光期研究 见微知著 棉花策略月报 202 6 年 0 1 月 1 光大证券 2020 年 半 年 度 业 绩 E V E R B R I G H T S E C U R I T I E S 棉花：植棉面积调控预期较强，价格有支撑 近期新疆维吾尔自治区棉花协会发布题为《2026年新疆棉花种植面积将迎来结构性压缩》的文章。文中提到，为落实自治区党委、政府工作部署，切实将调减棉花种植 面积的各项措施落实到位，2025年12月23日，自治区棉花产业发展领导小组办公室召开调减新疆棉花种植面积专题会议。会上指出，调减棉花种植面积是适应市场需求 变化、优化区域农业资源配置、缓解水资源环境压力、保障重要农产品稳定安全供给的关键举措。2026年棉花种植面积调减已经确定，新年度棉花产量下降预期较强是 近期行情驱动的主要因素之一。 需求端：棉纺需求有韧性，但近期纺织企业开机负荷环比有小幅下降趋势。 1、截至12月26日当周，纱线综合负荷为50.1%，周环比下降0.5百分点；纯棉纱厂负荷为46.86%，周环比下降0.54个百分点。2、截至12月26日当周，短纤布综合负荷为 51.26%，周环比下降0.04个百分点；全棉坯布负荷为48 ...

作 者：杨江涛 执业证书编号：F03117249 交易咨询编号：Z0022644 联 系 方 式：0371-58620082 本周观点 | 品种 | 逻辑驱动 | 策略及风险提示 | | --- | --- | --- | | | 【供应】：新棉加工接近尾声，截止12月25日24时，累计公检量达560.89万吨， | | | | 但日均公检降至 5.5 万吨。商业库存回升，但上年度低库存+ 新年度低进口，整 | | | | 体供应增幅有限。 | | | | 【需求】：本周轧花厂加工利润1013~1078元/吨，纺纱厂即期利润-1351.5~-507 | | | | 元/吨。 | | | | 【库存】：库存位于往年同期偏高。 | | | | 【成本】：成本较高在14700~15000及以上，成本较低在14600以下，较高成本等 | | | | 待套保，较低成本顺价出货 | 震荡偏强。重点 | | 棉花 | 【基差】：基差略有走强，现货维稳。 | 关注政策和需求 | | | 【总结】：国际市场，周初因出口数据改善有限短暂回调，但随后在最新美棉签 | 端新市场信息。 | | | 约与装运数据明显好转，以及外围金融和 ...

2025 年 12 月 24 日 商 品 研 究 棉花：期价震荡偏强，注意整体市场情绪 20251224 傅博 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0016727 fubo2@gtht.com 【基本面跟踪】 棉花基本面数据 | | 名 称 | 单 位 | 昨日收盘价 | 日涨幅 | 昨日夜盘收盘价 | 夜盘涨幅 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | CF2605 | 元/吨 | 14,140 | 0.50% | 14135 | -0.04% | | | CY2603 | 元/吨 | 20,185 | 0.37% | 20210 | 0.12% | | | ICE美棉3 | 美分/磅 | 64.02 | 0.64% | | - | | | | | 昨日成交 | 较前日变动 | 昨日持仓 | 较前日变动 | | 期 货 | CF2605 | 手 | 308,398 | -144,220 | 1,123,245 | 7,199 | | | CY2603 | 手 | 8,895 | -1,999 | 23,262 | 1,045 | | | | | 昨日仓单量 | 较 ...

长江期货棉纺产业周报 2025-12-19 长江期货股份有限公司交易咨询业务资格：鄂证监期货字{2014}1号 震荡偏强 【长期研究|棉纺团队】 研究员：黄尚海 执业编号:F0270997 投资咨询编号:Z0002826 01 周度总结 Ø 棉花：近期棉花期货现货价格均出现震荡上行走势。一方面基本面供需格局供需双增，矛盾不突出；一方面预期新年 度新疆种植政策会出现较大变化，缩减新疆棉产量。目前新疆棉现货市场比较强势，一口价销售较好，基差坚挺。纱 线端采购按部就班。预期近期棉花价格未知震荡偏强。 Ø 棉纱：目前内地不少纺织企业已面临现金流亏损的压力。尽管新疆地区的纺织企业凭借靠近原料产地、享有一定政策 支持等成本优势，目前仍能保持较高的开工负荷，但行业的整体压力已然不容小觑。后续需继续关注郑棉走势和下游 补库情况，近期部分纺企反馈有织厂开始补库，若能形成行情，有望提振市场信心，。 Ø 风险提示：商品市场共振、下游需求萎靡、天气因素影响； 02 行情回顾 | | 本間 | 周围张跌 | 周唐张跌幅 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 棍花期后看到 | 14,015.00 | [180.0 ...

（来源：锦桥纺织网） 来源：锦桥纺织网 项目承担：北京棉花展望信息咨询有限责任公司 监测对象：18个主要棉花生产、消费省的100家棉纺织厂 11月国内外棉市在供需变化、宏观政策等多重因素影响下，价格延续10月以来震荡走势，整体呈先跌后涨、内强外弱的特点。新棉集中上市供应增加、纺织 市场进入淡季后需求转弱，给棉价带来一定压力，而促消费政策出台、美联储降息预期回升等宏观因素又推动市场情绪回暖，棉价受到支撑，国内期现货价 格均以当月最高点报收，国际棉价则弱于国内，内外棉价差有所扩大。 一、宏观环境向好推动国内棉价上涨 11月上中旬国内新棉加工进入高峰期，上市资源持续增加，市场供应总体宽松，而纺织厂季节性需求下降，国内现货价格震荡走弱，中国棉花价格指数由月 初的14859元/吨下跌至最低14779元/吨。月下旬，相关部门联合印发《关于增强消费品供需适配性进一步促进消费的实施方案》，加上中美元首通话显示两 国关系总体稳定向好，带动市场信心回升，国内棉价持续反弹，中国棉花价格指数月底收于最高点14896元/吨，月均价14831元/吨，环比上涨67元，同比下 跌497元。 三、长绒棉需求稳定 价格保持平稳 11月下游高支纱 ...

2025 年 12 月 10 日 棉花：震荡偏强 关注下游需求 20251210 傅博 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0016727 fubo2@gtht.com 【基本面跟踪】 棉花基本面数据 | | 名 称 | 单 位 | 昨日收盘价 | 日涨幅 | 昨日夜盘收盘价 | 夜盘涨幅 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | CF2601 | 元/吨 | 13,740 | -0.07% | 13750 | 0.07% | | | CY2603 | 元/吨 | 19,945 | -0.18% | 19960 | 0.08% | | | ICE美棉3 | 美分/磅 | 63.87 | 0.20% | | - | | | | | 昨日成交 | 较前日变动 | 昨日持仓 | 较前日变动 | | 期 货 | CF2601 | 手 | 303,883 | -1,706 | 1,050,394 | 6,283 | | | CY2603 | 手 | 7,169 | -1,999 | 17,370 | 1,045 | | | | | 昨日仓单量 | 较前日变动 | 有效预报 | ...

商 品 研 究 2025 年 12 月 03 日 资料来源：同花顺 iFinD，国泰君安期货研究 【宏观及行业新闻】 国内棉花现货概况：根据 TTEB 信息显示，棉花现货交投依旧淡，有部分套保成交。现货主流基差变 化不大，部分高基差货源略有下调，一口价报价稳中略有上涨。2025/26 北疆机采 4129/29B 杂 3.5 内主 流销售基差多在 CF01+900 及以上，31 级同品质同报价本周有所增加，不含淡点污，疆内自提；2025/26 南北疆机采 3129/29-30B 杂 3 内较多报价基差在 CF01+1400-1600，内地自提。 国内棉纺织企业概况：根据 TTEB 信息显示，纯棉纱价格局部上调 100-200，实际成交暂时未有明显 跟进。为缓解利润压力，部分大型纺企上调纱价。品类方面，近期用于高端面料的高支、精梳纱订单相对 稳定，其他品类交投偏淡。 美棉概况：昨日 ICE 棉花期货小幅波动，受降息预期影响整体金融市场风险偏好较好，逢低买盘继续 支撑 ICE 棉花。 【趋势强度】 棉花：供需双强 傅博 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0016727 fubo2@gtht.com 【基本面跟踪】 棉花基本面数 ...

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Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core View of the Report - The cotton is likely to continue its oscillatory trend in the short term. The core logics are that the current Sino-US trade relations have eased, presenting a positive macro environment; there is a strong expectation of a bountiful cotton supply this year, and the subsequent hedging pressure will be significant as the cost gradually stabilizes; the downstream market shows a lukewarm performance, with enterprises' finished product inventories in a healthy state and a rigid demand for cotton [3]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Market Dynamics - On the 20th local time, the US Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) released an employment report. The US added 119,000 non-farm jobs in September, significantly higher than the market expectation of 50,000. The unemployment rate rose from 4.3% in August to 4.4%, the highest since October 2021. The non-farm employment data shows that the possibility of the Fed cutting interest rates in December is low, but currently, most Fed officials support a December rate cut. According to the CME "FedWatch" tool, the probability of a "25-basis-point rate cut" in December has risen to over 70% [2]. 2. Fundamental Analysis Commercial Inventory - As of November 15, the total national commercial cotton inventory was 3.6397 million tons, an increase of 709,100 tons from half a month ago. The total inventory in Xinjiang was 2.9346 million tons, an increase of 593,800 tons; the total inventory in the inland was 377,100 tons, an increase of 278,800 tons; the bonded warehouse cotton inventory was 328,000 tons, an increase of 17,000 tons. The current commercial cotton inventory is at the highest level in the same period in history, and it is expected to remain at this high level in the next few months [2]. Industrial Inventory - As of November 15, the in - stock industrial cotton inventory of textile enterprises was 931,400 tons, an increase of 59,400 tons, and an increase of 43,200 tons from the end of last month. The disposable cotton inventory of textile enterprises was 1.0875 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 99,840 tons, and an increase of 20,800 tons from the end of last month. The yarn inventory of textile enterprises was 26.35 days, a year - on - year increase of 1.7 days and an increase of 0.23 days from the end of last month. The grey cloth inventory was 31.12 days, a year - on - year increase of 1.71 days and a decrease of 0.85 days from the end of last month. Currently, the finished product inventory of textile enterprises is in a healthy state, and the stable operating rate creates a rigid demand for cotton consumption [2]. 3. One - Week Data Overview - As of November 21, the main contract of Zhengzhou cotton closed at 13,460 yuan/ton, up 10 yuan/ton from last week, with a gain of 0.07%. The cotton spot price index was 14,796 yuan/ton, down 10 yuan/ton from last week, with a decline of 0.07%. The main contract price of ICE cotton futures was 61.85 cents/pound, down 0.65 cents/pound from last week, with a decline of 1.04%. The NYMEX crude oil price was 57.98 dollars/barrel, down 1.97 dollars/barrel from last week, with a decline of 3.29%. The Shanghai gold main contract was 926.94 yuan/gram, down 26.26 yuan/gram from last week, with a decline of 2.75% [4][6]. 4. Domestic Market Basic Situation Raw Material Price Index - On November 21, the price center of raw materials showed mixed trends compared with last week. The short - fiber main contract closed at 6,162 yuan/ton, down 76 yuan/ton from last week, with a decline of 1.22%. The cotton main contract closed at 13,460 yuan/ton, up 10 yuan/ton from last week, with a gain of 0.07%. The cotton spot 3128B market price was 14,796 yuan/ton, down 10 yuan/ton from last week, with a decline of 0.07% [10]. Domestic Cotton Yarn Price - On November 21, the price center of domestic yarns moved slightly higher compared with last week. The price of OEC10S airflow - spun yarn remained unchanged at 14,670 yuan/ton. The price of C32S carded yarn was 20,440 yuan/ton, up 120 yuan/ton from last week, with a gain of 0.59% [12]. Imported Yarn Price - On November 21, the price center of foreign yarns denominated in US dollars moved slightly lower compared with last week, and the price center of foreign yarns denominated in RMB declined. For example, the FCYIndexJC32S arrival price in US dollars was 2.64 dollars/kg, down 0.01 dollars/kg from last week, with a decline of 0.38%. The FCYIndexJC32S port pick - up price in RMB was 22,840 yuan/ton, down 60 yuan/ton from last week, with a decline of 0.26% [15][19]. Cotton Price Spread - On November 21, the spread between domestic cotton spot price index CCI3128B and FCindex sliding - duty port pick - up price was 953 yuan/ton, up 67 yuan/ton from last week, and the spread widened. The spread between Zhengzhou cotton main contract and FCindex sliding - duty port pick - up price was - 383 yuan/ton, up 87 yuan/ton from last week, and the spread narrowed. The spread between Zhengzhou cotton main contract and ICE main contract under tariff was 514 yuan/ton, up 111 yuan/ton from last week, and the spread widened. The spread between Zhengzhou cotton main contract and ICE main contract's converted disk price was 3,451 yuan/ton, up 106 yuan/ton from last week, and the spread widened [23][25]. Warehouse Receipts and Effective Forecasts - As of November 21, the total number of Zhengzhou cotton warehouse receipts and effective forecasts was 3,456, a decrease of 1,579 from last week. Among them, the total number of warehouse receipts was 2,244, a decrease of 2,157 from last week, and the total number of effective forecasts was 1,221, an increase of 578 from last week [28]. Zhengzhou Cotton Futures - Spot Price Spread - As of November 21, the spread between Zhengzhou cotton main contract and CCI3128B spot price index was - 1,336 yuan/ton, up 20 yuan/ton from last week, and the spread narrowed [30]. Cotton Inventory - As of November 15, the total national commercial cotton inventory was 3.6397 million tons, an increase of 709,100 tons from half a month ago. As of October 31, the monthly cotton import volume was 90,000 tons, a decrease of 10,000 tons from last month, with a decline of 10%, and a year - on - year decrease of 20,000 tons, with a decline of 18.18% [33][35]. Cotton Inspection Volume - As of November 20, the Xinjiang cotton inspection volume was 3.3915 million tons, the inland cotton inspection volume was 14,900 tons, and the national cotton inspection volume was 3.4064 million tons [38]. Cotton Textile Industry PMI - As of the end of October, the Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) of China's cotton textile industry was 52.66%, up 8.37 percentage points from last month, and it returned above the boom - bust line for the first time in seven months since March this year [40]. 5. Zhengzhou Cotton Market Analysis Macroeconomic Situation - The US federal government shutdown ended, which is expected to have a negative impact on the US economy in the fourth quarter. The market is currently focused on the Fed's possible interest rate cut in December, and the decision will depend on factors such as inflation and the employment market [41]. Cotton Inventory - As of the end of October 2025, the national commercial cotton inventory was 2.9306 million tons, an increase of 1.9089 million tons from last month, with an increase rate of 186.84%, higher than the same period last year. The cotton industrial inventory of textile enterprises showed a stable - to - increasing trend [41]. Market Price and Supply - Demand - As of November 14, the CRB commodity price index declined slightly, and the ICE cotton futures main contract price fell. The latest global cotton supply - demand report was bearish. In the short term, cotton prices may be under pressure and show a weak trend [41].

Report Summary 1. Investment Rating No investment rating for the industry is provided in the report. 2. Core View The pressure of new cotton listings still suppresses cotton futures prices. The overall market shows a weak trend, with cotton spot trading being light, and the cotton textile industry in a traditional off - season with cautious market sentiment [1]. 3. Summary by Related Content 3.1 Cotton Futures Data - **Prices and Changes**: The closing price of CF2601 was 13,450 yuan/ton, down 0.30%, and the night - session closing price was 13,445 yuan/ton, down 0.04%. The closing price of CY2601 was 19,695 yuan/ton, down 0.48%, and the night - session closing price was 19,710 yuan/ton, up 0.08%. The price of ICE US cotton 3 was 64.14 cents/pound, down 0.68% [1]. - **Trading Volume and Open Interest**: The trading volume of CF2601 was 210,406 lots, an increase of 6,629 lots compared to the previous day, and the open interest was 918,018 lots, a decrease of 24,420 lots. The trading volume of CY2601 was 13,433 lots, a decrease of 1,999 lots, and the open interest was 23,504 lots, an increase of 1,045 lots [1]. - **Warehouse Receipts**: The number of Zhengzhou cotton warehouse receipts was 4,401, an increase of 221, and the effective forecast was 643, a decrease of 235. The number of cotton yarn warehouse receipts was 28, a decrease of 2, and the effective forecast was 0, an increase of 30 [1]. 3.2 Spot Market Data - **Cotton Spot Prices**: The price of northern Xinjiang 3128 machine - picked cotton was 14,454 yuan/ton, down 40 yuan or - 0.28% compared to the previous day; the price of southern Xinjiang 3128 machine - picked cotton was 14,393 yuan/ton, down 40 yuan or - 0.28%. The prices in Shandong and Hebei also showed slight declines [1]. - **Yarn Spot Prices**: The price of pure cotton combed yarn 32 - count was 20,490 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous day, and the arrival price was 21,100 yuan/ton, down 37 yuan or - 0.18% [1]. 3.3 Macro and Industry News - **Domestic Cotton Spot Situation**: Cotton spot trading was light, and sales basis was mostly stable, with a decrease in low - basis goods. The one - price quotes for northern Xinjiang machine - picked cotton (2025/26, 3129/29B, impurity within 3.5) were above 14,550 yuan/ton, and the point - price basis was mostly above CF01 + 1050. The mainstream lower sales basis for southern Xinjiang machine - picked cotton (2025/26, 3129/29 - 30B, impurity within 3) was between CF01 + 900 and 1050 [1][2]. - **Domestic Cotton Textile Enterprises Situation**: Pure cotton yarn trading was light, with strong market wait - and - see sentiment. Downstream markets focused on shipments, and spinning mills' sales slowed down, with inventory slightly increasing. The all - cotton grey fabric market had a differentiated trading situation, with clothing grey fabric sales being flat and home textile grey fabric sales continuing. Orders were mainly inquiries for export orders, and the increase in domestic spring - summer orders was limited [1][2]. - **US Cotton Situation**: Last Friday, ICE cotton futures fell below the October low because the US Department of Agriculture raised the production and ending inventory estimates of US cotton for the 2025/26 season [1][2]. 3.4 Trend Intensity The trend intensity of cotton is 0, indicating a neutral trend. The range of trend intensity is an integer within the [- 2, 2] interval, where - 2 means the most bearish and 2 means the most bullish [4].