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策略晨报:预计指数震荡“慢牛”上行,科技股热点扩散分化,出现高低切换现象-2025-03-19
British Securities· 2025-03-19 03:03
Investment Rating - The industry is rated as "stronger than the market," indicating a positive outlook with expectations that the industry index will outperform the CSI 300 index over the next six months [19]. Core Viewpoints - The report anticipates a "slow bull" market for A-shares in the medium to long term, with structural bull market characteristics prevailing despite potential short-term fluctuations [2][10]. - The human-shaped robot sector has seen significant growth, with a nearly 50% increase since January 7, 2025, while the overall robotics industry has risen approximately 25% during the same period [7][10]. - The semiconductor sector is also experiencing strong performance, driven by increasing global demand for AI and high-performance computing, with expectations of over 15% growth in the global semiconductor market by 2025 [8][10]. Summary by Sections A-share Market Overview - The report notes that the A-share market is currently in a phase of overall recovery, with major indices showing collective gains after recent adjustments [5][10]. - The market sentiment is active, with a total trading volume of 17,210 billion yuan, and major indices such as the Shanghai Composite Index and Shenzhen Component Index showing positive movements [6][10]. Sector Performance - The human-shaped robot sector is highlighted as a long-term investment opportunity, supported by strong internal growth dynamics and favorable government policies, with expected annual revenue growth exceeding 20% during the 14th Five-Year Plan [7][10]. - The semiconductor sector is projected to benefit from national policy support and increasing market demand, with a forecasted market size of 697.1 billion USD in 2025, reflecting an 11% year-on-year growth [8][10]. Future Market Expectations - The report emphasizes the expectation of more proactive fiscal policies and moderately loose monetary policies in 2025, which are anticipated to support economic recovery and shift demand from exports to domestic consumption [3][11]. - The upcoming "Two Sessions" in March 2025 will be crucial for determining the economic targets and policies that will guide market movements [3][11].