来源：掌控雷电大爷 美联储主席杰罗姆·鲍威尔已公开承认，委员会在如何平衡"稳定物价"与"最大化就业"这两大法定使命 上，存在着"强烈分歧"。这种根本性的战略犹豫，正外化为一场罕见的公开政策辩论：是否应在下周的 会议上再度扣动降息的扳机？而此后又将何去何从？ 分歧已达历史极值 一个世纪的理念之争 中性利率，在学术文献中常被称为"r-star"（源于模型中的数学符号）或"自然利率"。它作为一个无法直 接观测、只能通过经济表现反向推断的理论概念，已困扰了经济学家一个多世纪。尽管经济学巨擘凯恩 斯等曾质疑其实际效用，但在现代中央银行家的工具箱里，它仍占据着神圣的一席之地。 当美联储在今年连续降息超过一个百分点后，其内部正悄然浮现一道深刻的裂痕。决策者们对于那个被 称为"中性利率"的关键指标究竟位于何处，产生了自2012年以来最严重的分歧。这场看不见硝烟的争 论，正直接牵引着本月货币政策的走向，让每一次降息决定都如履薄冰。 纽约联储主席约翰·威廉姆斯是该理论的资深专家，他坚信这一理念居于"货币理论与实践的绝对核 心"。威廉姆斯曾警示历史教训：决策者若未能准确诊断中性利率和自然失业率的变动，可能引发深远 后果。他援引了上 ...

Group 1 - David Zervos, a candidate for the Federal Reserve Chair and Chief Market Strategist at Jefferies, argues that the perception of the Federal Reserve as independent is inaccurate, stating that political pressure on the Fed has been increasing [1] - Zervos highlights that Democratic lawmakers have been pressuring monetary policymakers to lower interest rates in recent years [1] - He mentions that historically, Treasury Secretaries and the government have attempted to influence the Fed Chair behind the scenes [1] Group 2 - Zervos criticizes current Fed Chair Jerome Powell for not commenting on fiscal debates during a time of increased government spending, suggesting that Powell operates from a leftist perspective [1] - He points out that the Fed's decision to lower interest rates by 50 basis points last September occurred less than two months before the election, which some Republicans believe aided the Democrats [1] - Zervos emphasizes that the ongoing reduction of the Fed's balance sheet has made monetary policy more restrictive than many realize, reinforcing the case for interest rate cuts [2] Group 3 - Zervos defines full employment as an unemployment rate below 3.5%, which is significantly lower than the current rate of 4.2% [2] - He asserts that the Fed has a dual mandate to achieve price stability and maximize employment, which is influenced by the current economic conditions [2]

Core Viewpoint - The Federal Reserve Governor, Christopher Waller, is set to deliver a speech focused on maximizing employment, indicating the central bank's ongoing commitment to labor market conditions and economic stability [1] Group 1 - The speech is anticipated to provide insights into the Federal Reserve's perspective on employment trends and potential policy implications [1] - The timing of the speech suggests a proactive approach by the Federal Reserve in addressing labor market dynamics [1]

Core Viewpoint - Gold prices experienced volatility, starting at $3365.22 per ounce, reaching a high of $3414.41 before declining to a low of $3288.63, ultimately closing at $3305.77, reflecting a daily drop of $59.45 or 1.77% [1][2]. Market Influences - Hawkish comments from Powell limited bullish sentiment in gold, while positive trade news, including a breakthrough trade agreement between the U.S. and the UK, boosted market optimism [2][11]. - The Bank of England's 25 basis point rate cut pressured the euro and supported the dollar, contributing to gold's decline [2][11]. Technical Analysis - Gold is facing short-term moving average resistance, with indicators suggesting a potential for further declines to support levels of $3260 or $3160 [2][13]. - The monthly chart indicates a bullish trend, but the current price action suggests a potential for high-level consolidation or a peak if it fails to break above $3500 [13][15]. Future Outlook - The market is expected to remain in a range-bound adjustment phase until further bullish catalysts emerge, with geopolitical tensions and ongoing tariff policies providing some support for gold prices [11][13]. - The anticipated end of the rate cut cycle by the end of the year may reduce gold's attractiveness, leading to a potential peak and correction phase [11][15].

美联储主席鲍威尔：最大化就业作为一个广泛而包容的目标并不意味着针对任何一个人。 ...