交易咨询业务资格：证监许可〔2011〕1458号 期货研究报告 棉花周报 | 2025- 增产预期叠加下游转淡，郑棉主力承压显著 【市场动态】 宏观方面，当地时间20日，美国劳工统计局（BLS）发布就业报告。美国9月非农就 业意外大增11.9万人，显著高于市场预期的5万人。失业率则从8月的4.3%升至 4.4%，为2021年10月以来的最高水平。此外，7月份非农新增就业人数从7.9万人下 修7000人至7.2万人；8月份非农新增就业人数从2.2万人下修2.6万人至-0.4万人。非 农就业数据发布后，利率互换市场继续显示，美联储12月降息的可能性不大。但目 前美联储主要官员对12月降息持支持态度。纽约联储主席威廉姆斯周五表示：经济 增长已放缓，通胀进展已停滞，但应有望在2027年达到2%的目标；关税使通胀率上 升了半个百分点到四分之三个百分点；关税推高了物价，但预计不会导致持续通 胀。根据CME"美联储观察"工具的数据，联邦基金利率期货目前隐含的12月"降 息25个基点"概率已升至70%以上，此前该数据为39.1%。（数据来源：Wind） 【基本面分析】 1.据棉花信息网统计的商业库存数据来看，截至11月15日 ...

商 品 研 究 棉花基本面数据 | 名 称 | | 单 位 | 昨日收盘价 | 日涨幅 | 昨日夜盘收盘价 | 夜盘涨幅 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 元/吨 | CF2601 CY2601 | 元/吨 | 13,450 | -0.30% -0.48% | 13445 19710 | -0.04% | | 19,695 | | | | | | 0.08% | | ICE美棉3 | | 美分/磅 | 64.14 | -0.68% | | - | | 较前日变动 | | | 昨日成交 | | 昨日持仓 | 较前日变动 | | 期 货 | CF2601 | 手 | 210,406 | 6,629 | 918,018 | -24,420 | | 手 | CY2601 | | 13,433 | -1,999 | 23,504 | 1,045 | | 昨日仓单量 | | | | 较前日变动 | 有效预报 | 较前日变动 | | 郑棉 | | 张 | 4,401 | 221 | 643 | -235 | | 棉纱 | | 张 | 28 | -2 | 0 | ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core View of the Report - The industry drivers are unclear, and cotton futures prices are expected to have limited upward space and fluctuate narrowly in the short term [3]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market Review - US cotton prices declined continuously last week, with a closing price of 63.62 cents per pound on Friday, a drop of 2.93%. As of September 26, non - commercial long positions decreased by 751, non - commercial short net positions increased by 2020, and non - commercial net positions decreased by 2771 [9]. - Zhengzhou cotton futures fluctuated narrowly, ranging from 13,455 to 13,640 yuan per ton, with a closing price of 13,580 yuan per ton on Friday, a weekly decline of 15 yuan or 0.11%. As of November 7, the registered and forecasted warehouse receipts of No. 1 cotton totaled 3,858 lots, equivalent to 192,000 tons [10]. - Spot cotton prices were basically stable, but trading was sluggish. The purchase price of seed cotton showed a trend of first falling and then rising, ranging from 6.4 to 6.6 yuan per kilogram, and the new cotton cost provided some support for cotton prices [12]. 3.2 Domestic Cotton Market 3.2.1 Supply - The China Cotton Association predicts that the total cotton output in the 2025/26 season will reach 7.216 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 8.3%. Xinjiang's output is expected to be about 6.911 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 9.2%, accounting for 95.8% of the national total [17]. - In September 2025, China imported 95,000 tons of cotton. Australia and Brazil were the main sources, with Australia supplying 69,900 tons and Brazil 12,300 tons [24]. 3.2.2 Demand - Demand was lower than the same period last year. Domestic demand had no obvious positive factors, while exports improved slightly. Weaving mills' raw material procurement was mainly on a wait - and - see basis [26][32]. 3.2.3 Profit - The processing profit of ginning mills this week was 517 - 613 yuan per ton, and the immediate profit of spinning mills was - 989.1 to - 819.7 yuan per ton, showing an improvement compared to last week [35]. 3.2.4 Inventory - As of the week of November 7, the national commercial cotton inventory was 2.3261 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 521,700 tons and 278,800 tons higher than the same period last year. At the end of September, the industrial inventory of cotton textile enterprises was 845,500 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 46,800 tons [41]. 3.3 International Market - According to the latest USDA global cotton production and sales forecast in September, the global cotton output in September was 25.62 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 230,000 tons; total consumption increased by 184,000 tons to 25.68 million tons; and the ending inventory decreased by 168,000 tons to 15.92 million tons [43]. - The US government shutdown led to the suspension of most USDA reports [46].

Policy Dynamics - The "14th Five-Year Plan" elevates green development to a strategic height, aiming for a comprehensive green transformation through industrial structure adjustment and energy system reconstruction, with a focus on carbon peak and neutrality goals[7] - The Ministry of Ecology and Environment indicates that the national voluntary greenhouse gas emission reduction trading market is rapidly developing, aiming to enhance international influence through expanded methodologies and data regulation[8] - The Ministry of Commerce is assisting SMEs in green transformation by optimizing services and establishing platforms, with an intention to enhance their green competitiveness[9] Industry Highlights - Major food delivery platforms in China have eliminated penalties for late deliveries, shifting to positive incentives, marking a significant change towards sustainable development[11] - The first carbon-neutral smart spinning factory in Jiangsu has been launched, achieving over 30% improvement in production efficiency and over 20% reduction in energy consumption, with near-zero carbon emissions[14] Capital Market Dynamics - As of October 31, 2025, the ESG index performance was mostly below the market average, with the ChiNext ESG index down by 5.1% and the Wind All A Sustainable ESG index down by 1.5%[25] - There are approximately 62 pure ESG public funds with a total net asset of 24.1 billion RMB, and no new funds were launched in October 2025[26] - The total number of ESG bonds in China is 3,668, with a total balance of 55,952 billion RMB, including 20,852 billion RMB in local government bonds[30] Risk Factors - Rapid policy changes and uncertainties, slower-than-expected policy implementation, backlash against ESG initiatives, and high costs of green technologies pose significant risks[37]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core View of the Report - In the short term, the upside potential of cotton prices is limited, and they are expected to fluctuate within a narrow range. Domestic cotton prices continued a slight rebound supported by rising acquisition costs and positive expectations from Sino - US negotiations, but the rebound momentum slowed as positive factors were digested. ICE cotton futures prices rebounded due to Fed rate - cut expectations and Sino - US negotiation prospects, despite the lack of significant improvement in the industrial fundamentals [3]. 3. Summary by Directory 01 Market Review - **US Cotton Weekly Review**: US cotton rebounded due to Fed rate - cut expectations and Sino - US negotiation prospects. As of September 26, non - commercial long positions were 69,367 contracts, a decrease of 751 from the previous week; non - commercial short net positions were 114,787 contracts, an increase of 2,020; non - commercial net positions were - 45,420 contracts, a decrease of 2,771 [9]. - **Zhengzhou Cotton**: Zhengzhou cotton fluctuated narrowly, ranging from 13,520 to 13,675 yuan/ton, with a Friday closing price of 13,595 yuan/ton, a week - on - week increase of 55 yuan or 0.41%. As of October 31, the registered and forecasted cotton warrants totaled 3,858 contracts, equivalent to 162,000 tons [10]. - **Cotton Textile Spot Weekly Data**: Spot prices were basically stable, but trading was sluggish. The seed cotton acquisition price showed a trend of first falling and then rising, with the price in the current week at 6.4 - 6.5 yuan/kg, supporting cotton prices. The overall spot basis narrowed, and many cotton merchants lowered their spot sales basis [12][14]. 02 Domestic Cotton Market - **Supply**: The China Cotton Association predicts that the 2025/26 cotton output will reach 7.216 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 8.3%, with Xinjiang's output expected to be about 6.911 million tons, a 9.2% increase and accounting for 95.8% of the national total. New cotton listing is slower than in previous years. In September 2025, China imported 95,000 tons of cotton, with Australia and Brazil being the main sources [17][25]. - **Demand**: Demand is weaker than in previous years, with no obvious domestic demand improvement and a slight improvement in exports. Weaving mills' raw material procurement is mainly on a wait - and - see basis, with orders - based purchasing [27][33]. - **Profit**: This week, the processing profit of ginning mills was 396 - 445 yuan/ton, and the immediate profit of spinning mills was - 1,022.1 to - 945.3 yuan/ton, a decline from the previous week [36]. - **Inventory**: As of the week of October 31, the national commercial cotton inventory was 2.3261 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 484,500 tons and 77,200 tons higher than the same period last year. At the end of September, the industrial inventory of cotton textile enterprises was 845,500 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 46,800 tons [42]. 03 International Market - **Global Cotton Supply and Demand**: According to the latest USDA September forecast, the global cotton output in September was 25.62 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 230,000 tons; total consumption increased by 184,000 tons to 25.68 million tons; and the ending inventory decreased by 168,000 tons to 15.92 million tons [44]. - **US Cotton Export**: Due to the US government shutdown, most USDA reports have suspended disclosure [47]. - **US Cotton Growth**: No specific content provided.

商 品 研 究 2025 年 11 月 05 日 棉花：受商品市场整体走势偏弱影响 傅博 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0016727 fubo2@gtht.com 【基本面跟踪】 棉花基本面数据 | | 名 称 | 单 位 | 昨日收盘价 | 日涨幅 | 昨日夜盘收盘价 | 夜盘涨幅 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | CF2601 | 元/吨 | 13,535 | -0.48% | 13480 | -0.41% | | | CY2601 | 元/吨 | 19,795 | -0.63% | 19735 | -0.30% | | | ICE美棉12 | 美分/磅 | 65.15 | -0.82% | | - | | | | | 昨日成交 | 较前日变动 | 昨日持仓 | 较前日变动 | | 期 货 | CF2601 | 手 | 248,393 | -5,243 | 919,628 | -3,375 | | | CY2601 | 手 | 10,543 | -1,999 | 24,848 | 1,045 | | | | | 昨日仓单量 | 较前日变动 | 有 ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - The impact of seed cotton prices on cotton futures has weakened [1]. - The cotton spot trading is sluggish, with relatively smooth transactions at local low - price levels. The acquisition of cotton by ginning factories is gradually approaching the end. The cotton yarn market is generally trading moderately, with a decrease in low - price resources and a differentiated market structure [2]. - The ICE cotton futures rose slightly last Friday, supported by the optimistic expectation of improved international trade situation, and the market will closely monitor the actual export of U.S. cotton [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Fundamental Tracking - **Futures Data**: - CF2601 closed at 13,595 yuan/ton yesterday with a daily decline of 0.04%, and 13,555 yuan/ton in the night session with a decline of 0.29%. The trading volume was 241,222 lots, a decrease of 61,272 lots from the previous day, and the open interest was 918,452 lots, an increase of 619 lots [1]. - CY2601 closed at 19,875 yuan/ton yesterday with a daily decline of 0.10%, and 19,810 yuan/ton in the night session with a decline of 0.33%. The trading volume was 13,442 lots, a decrease of 1,999 lots from the previous day, and the open interest was 23,426 lots, an increase of 1,045 lots [1]. - ICE U.S. cotton 12 closed at 65.56 cents/pound yesterday with a daily increase of 0.72% [1]. - **Warehouse Receipt Data**: - The number of Zhengzhou cotton warehouse receipts was 2,414, a decrease of 20 from the previous day, and the effective forecast was 1,444, an increase of 216 [1]. - The number of cotton yarn warehouse receipts was 4, unchanged from the previous day, and the effective forecast was 14, a decrease of 10 [1]. - **Spot Price Data**: - The price of Beijiang 3128 machine - picked cotton was 14,719 yuan/ton, a decrease of 30 yuan or 0.20% from the previous day. The price of Nanjiang 3128 machine - picked cotton was 14,585 yuan/ton, a decrease of 30 yuan or 0.21% from the previous day [1]. - The price in Shandong was 14,896 yuan/ton, an increase of 12 yuan or 0.08% from the previous day. The price in Hebei was 14,910 yuan/ton, an increase of 17 yuan or 0.11% from the previous day [1]. - The 3128B index was 14,860 yuan/ton, an increase of 17 yuan or 0.11% from the previous day. The international cotton index M was 74.16 cents/pound, a decrease of 1 cent or 1.28% from the previous day [1]. - The price of pure - cotton carded yarn 32 - count was 20,520 yuan/ton, an increase of 45 yuan or 0.22% from the previous day. The arrival price of pure - cotton carded yarn 32 - count was 21,180 yuan/ton, an increase of 23 yuan or 0.11% from the previous day [1]. - **Spread Data**: - The CF1 - 5 spread was - 10 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous day. The spread between Beijiang 3128 machine - picked cotton and CF601 was 1,120 yuan/ton, a decrease of 30 yuan from the previous day [1]. 3.2 Macro and Industry News - **Domestic Cotton Spot**: According to TTEB information, the cotton spot trading is sluggish, with relatively smooth transactions at local low - price levels. The acquisition of cotton by ginning factories is gradually approaching the end. The sales basis of 2025/26 Beijiang machine - picked cotton 4129/29B with impurity within 3.5 is mostly above CF01 + 900, and a small amount is below 900, excluding light - stained cotton, for self - pick - up in Xinjiang. The sales basis of 2025/26 Nanjiang machine - picked cotton 3129/29 - 30B with impurity within 3.5 is mostly between CF01 + 1000 - 1100, excluding light - stained cotton. The price of the same - quality 2024/25 Nanjiang old cotton is around CF01 + 900, for self - pick - up in Xinjiang [2]. - **Domestic Cotton Textile Enterprises**: According to TTEB information, the overall trading in the pure - cotton yarn market is average, with a decrease in low - price resources. A few spinning enterprises intend to raise prices. To avoid inventory backlog, some spinning enterprises in the inland only produce according to orders. Recently, the structure of the cotton yarn market is relatively differentiated: the trading of pure - cotton compact - spun 40 - count yarn is fair; some spinning enterprises have good export orders to Pakistan; some traders report that the vehicle resources in the transportation link out of Xinjiang are currently in short supply [2]. - **U.S. Cotton**: Last Friday, ICE cotton futures rose slightly, continuing to be supported by the optimistic expectation of improved international trade situation, and the market will closely monitor the actual export of U.S. cotton [2]. 3.3 Trend Intensity - The trend intensity of cotton is 0, indicating a neutral trend. The trend intensity ranges from - 2 (most bearish) to 2 (most bullish) [4].

Report Investment Rating - No investment rating information is provided in the report. Core View - In the short term, the upward space for cotton prices is limited, and they will fluctuate within a narrow range. New cotton harvest is at its peak, increasing hedging pressure. The textile industry's peak season is lackluster, with limited downstream demand orders. Domestic commercial inventories are at a historical low, cushioning price drops. Although costs have recovered, textile enterprises are still generally operating at a loss. The basis has slightly declined, and spot prices are firm. The rising seed cotton purchase price, increased processing costs, and adjusted production expectations support cotton prices, but the weak recovery of downstream demand restricts price increases [3]. Section Summaries 01 Market Review - **US Cotton Weekly Review**: US cotton fluctuated weakly, trading around 65 cents/pound. As of September 26, non - commercial long positions decreased by 751 to 69,367 contracts, non - commercial short net positions increased by 2,020 to 114,787 contracts, and non - commercial net positions decreased by 2,771 to - 45,420 contracts [9]. - **Zhengzhou Cotton Weekly Review**: Zhengzhou cotton rose under pressure, trading at 13,350 - 13,610 yuan/ton, with a Friday closing price of 13,540 yuan/ton, a weekly increase of 205 yuan or 1.54%. As of October 24, the registered and forecasted cotton warehouse receipts totaled 3,188 contracts, equivalent to 133,896 tons [10]. - **Cotton Textile Spot Weekly Data**: Spot prices were generally stable, but trading was light. The seed cotton purchase price has been rising since the start of the season, and the current price is 6.3 - 6.5 yuan/kg, providing some support for cotton prices. The overall spot basis has narrowed, and many cotton merchants have lowered their spot sales basis [12][14]. 02 Domestic Cotton Market - **Supply**: The China Cotton Association predicts that the 2025/26 cotton production will reach 721.6 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 8.3%. Xinjiang's output is expected to be 6.911 billion tons, a 9.2% increase, accounting for 95.8% of the national total. New cotton listing is slower than in previous years. In September 2025, China imported 95,000 tons of cotton, with Australia and Brazil being the main sources [17][25]. - **Demand**: Demand is weaker than in previous years. Domestic demand has no obvious positive factors, while exports have slightly improved. Weaving mills'开机率 has declined after the holiday, and they are purchasing raw materials on a wait - and - see basis [27][33]. - **Profit**: This week, the processing profit of ginning mills was 409 - 519 yuan/ton, and the immediate profit of spinning mills was - 950.8 - - 835.3 yuan/ton, showing a decline compared to last week [36]. - **Inventory**: As of the week of October 24, the national commercial cotton inventory was 1.4334 million tons, a weekly increase of 278,000 tons but 202,800 tons lower than last year. At the end of September, the industrial inventory of cotton textile enterprises was 845,500 tons, a decrease of 46,800 tons from the previous month [42]. 03 International Market - **Global Cotton Supply and Demand**: According to the USDA's September forecast, global cotton production in September was 25.62 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 230,000 tons. China's production increased by 218,000 tons to 7.076 million tons. Total consumption increased by 184,000 tons to 25.68 million tons, and the ending inventory decreased by 168,000 tons to 15.92 million tons [44]. - **US Cotton Export**: Due to the US government shutdown, most USDA reports have stopped being released [47]. - **US Cotton Growth Status**: The report does not provide detailed information on US cotton growth status.

Core Insights - A significant 86.4% of surveyed cotton textile enterprises have encountered issues with high-viscosity cotton, leading to an average cost loss of 11.2%, which poses a risk of profit loss given that industry profits are generally below 5% [1][2] - High-viscosity cotton, caused by sugar on the fiber surface, accumulates during production, potentially clogging equipment and disrupting operations, thereby increasing costs and operational pressure for companies [1] - The lack of standardized testing for cotton viscosity in the market results in a "blind box" scenario, where companies cannot identify high-viscosity cotton, leading to unaccounted losses [1] Industry Response - Over 80% of cotton textile enterprises strongly support the implementation of viscosity testing in cotton inspection, which would help reduce transaction costs and provide risk control during production [2] - In response to these challenges, the State Administration for Market Regulation has initiated a project to incorporate rapid viscosity grading tests into official inspections by the end of 2024, aiming to fill the domestic gap in this area [2] - The China Fiber Quality Monitoring Center is leading this initiative, collaborating with industry associations and educational institutions to develop rapid viscosity grading testing technology, enhancing the competitiveness of the cotton textile industry [2]

Core Insights - The article highlights the transformation of the Aksu region in Xinjiang, China, showcasing the development of modern agricultural practices and industries that enhance local economic growth and improve the livelihoods of residents [1] Group 1: Agricultural Development - Aksu, known as "White Water City," has seen the establishment of key agricultural enterprises like the Ailinu'er Agricultural Technology Development Co., which has evolved from a century-old water mill into a national key leading enterprise in agricultural industrialization [2] - The company employs advanced low-temperature, low-pressure, and low-speed processing techniques in its flour production, with high levels of automation in the production process [2] - The introduction of value-added products such as freeze-dried powder and raw pulp from specialty crops has contributed to higher profitability [2] Group 2: Cotton Industry - In Aksu County, modern cotton harvesting machines can efficiently harvest 200 acres of cotton fields daily with just one driver and one worker [6] - The Aksu Lihua Textile Co. has implemented a digitalized production line, enhancing the efficiency of traditional cotton processing through automation and requiring higher skill levels from workers [7] - The company is training employees to use a mobile app for monitoring production metrics, indicating a shift towards more technology-driven operations [7] Group 3: Greenhouse Agriculture - The Green Gobi Facility Agriculture Development Co. has transformed barren land into productive agricultural areas, utilizing innovative sand cultivation methods and government support for infrastructure development [8][10] - The company has diversified its offerings to include a variety of vegetables and tropical fruits, as well as seafood farming, demonstrating adaptability to market demands [10] - The facility has created stable employment for over 160 local residents, contributing to community development [10] Group 4: Camel Farming - The Keping County has shifted from traditional camel farming to a more organized and large-scale model, increasing the camel population to 56,000 and producing 7,500 tons of camel milk annually [13][14] - The camel industry has generated a total industrial chain value of 2 billion yuan, supported by government policies that incentivize infrastructure development and breeding [14] - The cooperative model allows small-scale farmers to benefit from larger enterprises, ensuring better returns and reduced risks in camel farming [14][15]