Market Overview - International gold prices fell again on July 28, with an opening price of $3,319.82 per ounce, a high of $3,345.30, a low of $3,301.77, and a closing price of $3,314.72 [1]. Economic Indicators - The Dallas Fed's business activity index for July recorded 0.9, exceeding market expectations of -9 and up from a previous value of -12.7, indicating slight economic expansion [2]. - The index for general business activity rose above zero for the first time since January, with a significant jump in the sub-index to 21.3, the highest in over three years [2]. - Labor market indicators showed positive trends, with increases in employment and working hours, although the new orders index remained negative [2]. Federal Reserve Insights - President Trump reiterated calls for the Federal Reserve to lower interest rates, suggesting a reduction of 3 percentage points would be beneficial for the economy [2][4]. - Current probabilities indicate a 96.9% chance that the Fed will maintain interest rates in July, with a 3.1% chance of a 25 basis point cut [4]. Trade Developments - President Trump announced plans to make a statement regarding drug tariffs soon, following a trade agreement with the EU [4]. - The largest gold ETF, SPDR Gold Trust, reported a decrease in holdings by 0.86 tons, bringing the total to 956.23 tons [4]. Technical Analysis - Gold prices have shown a downward trend, with a significant drop leading to a bearish outlook in the short term [7]. - The daily chart indicates a continuous decline over four trading days, suggesting a potential breakdown below the 60-day moving average [7]. - Suggested trading strategies include cautious short positions and specific entry points for both long and short trades [7].

贵金属周报 2025 年 7 月 28 日 贸易局势缓和，金银冲高回落 核心观点及策略 投资咨询业务资格 沪证监许可【2015】84 号 李婷 021-68555105 li.t@jyqh.com.cn 从业资格号：F0297587 投资咨询号：Z0011509 黄蕾 高慧 gao.h@jyqh.com.cn 从业资格号：F03099478 投资咨询号：Z0017785 王工建 wang.gj@jyqh.com.cn 从业资格号：F3084165 投资咨询号：Z0016301 赵凯熙 zhao.kx@jyqh.com.cn 从业资格号：F03112296 投资咨询号：Z0021040 敬请参阅最后一页免责声明 1 / 10 ⚫ 近期美国与其他国家的贸易谈判局势的变化是影响贵金 属市场的主要因素，金银价格走势随着谈判形势的紧张与 缓和的变化而波动。上周三美国与日本关税谈判达成协 议，市场对全球贸易局势趋稳的预期削弱了避险情绪，避 险资产贵金属走势承压。上周五受到美欧贸易谈判积极进 展和美元指数反弹的共同压制，贵金属价格再度下挫。 ⚫ 美国对日本实施的"对等关税"税率将从25%下调至15%， 该协议还包括日本向美 ...

Group 1 - The article discusses the recent performance of gold prices, highlighting a successful short-selling strategy implemented at levels of $3445-3535 per ounce, followed by a significant drop in prices after reaching overbought conditions [1] - The article notes that the recent fluctuations in trade tensions have cooled due to agreements between Japan and the US, which has reduced safe-haven demand for gold [1] - Technical analysis indicates that on the daily chart, gold is trading near the middle band of the Bollinger Bands, with MACD showing a bullish crossover and RSI indicating overbought conditions [1] Group 2 - The outlook for gold trading suggests aggressive traders should consider buying near the support level of $3300 per ounce, while more cautious traders may wait for a confirmation at $3250 [3] - For short positions, aggressive traders are advised to sell near the resistance level of $3400, while conservative traders should look to sell at $3450 [3] - Overall, the article emphasizes that the movements in the dollar and changes in trade dynamics significantly impact market sentiment towards gold prices, with future attention on Federal Reserve policies and trade agreements [3]

换资前言： 一篇文章的指引或许有限，但长期精准的分析才是稳步提升收益的关键。或许你见过无数分析与盈利案 例，却仍受亏损困扰——这往往是因过度综合复杂策略所致，而市场本质是"少数者盈利"的博弈。与其 分散参考，不如专注跟随专业思路：建立"入场、出场、风控"三位一体的交易体系，方能实现稳定盈 利。积少成多并非难事，关键在于科学规划与严格执行。分析团队做震荡行情准确率达到90%，做单边 行情准确率达到85%左右，这是我们实力的见证。我们的一对一指导从早上7点-凌晨1点提供全方位的 分析，盯单，守盘服务。我们的合作客户可以轻松的进行交投。 近期有哪些消息面影响黄金原油走势？后市黄金多空该如何研判？ 7.24黄金行情走势分析： 黄金技术面分析：不瞒你们说，早上我看到黄金时，也没想着直接做空，昨晚跌幅固然大，但谁知道它 有没有反弹呢，最起码也得临近3400点的时候再做一下空头尝试吧？几乎所有人都是这么想的，可等着 等着发现不对劲，这黄金似乎弱的挡不住，本来以为3380反抽后就能再去挑战3400了，没想到还能再慢 慢压下去的，甚至新低，一个午盘过后价格还在低点交投，在这种行情面前我还想等高空？肯定是没什 么机会的，尽管33 ...

Core Viewpoint - The gold market is currently in a consolidation phase around $3,300 per ounce, with investors awaiting clearer signals regarding interest rate policies and trade situations [1][2] Group 1: Market Conditions - Joe Cavatoni from the World Gold Council indicates that the recent imposition of a 50% tariff on copper imports by the U.S. government serves as a reminder that gold may also face similar tariff adjustments in the future [1] - The current price of gold reflects a lack of clarity among market participants regarding key driving factors, with prices remaining stable around $3,300 [2][3] - Gold has seen a significant increase of nearly 26% this year, which is notable compared to the average expected return rate of around 8% [3] Group 2: Supply and Demand - The annual growth rate of gold production is expected to remain between 1% and 2.5%, aligning with the World Gold Council's forecasts [3] - Small-scale artisanal mining contributes approximately 20% to the total gold supply, and the organization is taking measures to regulate this sector [3] - Central banks have been significant buyers of gold, accounting for about 20% to 25% of global annual gold consumption over the past three to four years [4] Group 3: Future Outlook - The World Gold Council anticipates that central banks will continue to be active in the gold market, with 50% of surveyed central banks planning to increase their gold holdings in the next 12 months [4] - A report on gold demand trends will be released soon, which is expected to show strong central bank demand for gold in the second quarter [4]

Group 1 - President Trump's renewed threat of high tariffs has created market tension, leading to a simultaneous sell-off in U.S. stock and bond markets as investors seek safety [1] - Canada faces a 35% tariff on exports not covered by the USMCA, while Japan and Brazil will see tariffs of 25% and 50% respectively, deviating from the previously expected 10% general tariff [1] - The market is concerned about the implications of Trump's strategy, which may indicate that trade negotiations are not progressing as expected, prompting a "maximum pressure" approach before tariffs take effect [1] Group 2 - European stock markets have reacted negatively, with the Global X DAX ETF dropping 1.9% over two days, marking the largest decline since April 8, although it remains up over 35% year-to-date [2] - The S&P 500, Nasdaq, and Dow Jones indices experienced declines of 0.33%, 0.22%, and 0.63% respectively, as investors remain cautious due to fluctuating trade news [2] - Large tech stocks, such as Nvidia, showed relative strength, while small-cap stocks, represented by the Russell 2000 index, fell by 1.3% [2] Group 3 - The U.S. Treasury market is under pressure, with long-term bonds typically rising in demand during market downturns, but gold has taken on a more prominent safe-haven role this year [3] - Gold prices increased by 0.94% to $3355.7, while the 30-year Treasury yield approached 4.957%, the highest level since May [3] - The market is characterized by new uncertainties, with a consensus emerging that investors should remain observant regarding how these policies will impact the real economy [3]

Gold - The U.S. non-farm payrolls increased by 147,000, exceeding the expected increase of 110,000, while the unemployment rate fell to 4.1%, lower than the previous value of 4.2% and the expected 4.3%, which is bearish for gold [1] - Following the non-farm report, the probability of a rate cut in July dropped from 23.8% to 5.2%, while the probability of maintaining the current rate rose to 94.8% [1] - Technically, gold experienced a sharp decline, touching a low of $3,311, and if it surpasses $3,344 today, it may continue its upward trend, potentially reaching $3,480 next week [1] Oil - President Trump announced a 20%-30% tariff increase on goods exported to the U.S. from over ten countries, indicating ongoing trade tensions that could impact the market [2] - OPEC+ is expected to announce an increase in oil production by 414,000 barrels per day starting in August, which may heighten concerns about oversupply and negatively affect oil prices [2] Seasonal Demand - The period from the last week of May to September 1 marks the summer travel season in the U.S., which typically boosts oil demand [3] - Despite OPEC+ increasing oil production, the current summer travel season is expected to drive strong oil demand, creating a mix of bullish and bearish factors [3] - Technically, oil has shown a fluctuating performance, with a resistance level at $67.50 and support at $65.80 [3] Nikkei 225 - The Nikkei 225 index rebounded to around 40,000 and has been maintaining a range-bound movement, indicating a correction since the rise on June 23 [4] - Short-term resistance is noted at 40,000, while a drop below 39,400 could lead to a target near 39,000 [4] Copper - Copper prices have been on an upward trend since April 9, recovering all losses from early April, indicating strong bullish momentum [5] - A recent decline from the $5.13 level has led to a focus on the support level at $4.98, with a potential deeper correction if this support is breached [5]

Fundamental Analysis - Gold prices are currently trading around $3,346, having risen 0.5% on Wednesday, marking the third consecutive day of gains, primarily driven by unexpectedly weak U.S. ADP employment data, which has heightened expectations for an early rate cut by the Federal Reserve [1][3] - The ADP report indicated a decrease of 33,000 private sector jobs in June, the first net decline since early 2023, contrasting sharply with the revised increase of 29,000 jobs in May, raising concerns about the health of the U.S. labor market [1][3] - The market's anticipation of a rate cut by the Federal Reserve has intensified, with the likelihood of a July cut rising from 20% to 23% following the data release, and the probability of a 25 basis point cut in September nearing 100% [3] - The U.S. fiscal policy landscape is adding complexity to the gold market, with a proposed tax and spending bill expected to increase debt by $3.4 trillion over the next decade, raising concerns about deficit spending and inflation [3] - Global trade dynamics are also influencing gold price volatility, as a trade agreement between the U.S. and Vietnam has alleviated some trade tension, contributing to a rise in investor risk appetite [4] Technical Analysis - On the daily chart, gold prices have shown signs of stabilization after a recent low of $3,247, forming a potential bullish reversal pattern, suggesting a possible challenge of resistance levels at $3,383 and above [5] - In the short-term, following a rebound from the $3,247 low, bullish momentum is expanding, with prices reaching a high of $3,365 before experiencing slight pullbacks, indicating ongoing upward potential [6] - Traders are advised to monitor key support levels around $3,337 and $3,316 for potential long positions, while resistance is noted at $3,365 and $3,383 [6]

Market Performance - The three major U.S. stock indices closed higher on Friday, with the Dow Jones up 1%, S&P 500 up 0.52%, and Nasdaq up 0.52%. The Dow gained 3.82% for the week, S&P 500 gained 3.44%, and Nasdaq gained 4.25% [2] - The S&P 500 and Nasdaq both reached all-time highs [2] - Major tech stocks mostly rose, with Google and Amazon up over 2%, Nvidia and Meta up over 1%, while Tesla and Microsoft saw slight declines [2] - Nike experienced a significant increase, rising over 15%, marking its largest single-day gain in four years [2] Chinese Stocks - The Nasdaq Golden Dragon China Index rose 0.22%, with a weekly gain of 3.49%. However, individual Chinese stocks showed mixed results [2] - Notable declines included Xiaopeng Motors down over 6% and Li Auto down over 1%, while Luckin Coffee rose over 3% [2] Trade Developments - Market attention was drawn to trade developments, with U.S. Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick indicating that the Trump administration is expected to reach agreements with ten major trading partners soon [2] - Lutnick mentioned that countries would be categorized appropriately by July 9, but there is a possibility of extending deadlines for further negotiations [2] Commodity Prices - International gold prices fell, with COMEX gold futures down 1.85% to $3286.1 per ounce, marking a weekly decline of 2.92% [3] - COMEX silver futures decreased by 2.06%, settling at $36.17 per ounce, with a slight weekly gain of 0.41% [3] - International crude oil futures saw a slight increase, with WTI crude oil futures up 0.43% to $65.52 per barrel, but the weekly decline was 12% [3] - Brent crude oil futures rose 0.06% to $67.77 per barrel, also reflecting a weekly drop of 12% [3]

Market Overview - International gold prices experienced a decline on June 19, opening at $3,392.74 per ounce, reaching a high of $3,395.71, a low of $3,347.48, and closing at $3,369.18 [1] News Highlights - The EU is pushing for a trade agreement with the US similar to the UK's, with Europe increasingly willing to accept a 10% baseline tariff [2] - Canada will adjust its existing counter-tariffs on US steel and aluminum products on July 21 [3] Geopolitical Situation - Reports indicate that President Trump is cautious about bombing Iran, partly due to concerns that a regime change could lead to a situation similar to Libya. The decision on whether to participate in Israeli airstrikes on Iranian nuclear facilities has been postponed for two weeks [4] - The SPDR Gold Trust, the world's largest gold ETF, holds 947.37 tons, unchanged from the previous trading day [4] - According to CME's FedWatch, there is a 91.7% probability that the Federal Reserve will maintain interest rates in July, with an 8.3% chance of a 25 basis point cut. In September, the probability of maintaining rates is 36.1%, with cumulative cuts of 25 basis points at 58.9% and 50 basis points at 5.0% [4] Technical Analysis - Gold prices showed a downward trend, with a significant drop to a low of $3,347 during the trading day. The market is currently experiencing a bearish sentiment, with short-term resistance levels identified [7] - The trading strategy suggests a cautious approach, maintaining a bearish outlook for short-term trading [8]