宏观经济点评 核心服务带动美国通胀超预期下行 ——美国 11 月 CPI 点评 | 何宁（分析师） | 潘纬桢（分析师） | | --- | --- | | hening@kysec.cn | panweizhen@kysec.cn | | 证书编号：S0790522110002 | 证书编号：S0790524040006 | 事件：美国公布 2025 年 11 月最新通胀数据。其中 CPI 同比上升 2.7%，核心 CPI 同比上升 2.6%，均不及市场预期。 通胀全面下行，核心服务通胀是重要驱动因素 1. 总体通胀与核心通胀均出现下行，但 10 月数据缺失。由于美国政府前期关 门，10 月 CPI 的大部分数据、11 月 CPI 数据中的环比项缺失。美国 11 月 CPI 同比上升 2.7%，较 9 月下降 0.3 个百分点；核心 CPI 同比上涨 2.6%，较 9 月下 降 0.4 个百分点，且两项数据均不及市场预期。总的看，美国通胀出现了较为 明显的下行，虽无法通过环比数据观察到具体的下行斜率，但通胀的风险或有 实质性的下降。往后看，由于 2024 年 12 月的基数相对较高，通胀水平或将继 续走低， ...

Group 1 - The report from the San Francisco Federal Reserve indicates a significant decline in net immigration to the U.S., dropping to approximately 515,000 this year, a nearly 70% decrease from 2 million in 2024 [1][3] - The decline in immigration is attributed to two main factors: a reduction in undocumented immigrants and a "slightly high" outflow rate of immigrants. The estimated number of deportations this year is around 285,000, exacerbating the shrinkage of the immigrant population [3][4] - The reduction in the labor force due to declining immigration could lead to a slowdown in labor force growth or even negative growth in the coming years, posing a significant risk to economic development [1][3] Group 2 - Labor shortages are expected to become more pronounced in low-skill and specific professional sectors, particularly in industries like agriculture, construction, and healthcare, which have long relied on immigrant labor [4] - The decrease in immigration may have a potential positive impact by helping to lower core service inflation, as a tight labor supply often drives up wage levels, which in turn affects service prices [4] - The current economic environment in the U.S. is at a critical juncture between balanced growth and inflation, making labor market stability essential. The findings of the report highlight the need for policymakers to find a balance between immigration policy adjustments and labor market demands to avoid long-term economic impacts [4]

Core Insights - The Federal Reserve Governor, Christopher Waller, indicates that a surge in imports expected in the coming months will reverse, signaling a potential for larger price increases [1] - Core services inflation remains above pre-pandemic levels, suggesting persistent inflationary pressures in this sector [1] - Improvement in core goods inflation has shown signs of reversal, indicating challenges in controlling inflation in this category [1]

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the ongoing trend of cooling inflation in the U.S., highlighting the April CPI data and its implications for future economic conditions and monetary policy [1][10]. Inflation Trends - April CPI year-on-year growth slightly decreased to 2.3%, the lowest since February 2021, while core CPI remained stable at 2.8% [1]. - Energy prices saw a year-on-year decline of 3.7%, influenced by global trade uncertainties and a high base from the previous year [3]. - Core services inflation decreased to 3.6%, with housing and transportation services continuing to show downward trends [5]. - Core goods inflation turned positive at 0.1%, primarily due to a lower base from the previous year, with some categories like furniture and appliances showing increases [6]. Energy Sector Insights - The year-on-year growth rate for energy in the CPI recorded a decline of 3.7%, with gasoline prices dropping by 11.8% [3]. - Brent crude oil prices fell to an average of $67.9 per barrel in April, further decreasing to $62.7 per barrel in May, indicating a potential for sustained low energy prices [3]. Service Sector Analysis - Core services inflation pressure is expected to continue easing, with stable housing inflation and a slight decrease in owner-equivalent rent growth to 4.3% [5]. - Transportation service prices also showed a year-on-year decline, contributing to the overall easing of service inflation [5]. Consumer Expectations - Consumer inflation expectations rose, with the one-year expectation increasing to 6.5%, the highest since November 2023, driven by concerns over tariff policies [8]. Monetary Policy Implications - Following the inflation data release, U.S. stock indices rose, and bond yields fell, suggesting market reactions to the inflation trends [10]. - The ongoing tariff policies and their delayed impact on inflation may lead to a postponement of interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve, despite the cooling inflation [10].