2026年将呈现出哪些特点？可以概括为两个关键词：不确定性与可能性。 文/吴晨 不确定性不言而喻。一边是以"做交易"为行事逻辑的特朗普持续打破全球既有秩序：以自我为中心、以 利益为上，政策缺乏持续性，全世界都需要适应他的多变。如果说这种不确定性更多体现为随个人偏好 起伏的"随机波动"，那么，技术狂飙所带来的不确定性，其背后则蕴含着多种可能性。 一种可能是AI泡沫的破裂。历史上的技术浪潮，大多经历过膨胀与破裂的过程，AI不可能例外。但如 果放长时间尺度来看，我们仍处在AI发展的1.0阶段，类似于世纪之交的互联网1.0时期。因此，即便泡 沫破裂，也不会改变AI长期进化的方向。 另一种可能性，是AI对职场带来的巨大冲击。2026年是AI Native（AI原住民）毕业的第一年。他们也 是第一批在GPT环境中成长起来、同时又目睹入门级工作被大规模替代的一代人。AI将如何重塑职场， 2026年或将给出初步答案。 回顾过去四分之一个世纪，iPhone时刻与诺基亚危局，或许是理解不确定性与可能性最具代表性的案 例。新技术只有抵达"iPhone时刻"，才能真正改变消费者行为；而在位者一旦误判趋势，往往会从巅峰 迅速坠落。"门 ...

Group 1 - The core idea emphasizes the importance of balancing "release vitality" and "effective regulation" to foster innovation and economic growth [1][2] - "Release vitality" aims to eliminate institutional barriers that hinder productivity, allowing market forces to play a decisive role in resource allocation [2][3] - Effective regulation is necessary to prevent market chaos and ensure healthy economic development, highlighting the need for a legal and credit-based economy [3] Group 2 - The government's role is to maintain a dynamic balance between "release" and "regulate," ensuring a fair competitive environment and optimizing the business climate [3] - The integration of effective market mechanisms with proactive government intervention is seen as a unique institutional advantage that supports sustainable development [3] - The implementation of precise "release" strategies and strong "regulation" measures is essential for fostering innovation while ensuring stability in the economy [3]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint emphasizes the need for China to strengthen its domestic economy in response to external challenges, particularly in the context of the changing international landscape during the "15th Five-Year Plan" period [1] - The "15th Five-Year Plan" faces a more turbulent international environment compared to the "14th Five-Year Plan," with increased instability and uncertainty in global economic growth [1] - The relationship between international economic and trade struggles and domestic economic work is identified as a primary issue that needs to be addressed [1] Group 2 - There is a clear observation of a strong supply and weak demand imbalance, indicating a need to shift focus from production expansion to enhancing consumption and demand [2] - The adjustment in the "15th Five-Year Plan" from "allowing flexibility and maintaining control" to "allowing flexibility and ensuring good governance" reflects a deepening of the governing philosophy [2] - The concept of "effective market and proactive government" should focus on ensuring market-driven resource allocation, removing barriers to domestic market development, and establishing a competitive market order [2] Group 3 - The relationship between security and development is highlighted, stating that development is essential for security, but security must also serve development [2] - A dynamic balance between security and development is necessary, with high-quality development serving as the foundation for security [2]

Core Viewpoint - The central economic work conference emphasizes the need to formulate regulations for the construction of a unified national market and to deeply address "involutionary" competition [1][3]. Group 1: Unified National Market - The unified national market is a core support and key reform for the "dual circulation" new development pattern, particularly for domestic circulation [1][3]. - It aims to break local protectionism and market segmentation, allowing production factors to flow and allocate more freely and efficiently across the country, thereby enhancing the resilience to external shocks [1][3]. - Achieving this goal requires deep institutional reforms, including improving the fiscal and tax system and statistical accounting systems to address the underlying contradictions of local protection and market segmentation [1][3]. Group 2: Involutionary Competition - Distinguishing and addressing "involutionary competition" is crucial in the process of building a unified national market [2][4]. - "Healthy competition" drives companies to win markets through technological innovation and quality improvement, while "involutionary competition" leads to low-level repetitive construction and destructive price wars, ultimately undermining the industrial foundation [2][4]. - The key to balancing regulation and vitality lies in the better combination of "effective markets" and "proactive government," where the government enforces laws and unified standards to curb disorderly low-price competition and delineate competition boundaries [2][4].

Core Viewpoint - The 2026 Policy Address of the Macao Special Administrative Region emphasizes proactive governance and a clear development path aimed at economic recovery and diversification, with a focus on improving the business environment and enhancing economic vitality [1][3]. Group 1: Governance and Policy Approach - The core governance philosophy is summarized as "proactive government, effective market," indicating a shift from merely setting rules and regulations to actively guiding and serving the market [3][4]. - The government aims to enhance efficiency through reforms such as "delegation, regulation, and service," creating a more favorable environment for market development and diversified industries [3][4]. Group 2: Key Initiatives for Economic Diversification - The establishment of an "Industrial Guidance Fund" is a significant initiative aimed at addressing the financing challenges faced by high-tech industries, which are often viewed as high-risk by private investors [4][5]. - The report elevates the "deep integration with Hengqin" as a top priority to overcome the limitations of Macao's small market and limited resources, providing a physical space and broader market for diversified industries [4][5]. Group 3: Measurement of Economic Diversification Success - The effectiveness of economic diversification should be measured by structural indicators such as the GDP contribution of new industries, particularly the "1+4" plan, which focuses on four emerging sectors [5][6]. - Changes in the labor market structure, including the employment of local talent in new industries and their compensation, are crucial indicators of whether diversification leads to quality job creation [6]. - Economic resilience metrics, such as the diversification of tourist sources and government revenue, are essential to assess the overall strength and risk resistance of the economy [6]. Group 4: Regional Cooperation and Integration - The report emphasizes a shift from project-based cooperation to building common platforms and deep functional integration, such as creating an "International University City" to attract global talent [7]. - Infrastructure initiatives like the "pre-positioned cargo station" at Macao International Airport aim to embed Macao's free port functions into national logistics systems, enhancing its role as a key logistics node [7]. Group 5: Beneficiaries of the Policy Address - Local small and medium-sized enterprises (SMEs), entrepreneurs, and related employees are expected to benefit significantly from the report's emphasis on improving administrative efficiency and the business environment [8]. - The "Industrial Guidance Fund" and support for the "1+4" industries will open new development avenues for SMEs beyond traditional sectors [8]. Group 6: Positive Signals to Society and Investors - The report conveys a strong commitment to reform and action, addressing deep-seated issues within the government and enhancing governance effectiveness [9]. - It outlines a clear path for development with specific initiatives like the "Industrial Guidance Fund" and "deep integration with Hengqin," reducing policy uncertainty for local and international investors [9]. - The report emphasizes inclusive development, ensuring that economic growth benefits all segments of society, which is crucial for attracting and retaining talent and ensuring long-term investment [9].

Group 1 - The article emphasizes the significance of a large consumer market, highlighting that Henan has a population of 100 million and over 11 million business entities, which provides a substantial market advantage [2] - The "Chengming Model" represented by the Chengming Food Industry Park integrates production, supply, and consumption through "five chains coupling" and "three networks integration," fostering multi-category champion enterprises and optimizing resource allocation nationwide [2] - The effective market is supported by proactive government measures that enhance infrastructure, streamline business processes, and ensure fair competition, thereby reducing hidden costs and institutional barriers for enterprises [2] Group 2 - The government in Henan is focused on precise actions, aiming to eliminate barriers, mitigate risks, and address shortcomings to facilitate the market's decisive role [3] - Henan plans to continue the integration of an effective market with a proactive government by deepening reforms to create a market-oriented, law-based, and international business environment while encouraging enterprises to adapt to domestic demand changes [3] - The collaboration between the "invisible hand" of the market and the "visible hand" of the government is expected to provide strong momentum for sustainable economic development [3]

Core Viewpoint - The article emphasizes the necessity of accelerating the construction of a new development pattern in China, focusing on building a unified national market to strengthen domestic circulation and enhance economic resilience while addressing international uncertainties [1] Group 1: Building a Unified National Market - Establishing a unified national market is a key reform for enhancing domestic circulation and stimulating internal demand, as highlighted by Xi Jinping [1] - The 20th Central Committee's Fourth Plenary Session stresses the importance of a strong domestic market as a strategic foundation for Chinese modernization and calls for the removal of barriers to market construction [1] Group 2: Combining Establishment and Removal - The approach of "establishing" and "removing" should be integrated, where "establishing" focuses on creating necessary institutional rules and "removing" aims to eliminate outdated regulations that hinder fair competition [2] - A unified property rights protection system and a negative list for market access are essential for promoting a strong domestic market [2] Group 3: Breaking Down Institutional Barriers - There is a need to eliminate institutional barriers that restrict economic circulation, such as local protectionism and market segmentation [3] - Strengthening anti-monopoly enforcement and ensuring equal market access for all entities are crucial steps in this process [3] Group 4: Focusing on the Real Economy - The real economy is fundamental for national strength, and the article advocates for a balanced development between the real and virtual economies [4] - Emphasis is placed on advancing manufacturing capabilities and fostering innovation in key technologies to enhance economic self-reliance [4] Group 5: Promoting Supply and Demand Interaction - The article highlights the importance of creating a dynamic balance between supply and demand, where new demand leads to new supply and vice versa [5] - A modern circulation system and effective market information transmission mechanisms are necessary for achieving this balance [5] Group 6: Streamlining Administration and Empowering Markets - The government should reduce direct intervention in market activities while enhancing regulatory oversight to maintain order and fairness [7] - The focus should be on creating a conducive environment for various business entities to thrive [7] Group 7: Central-Local Coordination - Strengthening coordination between central and local governments, as well as among various departments, is essential for building a unified national market [8] - Encouraging regional market integration and collaboration can enhance overall development efficiency [8]

Core Viewpoint - The 20th Central Committee's Fourth Plenary Session emphasizes the need to invigorate various business entities, enhance the market-oriented allocation of factors, and improve macroeconomic governance efficiency, which is crucial for the high-quality development of the private economy and the formation of new productive forces [1]. Group 1: Market Dynamics and Government Role - The concept of an "effective market" provides direction for corporate innovation and development, where products and technologies must withstand market scrutiny to create real value [1]. - The role of a "proactive government" is to create a stable, fair, and transparent development environment for businesses through legal and institutional arrangements, which has been supported by recent laws like the Private Economy Promotion Law [1]. - The establishment of 18 production bases nationwide by the company is a result of the combined effects of market mechanisms and government service efficiency, reflecting improvements in the business environment [1]. Group 2: Commitment to Carbon Neutrality - The company is committed to integrating into the "dual carbon" goals during the 14th Five-Year Plan period by focusing on product high-endization, operational digitization, and global market expansion to contribute to a clean, low-carbon, safe, and efficient modern energy system [2].

Core Insights - Hong Kong can leverage its talent and financial advantages to deeply integrate into the national development framework of China [1][3] Group 1: China's Advantages in the Fourth Industrial Revolution - China possesses three core advantages for leading the Fourth Industrial Revolution: a strong talent pool, a vast market capable of scaling technologies, and the most comprehensive industrial sectors globally [3] - Key fields such as artificial intelligence, chip manufacturing, and biopharmaceuticals are areas where China is expected to achieve significant advancements [3] Group 2: Hong Kong's Role in National Development - Hong Kong's new productive forces are centered around talent and research, supported by five world-class universities and numerous top scientists [3] - The integration of Hong Kong's research capabilities with the industrial ecosystem of the Guangdong-Hong Kong-Macao Greater Bay Area can effectively translate into actual industrial value [3] Group 3: Financial Capital and Economic Foundation - As an international financial center, Hong Kong has significant advantages in financial capital, with a per capita GDP exceeding $50,000, the highest among all Chinese cities [3][4] - This economic foundation supports Hong Kong in maximizing its talent and research value while providing effective pathways for developing new productive forces [3] Group 4: Collaborative Economic Growth - Economic growth requires a synergy between an "effective market" and a "proactive government," where the market stimulates initiative and the government addresses business development challenges [4] - If Hong Kong continues to leverage its capital market functions and demonstrate proactive governance, it can become one of the most competitive cities globally with the highest income levels [4]

Core Viewpoint - The establishment of the New Structural Economics Research Center at Fuzhou University and the keynote speech by Professor Lin Yifu highlight the need for innovative economic theories that address the profound changes in the global political and economic landscape, particularly for developing countries [1][5]. Group 1: Event Overview - The establishment ceremony of the New Structural Economics Research Center and the 707th Jiaxi Forum took place at Fuzhou University, attended by over 500 participants including government officials, academicians, and students [1]. - The event was co-hosted by Fuzhou University Library, the School of Economics and Management, and the Academic Affairs Office [1]. Group 2: Keynote Insights - Professor Lin Yifu analyzed the deep implications of the "unprecedented changes in a century," emphasizing that traditional Western theories are insufficient for the development practices of developing countries [5]. - He elaborated on the New Structural Economics as a system of independent theoretical innovation, focusing on factor endowment structures and the endogenous nature of economic structures [5]. - Lin stressed the importance of the synergy between "effective markets" and "proactive governments" in promoting high-quality economic development [5]. - He proposed that China should leverage its comparative advantages by combining the latecomer advantages of traditional industries with the innovative opportunities of the digital economy to drive industrial upgrading and high-quality development [5]. Group 3: Academic and Cultural Impact - The Jiaxi Forum provided a valuable opportunity for students and faculty to engage directly with top scholars, enhancing academic perspectives and fostering theoretical confidence and cultural awareness [11]. - The event is seen as significant for promoting campus cultural development and academic discipline growth [11].