耐世特系列 车中旭霞 深度报告： 《 智能驾驶系列专题：线控转向加速落地，线控底盘大势所趋 》——20250626 点评报告 ： 《 耐世特（01316.HK）优于大市上半年净利润同比增长 304%，海外盈利加速修复 》-20250821 核心观点 上半年净利润同比+304% 2025H1耐世特收入22.42亿美元，同比+7%；EPS收入7.04亿美元，同比+9%；净利润0.63亿美元，同比+304%；净利率2.83pct，同比+2.07pct。分区域看，1）北美区收 入11.38亿美元，同比+1.7%；EBITDA利率7.56%，同比-0.25pct；2）亚太区收入6.87亿美元，同比+15.46%；EBITDA利率16.84%，同比-0.76pct；3）EMEA&LATAM 收入4.01亿美元，同比+9.56%；EBITDA利率8.76%，同比+6.73pct。海外盈利修复，业绩反转加速兑现。 盈利加速修复，上半年净利率同比提升2pct 利润端，2025H1公司毛利率11.55%，同比+1.50pct；净利率2.81%，同比+2.05pct。公司研发/销售/管理/财务费用率分别为3.35%/0.49%/3 ...

Core Viewpoint - The company reported strong performance in 1H25, with total revenue and net profit significantly exceeding expectations, primarily driven by growth in the Asia-Pacific region [3][4]. Group 1: Financial Performance - Total revenue for 1H25 increased by 6.8% year-on-year to $2.24 billion, accounting for 51% of the full-year revenue forecast [3]. - Gross margin improved by 1.5 percentage points to 11.5%, while EBITDA rose by 16.8% to $230 million [3]. - Net profit surged by 304.5% to $63 million, representing 57% of the annual net profit forecast [3]. Group 2: Regional Business Growth - The Asia-Pacific region's revenue grew by 15.5% year-on-year to $690 million, increasing its total revenue share by 3 percentage points to 31% [4]. - EMEASA region revenue also saw a 9.4% increase to $400 million, while North America’s revenue share decreased by 2 percentage points to 51% [4]. - EBITDA margin in the Asia-Pacific region decreased by 0.7 percentage points to 16.9%, whereas EMEASA's EBITDA margin increased by 6.8 percentage points to 8.8% [4]. Group 3: New Orders and Business Expansion - The company secured $1.5 billion in new orders in 1H25, with 47% from Asia-Pacific, 30% from EMEASA, and 23% from North America [4]. - The company anticipates adding $5 billion in new orders for the full year 2025, with significant projects in North America and Europe [5]. - The company is leveraging its technological advantages to expand into new business areas, including steer-by-wire systems and software solutions for smart vehicles [5].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, with an updated target price of HKD 8.72, corresponding to approximately 20 times the 2025 EPS [3][5]. Core Insights - The company's performance in the first half of 2025 exceeded expectations, with total revenue increasing by 6.8% year-on-year to USD 2.24 billion, accounting for 51% of the full-year revenue forecast. Net profit surged by 304.5% year-on-year to USD 63 million, representing 57% of the annual net profit forecast [1][3]. - The growth in the Asia-Pacific region is a significant driver of the company's strong performance, with revenue from this region increasing by 15.5% year-on-year to USD 690 million, contributing to 31% of total revenue [1]. - The company is expanding its order book, with a forecasted addition of USD 5 billion in new orders for 2025, including projects in North America and Europe [2]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In 1H25, the company reported a gross margin of 11.5%, up by 1.5 percentage points year-on-year, and an EBITDA of USD 230 million, reflecting a 16.8% increase year-on-year [1]. - The EBITDA margin for the Asia-Pacific region was 16.9%, while the EMEASA region saw an EBITDA margin of 8.8%, up by 6.8 percentage points year-on-year [1]. Revenue and Profit Forecast - The company’s total revenue is projected to grow from USD 4.207 billion in 2023 to USD 5.055 billion by 2027, with a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of approximately 6.7% [4]. - The net profit attributable to the parent company is expected to increase significantly from USD 37 million in 2023 to USD 234 million by 2027, with a notable growth rate of 129.3% in 2025 [4][8]. Order and Market Expansion - The company has successfully secured new orders in various regions, with 47% of new orders coming from the Asia-Pacific region, 30% from EMEASA, and 23% from North America [1][2]. - The management anticipates that the company will continue to leverage its technological advantages in steering systems to expand into new business areas, particularly in the field of drive-by-wire chassis systems [2].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Positive" investment rating for the industry [10]. Core Insights - The report highlights that high-level intelligent driving is accelerating the penetration of steer-by-wire (SBW) systems, which are expected to replace traditional mechanical chassis. The steer-by-wire technology is currently in the product introduction phase and is anticipated to enter mass production in 2025. The market for steer-by-wire is projected to reach 68.3 billion yuan by 2030, with a CAGR of 7.9% from 2023 to 2030 [3][9]. Summary by Sections Introduction - The demand for automotive intelligence is driving the continuous upgrade of intelligent driving systems, with L2 and above levels expected to penetrate over 50% of the market. The steer-by-wire system, currently with a penetration rate of less than 1%, has significant growth potential [6][25]. Trends - The transition from mechanical steering to electric steering and now to steer-by-wire is evident. The electric power steering (EPS) market is nearing saturation, with a penetration rate close to 100%. The steer-by-wire system is expected to become a key component in L3 and above autonomous driving, with a projected domestic penetration rate of 30% by 2030 [7][49]. Market Structure - The EPS market is primarily dominated by foreign companies, with the top five players holding significant market shares. Domestic companies are expected to catch up in the steer-by-wire market, with some already achieving mass production [8][9]. Investment Recommendations - The report suggests that the steer-by-wire system is on the verge of mass production, presenting substantial growth opportunities for domestic companies. It recommends companies like Top Group and Berteli, which are making significant progress in this area [9][11].

伯特利（603596.SH）系列点评九 发布员工持股计划 助力长期成长 2025 年 08 月 01 日 ➢ 事件：7 月 31 日，公司发布 2025 年第一期员工持股计划（草案），覆盖 公司核心技术（业务）骨干、中层管理人员（总计≤258 人），股票来源为公司 回购专用证券账户内已回购的股份，合计不超过 180 万股，占公司当前总股本的 0.30%，员工受让价格为 24.97 元/股，员工自筹资金总额不超过人民币 4,494.60 万元，本员工持股计划的份数上限为 4,494.60 万份。 资料来源：Wind，民生证券研究院预测；（注：股价为 2025 年 7 月 31 日收盘价） 推荐 维持评级 [Table_Author] 分析师 崔琰 执业证书： S0100523110002 邮箱： cuiyan@mszq.com 分析师 白如 执业证书： S0100524080008 邮箱： bairu@mszq.com ➢ 发布员工持股计划 绑定人才助力长期成长。1）激励对象覆盖广泛：本次激 励对象包括公司核心技术（业务）骨干、中层管理人员（总计≤258 人），覆盖 人数较多，且 预 计 2025-2030 年 ...

Market Overview - The Shanghai Composite Index has stabilized above 3400 points, indicating a potential recovery in market confidence [1] Rare Earth Permanent Magnet Sector - The rare earth permanent magnet sector has seen significant gains, with companies like Beikong Technology and Zhongke Magnetic Materials hitting their upper limits [3] - Recent policy signals include stricter regulations on rare earth mining and new innovation policies in Shenzhen, alongside a surge in demand from the electric vehicle and wind power sectors [3] - The National Development and Reform Commission has set a target for new energy vehicle sales to exceed 10 million units by 2025, which will drive demand for rare earth permanent magnet materials [3] - Emerging sectors such as humanoid robots and low-altitude economy are expected to bring tenfold demand growth in the long term [3] Automotive Parts Sector - Companies like Quanfeng Automotive and Disengli have also seen significant stock price increases due to dual drivers from policy and market [3] - The recent "old-for-new" policy has led to over 5 million vehicles receiving subsidies in May alone, with the penetration rate of new energy vehicles surpassing 38% [3] - Domestic companies are accelerating the replacement of imports due to cost and efficiency advantages, positioning leaders like Zhongding Holdings and Yatai Holdings as potential core players in the global supply chain [3] Financial Sector - The financial sector has shown strong performance, with companies like Nanhua Futures and Xinda Securities reaching their upper limits [4] - This growth is attributed to a combination of policy measures, including reserve requirement ratio cuts and increased insurance capital entering the market [4] - Financial stocks are characterized by high elasticity but also significant volatility, making them suitable for medium to long-term investment strategies [4] CRO Sector - The CRO sector has faced challenges, with companies like Lianhua Technology nearing their lower limits [4] - The difficulties stem from industry cycles and structural changes, including financing challenges for domestic biotech firms and increased competition leading to price wars [4] - The decline in gross margins for leading companies like Tigermed, dropping below 38%, indicates a tough environment [4] - However, this situation may present opportunities for market share growth for surviving companies post-industry consolidation [4]

Core Insights - The automotive industry in China is experiencing rapid growth, with production and sales exceeding 10 million units for the first time in the first four months of the year [2] - The transition from traditional to new energy vehicles is reshaping the automotive landscape, with various regions focusing on developing their unique strengths to create competitive clusters in smart and connected new energy vehicles [3][4] Industry Trends - The automotive production landscape is changing, with traditional automotive hubs losing their advantages while new cities emerge as leaders in the new energy vehicle sector [4] - Data from the National Bureau of Statistics indicates a shift in the top five provinces for automotive production from Guangdong, Shanghai, Jilin, Hubei, and Chongqing in 2017 to Guangdong, Anhui, Chongqing, Jiangsu, and Shandong by 2024 [4] - The rapid growth of new energy vehicles has led to significant production increases in provinces like Guangdong, Shandong, Anhui, Jiangsu, and Zhejiang, while traditional fuel vehicle production has declined in some regions [4] Regional Developments - Chongqing has proactively developed a world-class smart connected new energy vehicle industry cluster, aiming for over 10% of national production by 2025 [5] - Hefei has emerged as a new player in the automotive industry, with its new energy vehicle production skyrocketing from 3.40 million units in 2017 to over 137.61 million units by 2024, capturing 10.5% of the national total [5] Challenges and Issues - The slow transition of traditional automotive provinces is negatively impacting local economies, leading to declining revenues and potential business failures [6] - There are increasing instances of disruptive behaviors that hinder industry transformation, including blind investments by local governments and local protectionism that restricts market access for non-local enterprises [9][10] Policy Responses - The government has recognized the need to address local protectionism and has implemented measures to promote a unified national market for new energy vehicles [11] - Recent regulations aim to curb blind investments and ensure fair competition in the automotive sector, with a focus on optimizing the development environment [11][12] Future Outlook - The upcoming "15th Five-Year Plan" period is expected to see a shift in the growth rate of new energy vehicle production from rapid to steady growth, with significant technological advancements anticipated [12][13] - Local governments are encouraged to adopt innovative strategies tailored to their unique circumstances, avoiding a one-size-fits-all approach to automotive industry development [13]

Group 1 - The automotive steering system is gradually transitioning from EPS to steer-by-wire technology, which offers better responsiveness, enhanced autonomous driving capabilities, and improved emergency steering safety [1] - The steer-by-wire system is essential for L3+ autonomous driving, with significant advancements since its first mass production application in the 2013 Infiniti Q50 [1] - The company is experiencing a recovery in its main business profitability and is building a comprehensive steer-by-wire chassis product portfolio, integrating trends such as electrification, automation, and software-defined vehicles [1] Group 2 - The company's net profit margin has significantly improved, with a projected net profit of $61.72 million in 2024, a 68.1% increase from $36.74 million in 2023 [2] - The company secured project orders totaling $6 billion in 2024, with 31% from new business, including multiple steer-by-wire orders, showcasing its strong competitiveness [2] - The company plans to strategically expand into the steer-by-wire chassis field with the release of rear-wheel steering (RWS) and electronic mechanical brake (EMB) systems in the first half of 2025, further enhancing future growth potential [2] Group 3 - The company is forecasted to achieve revenues of $4.469 billion, $4.772 billion, and $5.068 billion from FY2025 to FY2027, with year-on-year growth rates of 4.5%, 6.8%, and 6.2% respectively [2] - The projected net profit for the same period is $121 million, $162 million, and $186 million, reflecting growth rates of 96.2%, 34.1%, and 14.4% respectively [2] - Given the rapid profit growth phase, the company has a target price of HKD 7.61 per share, indicating a 24% upside potential from the current price, with a corresponding FY2025E PE of approximately 19 times [2]

车展的流量效应褪去，汽车本身重新成为主角。 "今年车展的流量不如往年"。4 月 23 日，2025 上海车展首个媒体日结束后，有部分行业人士、媒体 同行们表达了类似的观点。回顾过去一年的国内 A 级车展，往往是首日即爆满，车企高管走到哪，人 群就簇拥在哪。 事实上，今年上海车展真正的流量高峰在公众日。这个五一假期，车展和外滩一样成为了上海的一张 新名片。这场首次延长至五一假期的汽车盛会，累计吸引了超百万人前来观看。 如果参考历史更悠久的汽车展览会，产品展示和技术交流才是它们存在的意义。像慕尼黑车展，将展 区分为免费向公众开放的城市展厅，以及面向行业人士的室内展馆；还有像巴黎车展，更是把展馆作 为一个公众性的活动，学校老师还会组织学生们去车展现场参观。 这一届上海车展，悄然成为了中国汽车行业的一次转折点：车企和公众的关注焦点，从过去的营销造 势，转向了产品技术实力与用户价值。车展终于回到正轨，聚焦汽车的本质。 流量光环褪去，造车回归本质 2017 年，国内有接近 300 家造车新势力。在那一年的上海车展上，他们悉数登场，争奇斗艳。对于这 些新的汽车品牌，用户认知度是一大短板。除了通过放大声量来扩大品牌影响力之外 ...

Core Viewpoint - The company reported strong financial performance in Q1 2025, with significant year-on-year growth in revenue and net profit, driven by multiple product lines and a robust pipeline of new energy projects [1][2]. Financial Performance - In Q1 2025, the company achieved revenue of 2.638 billion yuan, representing a year-on-year increase of 41.83% [1] - The net profit attributable to shareholders was 270 million yuan, up 28.79% year-on-year [1] - The net profit after deducting non-recurring items was 266 million yuan, reflecting a growth of 38.61% [1] - Main business revenue reached 2.595 billion yuan, with a year-on-year growth of 42.78% [1] Product Line Growth - The company's smart electric control products saw a sales increase of 58.43% year-on-year, becoming the main driver of overall growth [1] - Disc brakes and lightweight braking components experienced year-on-year growth of 36.14% and 23.45%, respectively [1] - The synergy among multiple product lines supported the rapid increase in overall revenue [1] New Energy Project Pipeline - As of Q1 2025, the company had a total of 498 projects under research, new production, and new designated projects, marking a year-on-year increase of 6.41%, 11.76%, and 13.21% respectively [1] - Among these, 393 projects are related to new energy vehicles, aligning with trends in electrification and intelligence, providing ample reserves for future project releases [1] Customer Structure and Market Expansion - The company has served a total of 50 automotive manufacturer clients and is actively optimizing its customer structure [2] - New clients added in 2024 include Ford North America and GAC Toyota [2] - The company’s overseas business is progressing steadily, with exports to the U.S. reaching 339 million yuan, primarily through bases in China and Mexico [2] - The establishment of a stable supply capability from the Mexico factory marks a significant step in the company's international strategy [2] Profit Forecast - The company is expected to achieve revenues of 12.7 billion yuan, 16.1 billion yuan, and 20.1 billion yuan in 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively [2] - The projected net profits attributable to shareholders for the same years are 1.56 billion yuan, 2.01 billion yuan, and 2.44 billion yuan [2] - The company is anticipated to experience rapid growth in revenue and net profit, particularly in the fields of online control chassis and robotics [2]