中诚信国际认为，在矿端供应偏紧、下游需求韧性较强的背景下，2026年有色金属行业整体保持较高景 气度；铜、铝价格中枢上移趋势明确，其中电解铝供需紧平衡状态将延续，电网、储能、新能源车等需 求托底，且铜价高位下"铝代铜"渗透加速，进一步强化铝的结构性支撑逻辑。冶炼加工环节则因加工费 低迷、行业竞争加剧而持续承压，行业利润正加速向资源自给率高、成本控制能力强的企业集中。 有色ETF泰康(159163)紧密跟踪中证有色金属矿业主题指数，中证有色金属矿业主题指数从有色金属行 业中选取40只拥有有色金属矿产资源储量的上市公司证券作为指数样本，反映有色金属矿业主题上市公 司证券的整体表现。 消息面上，中国五矿化工进出口商会发布通知，将于2026年3月25日举办稀土和稀有金属出口政策及形 势说明会。通知称，近日，国家有关部门加强了针对日本的两用物项出口管理，叠加此前稀土及钨锑钼 等稀有金属被列入出口管制，企业出口相关产品时面临更加严格的管理。为帮助会员企业熟悉相关政策 和出口注意事项，本次会议将邀请商务部和海关总署有关部门领导参加会议并发言，就相关产品的出口 政策和形势进行解读，同时也有助于政府部门了解企业出口面临的问题。 ...

www.ccxi.com.cn www.ccxi.com.cn 行业展望 联络人 作者 企业评级部 | 陈田田 010-66428877 | | --- | | ttchen@ccxi.com.cn | | 刘紫萱 010-66428877 | | zxliu@ccxi.com.cn | 其他联络人 王梦莹 010-66428877 mywang01@ccxi.com.cn 中诚信国际 中国有色金属行业 中国有色金属行业展望，2026 年 2 月 在矿端供应偏紧、需求韧性较强的背景下，预计 2026 年有色金属行 业保持较高景气度，全球财政与货币政策调整、贸易摩擦、地缘政 治等因素将对行业发展形成扰动，基本金属价格中枢存在上行或高 位震荡预期；加工费低迷、行业竞争加剧令冶炼加工环节承压，行 业利润将进一步向资源自给率高、成本控制能力强的企业集中，整 体信用水平保持稳定。 中国有色金属行业展望为维持稳定，中诚信国际认为未来 12~18 个 月行业总体信用质量不会发生重大变化。 核心观点 1 2026 年 2 月 目录 核心观点 1 分析思路 2 行业基本面 2 行业财务表现 14 结论 22 附表 23 中诚信 ...

Group 1: Industry Overview - AMD has received permission to export certain MI 308 chips to China, indicating a potential easing of AI chip export restrictions by the U.S. government, which may benefit domestic AI applications and reduce concerns over an investment bubble in AI [3] - The World Gold Council (WGC) forecasts a 15% to 30% increase in gold prices by 2026, driven by declining U.S. Treasury yields, heightened geopolitical risks, and strong demand for safe-haven assets, suggesting a favorable outlook for the precious metals sector [3] Group 2: Advanced Manufacturing - In November 2025, 24,000 new energy heavy trucks were added, marking a 40% month-over-month increase and a 176% year-over-year increase, setting a new monthly sales record. Cumulatively, 161,000 units were sold from January to November, reflecting a 189% year-over-year growth, indicating sustained high growth rather than a temporary spike [6] - Key regions such as Shanghai and Shanxi are leading in new energy heavy truck sales, with Shanghai representing port and urban distribution scenarios, while Shanxi, Hebei, and Sichuan are significant for resource transportation. The growth is expected to expand as infrastructure and supportive policies develop [6] Group 3: Consumer Sector - Recent trials by brands like Mixue Ice City and Gu Ming in various cities for breakfast dairy products at a price point of 5 yuan indicate a strategic entry into the breakfast market, which is valued at approximately 1.7 trillion yuan, with the external breakfast segment growing at 8-10% annually [8] - The breakfast market presents a significant opportunity, particularly for chain tea and coffee brands leveraging existing store networks and supply chains to capture market share in this new segment, potentially driving same-store sales growth [8]

Core Viewpoint - The non-ferrous metals sector is experiencing significant growth, with the Non-Ferrous Metal Leaders ETF (159876) reaching a new high and attracting substantial investment, indicating strong market interest and confidence in the sector [1][4]. Group 1: ETF Performance - The Non-Ferrous Metal Leaders ETF (159876) saw an intraday price increase of over 2.5%, currently up 2.04%, setting a new record since its listing [1]. - As of the latest data, the ETF has received a net subscription of 12 million units, with a total capital inflow of 350 million yuan over the past 20 days [1]. - The ETF's latest scale reached 635 million yuan, marking a historical high [1]. Group 2: Stock Performance - A total of 27 non-ferrous metal stocks have hit the daily limit up in the past month, accounting for nearly 20% of the sector [3]. - Notable stocks include Baiyin Nonferrous, Chuanjiang New Material, Huayu Mining, and Zhongfu Industrial, all of which have reached the daily limit up [1][3]. - The copper sector has the highest proportion of limit-up stocks at 37%, while gold and rare earth sectors also exceed 10% [3]. Group 3: Financing and Investment Trends - The financing balance for the non-ferrous metals sector has significantly increased, reaching 113.942 billion yuan, up nearly 6.274 billion yuan since the end of September [4]. - The net financing amount for the sector ranks second among 31 primary sectors, only behind the electronics sector [4]. Group 4: Market Outlook - The non-ferrous metals industry maintains a high level of prosperity, with precious metals influenced by factors such as U.S. Federal Reserve interest rate cuts and geopolitical conflicts, leading to international gold prices surpassing 4,000 USD [5]. - Industrial metals like copper and aluminum are experiencing price increases due to supply constraints from Indonesian mine shutdowns and a weak U.S. dollar [5]. - The rare earth sector is also seeing strong prices due to tightened export control policies [5]. Group 5: Investment Strategy - A diversified investment approach through the Non-Ferrous Metal Leaders ETF (159876) is recommended to capture the overall sector's performance while mitigating risks associated with investing in single metal industries [7]. - The ETF passively tracks the CSI Non-Ferrous Metal Index, with weightings in copper, gold, aluminum, rare earths, and lithium at 27.6%, 14.5%, 13.1%, 10.4%, and 8.4% respectively [7].

Group 1 - The core viewpoint indicates that the non-ferrous metal industry in China is experiencing growth, with a 7.0% year-on-year increase in industrial added value from January to May, and a significant 19.9% increase in fixed asset investment [1] - Strategic metals are gaining market attention due to their resource scarcity and increasing demand in new energy sectors, with optimistic outlooks from separation enterprises and traders regarding rare earth oxide prices [1] - Industrial metal prices are currently fluctuating, with aluminum prices rising by 2.34% this week and 4.62% for the month, while copper prices face upward pressure due to macroeconomic policies and supply constraints [1] Group 2 - The LME and SHFE aluminum inventories have decreased by 2.38% and 5.02% respectively, indicating a tightening supply chain in the aluminum industry [1] - Copper supply remains tight due to ongoing production halts in the Democratic Republic of Congo, which may lead to expectations of reduced output due to declining smelting processing fees [1] - Zinc prices have shown a slight recovery with a weekly increase of 0.86%, although inventory pressures persist, highlighting the overall vulnerability in the aluminum supply chain and strong long-term price support for copper [1]