Core Viewpoint - The Chinese commodity market experienced a significant surge in prices for precious and non-ferrous metals, with multiple products reaching historical highs, driven by various market factors and government policy announcements [2][9][12]. Group 1: Price Movements - Precious metals and non-ferrous metals collectively surged, with platinum futures on the Shanghai Futures Exchange hitting a record high of 709.85 yuan per gram, marking a monthly increase of 61.9% [2]. - Silver futures also rose sharply, reaching 18,658 yuan per kilogram, with a total trading volume of 267.69 billion yuan, making it the largest contract by trading volume in the futures market [4]. - Copper futures peaked at 99,730 yuan per ton, closing at 98,720 yuan per ton, reflecting a 3.60% increase [5]. - Lithium carbonate futures surged by 8.12%, reaching a new high of 131,000 yuan per ton since November 2023 [6]. Group 2: Market Drivers - The recent surge in non-ferrous metals prices was catalyzed by a government announcement emphasizing the optimization of traditional industries, which raised expectations for a contraction in supply growth for aluminum and copper [9]. - International macroeconomic factors, including expectations of a shift in U.S. Federal Reserve monetary policy and rising geopolitical tensions, have also contributed to increased demand for precious metals as safe-haven assets [12][13]. Group 3: Supply and Demand Dynamics - The copper market is expected to face supply constraints due to recent mining accidents and declining ore grades, which are anticipated to drive prices higher in the long term [13]. - The zinc market is showing signs of recovery, with expectations of increased supply from new smelting capacities and a potential tightening of supply by 2026, which could lead to a bullish trend in zinc prices [14]. Group 4: Industry Performance - The non-ferrous metals industry is projected to see significant revenue growth, with a reported income of 2.82 trillion yuan in the first three quarters of 2025, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 9.3% [17]. - The net profit for the industry is expected to rise by 41.55%, with energy metals showing the most substantial profit growth of 385.53% year-on-year [17]. Group 5: Investment Strategies - Investment strategies are focusing on companies with strong resource reserves, scale, and integrated supply chains, while suggesting a cautious approach for retail investors during market volatility [19]. - Recommendations include building a diversified portfolio with leading copper and aluminum companies, gold ETFs for hedging, and targeting undervalued mining companies for potential value appreciation [19]. Group 6: Future Outlook - The non-ferrous metals market is anticipated to enter a sustained bull market in 2026, driven by global economic recovery and improved supply-demand dynamics [20].

作者 | 哥吉拉 数据支持 | 勾股大数 据（www.gogudata.com） 12 月 26 日，在海外市场因节日休市的背景下，中国商品市场迎来年内最壮观的一幕。 贵金属与有色金属价格集体飙涨，多个品种刷新历史纪录。 前日 还被监管出手 " 降温 "的广期所铂期货主力合约 ， 今天继续 "顶风"涨停， 开盘即 快速 封死涨停板，涨幅 高达 9.99% ，报 709.85 元 / 克，创下该品种上市以来的最高纪录。 截至目前该品种本月涨幅以高达 61.9% ，成为当月涨幅最大品种。 沪银主力 也继续飙升 ，盘中一度涨超 8.5% ，价格飙升至 18658 元 / 公斤，最后收涨 6.6% ，全日成交高达 2676.9 亿元，成为 期市 成交额最大的合约。 还有沪铜主力 也出现加速 疯涨，盘中最高冲至 99730 元 / 吨，离 10 万元大关仅一步之遥，最终收涨 3.60% 报 98720 元 / 吨。 碳酸锂主力合约 也 暴涨 了 8.12% ，最高触及 131000 元 / 吨，创下 2023 年 11 月以来的新高。 股市方面， 得益于期货多个有色品种的集体飙升，今日贵金属以及锌、铜、铅、钴、镍等工业 ...

黄金 高位震荡，回撤后再上攻，支撑4100–4200 涨幅放缓，中枢抬升，均价偏强 货币属性托底，高位区间运行 央行购金、降 息预期、美元走弱；风险：美元反弹、获利了结、降息推迟[__LINK_ICON] 白银 弹性大，高位波动加剧，支撑62–64 工业（光伏/电子）+金融属性共振，上行延续 供需紧平衡，长期向好 库存下降、投 机资金流入；风险：工业需求疲软、监管收紧[__LINK_ICON] 铂金 超买后回调，支撑1900–1950，企稳后再冲 供应缺口持续，氢能/燃料电池需求加持，强势延续至2026上半年 缺口大概率 延续至2029，长期上行趋势明确 供给刚性、资金轮动；风险：回收放量、需求不及预期 关键结论与建议 截至2025年12月24日，按当前宏观与供需共振的主线，不同品种的强势持续性与关键节点如下（以美元/盎司为单位，截至当 日现货/期货高位附近），同时需警惕高位波动与回撤风险。 核心判断（时间维度） 品种 短期（1–3个月） 中期（3–12个月） 长期（12个月+） 关键驱动/风险 钯金 补涨后回调，支撑1650–1700 弱势震荡，涨幅收敛，脉冲机会减少 汽油车需求下滑，替代加速，回报率与稳定 ...