6 证券研究报告 点评报告 2025 年 12 月 5 日 晨会纪要 核[心Ta观bl点e_：Summary] 第一创业证券研究所 一、产业综合组： 根据路透社新闻，AMD 首席执行官苏姿丰表示，该公司已获得向中国出口部分 MI 308 芯片的许可，如果出口这些芯片，公司准备向美国政府缴纳 15%的税款。这基 本符合美国总统特朗普 8 月表示其政府已与英伟达和 AMD 达成协议的说法。目前 美国国会正在讨论对中国的芯片出口管制问题，英伟达的 CEO 也在近日表示中国 不需要"阉割"的芯片，从上述动态看，后续特朗普放松 AI 芯片对华出口的概率 在持续上升，配合国内算力芯片的进展，我们认为这都有利于国内 AI 应用的探索 和发展，降低市场对当前 AI 投资泡沫化的忧虑。 世界黄金协会(WGC)周四发布的报告预计，2026 年黄金价格有望再上涨 15%至 30%。 WGC 指出，美债收益率下行、地缘政治风险高企以及显著增强的避险需求叠加， 将为黄金提供极为强劲的顺风。结合近期银、铜、锡、钨、铜铝等有色小品种和 大宗有色金属都有创出新高的价格，我们继续看好有色金属行业高景气度的持续。 风险提示： 对上述事件发展趋势 ...

Core Viewpoint - The non-ferrous metals sector is experiencing significant growth, with the Non-Ferrous Metal Leaders ETF (159876) reaching a new high and attracting substantial investment, indicating strong market interest and confidence in the sector [1][4]. Group 1: ETF Performance - The Non-Ferrous Metal Leaders ETF (159876) saw an intraday price increase of over 2.5%, currently up 2.04%, setting a new record since its listing [1]. - As of the latest data, the ETF has received a net subscription of 12 million units, with a total capital inflow of 350 million yuan over the past 20 days [1]. - The ETF's latest scale reached 635 million yuan, marking a historical high [1]. Group 2: Stock Performance - A total of 27 non-ferrous metal stocks have hit the daily limit up in the past month, accounting for nearly 20% of the sector [3]. - Notable stocks include Baiyin Nonferrous, Chuanjiang New Material, Huayu Mining, and Zhongfu Industrial, all of which have reached the daily limit up [1][3]. - The copper sector has the highest proportion of limit-up stocks at 37%, while gold and rare earth sectors also exceed 10% [3]. Group 3: Financing and Investment Trends - The financing balance for the non-ferrous metals sector has significantly increased, reaching 113.942 billion yuan, up nearly 6.274 billion yuan since the end of September [4]. - The net financing amount for the sector ranks second among 31 primary sectors, only behind the electronics sector [4]. Group 4: Market Outlook - The non-ferrous metals industry maintains a high level of prosperity, with precious metals influenced by factors such as U.S. Federal Reserve interest rate cuts and geopolitical conflicts, leading to international gold prices surpassing 4,000 USD [5]. - Industrial metals like copper and aluminum are experiencing price increases due to supply constraints from Indonesian mine shutdowns and a weak U.S. dollar [5]. - The rare earth sector is also seeing strong prices due to tightened export control policies [5]. Group 5: Investment Strategy - A diversified investment approach through the Non-Ferrous Metal Leaders ETF (159876) is recommended to capture the overall sector's performance while mitigating risks associated with investing in single metal industries [7]. - The ETF passively tracks the CSI Non-Ferrous Metal Index, with weightings in copper, gold, aluminum, rare earths, and lithium at 27.6%, 14.5%, 13.1%, 10.4%, and 8.4% respectively [7].

Group 1 - The core viewpoint indicates that the non-ferrous metal industry in China is experiencing growth, with a 7.0% year-on-year increase in industrial added value from January to May, and a significant 19.9% increase in fixed asset investment [1] - Strategic metals are gaining market attention due to their resource scarcity and increasing demand in new energy sectors, with optimistic outlooks from separation enterprises and traders regarding rare earth oxide prices [1] - Industrial metal prices are currently fluctuating, with aluminum prices rising by 2.34% this week and 4.62% for the month, while copper prices face upward pressure due to macroeconomic policies and supply constraints [1] Group 2 - The LME and SHFE aluminum inventories have decreased by 2.38% and 5.02% respectively, indicating a tightening supply chain in the aluminum industry [1] - Copper supply remains tight due to ongoing production halts in the Democratic Republic of Congo, which may lead to expectations of reduced output due to declining smelting processing fees [1] - Zinc prices have shown a slight recovery with a weekly increase of 0.86%, although inventory pressures persist, highlighting the overall vulnerability in the aluminum supply chain and strong long-term price support for copper [1]