross profit margin for Q3 2025 was 16.6%, up 1.2 percentage points year-on-year but down 0.5 percentage points quarter-on-quarter [1] Group 2: Cost Management - Sales expense ratio in Q3 2025 was 6.0%, up 1.2 percentage points year-on-year and down 0.1 percentage points quarter-on-quarter [1] - Management expense ratio was 1.5%, down 0.6 percentage points year-on-year and down 0.4 percentage points quarter-on-quarter [1] - R&D expense ratio was 4.9%, up 0.3 percentage points year-on-year and down 0.2 percentage points quarter-on-quarter [1] Group 3: Product Strategy and Market Outlook - 吉利汽车 is launching a new product cycle with competitive models such as 银河A7 and 银河星耀8, which have achieved monthly sales of over 13,000 and 10,000 units respectively [2] - The company expects to maintain strong sales momentum, with projected total sales of 3.04 million, 3.73 million, and 4.02 million vehicles for 2025-2027, representing year-on-year increases of 40%, 23%, and 8% respectively [2] - The introduction of high-end models is expected to significantly enhance the company's product structure and profitability [2] Group 4: Profitability Forecast - Projected net profit margins for 2025-2027 are 5.2%, 6.0%, and 6.4%, with attributable net profits of 17.8 billion, 24 billion, and 27.2 billion yuan respectively [3] - The core net profit estimates for the same period are 14.3 billion, 23 billion, and 26.2 billion yuan [3] - The company is considered a top pick for the upcoming recovery in the automotive sector due to its low valuation and strong growth potential [3] Group 5: Investment Recommendation - Based on the strong new product cycle and improved product structure, the profit forecasts for 2025-2027 have been revised upwards [3] - The target price for 吉利汽车 is set at 26.00 HKD, representing a potential upside of 51% based on a 10x PE ratio for 2026 [3]

Core Viewpoint - Geely Automobile (00175) demonstrated robust performance in Q3, with both revenue and sales increasing on a year-on-year and quarter-on-quarter basis, benefiting from model structure optimization and export recovery, alongside effective cost control, leading to enhanced overall profitability [1][2][3] Performance Analysis - Revenue: In Q3, the company sold 761,000 new vehicles, representing a year-on-year increase of 42.5% and a quarter-on-quarter increase of 8.1%. Total revenue reached 89.19 billion yuan, up 47.7% year-on-year and 14.7% quarter-on-quarter. The average selling price (ASP) per vehicle was 117,000 yuan, reflecting a 3.7% year-on-year and 6.1% quarter-on-quarter increase. For the first three quarters of 2025, the company sold 2.169 million new vehicles, a year-on-year increase of 45.6%, with revenue of 239.48 billion yuan, up 26.4% year-on-year [1][2] - Costs: After adjustments, the sales, administrative, and R&D expense ratios for Q2 2025 were 6.0%, 1.5%, and 4.9%, respectively, showing a decrease of 0.1 percentage points, 0.4 percentage points, and 0.2 percentage points quarter-on-quarter [1] - Profit: The gross profit margin for Q3 was 16.6%. After excluding abnormal exchange gains and non-financial asset losses, the actual net profit attributable to shareholders for Q2 was 3.96 billion yuan, increasing by 61.3% year-on-year and 20% quarter-on-quarter. The net profit per vehicle for Q3 was 5,200 yuan, up 13.2% year-on-year and 11% quarter-on-quarter. For the first three quarters of 2025, the gross profit margin was 16.5%, a year-on-year increase of 0.3 percentage points, with an actual net profit of 10.62 billion yuan, up 82.2% year-on-year, and a net profit per vehicle of 4,900 yuan, up 25.2% year-on-year [1][2] Operational Analysis and Outlook - Q3 performance was strong, driven by improved model structure and recovery in exports, with new models like Lynk & Co 900 and Galaxy Star 8 performing above median levels, contributing to ASP growth. However, the increase in the proportion of new energy vehicles and the introduction of lower-margin models like Galaxy A7 led to a slight decline in gross margin quarter-on-quarter, reflecting increased unit costs. The company maintained stable expense ratios, which decreased quarter-on-quarter, contributing to the overall strong performance [2] - Looking ahead, Q4 is expected to continue strong performance. The new energy segment is anticipated to maintain a trend of increasing volume, price, and profit, with the company solidifying its position as a market leader. New models such as Zeekr 9X and Galaxy M9 are expected to enhance model structure and further improve unit profitability. The traditional business segment is also expected to remain stable, with exports rebounding and fuel vehicle upgrades maintaining steady performance [2] Forecast and Investment Recommendations - The company is expected to maintain an upward trend in fundamentals, with strong product development capabilities and a robust new vehicle cycle. The focus should be on the recovery of market recognition. With low costs, strong blockbuster models, and a vigorous new vehicle cycle, the company is viewed positively for continued growth in volume, price, and profit. The profit forecasts for 2025, 2026, and 2027 remain unchanged at 16.6 billion, 19.68 billion, and 24 billion yuan, respectively, corresponding to PE ratios of 10.45, 8.81, and 7.24. The "buy" rating is maintained [3]

Core Viewpoint - Geely Automobile (00175) demonstrated robust performance in Q3, with both revenue and sales increasing year-on-year and quarter-on-quarter, benefiting from model structure optimization and export recovery, alongside effective cost control, leading to enhanced overall profitability [1][4] Performance Summary - **Revenue**: In Q3, Geely sold 761,000 new vehicles, representing a year-on-year increase of 42.5% and a quarter-on-quarter increase of 8.1%. Total revenue reached 89.19 billion yuan, up 47.7% year-on-year and 14.7% quarter-on-quarter. The average selling price (ASP) per vehicle was 117,000 yuan, reflecting a 3.7% increase year-on-year and a 6.1% increase quarter-on-quarter. For the first three quarters of 2025, total vehicle sales were 2.169 million, up 45.6% year-on-year, with revenue of 239.48 billion yuan, an increase of 26.4% year-on-year [1][2] - **Expenses**: After adjustments, the sales, administrative, and R&D expense ratios for Q2 2025 were 6.0%, 1.5%, and 4.9%, respectively, showing a decrease of 0.1 percentage points, 0.4 percentage points, and 0.2 percentage points quarter-on-quarter [2] - **Profit**: The gross profit margin for Q3 was 16.6%. Excluding exceptional foreign exchange gains and non-financial asset losses, the actual net profit attributable to shareholders for Q2 was 3.96 billion yuan, up 61.3% year-on-year and 20% quarter-on-quarter. The net profit per vehicle for Q3 was 5,200 yuan, increasing by 13.2% year-on-year and 11% quarter-on-quarter. For the first three quarters of 2025, the gross profit margin was 16.5%, up 0.3 percentage points year-on-year, with an actual net profit of 10.62 billion yuan, an increase of 82.2% year-on-year, and a net profit per vehicle of 4,900 yuan, up 25.2% year-on-year [2][3] Operational Analysis and Outlook - Q3 performance was strong, driven by improved model structure and recovery in exports, particularly in the new energy segment. The introduction of new models like Lynk & Co 900 and Galaxy Star 8 contributed to higher ASP. However, the increase in the proportion of new energy vehicles and the launch of lower-margin models like Galaxy A7 led to a slight decline in gross margin quarter-on-quarter, reflecting increased unit costs. Despite this, the company maintained effective cost control, with expense ratios decreasing across the board [3] - Looking ahead, Q4 is expected to continue the strong performance. The new energy segment is anticipated to maintain a positive trend in volume, price, and profit, with new models like Zeekr 9X and Galaxy M9 set to complete their delivery cycles, further improving model structure and releasing scale effects. The traditional business segment is also expected to remain stable, with exports rebounding and fuel vehicle upgrades maintaining steady performance [3] Forecast and Investment Recommendations - The outlook for the company's fundamentals remains positive, with strong product development capabilities and a robust new vehicle cycle. The company is expected to benefit from low costs, popular models, and a strong new vehicle cycle, making it a favorable investment opportunity in the autonomous vehicle sector. The forecast for net profit attributable to shareholders for 2025, 2026, and 2027 remains unchanged at 16.6 billion, 19.68 billion, and 24 billion yuan, respectively, corresponding to PE ratios of 10.45, 8.81, and 7.24. The "buy" rating is maintained [4]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, indicating an expected price increase of over 15% in the next 6-12 months [10]. Core Insights - The company's Q3 performance is robust, with new car sales reaching 761,000 units, representing a year-on-year increase of 42.5% and a quarter-on-quarter increase of 8.1%. Total revenue for Q3 is 89.19 billion yuan, up 47.7% year-on-year and 14.7% quarter-on-quarter [1]. - The company has shown a strong ability to improve its product mix, driven by the growth in the new energy vehicle segment and a recovery in exports. However, the gross margin has slightly declined due to the increased proportion of new energy vehicles, which typically have lower margins compared to traditional fuel vehicles [2]. - The company is expected to maintain strong operational performance in Q4, with continued growth in the new energy segment and stable performance in traditional business lines [2][3]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In Q3, the company achieved a gross margin of 16.6%, with a year-on-year increase of 1.0 percentage points. The actual net profit attributable to the parent company for Q2 was 3.96 billion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 61.3% [1]. - For the first three quarters of 2025, the company sold 2.169 million new cars, a year-on-year increase of 45.6%, with total revenue of 239.48 billion yuan, up 26.4% year-on-year [1]. Cost and Expenses - The company’s sales, administrative, and R&D expense ratios for Q2 were 6.0%, 1.5%, and 4.9%, respectively, showing a slight decrease from the previous quarter [1]. - The report highlights that the company has maintained a stable expense structure, with expense ratios decreasing quarter-on-quarter [2]. Future Outlook - The company is expected to continue its upward trajectory, with new models like the Zeekr 9X and Galaxy M9 set to enhance the product lineup and improve profitability [2][4]. - The report projects net profits for 2025, 2026, and 2027 to be 16.6 billion, 19.68 billion, and 24 billion yuan, respectively, corresponding to PE ratios of 10.45, 8.81, and 7.24 [4].

Core Viewpoint - Geely Automobile's October 2025 sales reached 307,000 units, marking a year-on-year increase of 35.5% and a month-on-month increase of 12.5%, with cumulative sales for January to October 2025 at 2.477 million units, up 44.3% year-on-year [1] Group 1: Sales Performance - October sales exceeded 300,000 units, with total and new energy vehicle sales hitting historical highs, allowing Geely to achieve its annual sales target of one million units ahead of schedule [1] - Breakdown of October sales by brand shows Geely brand at 245,000 units, Lynk & Co at 40,000 units, and Zeekr at 21,000 units, with year-on-year changes of +43.9%, +60.5%, and -31.1% respectively [1] - New energy vehicle sales in October reached 178,000 units, representing a year-on-year increase of 63.6% and accounting for 57.9% of total sales, up 10.0 percentage points year-on-year [1] Group 2: Product Strategy - In 2025, Geely plans to launch 10 new energy models, including 5 new models and several updated versions under the Geely brand, with significant releases scheduled throughout the year [2] - The company is focusing on smart technology, with new models expected to feature advanced driving assistance systems and the latest Nvidia Thor chip in flagship models [2] Group 3: Future Outlook - The GEA architecture supports a new product cycle, with positive trends across all brands, indicating a successful transition to new energy and potential for profit growth [3] - The company anticipates a net profit of 16.1 billion yuan for 2025, with a price-to-earnings ratio of 10.6X, maintaining a "buy" rating [3]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for Geely Automobile is "Buy" and is maintained [6]. Core Insights - Geely Automobile reported a total sales volume of 307,000 units in October 2025, representing a year-on-year increase of 35.5% and a month-on-month increase of 12.5% [2][4]. - Cumulative sales from January to October 2025 reached 2.477 million units, up 44.3% year-on-year [2][4]. - The company is expected to enter a new product era supported by the GEA architecture, with positive developments across its brands including Zeekr, Lynk & Co, and Galaxy [7]. - The transition to new energy vehicles is progressing smoothly, with scale effects expected to enhance profitability [7]. - Geely's strong foundation in fuel vehicles and innovative overseas expansion strategies are opening new markets [7]. - The company is set to launch 10 new energy models in 2025, with significant advancements in smart driving capabilities [7]. Summary by Sections Sales Performance - October 2025 sales reached 307,000 units, with Geely brand, Lynk & Co, and Zeekr sales at 245,000, 40,000, and 21,000 units respectively [7]. - Galaxy brand achieved 127,000 units in October, marking a 100.8% increase year-on-year [7]. - Exports in October totaled 42,000 units, up 22.6% year-on-year [7]. - New energy vehicle sales in October were 178,000 units, accounting for 57.9% of total sales, a year-on-year increase of 63.6% [7]. Product Strategy - Geely plans to launch 10 new energy models in 2025, including five new models and several facelifts [7]. - The company is enhancing its smart driving capabilities, with new models expected to feature advanced driving technologies [7]. Financial Outlook - The projected net profit for 2025 is 16.1 billion yuan, with a corresponding price-to-earnings ratio of 10.6X [7].

Core Insights - Geely Galaxy brand has achieved significant sales growth, reaching 127,476 units in October, a year-on-year increase of 101% and a month-on-month increase of 5%, marking a historical high [2] - The brand has sold a cumulative total of 1,002,000 units in the first ten months of the year, achieving its annual sales target ahead of schedule and becoming the fastest electric vehicle brand to reach this milestone [2] - Geely is repurposing the former SAIC-GM North Factory in Shenyang to increase production capacity for the Galaxy models, with an investment of approximately 890 million yuan [1][6] Production Capacity and Strategy - The production capacity for Galaxy models is currently under pressure due to rapid sales growth, with existing facilities in various locations having a combined annual capacity of nearly 1 million units [6] - Geely has decided not to build new factories or expand existing ones, focusing instead on optimizing existing production capacity and forming strategic partnerships [7] - The company is actively recruiting for various departments at the Shenyang facility to support the production ramp-up [1] Product Development - The Galaxy product lineup is continuously expanding, with the recent global launch of the new generation Galaxy Xingyao 6, available in seven variants priced between 68,800 to 99,800 yuan [3] - Several models under the Galaxy brand, such as the Galaxy E5 and Galaxy M9, have become bestsellers, contributing to the brand's strong market presence [2][6]