Core Viewpoint - The core viewpoint indicates that core goods inflation is a reflection of the transmission of tariffs [1] Group 1 - The Federal Reserve Governor, Christopher Waller, emphasizes the impact of tariffs on core goods inflation [1] - The discussion highlights the relationship between tariffs and inflationary pressures in the economy [1] - The analysis suggests that understanding this relationship is crucial for future monetary policy decisions [1]

Core Viewpoint - The Federal Reserve Governor, Christopher Waller, indicated that the Consumer Price Index (CPI) shows a widespread increase in core goods inflation [1] Group 1 - The core goods inflation is expanding across various sectors, suggesting persistent inflationary pressures in the economy [1] - The implications of rising core goods inflation may influence future monetary policy decisions by the Federal Reserve [1]

Core Insights - The Federal Reserve's Collins indicates that core goods inflation is showing signs of the impact of tariffs [1] Group 1 - Core goods inflation is being influenced by tariffs, suggesting a potential shift in pricing dynamics within the market [1]

Core Viewpoint - The potential increase in tariffs may complicate efforts to shield American consumers from rising costs, leading economists to predict that companies will implement more significant price hikes in the coming months [1] Group 1 - The accumulation of inventory prior to tariff increases may result in a delayed transmission of tariff effects [1] - The significant uncertainty surrounding U.S. trade policy could impact the speed at which companies adjust their prices [1] - There is a high likelihood of rising core goods inflation in the coming months [1]

Core Insights - The Federal Reserve Governor, Christopher Waller, indicates that a surge in imports expected in the coming months will reverse, signaling a potential for larger price increases [1] - Core services inflation remains above pre-pandemic levels, suggesting persistent inflationary pressures in this sector [1] - Improvement in core goods inflation has shown signs of reversal, indicating challenges in controlling inflation in this category [1]

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the ongoing trend of cooling inflation in the U.S., highlighting the April CPI data and its implications for future economic conditions and monetary policy [1][10]. Inflation Trends - April CPI year-on-year growth slightly decreased to 2.3%, the lowest since February 2021, while core CPI remained stable at 2.8% [1]. - Energy prices saw a year-on-year decline of 3.7%, influenced by global trade uncertainties and a high base from the previous year [3]. - Core services inflation decreased to 3.6%, with housing and transportation services continuing to show downward trends [5]. - Core goods inflation turned positive at 0.1%, primarily due to a lower base from the previous year, with some categories like furniture and appliances showing increases [6]. Energy Sector Insights - The year-on-year growth rate for energy in the CPI recorded a decline of 3.7%, with gasoline prices dropping by 11.8% [3]. - Brent crude oil prices fell to an average of $67.9 per barrel in April, further decreasing to $62.7 per barrel in May, indicating a potential for sustained low energy prices [3]. Service Sector Analysis - Core services inflation pressure is expected to continue easing, with stable housing inflation and a slight decrease in owner-equivalent rent growth to 4.3% [5]. - Transportation service prices also showed a year-on-year decline, contributing to the overall easing of service inflation [5]. Consumer Expectations - Consumer inflation expectations rose, with the one-year expectation increasing to 6.5%, the highest since November 2023, driven by concerns over tariff policies [8]. Monetary Policy Implications - Following the inflation data release, U.S. stock indices rose, and bond yields fell, suggesting market reactions to the inflation trends [10]. - The ongoing tariff policies and their delayed impact on inflation may lead to a postponement of interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve, despite the cooling inflation [10].

Core Insights - Fitch Ratings' Chief Economist Brian Coulton suggests that core inflation is currently in an optimal range but this status may not be sustainable [1] - Core commodity prices have not fully reflected the tariff impacts since February, while service inflation continues to show a moderate decline [1] - The annualized three-month growth rate of core inflation has dropped below 3% [1] - Service inflation remains stubborn, and automobile prices have started to rise again [1] - As inventories of imported goods, which were acquired before tariff increases, are gradually depleted, core commodity inflation is likely to rise in the coming months [1]