有色金属反内卷

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方正中期期货有色金属日度策略-20250814
Fang Zheng Zhong Qi Qi Huo· 2025-08-14 03:08
Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content found. Group 2: Core Views of the Report - The non - ferrous metals sector continues to oscillate, with a slight upward trend. The weakening of the US dollar and the easing geopolitical situation have boosted market sentiment. Domestic industrial products are showing signs of anti - involution, benefiting non - ferrous metals and related products [12][13]. - The suspension of the 24% tariff for 90 days between China and the US provides more room for industry adjustment, which is beneficial to industrial products. China's favorable policies, such as real estate and personal consumption loan subsidy policies, also have a positive impact on the market [12]. - The market's expectation of a Fed rate cut in September has increased due to the lower - than - expected inflation data in the US in July, which is conducive to the rise of non - ferrous metals prices [12]. Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 First Part: Non - ferrous Metals Operating Logic and Investment Recommendations - **Macro Logic**: The non - ferrous metals sector oscillates. The suspension of tariffs, China's favorable policies, the easing geopolitical situation, and the increasing expectation of a Fed rate cut all have a positive impact on the non - ferrous metals market. The market should pay attention to relevant economic data this week [12][13]. - **Variety Analysis** - **Copper**: The exemption of US refined copper import tariffs will change the global copper trade flow. The supply - demand fundamentals of Shanghai copper are gradually becoming more balanced, and it is expected to rebound in the short term. The recommended strategy is to buy on dips [3][14]. - **Zinc**: The supply is increasing, the demand is weak, and the inventory is rising. It is recommended to take short - term long positions and short on rallies in the medium term [4][14]. - **Aluminum Industry Chain**: The aluminum market is in a state of shock. It is recommended to wait and see or take small short positions. The alumina market has regional supply - demand mismatches, and it is recommended to hold short positions cautiously [5][14][15]. - **Tin**: It is in a range - bound state, and the recommended strategy is to buy on dips and sell on rallies [6][14][15]. - **Lead**: The supply and demand are increasing, and it is recommended to take long positions on dips and use option double - selling strategies [7][8][14]. - **Nickel and Stainless Steel**: The supply of refined nickel is in excess, and the demand for stainless steel is weak. It is recommended to take short - term long positions on nickel and long positions on stainless steel in the short term, and short on rallies in the medium term [9][14][17]. 3.2 Second Part: Non - ferrous Metals Market Review - The closing prices and price changes of various non - ferrous metal futures are presented, including copper, zinc, aluminum, alumina, tin, lead, nickel, stainless steel, and casting aluminum alloy [18]. 3.3 Third Part: Non - ferrous Metals Position Analysis - The latest position analysis of the non - ferrous metals sector shows the net long - short strength comparison, net long - short position differences, changes in net long and short positions, and influencing factors of different varieties [20]. 3.4 Fourth Part: Non - ferrous Metals Spot Market - The spot prices and price changes of various non - ferrous metals are provided, such as copper, zinc, aluminum, alumina, nickel, stainless steel, tin, lead, and casting aluminum alloy [21][23]. 3.5 Fifth Part: Non - ferrous Metals Industry Chain - For each non - ferrous metal variety, relevant industry chain charts are presented, including inventory changes, processing fees, and price trends [25][29][31]. 3.6 Sixth Part: Non - ferrous Metals Arbitrage - For different non - ferrous metal varieties, charts related to arbitrage are presented, such as the ratio of domestic to foreign prices, basis, and spreads between different contracts [62][63][66]. 3.7 Seventh Part: Non - ferrous Metals Options - For various non - ferrous metal varieties, charts related to options are presented, including historical volatility, implied volatility, trading volume, and open interest [80][82][85].