调研报告-棉花 [Table_Title] 产量预估持续提升， 产业偏空预期一致性较强 [Table_Rank] 走势评级： 报告日期： 棉花: 看跌 2025 年 9 月 29 日 [Table_Summary] ★调研目的： 疆棉采收期临近，为了深入了解新疆棉花产量、收购、消费、库存、 产业心态等，本人于 9 月 7 日-19 日参加了新疆棉花调研活动。 ★调研情况总结： ★行情展望： 四季度，新棉大量上市期，供应压力和市场情绪集中释放，盘面有 跌破 13000 的可能，低点或在 11 月份。待利空得到较大程度释放 后，下游备货增加将有助于盘面企稳。郑棉整体波动预估区间 12000-13000 元/吨，认为 13000 以下追空的风险收益比不好。长期 而言，四季度或是国内压力最大的时期，明年行情整体谨慎偏乐观。 （1）新棉增产的预期较强，产量预估提升。综合各方反馈和田间 考察，今年彊棉产量预计在 730-780 万吨，即 750 万吨上下，我们 认为实现 750 万吨的概率较大。新棉质量预计将同比提升。南北疆 开秤时间接近，预计 9 月底集中开秤。（2）轧花厂普遍心态谨慎， 尤其北疆失去了抢收的能力和冲动 ...

Core Viewpoint - The global cotton market is expected to experience a significant increase in production, with major producing regions such as China, Brazil, and Australia anticipating higher yields. However, the cotton price may face downward pressure as new crops are harvested in October [1][2]. Group 1: Cotton Supply and Demand Dynamics - Domestic cotton basis remains strong, reflecting structural supply-demand contradictions, particularly a shortage of high-grade cotton. The increase in domestic cotton usage is driven by tariff hikes that have forced some enterprises to switch to local cotton [3][4]. - The current cotton inventory is continuously depleting, leading to a marginal improvement in the cotton market fundamentals. However, the demand remains weak, particularly during the textile off-season from June to September, which could put pressure on the cotton basis [3][4]. Group 2: Industry Challenges and Profitability - The cotton textile industry is facing significant challenges, including persistently low average profit margins and insufficient effective demand. This has led to an accelerated industry reshuffle, with the scale of cotton textile revenue expected to shrink to below one trillion yuan, marking a significant decline from previous years [5][6]. - The profit margin for large-scale cotton textile enterprises has decreased from 3.09% in 2022 to 1.82% in the first four months of 2025, indicating a continuous downward trend and the highest loss ratio in the industry [6][7]. Group 3: Future Outlook and Development Initiatives - Despite the current challenges, the cotton textile industry has a solid foundation and potential for long-term growth. The industry is encouraged to optimize its structure, enhance technological innovation, and focus on green development to maintain confidence and improve its image [7]. - The industry is expected to further align with macro policies, develop new productive forces, and deepen industrial transformation to promote high-quality development while preventing unhealthy competition [7].

Core Viewpoint - The global cotton market is expected to experience a significant increase in production, with major producing regions such as China, Brazil, and Australia anticipating higher yields [1]. Domestic Market - Currently, the domestic cotton basis remains strong, with high-grade cotton in short supply. The increase in tariffs has forced some companies to switch to domestic cotton, leading to a continuous reduction in cotton inventory and a marginal improvement in the fundamentals. Experts believe that with the new crop coming in October, the cotton basis is likely to return, putting pressure on cotton prices [2][4]. - The cotton textile industry is facing severe challenges due to the dual pressures of raw material supply shocks and insufficient end demand. The first half of the year has seen significant pressure on the industry, leading to increased polarization among companies [3][8]. Global Cotton Production - The global cotton production is set to increase significantly, with new crop prices and basis expected to be lower than last year. The USDA balance sheet indicates a slight oversupply compared to demand, with external prices lower than U.S. planting costs but higher than Brazilian costs. Macro uncertainties such as tariffs and dollar credit will be major disruptive factors [6][8]. Industry Challenges - The cotton spinning industry is currently facing a prolonged low average profit margin, insufficient end demand, and complex international conditions, leading to an accelerated industry reshuffle. The revenue of large-scale cotton spinning enterprises is expected to shrink to below one trillion yuan, with their share of the textile industry dropping below 20%, a significant decline from the peak period in 2016 [8][9]. - The operating profit margin of large-scale cotton spinning enterprises has been continuously declining, with projections showing a drop from 3.09% in 2022 to 1.82% in early 2025, marking a new low [9][10]. - The loss ratio among large-scale cotton spinning enterprises has further expanded, reaching 28.1% in early 2025, up from 22.5% in 2024, indicating a record high for industry losses [10]. Future Outlook - Despite the various external risks and challenges, the cotton spinning industry still possesses a solid foundation, numerous advantages, and significant potential for growth. The long-term positive trend of the industry is expected to remain unchanged. The industry aims to leverage macro policies, develop new productive forces, deepen industrial transformation, and promote high-quality development while enhancing self-discipline to prevent vicious competition [10].